2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

SP- Greinke, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson

 

OF- Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher

 

I think that was everyone I thought had a chance at receiving the qualifier. Kyle Lohse goes on the other list as someone we conceivably could get without one, by the way.

 

Yeah, there's obviously not a player on that list that isn't worth sacrificing a second-round pick for. Worst comes to worst, you trade them in 2014 and get a way better prospect than your 2nd-round pick probably turned out to be.

It's not as simple as that though. Pretty close to everyone on that list will require a 4-5 year commitment. So the question becomes who off THAT list do you want for that length of time? Like I said, I understand Upton, but not anyone else.

 

Well, that's a different discussion. Personally, I think those guys are a much better asset for the Cubs than another year of payroll flexibility, but ymmv. That's a lot different than saying we should avoid them because we'd have to give up a second-round draft pick.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'll give it a shot.

 

1. Sign Edwin Jackson to a 4 year deal. 10M per year reasonable?

2. Sign Brandon McCarthy to a 2 year deal with third option year. (8M avg?)

(Failing those get two, theres also Dempster, Blanton, Francis, Haren, Villanueva, Sanchez, Liarano who are varying levels of acceptable, to intriguing, to underwhelming one year stop gaps to fill innings if we strike out- all depending on cost obviously. Bottom line though is filling 2 rotation spots for 2013, and hopefully filling spots beyond that)

 

3. Sign Angel Pagan to a 3 year deal. He should provide a decent CF option. I'm looking at him like DeJesus.

 

4. Find a couple mildly cost effective bullpen stop gaps. I honestly don't care enough to look who is available. No more than 3M/2yr for either.

5. Look to deal Jackson in a prospect for prospect swap. A pitcher would be nice or a 3B. If we don't find anything good I don't think we're hurting his value to keep him in AAA and let him work on things. If we end up finding a good package for Soriano, he is available to come up.

6. Keep Vitters in AAA to work on things.

7. Float LaHair as a trade chip for literally anything.

8. Would like something interesting for 3B, but it will be tough. If Youkilis isn't brought back by the White Sox, I would be up for a 1 year with an option contract. Even with my other three FA ideas, we should still have enough money. I'll say we get him. Otherwise maybe we are able to get another mildly interesting candidate to compete with Valbuena and Stewart.

 

I'm showing something still under $115M, maybe closer to $105M, all depending on FA and arbitration costs. I don't think we owe anything to other teams either, so that's still plenty of money to pour into the developmental side and business ventures.

 

Lineup:

RF- DeJesus

SS- Castro

1B- Rizzo

3B- Youkilis

LF- Soriano

CF- Pagan

2B- Barney

C- Castillo

 

SP- Samardzija

SP- Garza

SP- Jackson

SP- McCarthy

SP- Wood

 

CL- Marmol

BP (5) - Russell, a couple FAs and whatever else we wanna throw out from what we have.

Long Man- Volstad

 

Bench:

C- Clevenger or Recker

2B/3B- Valbuena

3B- Stewart

OF- Sappelt

CF- Campana

[Beer Kaese]

There are themes that have emerged from this thread.

 

1) The minor league talent in the system is too far down to generate major value.

 

2) We ain't got no pitching.

 

Like it or not 2013 is another lost year.

 

If I were the GM, I'd add some arms passed over by the contenders and trade them later to the contenders.

[Little Slide Rooter]

There are themes that have emerged from this thread.

 

1) The minor league talent in the system is too far down to generate major value.

 

2) We ain't got no pitching.

 

Like it or not 2013 is another lost year.

 

If I were the GM, I'd add some arms passed over by the contenders and trade them later to the contenders.

 

How do we not have pitching? If Garza's comes back healthy and Shark can improve on or at least repeat what he did this season that's a solid 1-2. Neither is a "number 1" by the standards of the experts, but if you ask them, there's like 10-12 of those in the entire league. Wood's been as good as most 4s, mostly, and if they dont see Volstad, Rally, Rusin, or Germano as a 5, they can look into finding another Maholm. If they're willing to spend for Jackson, Sanchez, or Marcum, I really like the rotation. It's by no means 2003 or 2008, but it's not like the NL Central is stacked with pitching.

