BA's 2012 Northwest League Top 20 List

[videographer]

Here is the preliminary list of top 20 prospects with scouting reports and a chat to follow later in the day.

 

NORTHWEST LEAGUE

TOP 20 PROSPECTS

1. Mike Zunino, c, Everett (Mariners)

2. Dan Vogelbach, 1b, Boise (Cubs)

3. Victor Sanchez, rhp, Everett (Mariners)

4. Joe Ross, rhp, Eugene (Padres)

5. Tom Murphy, c, Tri-City (Rockies)

6. Marco Hernandez, ss, Boise (Cubs)

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3b, Boise (Cubs)

8. C.J. Edwards, rhp, Spokane (Rangers)

9. Gioskar Amaya, 2b, Boise (Cubs)

10. Patrick Kievelhan, 3b, Everett (Mariners)

11. Mac Williamson, of, Salem-Keizer (Giants)

12. Rosell Herrera, ss/3b, Tri-City (Rockies)

13. Jose Valdespina, rhp, Spokane (Rangers)

14. Dane Phillips, c, Eugene (Padres)

15. Stephen Bruno, inf, Boise (Cubs)

16. Trey Martin, of, Boise (Cubs)

17. Tayler Scott, rhp, Boise (Cubs)

18. Jeremy Baltz, of, Eugene (Padres)

19. Ketel Marte, ss/2b, Everett (Mariners)

20. Taylor Cole, rhp, Vancouver (Blue Jays)

[Guest]

2. Dan Vogelbach, 1b, Boise Hawks

Age: 19  B-T: L-R  Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 250  Drafted: Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla., 2011 (2nd round).

Signed for $1.6 million as a 2011 second-round pick, Vogelbach batted .322/.410/.641 with 17 homers between the Rookie-level Arizona League and the NWL in his first full pro season. His power earned him that big bonus, but he also has pure hitting ability.

 

"He has a real feel to hit," Vancouver manager Clayton McCullough said. "He has a plan when he goes up there to hit. He has a very advanced approach. He's as good of a hitter as anybody in this league."

 

Vogelbach will need to continue to mash because he doesn't have much in the way of other skills. He's a baseclogger who lacks athleticism and will have to work hard to even be an adequate defender at first base.

 

6. Marco Hernandez, ss, Boise Hawks

Age: 19  B-T: L-R  Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 170  Signed: Dominican Republic, '09

Hernandez beat out 2011 first-round pick Javier Baez for the starting shortstop job at low Class A Peoria to start this season, but the Midwest League proved to be too fast with him. He looked like a different player at Boise, where he made some offensive adjustments and regained his confidence.

 

"He really came on and was the most improved hitter on the team," Boise hitting coach Bill Buckner said. "Most of it was pitch selection. He finally realized that by getting good pitches to hit that he's a better hitter."

 

Hernandez still has room to improve in terms of plate discipline and pitch recognition, but he shows good bat control and eventually should have the strength to hit 15 homers annually. He has good athleticism and is a 65 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has very good footwork at shortstop, with nice actions and average arm strength.

 

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3b, Boise Hawks

Age: 18  B-T: B-R  Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 180  Signed: Dominican Republic, '10

After Candelario tore up the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League in his 2011 pro debut, the Cubs aggressively jumped him to Boise as an 18-year-old. The youngest regular in the NWL, he ranked fourth with 47 RBIs.

 

Candelario has a smooth, handsy swing from both sides of the plate and projects to be an above-average hitter with solid power. He shows good plate discipline and pitch recognition, and heuses the entire field. Most of his value lies in his bat, because he's a below-average runner and fringy defender (albeit with the requisite arm strength) at the hot corner.

 

"He's got the perfect body for third base," Buckner said. "He's got some power from both sides of the plate. Of course he's real young, but he's got a great attitude too. Nothing bothers him. I think he's going to be a 20-home run guy. He's just 18 years old and he's going to be big and strong."

 

9. Gioskar Amaya, 2b, Boise Hawks

Age: 19  B-T: R-R  Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 175  Signed: Venezuela '09

Amaya showed off his best tool (his bat) by hitting .377 in the Arizona League last year, but he didn't hit a single home run. This summer he popped eight and also led the NWL with 12 triples, showing improved power with his short, quick swing. A sneaky above-average runner who profiles as a tablesetter, he needs to continue to improve his pitch recognition.

 

Amaya and Hernandez have been teammates for the past three seasons now. The two alternated in the middle of the diamond in the AZL, but Hernandez is the better defender and Amaya played exclusively at second base in 2012. His range and arm are just a bit subpar to play shortstop but work fine at second base.

