2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Anyway, to me, the bullpen is going to be the bellweather this offseason. It needs to be better, and it can be better with minimal investment.

 

I have no doubt that they'll find a collection of arms to file behind Samardzija and Garza in the rotation. I'll even live with it, albeit while complaining loudly, if they decide they really like Valbuena or Vitters to try at 3b. But there's really no reason to just completely ignore/dismantle the bullpen yet again.

[davell]

Barring any trades, we have Marmol and Russell. That's really it. I expect Corpas back, 3rd year of arb, still fairly young, probably won't cost more than a mill and a half, at most. I'm sure we'll sign some more Camp types-old vets on minor league deals. Bowden may have a legit chance, he seems to be pitching better this second time. My guess is Beliveau makes the team, along with one of Dolis or Cabrera as a potential power arm. But there are plenty of vets out there that'll be signing one year deals, like Durbin, Rauch, etc and I definitely see us adding one or two of those type guys. It would at least make the pen passable and leave room to continue the tryout process for some of the young guys to shuttle back and forth.

[Cubswin11]

Barring any trades, we have Marmol and Russell. That's really it. I expect Corpas back, 3rd year of arb, still fairly young, probably won't cost more than a mill and a half, at most. I'm sure we'll sign some more Camp types-old vets on minor league deals. Bowden may have a legit chance, he seems to be pitching better this second time. My guess is Beliveau makes the team, along with one of Dolis or Cabrera as a potential power arm. But there are plenty of vets out there that'll be signing one year deals, like Durbin, Rauch, etc and I definitely see us adding one or two of those type guys. It would at least make the pen passable and leave room to continue the tryout process for some of the young guys to shuttle back and forth.

This. We will probably add a Rule V guy too.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Barring any trades, we have Marmol and Russell. That's really it. I expect Corpas back, 3rd year of arb, still fairly young, probably won't cost more than a mill and a half, at most. I'm sure we'll sign some more Camp types-old vets on minor league deals. Bowden may have a legit chance, he seems to be pitching better this second time. My guess is Beliveau makes the team, along with one of Dolis or Cabrera as a potential power arm. But there are plenty of vets out there that'll be signing one year deals, like Durbin, Rauch, etc and I definitely see us adding one or two of those type guys. It would at least make the pen passable and leave room to continue the tryout process for some of the young guys to shuttle back and forth.

This. We will probably add a Rule V guy too.

 

My guess is Marmol is traded, and we sign someone like Brad Lidge, K Rod, or Bobby Jenks to a 1 year deal with incentives and possible options. Additionally we give someone like Francisco Cordero, Juan Cruz, or John Rausch to a minor league deal, or else a very low 1 year deal.

 

Additionally, we have Russell, Beliveau, and Cabrera as pretty close to sure things, although Russell could be a trade candidate as well. Additional spots will likely be Dolis and Bowden's to win or lose in the spring. Hatley and Mateo are also a good possibility, McNutt possible too. Besides that, I'm sure there will be another revolving door of has beens and never will bes.

[davell]

Thete's too many closers available this offseason for Marmol to be dealt, in my opinion. Yeah, a team may look at him as a set up guy, but with the probable return, he's most likely worth more to us just keeping him.

[Anomalied]

I was bored, so here’s my mock. I tried to keep it somewhat realistic.

 

- Trade Alfonso Soriano. He is currently on pace to finish 2012 with 33 HRs and a .818 OPS. I find it hard to believe that there is no team interested in that, especially if the Cubs are willing to foot the bill for the majority of his remaining contract.

 

- Sign Edwin Jackson to a 1 year deal with a team option for a second year. The hope here is that he pulls a Maholm in the first half and we can snag a decent prospect at the deadline again.

 

- Sign Francisco Liriano to a 2 year deal. His career has been all over the map, but there are always stretches where he pitches like an ace. I think he would benefit from a move to the National League and he’s a guy that could fall either way as far as the rebuilding process goes. He’s still young enough to be a part of the next contending core, but he could also be trade bait if he throws lights out and another team dangles a solid prospect to get him.