[WrigleyField 22]

There are themes that have emerged from this thread.

 

1) The minor league talent in the system is too far down to generate major value.

 

2) We ain't got no pitching.

 

Like it or not 2013 is another lost year.

 

If I were the GM, I'd add some arms passed over by the contenders and trade them later to the contenders.

 

How do we not have pitching? If Garza's comes back healthy and Shark can improve on or at least repeat what he did this season that's a solid 1-2. Neither is a "number 1" by the standards of the experts, but if you ask them, there's like 10-12 of those in the entire league. Wood's been as good as most 4s, mostly, and if they dont see Volstad, Rally, Rusin, or Germano as a 5, they can look into finding another Maholm. If they're willing to spend for Jackson, Sanchez, or Marcum, I really like the rotation. It's by no means 2003 or 2008, but it's not like the NL Central is stacked with pitching.

Volstad, Raley, Rusin, and Germano are not 5th starters! Wood is our fifth stater. Of those other guys one can be the long man and the others are Iowa fodder waiting around for injuries.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[davell]

And Garza's likely getting dealt between now and the deadline and we have no discernable pitching in the upper levels of the system, other than a guy coming off TJS. Hence, the verbage of "we ain't got no pitching".

[TheDude]

There are themes that have emerged from this thread.

 

1) The minor league talent in the system is too far down to generate major value.

 

2) We ain't got no pitching.

 

Like it or not 2013 is another lost year.

 

If I were the GM, I'd add some arms passed over by the contenders and trade them later to the contenders.

 

This. The FO needs to find more Maholm-type deals to get serviceable pitching the first half and then move for talent at the deadline.

[davell]

McCarthy 1-12, Melky 1-10, Villanueva 2-10, a couple relievers on 1 year deals, Vitters for Sonny Gray, Szczur, Villanueva, and Watkins for Delgado, Soriano and cash to Yanks for Marshall and Gumbs.

[davell]

Levine's chats aren't usually good for much, but he did say he expects the Cubs to move on from Stewart, the coaches weren't real happy with his work habits.

[Guest]

I think Blanton is a guy the front office may take a chance on. He's got three straight years with an ERA around 5.0, so he'll come on a pretty cheap one year deal. But his peripherals and advanced metrics repeatedly say he is a much better pitcher than the ERA suggests.

[ctcf]

I think Blanton is a guy the front office may take a chance on. He's got three straight years with an ERA around 5.0, so he'll come on a pretty cheap one year deal. But his peripherals and advanced metrics repeatedly say he is a much better pitcher than the ERA suggests.

 

Plus he'd help meeting the fat joke quota

[Guest]

BTW, why is nobody mentioning Chapman for the bullpen next year? He has looked outstanding.

[davell]

I always forget him. After reading he's an up and down guy from someone, it stuck for some reason. I'd throw him in with Dolis and Cabrera and figure one of the 3 begins the season in the majors.

[JeffH]

Maybe Jaye Chapman is Theo's Chad Bradford.

[davell]

BTW, why is nobody mentioning Chapman for the bullpen next year? He has looked outstanding.

Bowden's done well enough for himself too, that he'll definitely have a shot. Maybe even moreso, because of his prior ties to this group.

[SABR Gamer]

Really wish we had traded for Chase Headley last offseason. He would cost an arm and a leg now, too bad.

[davell]

He would have cost an arm and a leg then too. Which is why he wasn't dealt.

[SABR Gamer]

He would have cost an arm and a leg then too. Which is why he wasn't dealt.

 

True, it would just be even more ridiculous now that he has put up a monster year.

[davell]

Just saw a quote from Sveum saying Valbuena will be tendered a contract in the offseason.

[El Duderino]

If we had traded for Headley we couldn't have gotten Rizzo.

