Cubs (Reportedly) Make Offer to Francisco Liriano

[davell]

From a supply/demand standpoint, it's slim pickings. Most teams are in need and few guys that are FA are upper echelon types. We're not going after Greinke or Sanchez. Thats pretty obvious. Edwin? No clue. But after that, the grouo is Marcum, McCarthy, Dempster, Haren, Liriano, and Villanueva. Because we're not after Lohse or Kuroda, nor should we be. If we get two from that group somehow, it's a nice job.

[SouthSideRyan]

After you disquailfy all the best pitchers, yes it's pretty good that we got one that isn't one of the best.

[Clem Fandango]

The Cubs have money and a desperate need for capable arms to fill out the rotation. I don't see how this would be a bad thing.

 

I don't know that it's bad, but it's probably the worst of the available options.

 

This. Liriano is fine, but there are better options available. I kinda view him as a consolation prize for missing out on McCarthy or Marcum. Nice to have at the end of the day, but not what you really wanted.

 

Understandable. But if there are better options, it also means there is a bigger market for those options. The most difficult part in getting guys like Marcum or McCarthy to come here is not really the money. It's trying to convince them to sign for just one year while also just being a 3-month rental. They can sign where they want for one year and go to a good team. So, it can be a tough sell.

 

That's why it's too bad Haren was injured. It was perfect.

 

The Cubs wouldn't be actively trying to sign any of those guys to one year deals. It'd be a waste of time to even try. I can't imagine the Cubs would be offering anything less than a 2 year guaranteed contract to McCarthy or Marcum. For their talents I'd have to assume they may attempt a 2 year w/ 3rd option year at a minimum. That style of contract seems to make the most sense for the Cubs, IMO. They can bounce back this season and have an attractive pitcher with 2 possible years left of control, or they struggle this year, bounce back the following year and then you've got qa guy who could still be under control for another season (or could be let go minimizing the risk of obtaining that pitcher). Or they're terrible both years and you cut ties after the 2nd year of the experiment. From the Cubs standpoint, that type of deal makes the most sense with the way they're building the team right now. If they're handing out 1 year deals those are going to filler like Joe Blanton who provide no remarkable upside whatsoever.

[mookie]

After you disquailfy all the best pitchers, yes it's pretty good that we got one that isn't one of the best.

[Backtobanks]

I Think the FO ought to get down to the business of adding a SP that will be around when the Cubs might be a decent team. There are names like Bauer, Hellickson, Masterson, Delgado, etc. that are being put out there as available. Adding filler like Liriano, Marcum, McCarthy, etc. just keeps perpetuating the problem because it likely that Garza plus Liriano/Marcum/McCarthy will be traded at the deadline. Making a deal for someone like Hellickson gives you a starting four of Shark, Hellickson, Viscaino, and Wood for 2014 and beyond.

Use the money to fill some of the other gaping holes on the team.

[davell]

After you disquailfy all the best pitchers, yes it's pretty good that we got one that isn't one of the best.

You're right, lets give Sanchez 7/100. That'll work out just swell I'm sure!

[Tryptamine]

After you disquailfy all the best pitchers, yes it's pretty good that we got one that isn't one of the best.

You're right, lets give Sanchez 7/100. That'll work out just swell I'm sure!

 

As bad as this is, I think I almost prefer it to the 6/150 Greinke wants. Not that I'd be even remotely interested in either.

[davell]

Honestly, Greinke at 6/150 doesn't seem all that horrible to me. Out of the top 10 FA altogether, outside of Upton possibly, the asking price wouldn't scare me. He handled LA alright anyway. That said, I doubt we'll even give him a sniff.

[SouthSideRyan]

After you disquailfy all the best pitchers, yes it's pretty good that we got one that isn't one of the best.

You're right, lets give Sanchez 7/100. That'll work out just swell I'm sure!

 

Do you think when our window opens up in 2016 that there will be a good, young SP signing a 4/40 deal or something?

[Guest]

After you disquailfy all the best pitchers, yes it's pretty good that we got one that isn't one of the best.

You're right, lets give Sanchez 7/100. That'll work out just swell I'm sure!

 

Do you think when our window opens up in 2016 that there will be a good, young SP signing a 4/40 deal or something?

I'm not in favor of signing any pitcher to a seven year deal. Heck, one of the smartest non-moves Epstein made in Boston was resisting the temptation to re-sign Pedro to a long term deal.

[KingCubsFan]

I Think the FO ought to get down to the business of adding a SP that will be around when the Cubs might be a decent team. There are names like Bauer, Hellickson, Masterson, Delgado, etc. that are being put out there as available. Adding filler like Liriano, Marcum, McCarthy, etc. just keeps perpetuating the problem because it likely that Garza plus Liriano/Marcum/McCarthy will be traded at the deadline. Making a deal for someone like Hellickson gives you a starting four of Shark, Hellickson, Viscaino, and Wood for 2014 and beyond.

