teddy

40 man roster decisions for Rule 5 draft protections are due Thursday. Who will we add outside of CJ Edwards? Eligible guys: http://www.thecubreporter.com/rule-5-draft-eligibility Before the AFL, I was thinking it would just be Edwards, with some of the upper level bullpen arms having an outside shot, especially lefties, but not making it in the end. I haven't changed my mind, but Pineyro did pitch pretty well in the AFL so there's that. We have 2 roster spots open and one is necessary for Edwards, so we'll have to make some moves to protect more than 1 other guy. Next tier after Edwards IMO (bullpen arms with decent years in the upper levels): Ivan Pineyro, RHP Frank Batista, RHP Hunter Cervenka, LHP Andrew McKirahan, LHP Not much out there for Pineyro or Cervenka, much less Batista or McKirahan. It'll be up to scouts to decide how much the AFL performance plays into Pineyro's worthiness. Otherwise it seems like the Cubs could actually use more depth at LHP relievers so I'm guessing the 2 lefties have the best shot of being added overall, and AZ Phil seems to think Cervenka is the most likely to be drafted, which makes sense. No idea about anything related to Batista but he's the furthest along in terms of experience. Other upper level guys with decent years statistically: Blake Cooper, RHP P. J. Francescon, RHP Taylor Davis, C Cooper was from the Brett Jackson trade and he had some really good numbers at AA fwiw, and he must be at least worth something since we actually traded for him instead of just straight up outrighting Jackson. It seems like one of his big selling points in the trade was that he wasn't on the 40 man though so I can't see him being added. Other 2 are pretty obvious depth. Guys who were preseason favorites to be added, but had bad years: John Andreoli, OF Jae-Hoon Ha, OF Low level position player prospects: Gioskar Amaya, INF Willson Contreras, C Marco Hernandez, INF Jeffrey Baez, OF Other pitchers: Zach Cates, RHP Tony Zych, RHP Gerardo Concepcion, LHP Starling Peralta, RHP

Why the heck did San Diego leave? Or did Eugene just want a different major league club? Eugene left them. It's actually pretty cool; seems like Cubs were the bell of the ball at every level they had available. Every single team they chose to not renew with wanted them back and every single team they chose to sign a new contract were ones that chose to break it off with their MLB club. Also, I'm pretty sure every single other available milb team outside of the ones clearly connected with the cubs were ones that had their parent club break it off with them, so it seems like every team that broke it off with their club was specifically hoping for the cubs affiliation (myrtle beach, south bend, fort wayne, eugene). In fact, its pretty likely that the Cubs were the entire reason that teams changed in the MWL and NWL at all, and, given how early myrtle beach was announced, a pretty big catalyst for at least some of the FSL changes. Here's some links that I found while I spent way too much time researching the affiliation shuffle: Eugene chose to leave the padres: http://www.gaslampball.com/2014/9/18/6430237/padres-switching-short-season-a-affiliation-to-tri-city-dust-devils If it wasn't already obvious, Cubs were the entire reason Fort Wayne and South Bend were available: http://www.kcchronicle.com/2014/09/18/south-bend-poses-threat-in-cougars-bid-to-stay-with-cubs/a6m03nr/ Myrtle Beach chose to leave the Rangers: http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/2014/09/17/4477999/myrtle-beach-pelicans-reach-agreement.html yay, everyone wants the cubs \:D/

Also found this interesting tidbit about the move to south bend on the same site: http://ballparkdigest.com/201409187734/minor-league-baseball/news/south-bend-cubs-announce-affiliation Might tie-in with the announcements for the new name/logo.

There were never spots open in the NY Penn league this time around when talks opened up on sept 16. Also according to ballpark digest, cubs are moving from Boise to Eugene, and are "waiting on announcement": http://ballparkdigest.com/200905261902/minor-league-baseball/news/affiliate-dance-2012 dunno how reliable the site is but it seems to follow the the affiliate shuffle pretty closely. Also, they apparently called the Daytona-Reds affiliation before it was announced as well.

In the context of the other 4 lefties, where does Del Valle fit in?