[biittner77]

If we had traded for Headley we couldn't have gotten Rizzo.

 

3rd base has always been a harder postion to fill though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The "This Time We Will Catch Houston" Edition. AKA the "Pay for the reconstruction as fast as possible" edition.

 

Jackson, Castillo and Valbuena are declared the starters for 2013. Valbuena gets maybe $1.5 in arbitration (estimating high to be on the safe side). That solidifies the starting position players before you enter the offseason. *Maybe* you dump Soriano and use the salary relief to pick up a cheap veteran replacement. Trade Vitters for a similar-quality live arm you can get in a prospect-for-prospect deal.

 

Soriano/Jackson/DeJesus

Valbuena/Castro/Barney/Rizzo

Castillo

 

Bench:

Sappelt/Reed-Johnson-style vet ($1 million)

Cardenas/Mather-style-minimum-guy

Recker or Clevenger

(sometimes a five-man bench, sometimes six with the now-traditional waiver-wire shuffle going on all season).

 

Garza and Samardzija combine for $20 million in arbitration deals.

 

Okay, on to the pitching:

Non-tender Stewart and Volstad.

Find a guy who will take a 1/$10 deal that you can Maholm this trade deadline (McCarthy? Villanueva? Heck, can we try to see if Dempster wants to do it all again? You could probably get Liriano really cheap, and FIP seems to sort of like him).

 

Leave the bullpen alone and assume you can fill it out with young guys and waiver-wire pickups.

 

Total MLB payroll (including Soler and Concepcion's MLB contracts): ~$75 million.

 

It's hard to get a real read on the Cubs' books, but that should leave like $60-80 million in excess baseball operations budget to go toward the renovations. That's half of what the Cubs were hoping to have to contribute, and about a quarter of the total cost.

[davell]

I actually think that team comes in well under the 75 figure actually. I wish we had a better handle on how exactly arbitration truly works. But I'll be surprised if Valbuena hits a mill even, based on his MLB stats so far. Shark will be interesting, but the bottom line is he's had one good year starting and a good one in relief. My honest guess is he'll be between 4-5 mill, giving him a solid raise from the sub-3 mill he's making currently. Because this IS his 1st arb year. Garza wilk be interesting too, because of missing half a season and the uncertainty of how his elbow rwacts after throwing again. He'll get a raise, but I doubt he'll make more than 11-12 mill, because of the circumstance he's in. But yeah, that team challenges Houston for the Rodon sweepstakes and an injury probably makes us the odds on favorites.

[KingCubsFan]

I actually think that team comes in well under the 75 figure actually. I wish we had a better handle on how exactly arbitration truly works. But I'll be surprised if Valbuena hits a mill even, based on his MLB stats so far. Shark will be interesting, but the bottom line is he's had one good year starting and a good one in relief. My honest guess is he'll be between 4-5 mill, giving him a solid raise from the sub-3 mill he's making currently. Because this IS his 1st arb year. Garza wilk be interesting too, because of missing half a season and the uncertainty of how his elbow rwacts after throwing again. He'll get a raise, but I doubt he'll make more than 11-12 mill, because of the circumstance he's in. But yeah, that team challenges Houston for the Rodon sweepstakes and an injury probably makes us the odds on favorites.

Is Rodon worth tanking for?

[sneakypower]

i'm going to pistol-whip the next person who mentions Rodon

 

Find a guy who will take a 1/$10 deal that you can Maholm this trade deadline (McCarthy? Villanueva? Heck, can we try to see if Dempster wants to do it all again? You could probably get Liriano really cheap, and FIP seems to sort of like him).

find three guys who'll do that, is more of what i'm wanting

 

if Baker/Marcum/Floyd want one-year deals to rebuild value, i'm all for it

if Villanueva, McCarthy, Liriano want the security of a 3- or 4-year deal, i'd be happy to oblige

 

(the assumption here is also that none of these guys will be commanding $10M AAV, but it's possible i'm low on a couple of these guys)