Organization Roster Projections

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, now we have to start the top prospect polls all over again. Thanks, Obama.

[Guest]

Looks like AZPhil broke some news there, by the way. We evidently signed Armando Rivero, a 23 year old RHP out of Cuba. I don't remember a ton about the guy, but I think Badler had him 4th on a list of 5 Cubans that had defected last year. Likely a reliever, but throws up to 98. My guess is we likely spent a couple mill to get him.

 

That sounds like a really intriguing guy:

 

http://orioles-nation.com/2012/01/05/talent-cuba-armando-rivero/

 

How does that get missed?

 

Not sure - if he's already in camp and pitching with the AA guys (which is probably about the level he was projected to start his U.S. career), that means he must have been in the organization for a while. I have no idea how Ben Badler, for how great he is, missed that.

[davell]

Yeah, its odd no one's reported it. Assuming the initial reports were correct anyway. I guess its at least possible that he's 28 and throws upper 80's. But if the reports are true, its a hell of an under the radar signing thats been missed somehow.

[craig]

Teddy, great effort. Good to promote thinking.

 

I tried to compile a list of all the cubs minor leaguers just to get some familiarity with names and thought I'd give this a go, with pitchers for now..... ...

Assuming the MLB roster has: Garza, Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Villanueva, Baker, Wood, Marmol, Russell, Fujikawa, Camp, Bowden, Rondon

 

I'm going to highlight guys.

Red for guys I'm confident will be in rotation at that level.

Blue for guys I'm confident will be in relief.

Green for guys I think might be at different level

Pink for guys I expect on DL

 

AAA (27 pitchers):

 

Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Dallas Beeler I expect he'll still start, but AA wouldn't surprise

Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis

Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi Pretty good shot to make Cubs as 2nd lefty reliever, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley maybe AA?, Esmailin Caridad, Frank Batista

 

AA (21):

 

Starters: Barret Loux, Robert Whitenack, Eric Jokisch I wonder if he might go to Iowa? Over 100 IP at AA already, with 1.1 WHIP., Austin Kirk, Dae-Eun Rhee, Frank Del Valle, Matt Loosen, P.J. Francescon, Kyle Hendricks

Unknown: Ryan Searle, Eduardo Figueroa, Jeffry Antigua

Relievers: Lendy Castillo, David Cales, Zach Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Casey Harman, Tony Zych, A.J. Morris. I'm actually pretty interested in AJ Morris. Sub-1 WHIP at Daytona, low walks, and his pre-surgery scouting suggested good arm/velocity. The numbers at Daytona suggest he might be one of the guys who recovered both the velocity but also the feel/control?, Scott Weismann, Kevin Rhoderick

 

A+ (15):

 

Starters: Michael Jensen, Marcelo Carreno DL, Zach Cates, Hayden Simpson, Ben Wells. Seems fairly likely. But he only pitched 44 innings at Peoria, and is coming off injury. Daytona rotation is possible, but XST is well possible, or Peoria, or perhaps a real controlled pitch-count version of rotation I expect the new Cuban will probably start here, and start, although XST is also well possible.

Unknown: Brett Wallach DL, Kyler Burke I kinda think he'll get another shot at starting...., Yao-Lin Wang

Relievers: Jeffrey Lorick, Hunter Cervenka, Matt Iannazzo, Joseph Zeller, Andrew McKirahan, Sheldon McDonald, Dayan Diaz

 

A (14):

 

Starters: Jose Rosario DL seems likely, Gerardo Concepcion, Juan Paniagua. Very possible, but Daytona wouldn't surprise, either, Pierce Johnson. I think he's at Daytona, Tayler Scott, Jose Arias Maybe DL???

Unknown: Austin Reed. I think he's starting here., Luis Liria, Brian Smith

Relievers: Nathan Dorris, Larry Suarez, Matthew Spencer, Michael Heesch, Eduardo Orozco

 

A-/RK Depth (31):

 

Starters: Ian Dickson, James Pugliese, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood, Paul Blackburn, Felix Pena

Unknown: Su-Min Jung, Steve Perakslis, Hunter Ackerman, Trey Lang. I expect he'll start for a while, Amaury Paulino, Jin-Young Kim, Loiger Padron

Relievers: Rafael Diplan, Jasvir Rakkar, Carlos Martinez-Pumarino, Tyler Bremer, Michael Hamann

 

Starters: Justin Amlung. expect him in Kane rotation., Austin Urban, Joshua Conway, Ryan McNeil, Anthony Prieto

Unknown: Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Ryan Hartman, Daniel Adrian, Corbin Hoffner, Ethan Elias, Chad Martin, David Henrie, Anthony York

 

What do you guys think of the accuracy of the placements by level/category (starter, unknown, reliever)? Who do you think the primary starters at each level will be? Who do you think will be cut in the spring? I'd like it if you guys would critique the level placements realistically, rather than how I did it (ie don't have 25 pitchers at AAA). I don't know if the cubs are just going to make mass cuts or push people down that seem to have had plenty of success at that level.