 

15. Stephen Bruno, inf, Boise Hawks

Age: 21  B-T: R-R  Ht.: 5-9 Wt.: 165  Drafted: Virginia, 2012 (7th round).

Despite his undersized build, Bruno always has produced at the plate. In his pro debut, he led the NWL in batting (.361), hits (91) and on-base percentage (.442).

 

Bruno uses a compact swing and stays behind the ball really well. A pure hitter who has no problem handling premium velocity, he provides more power to the gaps than over the fence. He's fearless and doesn't give an inch at the plate—as evidenced by his 20 hit by pitches, which ranked sixth in the minor leagues.

 

"He's amazing," Buckner said. "The guy hit the ball hard three times every game. He just never takes a bad swing."

 

A solid defender who fits best at second base, Bruno has enough arm strength and range to play almost anywhere on the diamond. He started games everywhere except pitcher, catcher and first base for the Hawks this summer. He has average speed but needs to get better jumps on the bases.

 

16. Trey Martin, of, Boise Hawks

Age: 19  B-T: R-R  Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 188  Drafted: Brookwood HS, Snellville, Ga., 2011 (13th round).

It's easy to dream on Martin because he has a wiry, athletic build and loose, natural actions. He has plenty of room to continue filling out and add power. He has long arms that create natural leverage in his swing.

 

Martin has good hand-eye coordination, but his stroke gets too long at times and leaves him vulnerable to being tied up on fastballs inside. He's a well-above average runner, though he needs work on reading pitchers and improving his jumps on the bases. Even if he doesn't break out with the bat, he has major league defensive value and solid arm strength.

 

"He's a big league center fielder right now," Boise manager Mark Johnson said. "You could put him out there and he'd be better than some of the big leaguers right now. Everything he does, he just makes it look routine. He covers a lot of ground because his stride is so long. He just floats out there in the outfield and takes effortless routes."

 

17. Tayler Scott, rhp, Boise Hawks

Age: 20  B-T: R-R  Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 165  Drafted: Notre Dame Prep, Scottsdale, Ariz., 2011 (5th round).

Scott's family moved to the United States from South Africa at the beginning of his high school career, so he's relatively inexperienced for a high school pitcher from a warm-weather state. That contributed to the Cubs' decision to keep him in short-season ball during his first full year as a pro.

 

While Scott has a solid three-pitch mix, he's still learning how to command it and miss bats. He creates groundouts with a 90-92 mph sinker, a tight 78-80 mph curveball and a decent changeup. He profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter with the chance to be better because he still has projection remaining in his thin frame.

 

A standout soccer player in high school Scott has outstanding athleticism that helps him repeat his clean delivery. He works quickly, fields his position well and controls the running game.

 

Almora didn't have enough at bats to qualify.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2012/2614103.html

[Little Slide Rooter]

Very impressive representation by the Cubs, esepcially with Vogelbach as #2 behind a guy who's a likely top 25, perhaps top 10 prospect.

[El Duderino]

Wow, even with Almora not qualifying.

[toonsterwu]

I'm surprised by how high they had Marco, and I'm surprised that he was ahead of Jeimer, but Marco finished strong whereas Jeimer cooled off a bit. I loved seeing Marco's K and BB numbers each month there - let's hope he carries it to Peoria next year. That said, I still wonder about the generous 15 HR ceiling ... but this is the 2nd straight year where I've seen that number tossed around. For all his warts this year, Marco's biggest problem this year was his approach, and if that improves, he's still a dang good looking shortstop prospect.

 

I was mildly stunned at how high Vogelbach was placed ... but looking at the list, the talent base isn't that deep (which they note).

[davell]

Anything good in the chat?

[El Duderino]

Joe R (Newport News, VA): John Kruk didn't have a lot of power for a major-league first baseman. Will Vogelbach have more power than Kruk did?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Yeah, I do think he'll have a little more power. Maybe lefthanded Billy Butler is a better comp. Just not Prince Fielder.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Did you hear anything about Boise's Jose Arias? He put up some interesting numbers and I've heard he has tremendous velocity.

 

 

Conor Glassey: Navin, I did get some information on Arias, though I wouldn't say he was close to making the list. You're right about his fastball—he has a power arm and sat in the 93-95 mph range. But his offspeed stuff needs a lot of work and he's very young. He needs to do a better job preparing between starts and keeping his composure on the mound.