 

- Sign Melky Cabrera to a 1 year deal to replace Soriano. His reputation is tarnished and Theo & Co can buy low. The idea is he’ll be motivated to up his value and prove he can perform clean and could put together a strong first half, especially playing at Wrigley. Then, like with Jackson, Epstein can sell high in July (rhymes) and maybe get a nice return.

 

- Stick with Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters. Luis Valbuena is not the solution at third, but Vitters might be (at least until Baez is ready). If he fails hard in the first half then demote him, trade him, bench him, whatever, but the Cubs are rebuilding and now is the time to allow a prospect like Vitters to have his at-bats and learn to adapt. Same with Jackson, although his performance has been more encouraging this season. I think hitting between DeJesus and Castro is a perfect spot for him to see a lot of nice pitches.

 

- We won’t be contending yet so there’s no need to spend big on the bullpen or bench. Hopefully a few of the in-house guys pan out to go along with Russell. Perhaps Marmol could be dealt at the deadline too if he avoids too many of his usual meltdowns in the first half.

 

1. David DeJesus (RF)

2. Brett Jackson (CF)

3. Starlin Castro (SS)

4. Anthony Rizzo (1B)

5. Melky Cabrera (LF)

6. Wellington Castillo ©

7. Josh Vitters (3B)

8. Darwin Barney (2B)

 

- Steve Clevenger ©

- Dave Sappelt (OF)

- Bryan LaHair (OF/IF)

- Adrian Cardenas (IF)

- Ian Stewart or Luis Valbuena (IF)

 

1. Matt Garza (SP)

2. Jeff Samardzija (SP)

3. Edwin Jackson (SP)

4. Francisco Liriano (SP)

5. Travis Wood (SP)

 

- Rusin / Raley / Coleman (Long Relief)

- Rafael Dolis

- Jeff Believeau

- Alberto Cabrera

- Manny Corpas

- James Russell (SU)

- Carlos Marmol (CL)

[Sammy Sofa]

Despite the overall crappy FA market, there's too many big name FA OF available for me to see anyone giving up anything of real value for Soriano.

[davell]

After another solid season and taking the one year deal last offseason, I'll be very surprised if Edwin Jackson doesn't get a 4 year deal, maybe longer. He's arguably the second best pitcher on the FA market, behind Greinke.

[23sharks]

I was bored, so here’s my mock. I tried to keep it somewhat realistic.

 

- Trade Alfonso Soriano. He is currently on pace to finish 2012 with 33 HRs and a .818 OPS. I find it hard to believe that there is no team interested in that, especially if the Cubs are willing to foot the bill for the majority of his remaining contract.

 

- Sign Edwin Jackson to a 1 year deal with a team option for a second year. The hope here is that he pulls a Maholm in the first half and we can snag a decent prospect at the deadline again.

 

- Sign Francisco Liriano to a 2 year deal. His career has been all over the map, but there are always stretches where he pitches like an ace. I think he would benefit from a move to the National League and he’s a guy that could fall either way as far as the rebuilding process goes. He’s still young enough to be a part of the next contending core, but he could also be trade bait if he throws lights out and another team dangles a solid prospect to get him.

 

- Sign Melky Cabrera to a 1 year deal to replace Soriano. His reputation is tarnished and Theo & Co can buy low. The idea is he’ll be motivated to up his value and prove he can perform clean and could put together a strong first half, especially playing at Wrigley. Then, like with Jackson, Epstein can sell high in July (rhymes) and maybe get a nice return.

 

- Stick with Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters. Luis Valbuena is not the solution at third, but Vitters might be (at least until Baez is ready). If he fails hard in the first half then demote him, trade him, bench him, whatever, but the Cubs are rebuilding and now is the time to allow a prospect like Vitters to have his at-bats and learn to adapt. Same with Jackson, although his performance has been more encouraging this season. I think hitting between DeJesus and Castro is a perfect spot for him to see a lot of nice pitches.

 

- We won’t be contending yet so there’s no need to spend big on the bullpen or bench. Hopefully a few of the in-house guys pan out to go along with Russell. Perhaps Marmol could be dealt at the deadline too if he avoids too many of his usual meltdowns in the first half.