Ok so I've made some adjustments, this time trying to fit players within roster limits (12-12-13-13). Keepers are the ones I feel have a strong chance of making it at that level. Cuts are the set of players who I think are anywhere from a lot to somewhat more likely to be cut out of the non-keepers. Here's a list of pitchers I found that were in the upper 4 levels of the minors and on the DL sometime last year, and didn't return to pitch during the milb season: Mateo, Cales, McKirahan, Rosario, Cates. If you guys have anyone I missed or know that one of these players will be ready by the end of spring that's great, but for now I'll assume they will start on the DL. Assuming the MLB roster has: Garza, Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Villanueva, Baker, Wood, Marmol, Russell, Fujikawa, Camp, Bowden, Rondon AAA (27 pitchers): Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Barret Loux Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley, Esmailin Caridad, Frank Batista DL (1): Mateo Keepers (10): Cabrera, Raley, Rusin, Vizcaino, Struck, Loux, McNutt, Dolis, Hatley, Batista Cuts (9): Coleman, Berken, Negrin, Carpenter, Putnam, Weathers, Harris, Caridad, Willis Remaining (7): Jackson, Chapman, Lewis, Parker, Takahashi, Wade, Gutierrez Final Projection: Starters (6): Cabrera, Raley, Rusin, Vizcaino, Struck, Loux Relievers (6): Dolis, Hatley, Batista, McNutt, Jackson, Gutierrez Some pretty hard choices between the NRIs and some of the younger arms. I ended up going with youth in Jackson and Gutierrez since I can't see us DFAing our prospects and making room for any of the NRIs on the 40 man if they don't make it out of spring training. We have plenty of upper level lefties with at least middle relief potential, so I don;'t think Takashi is that necessary anymore. Still, it'd be nice to maybe have 1 or 2 veteran AAAA guys in case of a bunch of early trades or emergencies. I also feel like the NRI guys we have are overall slightly more intriguing than the typical group of NRIs. Nonetheless, it's doubtful any of the choices actually matter much, so in that sense the choices aren't that hard. AA (16): Starters: Dallas Beeler, Eric Jokisch, Austin Kirk, Dae-Eun Rhee, Frank Del Valle, Matt Loosen, Kyle Hendricks Unknown: Jeffry Antigua, Ryan Searle Relievers: , David Cales, Zach Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Casey Harman, Tony Zych, A.J. Morris, Kevin Rhoderick DL (1): Cales Keepers (12): Beeler, Jokisch, Kirk, Rhee, Del Valle, Loosen, Hendricks, Antigua, Searle, Rosscup, Zych, Rhoderick Cuts (3): Schlitter, Harman, Morris Remaining (0): Final Projection: Starters (7): Beeler, Jokisch, Kirk, Rhee, Del Valle, Loosen, Hendricks Relievers (5): Antigua, Rosscup, Zych, Rhoderick, Searle There were probably about 8 guys I'd like to have up here based on last year's performance, but were moved down/cut for room. Schlitter and Morris both had nice years but are also fairly old. Harman is a bit redundant given the other upper level lefties with higher ceilings (I think). I probably have too many starters too, but maybe it can work? Overall at AA and AAA, I feel like there's a good amount of depth. Only a couple of real impact prospects, but I think every single one of these upper level guys have realistic potential to be at least decent middle relievers/5th starters. Not too exciting overall, but it's still nice to know we probably won't have any Seth Mclung/Rodrigo Lopez/etc. types making tons of appearances in our system. A+ (18): Starters: Michael Jensen, Marcelo Carreno, Ben Wells, P.J. Francescon, Robert Whitenack, Yeiper Castillo Unknown: Brett Wallach, Kyler Burke, Yao-Lin Wang, Eduardo Figueroa Relievers: Jeffrey Lorick, Hunter Cervenka, Joseph Zeller, Andrew McKirahan, Sheldon McDonald, Dayan Diaz, Scott Weismann, Lendy Castillo DL (1): McKirahan Keepers (10): Jensen, Carreno, Wells, Francescon, Whitenack, Burke, Wang, Searle, Figueroa, Cervenka, L Castillo Cuts (2): Lorick, Wallach Remaining (5): Y Castillo, Zeller, McDonald, Diaz, Weismann Final Projection: Starters (6): Jensen, Carreno, Wells, Francescon, Whitenack, Y Castillo Relievers (7): Burke, Wang, L Castillo, Figueroa, Cervenka, Diaz, Weismann Mostly came down to Weismann, Zeller, and McDonald for the last cuts, and I really have no info on them (anyone know if they have any upside at all?). Weismann's the youngest and reached AA (for like 2 games), but had worse numbers. Obviously a pretty inconsequential choice, though. Francescon, Searle, and Figueroa are guys I'd most rather have at AA. I'm guessing Burke gets some starts too based on last year, and Wang could be looked at again too. Edit: changed lendy and searle A (16): Starters: Jose Rosario, Gerardo Concepcion, Juan Paniagua, Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, Jose Arias, Zach Cates Unknown: Austin Reed, Luis Liria, Brian Smith Relievers: Nathan Dorris, Larry Suarez, Matthew Spencer, Michael Heesch, Eduardo Orozco, Matt Iannazzo DL (2): Rosario, Cates Keepers (6): Concepcion, Paniagua, Johnson, Scott, Arias, Reed Cuts (1): Suarez Remaining (7): Smith, Dorris, Spencer, Heesch, Orozco, Iannazzo, Liria Final Projection: Starters (6): Concepcion, Paniagua, Johnson, Scott, Arias, Reed Relievers (7): Liria, Smith, Dorris, Spencer, Heesch, Orozco, Iannazzo There's a bit of a roster crunch at higher levels, but here it's pretty fluid. There's plenty of possibilities here for cuts/promotion/demotions. Spencer is probably an easy cut in reality. I could even see Liria cut, depending on how many guys they plan to carry in EXT and how interesting the lower round 2012 players are. Maples or Blackburn could be easy replacements, or the two guys on the DL. Paniagua and Johnson could definitely move quickly, but I'll put them here to start. A-/RK Depth (33): Starters: Ian Dickson, James Pugliese, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood, Paul Blackburn, Felix Pena Unknown: Su-Min Jung, Steve Perakslis, Hunter Ackerman, Trey Lang, Amaury Paulino, Jin-Young Kim, Loiger Padron, Hayden Simpson Relievers: Rafael Diplan, Jasvir Rakkar, Carlos Martinez-Pumarino, Tyler Bremer, Michael Hamann Starters: Justin Amlung, Austin Urban, Joshua Conway, Ryan McNeil, Anthony Prieto Unknown: Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Ryan Hartman, Daniel Adrian, Corbin Hoffner, Ethan Elias, Chad Martin, David Henrie, Anthony York Hayden Simpson might be out of place, but I feel he could use some individual instruction or something.