 

Peter O. (Coeur d'Alene, ID): Trey Martin really stood out to me watching him this year, as you can really see the tools. What do you think is the main aspect of his game that he needs to focus on to really take off next year?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Martin is certainly toolsy and has the type of body that could add 15-20 pounds without sacrificing athleticism. The biggest thing he needs to work on is pitch recognition and swing mechanics. His swing is a little long now, so he's vulnerable to fastballs inside. If he can learn to shorten up and turn on those fastballs, that will allow him to track balls a little longer, which will help his pitch recognition on breaking balls. That's how Bill Buckner explained it to me and he had 2,715 hits in the big leagues. After that, Martin needs to work on getting better jumps on the basepaths. He has very good speed, but was only 6-for-11 in stolen bases this year.

 

Jon (Peoria): Is it safe to say that Bruno is more polished than Amaya right now but that Amaya has a higher ceiling? Does either have a higher ceiling at 2b than Logan Watkins in the Cubs system?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Yeah, I believe that's fair to say, Jon. Bruno profiles as a better pure hitter, but Amaya has the edge in power, speed and defense. Watkins (who ranked as the No. 19 prospect on this list in 2009) is still at the top of that group, but it's a nice problem to have. I'm not writing off Zeke DeVoss, either!

 

Josh (California): How "real" do you think Stephen Bruno's season was and how much of it was the NWL? And what position, if any, do you see him ending up at?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Bruno's always hit. The OBP was inflated a little bit by how often he got Dos'ed and Bill Buckner told me he better get a better elbow guard next year. He fits best at second base and I could see him as an everyday guy there or as a super utility guy.

 

Josh (California): Do you think any of the Hawks players on the list are capable of skipping Kane County and going directly to Daytona?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Bruno's probably the only one with a shot at doing that.

 

Jack (Toronto): I was surprised that Amaya wasn't higher on the list, at least higher than Marco Hernandez. He showed power, patience and speed this year. I understand defence is the difference, but that Marco hasn't shown much power and very little patience I would have thought they'd be flipped in the rankings. Can you elaborate on your choice?

 

 

Conor Glassey: There really isn't a lot of separation between 6-9. I gave Hernandez the edge for his ability to remain at shortstop and his switch-hitting ability. We're projecting on this, so while Amaya showed more present power, Hernandez projects to hit for similar or better power as he continues to fill out.

 

Who are some of the players who qualified and just missed the list?

 

 

Conor Glassey: Okay, going team-by-team, the group of guys who qualified and just missed making the list would be…Willson Contreras, C, Boise (new to catcher, athletic with loud tools, very raw in games)...

 

Jesse (ABQ): Conor! You know we always love sleepers! Who ya got?

 

 

Conor Glassey: A good place to end it. The three sleepers I have are all lefthanders. Michael Heesch from Boise, Will Locante from Yakima and Brandon Alger in Eugene. Heesch and Alger are starters and Locante is a power arm out of the bullpen. Keep an eye on those guys.

[Guest]

Also:

 

Ernie (Seattle): Connor, Where would Roberto Osuna have placed if he had qualified ?

 

Conor Glassey: Lots of "Where would this guy" rank questions in the queue. So, here's how I think the Top 8 would have looked if the guys mentioned in the intro had qualified: Zunino, Almora, Stratton, Gallo, Vogelbach, Sanchez, Ross, Osuna.

 

Mike (PA): Vogelbach and Sanchez are back to back at a combined 505 lbs! You don't often see top prospects that big. We've heard a lot about how the big body might effect Vogelbach, but are there similar concerns about a 255 lb 17 yr old pitcher?

 

Conor Glassey: Yeah, when I submitted my list to Jim Callis, he thought that might be a record combined weight for the No. 2 & 3 prospects in a league. There's no way I'm taking the time to find out for sure, but it's a good bet. I think it's less of a concern for pitchers than it is for hitters. Sanchez is huge, but he's also very muscular. On paper, they look similar, but in person they have very different physiques. Sanchez is huge, but he's ripped. Teammates called him Ray Lewis around the clubhouse!

 

Jon (Peoria): The obvious comp on Vogelbach based on the body is Prince Fielder. But is he anywhere near that comp for the bat?

 

Conor Glassey: Prince Fielder is just special. He has 258 home runs (and counting) over the first eight seasons of his career. Thanks to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, I can tell you that ranks 10th all-time and it's more than Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Manny Ramirez, Mike Schmidt, Vladimir Guerrero, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds, to name a few. Fielder is more athletic than Vogelbach, was drafted 61 spots higher and his dad played in the big leagues. So this is a roundabout way of saying, no, Prince Fielder is not a good (or fair) comparison for Vogelbach. I think a better comparison would be John Kruk.

