2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

So BA and Law both have Alex Jackson at 2, with BA also mentioning that the White Sox would like a shot at Jackson too. Maybe one of the 3 does fall. Although with pitchers dropping like flies i'm not so sure I wouldn't just want Jackson since everyone else seems to.

 

Yep, I'm already very wary of pitchers and this season's rash of TJS has not helped. I think I'd take Aiken if he were there but I might prefer Jackson to him even (and I definitely prefer Jackson to Kolek and Rodon). A top 5 pick is so valuable and draft success is so volatile; I'd rather not add the additional risk of pitcher injuries to it.

 

I don't even know who I want, I'll just let the FO figure this one out. What do you think of Freeland? Jackson over him?

 

Jackson is probably my top choice of any prospect in the draft (maybe second after Aiken) so I'd definitely take him over Freeland. I am wary of the arm slot/mechanics questions on Freeland. All sorts of pitchers get hurt, even ones with clean deliveries so I get even more nervous with a guy who might have red flags.

[RammyFanny]

@Clint_BA Rodon 90-93, touching 95 thru 3 vs VT. 2 R, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 6 Ks. 11 swinging strikes. 70 pitches. Favoring slower mid 80s SL

[Guest]

@Clint_BA: Rodon's day done after 5 and Pack up 6-4. 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 Ks on 27 batters faced. Finished w/ 11 swinging strikes. 109 unofficial pitches

 

@Clint_BA: Maintained 91-93 velo thru 5. Integrated high 70s CH into action more later in outing.

[Guest]

Arguello, so yeah...:

 

It seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Marlins were going to draft Tyler Kolek just a few weeks ago but I was just told that the Marlins have been leaning heavily now toward OF'er Alex Jackson. It was described to me as "Kris Bryant heavy" in reference to how the Cubs revved up scouting efforts on the slugging 3B just as everyone was assuming they'd take whoever was left between Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray.

 

Jackson is the best hitter in this year's draft in terms of upside and has a lot of polish because he basically plays year round between the sunny California weather and the countless showcases he's been invited to attend over the past 2 years.

 

I'm told it's all about the bat for the Marlins and that they'd strongly consider taking him 2nd even as a corner outfielder.

 

It also seems to indicate that teams have soured somewhat on Carlos Rodon, who had another pedestrian outing yesterday ( 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 Ks on 27 batters faced. Finished w/ 11 swinging strikes. 109 unofficial pitches). I've actually been told for over a month that he could fall to #4 but it seems more plausible than ever of late and that is because the White Sox are making things interesting as well.

 

If Aiken goes first and Jackson goes 2nd, then the White Sox are left with a choice of Rodon, Tyler Kolek, and...Nick Gordon? I hear that the Sox still very much like Kolek, but may be down on Rodon (and it doesn't help that he's represented by Jerry Reinsdorf nemesis Scott Boras).

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/05/mlb-draft-notes-marlins-ramping-up-scouting-efforts-on-alex-jackson-and-could-sox-pick-nick-gordon/

[Gilby]

"I was told" means "I just read what Keith Law wrote a few days ago"

[davell]

The Marlins do need hitting. I can see them taking Jackson. If Rodon is available at 3, I will be very interested to see if Hahn wants to deal with Boras or not, since they've had plenty of issues with him in the past.

[Gilby]

It will be very interesting to see if Theo takes Kolek if he's available at 4. My guess is they'd just pick Gordon in that scenario.

[davell]

I'm not sure why you wouldn't pay attention to his stuff like this. He definitely knows some scouts. He sits with them when he goes to games. It's chatter. He's not trying to break news with info like this. He talks with quite a few BP guys, they don't treat him like a moron or anything.

 

He's got his issues with math, no doubt. But he brings good scouting info on players quite often. I'll look past the blogger mentality of patting yourself on the back when something winds up being correct. He's got sources, there just not air tight. As very few are anyway.