Use the money to fill some of the other gaping holes on the team.

I agree, it would nice to add a long-term solution to the rotation. I think Hellickson is overrated though (then again, it may just be Tampa's philosophy to pitch to contact and not care about K's, given Garza's massive spike when he got here).

[Backtobanks]

I Think the FO ought to get down to the business of adding a SP that will be around when the Cubs might be a decent team. There are names like Bauer, Hellickson, Masterson, Delgado, etc. that are being put out there as available. Adding filler like Liriano, Marcum, McCarthy, etc. just keeps perpetuating the problem because it likely that Garza plus Liriano/Marcum/McCarthy will be traded at the deadline. Making a deal for someone like Hellickson gives you a starting four of Shark, Hellickson, Viscaino, and Wood for 2014 and beyond.

Use the money to fill some of the other gaping holes on the team.

I agree, it would nice to add a long-term solution to the rotation. I think Hellickson is overrated though (then again, it may just be Tampa's philosophy to pitch to contact and not care about K's, given Garza's massive spike when he got here).

 

I just used Hellickson as an example (any of the other names would have worked too). My point is that I think the FO needs to start filling some holes for the long term. Not only is there a good chance Garza plus one of the FA pitchers gets traded at the deadline, but Soriano, DeJesus, Camp (if resigned), and Marmol could be gone by then (or sooner). That certainly leaves a ton of holes to start filling for 2014 and beyond.

[davell]

After you disquailfy all the best pitchers, yes it's pretty good that we got one that isn't one of the best.

You're right, lets give Sanchez 7/100. That'll work out just swell I'm sure!

 

Do you think when our window opens up in 2016 that there will be a good, young SP signing a 4/40 deal or something?

No, not at all. But when our window opens in either 2014 or 2015, we'll have enough young guys and enough top end talent in the minors to trade for the Justin Uptons, David Prices, Asdrubal Cabreras, Jeremy Hellicksons of the world that are available that offseason. Hence, the "wave of 26-27 year olds" comment from our group. I'd expect at least two deals, maybe more, that offseason.

[rawaction]

Yeah if the Cubs add 2 arms, one of them needs to be a long term solution. One to trade for farm system purposes and the other for the future. A guy like Bauer, the A's arms, Tampa's arms is a must have...just like Rizzo was last year. Not realistic to expect major pieces of a team all put in place in one off-season between minor callups and FA signings. I think an arm and bat need added to the nucleus of Castro, Rizzo, Shark, etc.

[Guest]

At some point, the fact that the Cubs gave Paul Maholm, a buy low guy who never had very good stuff, a 1+option deal and then traded him at his peak value, got transformed into "every FA SP the Cubs sign for fewer than 17 years is just gonna get dealt at the deadline". There's a continuum there, and signing someone like McCarthy, Marcum, Liriano, etc. is definitely not a guarantee that they are going to be sold off for prospects at the first sign of individual success.

[Backtobanks]

At some point, the fact that the Cubs gave Paul Maholm, a buy low guy who never had very good stuff, a 1+option deal and then traded him at his peak value, got transformed into "every FA SP the Cubs sign for fewer than 17 years is just gonna get dealt at the deadline". There's a continuum there, and signing someone like McCarthy, Marcum, Liriano, etc. is definitely not a guarantee that they are going to be sold off for prospects at the first sign of individual success.

 

It may not be a guarantee, but it certainly looks like the MO of our FO. If your target date to be a good team is 2015 (which seems to be what they're shooting for), then keeping someone like Marcum/McCarthy/Liriano through 2014 doesn't make sense if someone offers some decent prospects.

[Guest]

At some point, the fact that the Cubs gave Paul Maholm, a buy low guy who never had very good stuff, a 1+option deal and then traded him at his peak value, got transformed into "every FA SP the Cubs sign for fewer than 17 years is just gonna get dealt at the deadline". There's a continuum there, and signing someone like McCarthy, Marcum, Liriano, etc. is definitely not a guarantee that they are going to be sold off for prospects at the first sign of individual success.

 

It may not be a guarantee, but it certainly looks like the MO of our FO. If your target date to be a good team is 2015 (which seems to be what they're shooting for), then keeping someone like Marcum/McCarthy/Liriano through 2014 doesn't make sense if someone offers some decent prospects.

 

It looks like the MO.....based on Paul Maholm. And even if the "target date to be a good team" is 2015, you would absolutely have interest in a 3 year deal with a SP and keeping him for the duration so you aren't replacing a rotation cog right when you're planning to be good. This what I mean, taking a single decision and jumping through logical hoops to fit every move afterwards into the same category is silly.

[Guest]

At some point, the fact that the Cubs gave Paul Maholm, a buy low guy who never had very good stuff, a 1+option deal and then traded him at his peak value, got transformed into "every FA SP the Cubs sign for fewer than 17 years is just gonna get dealt at the deadline". There's a continuum there, and signing someone like McCarthy, Marcum, Liriano, etc. is definitely not a guarantee that they are going to be sold off for prospects at the first sign of individual success.