 

Matt (Brussels,belgium): Is Vogelback a top 100 guy? Is a good comp Fielder? As a big guy one concern is work ethic, what were you hearing about his?

 

Conor Glassey: Already covered the Fielder thing, but no—the only Top 100 guy on this list is Zunino.

[davell]

Awesome stuff. Thanks guys. Guess Conor needs to be reminded about Torreyes, if he's not ready to write off DeVoss. That said, I gotta wonder how high they rank Watkins now? I guess tail end of the top 10 is even possible, but I guess 12-15.

[toonsterwu]

Wait ... am I reading Conor right there? Is he saying that Watkins as the highest overall ceiling of the bunch? Because ... I'm hard pressed to buy that. The highest ceiling? Amaya, IMO, has a higher ceiling at 2nd if he becomes an above average defensive player who hits for power. I'm also a bit surprised that he says Amaya has the edge defensively at 2nd over Bruno.

 

I know Watkins seems to be gaining a lot of steam right now, but I really would like to see him string together one solid consistent year of offensive work before buying him as a regular. Off the top, he's run hot and cold in his last two stops, getting off to slow starts to the year. I think one month last year could be chalked up to a clear BABIP issue, but I don't recall insanely extreme BABIP numbers on the other months. I just have a tough time buying him as a regular, but here's hoping I'm wrong.

 

I made a comment somewhere recently, don't recall (probably TCR?), about how I wouldn't sleep on DeVoss just yet. The numbers make for an odd read on what might happen next year, and smarter people with more time to spend can come up with a better analysis than I could, but I could see him break out offensively in the FSL. That said, my preference is still to have Bruno go up to FSL and take 2nd (although ... Bruno could go up and take 3rd ... I guess ... and move Geiger to 1st/corner OF ... I'd rather see Bruno get regular time at one position, but realistically, my guess is that they'll have him play multiple positions as he works his way up).

[davell]

Watkins is likely just getting a bump for being at a higher level. For pure upside, I think I'd rank our 2B in this order: Amaya, Torreyes, Bruno, Watkins, DeVoss. But not a lot of separation from 1-3.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Highest upside out of a standard-issue batch of generic middle-infield longshots isn't exactly high praise.

[davell]

Kyle, you're reaching with your new found B2B persona with that comment. Amaya, Torreyes, and Bruno are not generic whatsoever.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle, you're reaching with your new found B2B persona with that comment. Amaya, Torreyes, and Bruno are not generic whatsoever.

 

Out of 30 MLB farm systems, how many of them do you think have three middle infielders the equivalent of Amaya, Torreyes and Bruno?

[davell]

Considering I'd have all 3 of them in the top 15ish or so of all 2B in the minors, not many. Sure, they take a hit for being 2B instead of SS, but by no means are these guys standard 2B prospects. All 3 are much better than the average team has in it's pipeline at 2B.

[davell]

As far as including SS into the conversation, which I don't agree with, since these guys don't play SS themselves.....I'd say 10-15 teams have a group of 3 equal to or better than the group of 3 from us.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You probably know them better than I do, but I just don't see what I'm supposed to be so hyped about.

[davell]

Personally, I think having 3 of them gives us a very good chance of winding up with an AS 2B for the longterm. All 3 have above average pop and much better than average hit tools for 2B. Individually right now, none have tremendous trade value, but the higher they move up, the better it will get. You were very high on Torreyes yourself, not sure why that's changed, as we all looked at his Babip luck last year. I know I fully expect it to be better next year in AA. I hope Bruno goes to Daytona, as I think it's more age appropriate for him, not to mention, his talent level as well. And I think until proven otherwise, Amaya's hit tool should be rated higher than the pub it's gotten, to date.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Personally, I think having 3 of them gives us a very good chance of winding up with an AS 2B for the longterm. All 3 have above average pop and much better than average hit tools for 2B. Individually right now, none have tremendous trade value, but the higher they move up, the better it will get. You were very high on Torreyes yourself, not sure why that's changed, as we all looked at his Babip luck last year. I know I fully expect it to be better next year in AA. I hope Bruno goes to Daytona, as I think it's more age appropriate for him, not to mention, his talent level as well. And I think until proven otherwise, Amaya's hit tool should be rated higher than the pub it's gotten, to date.

 

I don't see .281 with 9 HRs as above-average hit-tool and pop. Those look like average and below-average to me.