 

1. David DeJesus (RF)

2. Brett Jackson (CF)

3. Starlin Castro (SS)

4. Anthony Rizzo (1B)

5. Melky Cabrera (LF)

6. Wellington Castillo ©

7. Josh Vitters (3B)

8. Darwin Barney (2B)

 

- Steve Clevenger ©

- Dave Sappelt (OF)

- Bryan LaHair (OF/IF)

- Adrian Cardenas (IF)

- Ian Stewart or Luis Valbuena (IF)

 

1. Matt Garza (SP)

2. Jeff Samardzija (SP)

3. Edwin Jackson (SP)

4. Francisco Liriano (SP)

5. Travis Wood (SP)

 

- Rusin / Raley / Coleman (Long Relief)

- Rafael Dolis

- Jeff Believeau

- Alberto Cabrera

- Manny Corpas

- James Russell (SU)

- Carlos Marmol (CL)

 

 

There are teams that are interested in Soriano, the Giants were for sure, but it doesn't sound like he has any interest in waiving his NTC.

[imb]

if there's one thing i hope our 70-win 2013 team has, it's a rock solid bullpen.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

if there's one thing i hope our 70-win 2013 team has, it's a rock solid bullpen.

 

It's only capped at 70 wins if our front office wants it to be.

[davell]

if there's one thing i hope our 70-win 2013 team has, it's a rock solid bullpen.

 

It's only capped at 70 wins if our front office wants it to be.

 

I don't think it's that simple. Do you advocate giving away our 2nd round pick for any of the guys I mentioned that may get the qualifier put on them? I don't, because none are true difference makers, other than Greinke and Hamilton, who obviously are too risky for Theo to use his first big step here on.

 

But, if you take the guys I mentioned off the FA board, here's what we have to choose from:

 

SP- Bedard, Blanton, Feldman, Liriano, Marcum, McCarthy, Peavy, Santana, Villanueva, maybe Haren.

 

OF- Melky, Gomes, Hairston, Ross, Young, Pagan, Victorino, Hunter, and Ichiro

 

3B- Reynolds, Rolen, Youkilis, and Izturis

 

I don't see us adding anywhere else unless we traded Barney and the 2B options are Kelly Johnson and Keppinger. If we trade from our system right now, neither Soler or Almora can be dealt and I highly doubt we're trading Baez myself. Most of our main prospects are low enough in the minors that they don't have the trade as if they were in AA or even High A ball. To me, it leaves us with Vizcaino, Villanueva, Torreyes, Szczur, Lake, Vitters, and Brett as possible trade bait if we're to make trades right now for young, high upside guys. Again, I just don't see us getting real impact there, other than a trade to amp the young pitching up a bit with a Delgado type addition.

 

70 wins is doable obviously, but given our situation, unless Baez was dealt and we give up our 2nd rounder to sign an impact player, I can't see much more than that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

if there's one thing i hope our 70-win 2013 team has, it's a rock solid bullpen.

 

It's only capped at 70 wins if our front office wants it to be.

 

I don't think it's that simple. Do you advocate giving away our 2nd round pick for any of the guys I mentioned that may get the qualifier put on them? I don't, because none are true difference makers, other than Greinke and Hamilton, who obviously are too risky for Theo to use his first big step here on.

 

 

I can't think of too many MLB players I wouldn't give up a 2nd round pick for. Second-round picks suck.

 

Our 2nd round pick should be right around 40th overall, right? There have been 47 40th overall picks in the history of the draft. 4 of them have a career bWAR of greater than 1.

[davell]

if there's one thing i hope our 70-win 2013 team has, it's a rock solid bullpen.

 

It's only capped at 70 wins if our front office wants it to be.

 

I don't think it's that simple. Do you advocate giving away our 2nd round pick for any of the guys I mentioned that may get the qualifier put on them? I don't, because none are true difference makers, other than Greinke and Hamilton, who obviously are too risky for Theo to use his first big step here on.

 

 

I can't think of too many MLB players I wouldn't give up a 2nd round pick for. Second-round picks suck.

 

Our 2nd round pick should be right around 40th overall, right? There have been 47 40th overall picks in the history of the draft. 4 of them have a career bWAR of greater than 1.

