BA's 2012 Northwest League Top 20 List

[davell]

Kyle, just read(yeah, I know you already have) his bio from BA Raisin just posted in the 2nd post of this thread. Sorry, but that's enough for me to have real hope for a prospect and not lump him in as generic.

[toonsterwu]

I'm admittedly skimming through the discussion, so I might miss some stuff.

 

On the whole, I actually agree with Kyle ... sort of. Amaya needs to prove it at a higher level, and the chances of Torreyes/Bruno becoming ... if not special, above average, is still probably slim, so on the whole, a lot of organizations can probably look at their 2nd basemen and say that hey, we've got somewhat similar guys.

 

On the somewhat flip side, I do think Amaya has a chance to be above average to good at 2nd, particularly if the defense improves at 2nd. I'm surprised at Glassey's comments that he thinks Amaya's defense at 2nd is better than Bruno (but part of that could be that Bruno shifted around so much, impacting perspective on his ability there). Was it Callis a month or so ago that gave a "positive outlook" on Amaya? If he reaches said positive outlook, he would be a good defensive 2nd basemen, with some pop, some base running potential, and an ability to hit for a solid average. At 2nd base, that'd be nice, particularly if he can fit at the top of the order.

 

I've noted before that Torreyes is going to have to be a "prove it guy", and really, I lump Bruno in a similar boat. I've said before that I like Bruno a lot (and have noted personal bias as a UVA fan), but I've also said that Bruno is going to have to be a "prove it at each level" guy because he's a similar guy as Torreyes. Both have shown excellent hit tools, Bruno in college and this year, (and one could argue, Bruno's hit tool may be better than Torreyes), but the numbers don't mean a ton as it's the NWL. I think he'd be an above average to plus defender at 2nd, and I think he has average power (although more doubles than HR power). But we're really going to have to see how his hit tool plays up against tougher pitching to gauge whether or not he has MLB potential, and particularly, MLB starting potential. I think he does, but only time will tell on that.

 

I sort of leave Watkins out of the mix for my top 3, but if you buy his summer numbers as more reflective of his ability, then he's in the mix. But he's also another "generic" guy.

 

The other guy that could potentially be ... something more than "generic" might be Zeke DeVoss since he probably has the most speed of the foursome. Of course, there's a whole litany of guys who could end up at 2nd, including Marco Hernandez, but that would just extend the discussion way too far for now.

Edited September 29, 2012 by toonsterwu

[Guest]

Kyle,

 

If I ask really nicely, would you be amenable to keeping your reminders about the worthlessness of most prospects outside of the minor league forum? It's fine that you're currently absorbed by the general lack of hope of any given prospect making an impact - it just isn't what those of us who frequent this forum want to continuously talk about when there are plenty of chances to do so in the general baseball forums.

 

Feel free to participate here, but please keep that in mind.

 

Thanks

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think "worthlessness" is a mischaracterization of what I said, but since you asked nicely, yes, I can promise that.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Joe R (Newport News, VA): John Kruk didn't have a lot of power for a major-league first baseman. Will Vogelbach have more power than Kruk did?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Yeah, I do think he'll have a little more power. Maybe lefthanded Billy Butler is a better comp. Just not Prince Fielder.

 

If Butler's the best comp, we should probably either try and trade him to an AL team as soon as they show interest. If he were an OF or 3B, it would be super, but for a 1st Baseman, Butler's mid .800s OPS is by no means worth the defensive shortcomings.

[Guest]

I think this shows that Vogelbach doesn't have an appropriate MLB comp. He doesn't project to be as good as Prince Fielder but he could be better than a lot of other players who have similar body types to Vogelbach and Fielder (such as Kruk and Butler).

[Guest]

Maybe one of all those guys you mentioned would've developed into something worth a damn if they weren't in an awful organization.

 

I mentioned two who did turn out worth a little. That's kind of my point. You want to have about dozen of these guys in your system all the time because 1 or 2 will turn into Ryan Theriot or Darwin Barney, but I don't see anything in any of those guys that puts them beyond that, except *maybe* Torreyes who is an fascinating mix of strengths and weaknesses.

 

How does that refute my point that the guys you listed were "developed" in an organization with an embarrassingly bad approach to player development, which is not the case with the current Chicago Cubs?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe one of all those guys you mentioned would've developed into something worth a damn if they weren't in an awful organization.

 

I mentioned two who did turn out worth a little. That's kind of my point. You want to have about dozen of these guys in your system all the time because 1 or 2 will turn into Ryan Theriot or Darwin Barney, but I don't see anything in any of those guys that puts them beyond that, except *maybe* Torreyes who is an fascinating mix of strengths and weaknesses.

 

How does that refute my point that the guys you listed were "developed" in an organization with an embarrassingly bad approach to player development, which is not the case with the current Chicago Cubs?

 

It's a valid point, so I wasn't trying to refute it.

[Guest]

Maybe one of all those guys you mentioned would've developed into something worth a damn if they weren't in an awful organization.