 

Torreyes' hit tool is obviously above average (or better), but he hit 6 home runs this year.

 

Amaya's slash line is exciting, but it's still Boise. Show me something in Peoria and maybe we'll talk.

 

Throwing together a bunch of guys like this and assuming that one of them has to pan out to fill the position just never seems to work. It's David Kelton/Brendan Harris/Iforgetthethirdguy all over again.

 

All-Star looks way, way too high to me. I like Torreyes, and I don't dislike the other two, but they all strike me as "these guys have a chance to be useful MLB players someday" types of prospects, hence the "generic" label. I wouldn't put any of them at more than maybe a 20% chance to become a long-term starter in MLB.

 

Are these guys really better prospects than the Eric Pattersons of the world? The Ronny Cedenos? Ryan Flaherty? DJ LeMahieu? Nate Frese? Jose Nieves? They all look cut from the same cloth to me. I like having them, because sometimes one of them turns into Darwin Barney or Ryan Theriot, but either I'm really underrating them or assuming we'll get an AS out of the trio seems to be way overhyped.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And by Peoria, I mean Kane County.

[Guest]

Personally, I think having 3 of them gives us a very good chance of winding up with an AS 2B for the longterm. All 3 have above average pop and much better than average hit tools for 2B. Individually right now, none have tremendous trade value, but the higher they move up, the better it will get. You were very high on Torreyes yourself, not sure why that's changed, as we all looked at his Babip luck last year. I know I fully expect it to be better next year in AA. I hope Bruno goes to Daytona, as I think it's more age appropriate for him, not to mention, his talent level as well. And I think until proven otherwise, Amaya's hit tool should be rated higher than the pub it's gotten, to date.

 

I don't see .281 with 9 HRs as above-average hit-tool and pop. Those look like average and below-average to me.

 

Torreyes' hit tool is obviously above average (or better), but he hit 6 home runs this year.

 

Amaya's slash line is exciting, but it's still Boise. Show me something in Peoria and maybe we'll talk.

 

Throwing together a bunch of guys like this and assuming that one of them has to pan out to fill the position just never seems to work. It's David Kelton/Brendan Harris/Iforgetthethirdguy all over again.

 

All-Star looks way, way too high to me. I like Torreyes, and I don't dislike the other two, but they all strike me as "these guys have a chance to be useful MLB players someday" types of prospects, hence the "generic" label. I wouldn't put any of them at more than maybe a 20% chance to become a long-term starter in MLB.

 

Are these guys really better prospects than the Eric Pattersons of the world? The Ronny Cedenos? Ryan Flaherty? DJ LeMahieu? Nate Frese? Jose Nieves? They all look cut from the same cloth to me. I like having them, because sometimes one of them turns into Darwin Barney or Ryan Theriot, but either I'm really underrating them or assuming we'll get an AS out of the trio seems to be way overhyped.

 

Maybe one of all those guys you mentioned would've developed into something worth a damn if they weren't in an awful organization.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I know I've leaned pretty heavily on this link before, but I do love it:

 

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects#storyjump

 

In order for those three guys to combine for a 50% chance of being 2.5+ WAR players (which is probably a bit below All-Star level, but we'll go with it), they'd need to each be about a 20% chance of reaching that level.

 

According to the link above, a 20% or better chance of becoming a 2.5+ WAR player is reserved for position prospects in the top 50-75 of all of baseball. I don't see any of those three in that range.

[davell]

.281 and 9 homers? Who's numbers are those? While Torreyes only hit 6 homers, he did it at 19 in a league that is at least neutral, maybe weighted towards pitching. I can see double digit homers from him in the future and if not, 40+ doubles. And David is absolutely 100% correct, the player development differences between Hendry's Cubs and this regime is totally different and previous Cubs prospects shouldn't even be used as comparisons. Hendry and Co may have drafted just as well as this group, they dropped the ball completely after that point though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Derp, I was thinking "Watkins, Torreyes, Amaya" and leaving out Bruno.

 

Bruno was a 7th-rounder who put up a .425 BABIP as a 21-year-old in Boise. What am I supposed to like?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe one of all those guys you mentioned would've developed into something worth a damn if they weren't in an awful organization.

 

I mentioned two who did turn out worth a little. That's kind of my point. You want to have about dozen of these guys in your system all the time because 1 or 2 will turn into Ryan Theriot or Darwin Barney, but I don't see anything in any of those guys that puts them beyond that, except *maybe* Torreyes who is an fascinating mix of strengths and weaknesses.