heh, you must be psychic. Just finished a long post about the AAA roster. And yeah I already moved Whitenack down and dropped Hayden Simpson to the unknown section. What are the chances Simpson starts the year in mesa?

Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Dallas Beeler Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley Looking at my AAA list specifically, do you guys see any guys other than Beeler actually moving down? Or do you think it will be pretty much all cuts at that level? Personally, I can't see anyone else getting demoted. Cabrera, Raley, Rusin, Vizcaino, Struck, McNutt, Dolis, and Hatley all seem like locks to not get cut due to age and upside. With 12 pitchers opening the season, that's 4 left for the roster. There's 7 NRIs in my list: Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, and Cory Wade. At most, I think 2 of these guys will make it (in lieu of Bowden and Rondon), but I think it's much more likely 0 make it. Obviously, some of these guys will be cut, but it's hard to say how many. I think they'll want to hang on to Takahashi, who also has the highest chance to make it, because he's a lefty. Other than that, they all have ups and downs in terms of age, K/BB peripherals, past MLB success, and I don't know much about their upside/former prospect status. In practice, how many of these NRI guys typically stay after the spring when there is a logjam like there is with the Cubs? I haven't really paid attention in the past to these kinds of things. The other relievers appear to be Mateo, Weathers, Harris, Gutierrez, Jackson, and Willis. Weathers seems like an easy cut. I don't know how Mateo's doing, but he was injured last year, so maybe he'll be DL'd to start? I don't know anything about Harris or Gutierrez, nor much about Willis' current status. Is Jackson a likely cut candidate, or does his former status give him a bigger cushion even if he's not impressive this spring? In starting candidates, we have Coleman, Berken, Negrin, and Beeler. Coleman is an easy cut, and I'd assume Berken too, though I don't know much about him. Negrin too, though maybe he's loaned to the Mexican leagues again? I only added Beeler over Loux/Jokisch because he is on the current Iowa roster FWIW. Anyway, Beeler's most likely dropping to AA, but that just brings Loux up, and neither is likely to be cut. So let's say Coleman, Berken, Negrin, Mateo, and Weathers don't appear on any of the cubs 4 milb rosters to start the season, and add Takahashi and Loux to the guys that make it, Beeler down to AA. Then 10 pitchers--Harris, Gutierrez, Jackson, Willis, Carpenter, Chapman, Lewis, Parker, Putnam, and Wade--are fighting for 2 spots. Obviously it'll depend on the spring, but right now, I'll take Jackson and Chapman based on age and upside/peripherals. EDIT: have to add Esmailin Caridad/Frank Batista to the list of probables. I'd guess Caridad has a good chance to be cut, but Batista complicates things. What do you guys think?