 

Yeah, I don't think I can look at it that way. I definitely can't look at an exact draft spot and see that we're completely unable to find a guy that helps us in the future, either on the field or thru trade. Nor do I see anyone that I listed as getting qualified as being someone we actually would want or need, other than Upton, if the bidding stays even borderline reasonable? Do you?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, I don't think I can look at it that way. I definitely can't look at an exact draft spot and see that we're completely unable to find a guy that helps us in the future, either on the field or thru trade. Nor do I see anyone that I listed as getting qualified as being someone we actually would want or need, other than Upton, if the bidding stays even borderline reasonable? Do you?

 

I think you don't have to look at the exact draft spot to be realistic about the value of the prospect you are going to get there. There are two phases of the MLB draft: the first round, and then a gigantic craps shoot of lottery tickets. 2nd-round picks fall into the latter category. I'm not particularly worried about losing out on one. The possible trade value of a mediocre MLB player we sign >>>> the value of a 2nd-round draft pick.

 

From your list, I'd have no problem sacrificing a 2nd-round pick for any of the 3b and most of the pitchers. Haven't really looked at the outfielders too closely.

 

Now, granted, the Cubs aren't exactly a model franchise for drafting and development, but the Cubs haven't had a 2nd-round pick produce more than 0.5 bWAR since Maddux in 1984.

[bukie]

Yeah, I don't think I can look at it that way. I definitely can't look at an exact draft spot and see that we're completely unable to find a guy that helps us in the future, either on the field or thru trade. Nor do I see anyone that I listed as getting qualified as being someone we actually would want or need, other than Upton, if the bidding stays even borderline reasonable? Do you?

 

I think you don't have to look at the exact draft spot to be realistic about the value of the prospect you are going to get there. There are two phases of the MLB draft: the first round, and then a gigantic craps shoot of lottery tickets. 2nd-round picks fall into the latter category. I'm not particularly worried about losing out on one. The possible trade value of a mediocre MLB player we sign >>>> the value of a 2nd-round draft pick.

 

From your list, I'd have no problem sacrificing a 2nd-round pick for any of the 3b and most of the pitchers. Haven't really looked at the outfielders too closely.

 

Now, granted, the Cubs aren't exactly a model franchise for drafting and development, but the Cubs haven't had a 2nd-round pick produce more than 0.5 bWAR since Maddux in 1984.

Of course, players like Soto, Samardzija, and Barney were drafted after the second round and cleared that bar fairly easily in the last year.

[davell]

Yeah, I don't think I can look at it that way. I definitely can't look at an exact draft spot and see that we're completely unable to find a guy that helps us in the future, either on the field or thru trade. Nor do I see anyone that I listed as getting qualified as being someone we actually would want or need, other than Upton, if the bidding stays even borderline reasonable? Do you?

 

I think you don't have to look at the exact draft spot to be realistic about the value of the prospect you are going to get there. There are two phases of the MLB draft: the first round, and then a gigantic craps shoot of lottery tickets. 2nd-round picks fall into the latter category. I'm not particularly worried about losing out on one. The possible trade value of a mediocre MLB player we sign >>>> the value of a 2nd-round draft pick.

 

From your list, I'd have no problem sacrificing a 2nd-round pick for any of the 3b and most of the pitchers. Haven't really looked at the outfielders too closely.

 

Now, granted, the Cubs aren't exactly a model franchise for drafting and development, but the Cubs haven't had a 2nd-round pick produce more than 0.5 bWAR since Maddux in 1984.

 

That list I just posted are the guys we should be able to choose from WITHOUT giving up picks. The other list, I posted earlier, probably not in list form, so here it is.....

 

SP- Greinke, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson

 

OF- Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher

 

I think that was everyone I thought had a chance at receiving the qualifier. Kyle Lohse goes on the other list as someone we conceivably could get without one, by the way.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Of course, players like Soto, Samardzija, and Barney were drafted after the second round and cleared that bar fairly easily in the last year.

 

Which is precisely my point.

 

After the first round, the draft is just about loading up on a bunch of long-shots. You get 19 lottery tickets in rounds 2-20. Losing your second-round pick just means you only get 18 lottery tickets.

