Brett Jackson

[Guest]

If you're talking about the K rate being indicative of a physical, nigh unfixable flaw, then I think the chronology is important. To repeat what I said earlier, if Jackson's K rate is because he just doesn't have the hit tool to hit advanced pitching well enough, then pitchers wouldn't have waited until after 100 games at AAA to really make him look silly and spike his K rate.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If you're talking about the K rate being indicative of a physical, nigh unfixable flaw, then I think the chronology is important. To repeat what I said earlier, if Jackson's K rate is because he just doesn't have the hit tool to hit advanced pitching well enough, then pitchers wouldn't have waited until after 100 games at AAA to really make him look silly and spike his K rate.

 

 

28% is still making him look pretty silly.

 

And it's possible that since advanced scouting is not a major priority in AAA, it did take awhile.

[C.C.]

The exposure of Jackson by Kyle is a joy. Cubs fans overrate all minor league talent.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Last 23 PAs (since his 1/3, HR, 2 BB game, after which the theory that he's made an adjustment was put forth by multiple posters, based on splitting up his sample):

 

105/261/105, 4 BB, 11 K

 

The sample is the sample. Chopping it up arbitrarily to try to make points just introduces bias.

[Guest]

The exposure of Jackson by Kyle is a joy. Cubs fans overrate all minor league talent.

 

actually, average cubs fans underrate all minor league talent. people like you just assume they're going to suck. then if/when they start out slow, you revel in the player's failures.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The exposure of Jackson by Kyle is a joy. Cubs fans overrate all minor league talent.

 

actually, average cubs fans underrate all minor league talent. people like you just assume they're going to suck. then if/when they start out slow, you revel in the player's failures.

 

I can't speak for C.C. I'm not reveling. I'm just taking solace that while it may suck, it's better to be right than self-delusional when facing uncomfortable truths.

 

Brett Jackson struck out in his only appearance today as a PH. That is his 200th strikeout of the season, in 566 PA, a 35.3% rate with an 82/18 split between AAA in the majors.

 

If all 200 had come in the majors, he would now have the 5th spot on the all-time list. He would have 28 games remaining to accumulate the 23 additional strikeouts needed to tie the all-time record.

 

I can't find an all-time K% leaderboard, but 35.3% would be second among the top 10 total K seasons of all time, behind only Mark Reynolds' 35.4% on his way to 211 Ks in 2010.

 

Out of the five different players who appear in the top 10, four have 30 HR seasons to their name (Jackson's career high is 20, though has is already at 19 this year). The remaining player is Drew Stubbs, who struck out 205 times in 681 PA (30.4%) in 2011.

[Guest]

i wasn't talking about you. i generally agree that jackson is likely going to suck. i think most of the board thinks that's the most likely scenario, too.

[XZero771679666304]

i wasn't talking about you. i generally agree that jackson is likely going to suck. i think most of the board thinks that's the most likely scenario, too.

 

Yeah, it doesn't look promising. And there are posters here who have been predicting Jackson as a likely bust for a long time now, and unless something drastically changes it appears that is the likely outcome. I don't think anyone isn't alarmed by Jackson's inability to make contact, especially with pitches in the zone.

 

It's not some sort of revelation, either. Even when he was performing well at lower levels, potentially serious contact issues were always looming.

[El Duderino]

The exposure of Jackson by Kyle is a joy. Cubs fans overrate all minor league talent.

 

My god, you are the worst.

[Magnetic Curses]

the very

[Guest]

The exposure of Jackson by Kyle is a joy. Cubs fans overrate all minor league talent.

 

Man, if not for Kyle, no one would have ever though Brett Jackson's ability to make contact would be an issue. Quite a few Cubs fans overrate him and this has been a pattern all the way back to the day he was drafted.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

My influence reverberates backwards through time.

[Guest]

funny how revolted the board was when jackson was drafted.

[Guest]

funny how revolted the board was when jackson was drafted.

 

Yeah, I didn't like the pick at all but, hey, looks like most of us were wrong there. He's turned out better than just about anyone in the sandwich round besides (probably) Tyler Skaggs and James Paxton.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think he's maybe just a smidge high on XBH/BIP and HR/FB ratio right now, but for the most part all of Jackson's high-variance peripherals are back into reasonable ranges.

[Tyrant]

The exposure of Jackson by Kyle is a joy. Cubs fans overrate all minor league talent.

 

Yeah, there are few things more joyous than listening to a pedant repeatedly crap all over a young player.

[minnesotacubsfan]

My influence reverberates backwards through time.

 

 

this is true, you are backwards in time.

[Guest]

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24563479&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_video_24563479

[davell]

Yeah, he can stay.

[Coach C]

That was serious grit, right there. Heck of a catch.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Up to 125 PAs.

 

The BB rate is stubbornly staying up at 15.2%, so that's really encouraging. There doesn't appear to have been any loss of BB-ability when going from AAA to the majors like I thought there would be.

 

The K-rate is still right around where it stabilized, currently 42.4%. Short of a major adjustment that's about a year overdue at this point, I don't see that changing.

 

Regression to the mean hit the high-variance peripherals pretty hard and they are now right about where they should be:

14.3% XBH/BIP is right about normal for somewhat fast line-drive hitter.

20.0% HR/FB ratio is still a smidge high, imo, but close to what we can expect from him (career MiLB of 18.3% according to MLC).

.286 BABIP is a smidge low, balancing out the HR/FB variance.

 

The result is a 170/296/358 slash line for a .654 OPS. I think you might be able to justify giving him a reserve OF spot next season based on those numbers. So long as he can BB enough to keep his OBP at .300, you could do worse in the Reed Johnson role, and he's young enough to keep around on the slim prayer that he learns how to hit.

[davell]

I can't imagine them not bringing in a vet of some sort, but Levine acted(yeah, I know) that he would be the CF next year and Sappelt would be the 4th OFer. Personally, I expect a Ryan Sweeney type added, to where if Brett doesn't improve, we at least have some semblance of a legit major league caliber player out there the majority of the time.

[KingCubsFan]

I can't imagine them not bringing in a vet of some sort, but Levine acted(yeah, I know) that he would be the CF next year and Sappelt would be the 4th OFer. Personally, I expect a Ryan Sweeney type added, to where if Brett doesn't improve, we at least have some semblance of a legit major league caliber player out there the majority of the time.

Since next year is a lost year anyways, I think they give him most of the year to see if he can figure things out. That will have given him almost a full season of working with the major league coaching staff. At that point, if the K's are still too high, and he's putting up a mid-.600 OPS, I think they'll look elsewhere (and bring in the Ryan Sweeney type you mentioned). If you have a guy like that on the bench all year, I think the temptation is just too much for a manager to put that guy in on a regular basis.

[abuck1220]

Up to 125 PAs.

 

The BB rate is stubbornly staying up at 15.2%, so that's really encouraging. There doesn't appear to have been any loss of BB-ability when going from AAA to the majors like I thought there would be.

 

The K-rate is still right around where it stabilized, currently 42.4%. Short of a major adjustment that's about a year overdue at this point, I don't see that changing.

 

 

 

nobody cares

[abuck1220]

to clarify, nobody cares what you think. people probably do care about his k rate or whatever you were carrying on about.