 

That said......Arguello>>>>>>>>ABTY

[Guest]

It will be very interesting to see if Theo takes Kolek if he's available at 4. My guess is they'd just pick Gordon in that scenario.

 

plz no

[Guest]

Baseball Factory's top 100 prep prospects: http://www.baseballfactory.com/top100/2014/

[Guest]

It will be very interesting to see if Theo takes Kolek if he's available at 4. My guess is they'd just pick Gordon in that scenario.

 

plz no

 

That was be...extremely disappointing.

[Tryptamine]

I wouldn't even necessarily mind Gordon over Kolek if they were only one tier away from each other because of the risk, but Kolek's upside seems to be so much more significant that anything Gordon could ever become that I just can't see any justification for it. You take Kolek and go in knowing he's going to need TJS at some point, You accept it and move on.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

No [expletive] Gordon.

[Guest]

This was linked earlier: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-evansvilles-kyle-freeland/

 

Some highlights:

 

Freeland has thrown 71.8 percent strikes this season and more than two-thirds in every start this season. For context, the major league average strike percentage was 63.4 in 2013. No qualified major league starter in the last decade has thrown strikes at a higher clip than Freeland’s 71.8 percent clip (although Freeland’s rate spans just seven starts compared to a full major league season). The closest are Carlos Silva at 71.4 percent in 2005 and Cliff Lee at 71.1 percent in 2009.

 

All three of Freeland’s fastball components (velocity, life and command) were at least plus. Unlike many college starters, he showed the ability to get swings and misses with his fastball, producing six fastball whiffs on the day. His fastball sat 91-93 mph and touched 94-95, and he held that velocity throughout his nine innings and 97 pitches. Using both a two-seamer and four-seamer, Freeland showed varied fastball movement in every direction, featuring explosive cut and glove-side run on his four-seamer and arm-side run on his two-seamer. He produces downhill plane and sink, pitching in the lower half of the zone on both outer-thirds of the plate. Freeland, who works from the far third-base side of the rubber, creates deception in his delivery, and the ball jumps out of his hand. His fastball was very loud, as his high spin rate produced an audible cutting through the air.

 

...

 

When he came in as a freshman he was 85-87, touching 88,” Carroll said. “He had a thin frame but good shoulders, height and his arm. As recruiting coaches and recruiters you look for arm action, and his arm was so clean, and I knew that the velocity was going to continue to jump as he continued to put on weight, especially with his lower half. That is something he has really made strides in the weight room on is his lower half.”

 

...

 

Freeland is also young for the draft class and will turn 21 less than a month before the draft. Some evaluators do have concerns about his delivery, which has some effort and leaves him spinning toward third base from an arm slot that can be a tick below three-quarters. But delivery concerns can be softened by supreme strike-throwing ability.

[Guest]

Chris Crawford with a % mock draft:

 

No. 01: Houston Astros

Name Position School Slot

Brady Aiken LHP Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego) $7.9221M

Aiken: 45 percent. Carlos Rodon 35 percent. Tyler Kolek 12 percent. Surprise! 8 percent

 

No. 02: Miami Marlins

Name Position School Slot

Tyler Kolek RHP Shepherd HS (Texas) $6.8218M

Kolek 35 percent, Rodon 35 percent, Jackson 30 percent

 

No. 03: Chicago White Sox

Name Position School Slot

Carlos Rodon LHP NC State $5.7125M

Rodon 40 percent, Kolek 30 percent, Aiken 30 percent

 

No. 04: Chicago Cubs

Name Position School Slot

Alex Jackson C/OF Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego) $4.6212M

Jackson 33 percent, Aaron Nola 33 percent, Surprise! 34 percent

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-volume-v-the-percentages-edition/

[davell]

I really think we're going to see one of the big 3 pitchers on the board at 4. Whether its the Astros taking a big under slot at 1, the Marlins taking Jackson at 2, or Rodon's shoulder scaring off all 3. One of the 3 is going to be there.