 

I'm not saying a 2nd-rounder is no better than a 20th rounder, but he's a lot closer to a 5th-rounder than he is a first-rounder. I really don't care about losing a second-round pick because even though that sounds really high, and in a league like the NFL it's really important, in MLB that's just the first of many poo-flingings.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

SP- Greinke, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson

 

OF- Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher

 

I think that was everyone I thought had a chance at receiving the qualifier. Kyle Lohse goes on the other list as someone we conceivably could get without one, by the way.

 

Yeah, there's obviously not a player on that list that isn't worth sacrificing a second-round pick for. Worst comes to worst, you trade them in 2014 and get a way better prospect than your 2nd-round pick probably turned out to be.

[KingCubsFan]

Of course, players like Soto, Samardzija, and Barney were drafted after the second round and cleared that bar fairly easily in the last year.

 

Which is precisely my point.

 

After the first round, the draft is just about loading up on a bunch of long-shots. You get 19 lottery tickets in rounds 2-20. Losing your second-round pick just means you only get 18 lottery tickets.

 

I'm not saying a 2nd-rounder is no better than a 20th rounder, but he's a lot closer to a 5th-rounder than he is a first-rounder. I really don't care about losing a second-round pick because even though that sounds really high, and in a league like the NFL it's really important, in MLB that's just the first of many poo-flingings.

I think it's even less than the first round. More like the first 10 or so picks followed by lottery tickets.

[davell]

SP- Greinke, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson

 

OF- Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher

 

I think that was everyone I thought had a chance at receiving the qualifier. Kyle Lohse goes on the other list as someone we conceivably could get without one, by the way.

 

Yeah, there's obviously not a player on that list that isn't worth sacrificing a second-round pick for. Worst comes to worst, you trade them in 2014 and get a way better prospect than your 2nd-round pick probably turned out to be.

It's not as simple as that though. Pretty close to everyone on that list will require a 4-5 year commitment. So the question becomes who off THAT list do you want for that length of time? Like I said, I understand Upton, but not anyone else.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Yeah, I don't think I can look at it that way. I definitely can't look at an exact draft spot and see that we're completely unable to find a guy that helps us in the future, either on the field or thru trade. Nor do I see anyone that I listed as getting qualified as being someone we actually would want or need, other than Upton, if the bidding stays even borderline reasonable? Do you?

 

I think you don't have to look at the exact draft spot to be realistic about the value of the prospect you are going to get there. There are two phases of the MLB draft: the first round, and then a gigantic craps shoot of lottery tickets. 2nd-round picks fall into the latter category. I'm not particularly worried about losing out on one. The possible trade value of a mediocre MLB player we sign >>>> the value of a 2nd-round draft pick.

 

From your list, I'd have no problem sacrificing a 2nd-round pick for any of the 3b and most of the pitchers. Haven't really looked at the outfielders too closely.

 

Now, granted, the Cubs aren't exactly a model franchise for drafting and development, but the Cubs haven't had a 2nd-round pick produce more than 0.5 bWAR since Maddux in 1984.

 

That list I just posted are the guys we should be able to choose from WITHOUT giving up picks. The other list, I posted earlier, probably not in list form, so here it is.....

 

SP- Greinke, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson

 

OF- Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher

 

I think that was everyone I thought had a chance at receiving the qualifier. Kyle Lohse goes on the other list as someone we conceivably could get without one, by the way.

 

Wait, Greinke, Dempster and Sanchez can't receive the qualifier. Correct?

[davell]

Crap, that's right. I keep foegetting those 3 were dealt and can't be. At any rate, it'll take a gigantic commitment to Greinkw, likeky a 4-5 year deal for Sanchez and a multiyear deal for Dempster.

[Gilby]

I bet Marcum gets one too. The Brewers were willing to take a chance on K-Rod last offseason.

[davell]

Possible. I figure at this point, we'll have Shark, Garza, Wood, a guy like Marcum or Liriano, maybe Villanueva as an upside type, and a trade for a guy that may be able to contribute as well, like a Delgado or Straily. Plus Vizcaino.