 

It may not be a guarantee, but it certainly looks like the MO of our FO. If your target date to be a good team is 2015 (which seems to be what they're shooting for), then keeping someone like Marcum/McCarthy/Liriano through 2014 doesn't make sense if someone offers some decent prospects.

You can draw an awful lot of lines through a single point of data.

[USSoccer]

No, not at all. But when our window opens in either 2014 or 2015, we'll have enough young guys and enough top end talent in the minors to trade for the Justin Uptons, David Prices, Asdrubal Cabreras, Jeremy Hellicksons of the world that are available that offseason. Hence, the "wave of 26-27 year olds" comment from our group. I'd expect at least two deals, maybe more, that offseason.

 

It's pretty stupid to assume that everything in our system will break the way we want it to, to the point where we have both a wave of ML ready guys we want to keep AND a bunch of top talent to trade for hypothetically available guys in 3 years.

[Sammy Sofa]

No, not at all. But when our window opens in either 2014 or 2015, we'll have enough young guys and enough top end talent in the minors to trade for the Justin Uptons, David Prices, Asdrubal Cabreras, Jeremy Hellicksons of the world that are available that offseason. Hence, the "wave of 26-27 year olds" comment from our group. I'd expect at least two deals, maybe more, that offseason.

 

It's pretty stupid to assume that everything in our system will break the way we want it to, to the point where we have both a wave of ML ready guys we want to keep AND a bunch of top talent to trade for hypothetically available guys in 3 years.

 

No way, it totally makes perfect sense. It's how the Royals get to sleep every night.

[USSoccer]

I mean, you might as well say "and all the season ticket holders will get a magical pony".

 

If that's seriously the plan, we could have saved a lot of trouble by just hiring Dayton Moore to play farm system roulette for the next 5 years.

[davell]

Well, every year there are impact players available for trade. And our FO has certainly had success in both developing players and in building enough of a system up to trade from as well. If that isn't the plan, then Hoyers comment about a wave of 26-27 years olds arriving the year we expect to contend had no meaning and he wouldn't have said it. Everyone here wanted a good FO and now we have one. Why not take them at their word, let them do their [expletive] and see what happens? It's not they've torn down some [expletive] juggernaut here.

[USSoccer]

Well, every year there are impact players available for trade. And our FO has certainly had success in both developing players and in building enough of a system up to trade from as well. If that isn't the plan, then Hoyers comment about a wave of 26-27 years olds arriving the year we expect to contend had no meaning and he wouldn't have said it. Everyone here wanted a good FO and now we have one. Why not take them at their word, let them do their [expletive] and see what happens? It's not they've torn down some [expletive] juggernaut here.

 

You're missing the point. Do you really believe that their player development is going to be so flawless that we'll have a wave of 26 year olds AND a bunch of tradeable blue chippers ready to go in 3 years?

 

I'm going to save you the thought time: No. That's not going to happen. I'd bet anything short of my life on them not having a pile of really good young players breaking through all at once and a pile more available to deal.

 

And the thing about our FO's success: only really one of those guys has that track record. And Epstein basically leveraged an immense financial advantage to build a system that complimented the really fricking good players that were already there and had already won a title. He didn't build anything from scratch.

[Guest]

I don't think taking a super literalist interpretation of that quote to the extent where the plan is to by and large ignore the MLB roster until a specific offseason when you make several impact deals in addition to having impact graduations is the correct(nor desired) plan.

[davell]

USS: This team has 3 building blocks, which all should continue to improve(Shark is arguable, in that aspect). It also likely has a 2B, backend SP in Wood, probably a C, and possibly a midrotation SP in Garza. Jackson has a chance at becoming a longterm CF and Vizcaino has a solid chance at becoming a backend bullpen guy at worst, frontline SP at best. If we use 2014 or 2015 as the "go for it year", all of these guys should be better than they are currently. Other than Garza anyway. At any rate, we'll need a legit TOR pitcher, probably another midrotation guy, and a 3B, with 2 or 3 possible OFers. 2 of these position players need to be middle of the order bats. The higher levels of our system aren't stocked, by any means. But I'd feel comfortable in saying by 2015 one of Soler or Baez is a legit MLB starter and is becoming one of those middle of the order bats. We have the other one, Almora, And everything else in the lower levels of our system, which is substantial, plus the 2013 draft and IFA class, the 2014 draft and IFA class, anything we've dealt for, all to use as currency. I think that it will be more than enough to deal for a middle of the order bat and a TOR SP. Anything else can be filled in thru FA and we should still have plenty of a system left as well. We will have also dodged the Reds best years, likely be watching the Dodgers get too old to keep throwing cash around to bandaid, and we'll be dealing with the Cards and Nats most likely, with more payroll flexibility than either.