[A New Era]

I really think we're going to see one of the big 3 pitchers on the board at 4. Whether its the Astros taking a big under slot at 1, the Marlins taking Jackson at 2, or Rodon's shoulder scaring off all 3. One of the 3 is going to be there.

 

Yeah I feel pretty strongly about that also. Question, what is the order of likely hood of each falling, and which one would take if he fell?

 

IMO likely fall, Kolek, Rodon, Aiken in that order. Which one would I take? Honestly I only know what MLB.com's snippet tells me, so not enough to actually scout them. But I'd think I'd want Rodon just because of age/closeness to MLB.

[Guest]

I really think we're going to see one of the big 3 pitchers on the board at 4. Whether its the Astros taking a big under slot at 1, the Marlins taking Jackson at 2, or Rodon's shoulder scaring off all 3. One of the 3 is going to be there.

 

Yeah I feel pretty strongly about that also. Question, what is the order of likely hood of each falling, and which one would take if he fell?

 

IMO likely fall, Kolek, Rodon, Aiken in that order. Which one would I take? Honestly I only know what MLB.com's snippet tells me, so not enough to actually scout them. But I'd think I'd want Rodon just because of age/closeness to MLB.

 

I posted the BA reports on Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Gordon and Freeland on page 47.

[A New Era]

I really think we're going to see one of the big 3 pitchers on the board at 4. Whether its the Astros taking a big under slot at 1, the Marlins taking Jackson at 2, or Rodon's shoulder scaring off all 3. One of the 3 is going to be there.

 

Yeah I feel pretty strongly about that also. Question, what is the order of likely hood of each falling, and which one would take if he fell?

 

IMO likely fall, Kolek, Rodon, Aiken in that order. Which one would I take? Honestly I only know what MLB.com's snippet tells me, so not enough to actually scout them. But I'd think I'd want Rodon just because of age/closeness to MLB.

 

I posted the BA reports on Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Gordon and Freeland on page 47.

 

I read them, sorry I should have mentioned that. I still don't think I know enough. I was an early Kolek lover but I think because of the closeness to MLB is why I'm a bit more in the Rodon camp. Any of them falling to us would be great and we should probably pick whoever does. But Jackson is intriguing enough to make me kinda consider him over HS pitchers.

[Guest]

Matt Garrioch mock draft: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/19/5724288/2014-mlb-mock-draft-version-2

 

1. Rodon

2. Kolek

3. Aiken

4. Jackson

[neely crenshaw]

selfishly I do not want them to take a high school kid at a pick as high as 4. It will take so long and the chance of missing is much greater. Looking back at the 2011 draft, the top HS kids taken are still in A and AA, while many of the college arms are in the league or very close.

I just think if we take a kid that isn't going to be showing up until 2017 or 18 at best I think it's a missed opportunity at this point. I'd like it to be an arm, but looking at Bryant, he could be up right now helping if we choose. He certainly should be here in septemeber and full time next. If we take a near ready guy, we might see him next year-which as badly as we need help all over, seems like the way to go.

There has got to be something there at 4, that is near ready but with a very high ceiling also.

[Guest]

@kileymcd: I don't get the Nola/Leake comps. Leake is a 5'10 #4 starter & Nola has 3 plus pitches. Internet comped Longoria to Randa before draft, too.

[davell]

Unless Rodon falls, there's not. No college bat worth taking at 4.

[Guest]

There has got to be something there at 4, that is near ready but with a very high ceiling also.

 

NEVERMIND ABOUT THE KEY, UNLOCK THE DOOR

[Guest]

@kileymcd: @EricLPauly @tim815 to follow up, just got an email from a scout that said Cubs scouting dir & 2 VPs were in to see Pentecost last week.

 

In his mock last week, Keith Law suggested the Cubs were considering underslotting Max Pentecost at 1.4.