 

I think your list is really good. I expect there will be a bunch of guys who get released. And a bunch disabled. One of the big keys is whether they want to just take it slow with the new guys, and keep them in XST. Or whether one or more from the Underwood/Maples/Blackburn crew will go to full-A. I doubt it,

[craig]

Hmm. Green doesn't read well at all, does it. O well.

[craig]

A long way to go ... but one thing I'm going to be very curious about is who opens in Daytona's rotation. A lot of arms could be in the mix - Juan Carlos Paniagua, Ben Wells, Jose Rosario, Michael Jensen, Starling Peralta, Pierce Johnson, Marcelo Carreno, PJ Francescon, and a couple more could be in the mix. I mean, I wouldn't necessarily rule out Jeffry Antigua, Zach Cates, Frank Del Valle, and a few others as possible starters.

 

Jumbo - I'd be a tad surprised if they bumped Cabrera down to AA to log innings. Not impossible, but it would be mildly surprising.

 

I'll guess Johnson, Jensen, Paniagua, Burke, and Peralta.

[Guest]

A long way to go ... but one thing I'm going to be very curious about is who opens in Daytona's rotation. A lot of arms could be in the mix - Juan Carlos Paniagua, Ben Wells, Jose Rosario, Michael Jensen, Starling Peralta, Pierce Johnson, Marcelo Carreno, PJ Francescon, and a couple more could be in the mix. I mean, I wouldn't necessarily rule out Jeffry Antigua, Zach Cates, Frank Del Valle, and a few others as possible starters.

 

Jumbo - I'd be a tad surprised if they bumped Cabrera down to AA to log innings. Not impossible, but it would be mildly surprising.

 

I'll guess Johnson, Jensen, Paniagua, Burke, and Peralta.

 

I don't think Peralta will return to the Cubs in time to get stretched out for Daytona (he's relieving right now for Arizona and you know they'll try to keep him as long as possible).

 

I'm guessing Johnson/Jensen/Paniagua/Wells/Cates. I'm assuming Rosario is injured.

[davell]

I'll go with some surprises here. Paniagua stays back in EXST and gets a June callup to Daytona. I'll listen to Sahadev Sharma on that one. I'll predict they start out with Johnson, Jensen, and Concepcion, with a Wells/Wang piggyback and a Reed/Rivero piggyback.

[craig]

Good point that Paniagua may stay extended. I'm guessing that having had him in Dominican camp all winter, though, that they've probably already had opportunity to work on mechanics. So maybe they won't want to hold him back for more tweaking now.

 

Rivera is more likely to stay in XST, I think. He's new, and according to Muskat still hasn't actually even been officially signed. And I think his delivery will need some work. So having not faced real hitters for a long time, I'd think XST might be a good landscape for four things: 1) see live hitters again, 2) get mechanics adjusted, 3) Cubs decide which pitches they want him to actually use this year, and 4) get Cubs-way/enculturated. But, perhaps given how long it's been since he's pitched, perhaps they'll figure it's best to just get him out facing hitters in real games, and just kind of see what he's got? Maybe do the tweaking and refocussing next fall? If he does pitch for a box-score team, I think you're right that Daytona would be the likely place, although Kane might also work.

 

cal, good point on Peralta. If we get him back at all, it will be very late I'm sure. I'm thinking they'll still start him, though, just in a piggy-back pitch-control. So probably start with only one or two innings, like they do with rehab guys.

[CubsWin]

I don't think Peralta will return to the Cubs in time to get stretched out for Daytona (he's relieving right now for Arizona and you know they'll try to keep him as long as possible).

While I definitely agree with this, CR, I just thought it would be interesting/encouraging to note:

 

3 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 HB, 3 BB, 0 K.

 

If they can stash him on their 25-man roster with him pitching like that, more power to them, but he's got to turn it around big time.

 

They've got J.J. Putz, Heath Bell, Brad Ziegler, Tony Sipp, Josh Collmenter, David Hernandez, Matt Reynolds and probably one of Wade Miley/Pat Corbin whoever doesn't make the rotation all ahead of him. If things fall right with injuries or trades, he could stick, but for me the odds are long and getting longer with every poor performance Peralta delivers.

[davell]

I kind of figure we'll trade him to Arizona for someone thats close to a carbon copy of Peralta, that doesn't need to be on the 40 man.

[craig]

I kind of figure we'll trade him to Arizona for someone thats close to a carbon copy of Peralta, that doesn't need to be on the 40 man.

 

If Az tries to send him down, any other team can grab him under the same 25-man roster constraints that presently apply. And if nobody does, he does NOT need to be on the Cubs 40 to reclaim him.

 

So the only way a trade works is if he's cleared the rest of the league, at which point the Cubs will have no 40-man reason to trade him. A trade only makes sense from the Cubs side if they either really believe Arizona will pull Peralta back off waivers and keep him on the 25; or if it's just a straight trade: Cubs like X more than Peralta, but Arizona likes Peralta more than prospect X.

 

There are a lot of weeks before April, so Peralta might turn it around for them, and they might have other guys who get hurt over the next weeks. But for the reasons Cubswin spelled out, I think the Cubs have pretty strong chance that Peralta will become available to us.