I tried to compile a list of all the cubs minor leaguers just to get some familiarity with names and thought I'd give this a go, with pitchers for now. I mostly categorized players based on prior experience/results at the different levels, and sprinkled in whatever general knowledge I had about them (which is far less than the regular posters on this board). Also, if I felt a player should be at a certain level, I didn't give much attention to roster limits, which leads to things like having 28 pitchers in my AAA list. I separated the pitchers into 3 groups for each level: starters are primarily pitchers that started a good chunk of their appearances, not necessarily what they project to be in the majors (though they should have at least a tiny shot to be starters in the majors, assuming they make it there); unknowns are prospects who have a mixed history (like Trey McNutt, who is is projected to be a reliever, but does have past success as a starter) or who I just don't know enough about/don't have much data on (like a lot of young 2012 HS draftees); relievers are the pitchers that have been, and project to be, relievers, to my knowledge. I'm not entirely sure which of these pitchers are/will be on the DL either. Assuming the MLB roster has: Garza, Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Villanueva, Baker, Wood, Marmol, Russell, Fujikawa, Camp, Bowden, Rondon AAA (27 pitchers): Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Dallas Beeler Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley, Esmailin Caridad, Frank Batista AA (21): Starters: Barret Loux, Robert Whitenack, Eric Jokisch, Austin Kirk, Dae-Eun Rhee, Frank Del Valle, Matt Loosen, P.J. Francescon, Kyle Hendricks Unknown: Ryan Searle, Eduardo Figueroa, Jeffry Antigua Relievers: Lendy Castillo, David Cales, Zach Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Casey Harman, Tony Zych, A.J. Morris, Scott Weismann, Kevin Rhoderick A+ (15): Starters: Michael Jensen, Marcelo Carreno, Zach Cates, Hayden Simpson, Ben Wells Unknown: Brett Wallach, Kyler Burke, Yao-Lin Wang Relievers: Jeffrey Lorick, Hunter Cervenka, Matt Iannazzo, Joseph Zeller, Andrew McKirahan, Sheldon McDonald, Dayan Diaz A (14): Starters: Jose Rosario, Gerardo Concepcion, Juan Paniagua, Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, Jose Arias Unknown: Austin Reed, Luis Liria, Brian Smith Relievers: Nathan Dorris, Larry Suarez, Matthew Spencer, Michael Heesch, Eduardo Orozco A-/RK Depth (31): Starters: Ian Dickson, James Pugliese, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood, Paul Blackburn, Felix Pena Unknown: Su-Min Jung, Steve Perakslis, Hunter Ackerman, Trey Lang, Amaury Paulino, Jin-Young Kim, Loiger Padron Relievers: Rafael Diplan, Jasvir Rakkar, Carlos Martinez-Pumarino, Tyler Bremer, Michael Hamann Starters: Justin Amlung, Austin Urban, Joshua Conway, Ryan McNeil, Anthony Prieto Unknown: Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Ryan Hartman, Daniel Adrian, Corbin Hoffner, Ethan Elias, Chad Martin, David Henrie, Anthony York What do you guys think of the accuracy of the placements by level/category (starter, unknown, reliever)? Who do you think the primary starters at each level will be? Who do you think will be cut in the spring? I'd like it if you guys would critique the level placements realistically, rather than how I did it (ie don't have 25 pitchers at AAA). I don't know if the cubs are just going to make mass cuts or push people down that seem to have had plenty of success at that level. EDIT: realized I missed 5 players: Esmailin Caridad, Anthony York, Frank Batista, Kevin Rhoderick, Loiger Padron