 

I mentioned two who did turn out worth a little. That's kind of my point. You want to have about dozen of these guys in your system all the time because 1 or 2 will turn into Ryan Theriot or Darwin Barney, but I don't see anything in any of those guys that puts them beyond that, except *maybe* Torreyes who is an fascinating mix of strengths and weaknesses.

 

How does that refute my point that the guys you listed were "developed" in an organization with an embarrassingly bad approach to player development, which is not the case with the current Chicago Cubs?

 

It's a valid point, so I wasn't trying to refute it.

 

Ah. Carry on.

[illiniguy]

Joe R (Newport News, VA): John Kruk didn't have a lot of power for a major-league first baseman. Will Vogelbach have more power than Kruk did?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Yeah, I do think he'll have a little more power. Maybe lefthanded Billy Butler is a better comp. Just not Prince Fielder.

 

If Butler's the best comp, we should probably either try and trade him to an AL team as soon as they show interest. If he were an OF or 3B, it would be super, but for a 1st Baseman, Butler's mid .800s OPS is by no means worth the defensive shortcomings.

Good lord :banghead: no we shouldn't trade him right away.

[rawaction]

Isn't every prospect that isn't a 4-5 tool player a "prove it at each level" or "generic" type of player? Obviously, those 4-5 tool hitters are going to be given the benefit of the doubt most times. They are going to get promoted or fast tracked to the majors. They aren't typically early round draft picks who the team is counting on in the future.

 

And just because a prospect fails to make it, doesn't mean he was "generic". Eric Patterson was a top 2-3 round talent that fell to the 8th and put up a .940 OPS in his first season of pro baseball. LeMahieu and Flaherty were 6'3"+ middle IF prospects who projected to add weight and potentially put up elite power numbers from the 2B position. Ronny Cedeno was pretty highly regarded and has stuck around the majors for a while because of his defense and offensive potential from the middle IF. I wouldn't call any of those 4 "generic". As for the current guys, Watkins is probably "generic" in the grand scheme of things. He wasn't highly drafted or regarded, but he's shown that he can get on base and has increased his power output at each level. I would say the same for Bruno, though he hasn't shown it at each level, he was one of the best players in his league this year. Torreyes and Amaya are far from generic though. Torreyes was the youngest player in his league the last couple years, he tore the cover off the ball at 18 in the MWL last year. He was unlucky this year, but his ability to put the ball in play is far from ordinary. Amaya was also just 19 this year, walked in almost 10% of his PAs, hit 8 HRs at 175lbs, after hitting 0 in the DSL and AZL.

[davell]

I agree that Watkins is the most ordinary of the group, although I do think he's likely to have a long MLB career. But while he wasn't a high pick, by any stretch(17-18th rd?) The Cubs did give him over a 500k bonus. So they obviously saw something there, to their credit at this stage.

[toonsterwu]

Raisin is probably more knowledgeable on this than I am, but I thought Watkins fell solely because of his commitment to Witchita State. I could be wrong, but I vaguely remember something along the lines that, had teams known he wouldn't have gone to college, he might've gone in the top 10 rounds (or I could be mixing it up with someone else).

[Guest]

Rizzo is going to be #5 in the PCL, btw. :)

 

 

5. ANTHONY RIZZO 1B

IOWA CUBS

AGE: 22. B-T: L-L. HT.: 6-3. WT.: 220. DRAFTED: HS—Parkland, Fla. ’07 (6/Red Sox).

No. 5 on this list in 2011, before the Padres traded him to the Cubs for Andrew Cashner, Rizzo has hit .336/.405/.670 in two PCL stints. Unlike a year ago, when he was unable to carry that momentum after a big league callup, he continued to mash after summoned to Chicago.

Rizzo hits with a low hand position that tends to lead to an uppercut swing, but that hasn’t diminished his ability to hit for average and also creates easy plus power. He controls the strike zone very well, has excellent strength in his forearms and wrists and has a compact stroke. He’s a below-average runner but is good around the bag and has soft hands.

[Guest]

That means there are two other Cubs between the FSL, SL and PCL. Szczur in the FSL and Vitters in the PCL?

[Guest]

That means there are two other Cubs between the FSL, SL and PCL. Szczur in the FSL and Vitters in the PCL?

I don't know - I just have the magainze. That only has the top 10 in each league.

[davell]

I think Alcantara makes the FSL list over Szczur. Vitters is my guess for the other one.

[Guest]

I think Alcantara makes the FSL list over Szczur. Vitters is my guess for the other one.

Oh, good call. Forgot about Alcantara. No doubt he makes it.

[davell]

Actually, I'm wrong. BA is obviously high on Villanueva, he's got to be one of them.

[Guest]

I'd be surprised if Vitters makes it. I think it'll be Villanueva and Alcantara.

[davell]

Oh, and even with the struggles, I think Brett is in the PCL top 20. Especially since Callis said he's got a shot at the top 100 still.