Brett Jackson

[Guest]

What I'm objecting to in a broader sense than just Brett Jackson is the implication that stats have an ebb and flow over large samples, so that if there was a recent surge at the end of the sample, you should assume it would have gone down if the sample had gone on a little longer. He struck out X times in Y plate appearances. Unless you can point to a specific change like breaking his wrist or getting hit in the head or something, I'm not sure why being called up "in the middle of a slump" is relevant.

 

Actually, I think the opposite needs that burden of proof. We have over 1600 PAs and about 500 at AAA of Jackson being one guy in terms of K-rate(compare to the "K-Rate stabilizes at 50 PAs" commentary on his MLB performance), and then in the most recent surge, that rate jumps 8-10%. So unless there's a compelling reason as to why he's all of a sudden getting figured out after all this time(especially after all that time in one level), I'm definitely more inclined to think of it as a bump in the road than a flaw he'll have extreme difficulty fixing.

 

The compelling reason is that he faced a higher level of competition.

 

He was an established 20-25% K-rate guy at AA and lower. The fact that it jumped significantly in AAA and again in the majors points to me to a flaw that more advanced pitching can regularly exploit. In layman's terms, he's a guy who can only hit hangers and take balls, and he's getting exposed by pitchers who can make non-hanging pitches inside the zone consistently.

 

I feel like we're stuck in a loop here so I'll just say this and you can comment how you like.

 

Jackson's K rate thru AA: 23%

Jackson's K rate thru 463 AAA PAs: 28%

Jackson's K rate in his final 248 PAs: 37%

 

Jackson's K rate rose at AAA like you would expect, but hardly to insane levels that would extrapolate to monstrous MLB K rates. He was also incredibly productive during that timeframe. Then over the last 2 months, something happened where he was much easier to K than his entire career, and that has continued in his brief MLB time. It's clear that something needs to change from his recent form in order for him to be a viable major leaguer. What I'm saying is that I have serious doubts that it is some physical limitation that advanced pitchers can exploit and Jackson is powerless to fix, thus writing off his MLB future. AAA pitchers wouldn't have waited 90 games across 2 seasons to start making him look silly if it were that simple. More likely, I think Jackson needs to make a mechanical adjustment(or reversion, I'm not going to claim expertise there) that makes him less susceptible to these swings and misses in the zone, because it's been shown pretty clearly his K's are not discipline or pitch recognition-related. Maybe he'll figure that out, and maybe he won't, I'm encouraged by the progress he's made in short spurts at the MLB level(first 8 games: 51%; next 8 games: 43%; last 9 games: 29%). But I'm going to need a more compelling reason than "34% in total this year means 40% at the MLB level indefinitely is the most likely outcome" to have such a dogmatically pessimistic outlook for Jackson's future.

[Guest]

I just figured the rest of Brett Jackson's Ks and plate appearances at AAA didn't matter because his K-rate stabilized after his first 60 plate appearances.

[davell]

Didn't his higher K rate basically start around the time Rizzo got promoted? I always thought he began pressing personally and he just made things worse. I think he'll be OK and go into next year as our starting CFer.

[Guest]

Saying that he had a stable strikeout rate that suddenly blew up is a bit disingenuous:

 

2010 A+:  20.2%
2010 AA:  23.6%
2011 AA:  24.7%
2011 AAA: 29.8%
2012 AAA: 33.8%
2012 MLB: 41.1%

 

I don't see a recent phenomenon as much as I see a distinct trend.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

I feel like we're stuck in a loop here so I'll just say this and you can comment how you like.

 

Jackson's K rate thru AA: 23%

Jackson's K rate thru 463 AAA PAs: 28%

Jackson's K rate in his final 248 PAs: 37%

 

Jackson's K rate rose at AAA like you would expect, but hardly to insane levels that would extrapolate to monstrous MLB K rates.

 

I actually dunno about that. 28% in AAA projects to something borderline monstrous in the majors.

 

 

He was also incredibly productive during that timeframe.

 

I also don't know if I'd agree with that. He was an above-average AAA hitter. But incredibly productive? Meh. We've had three hitters promoted from that crazy hitters environment, and the big step backs of all three are beginning to make me believe that it's the league more than the players.

 

Then over the last 2 months, something happened where he was much easier to K than his entire career, and that has continued in his brief MLB time. It's clear that something needs to change from his recent form in order for him to be a viable major leaguer. What I'm saying is that I have serious doubts that it is some physical limitation that advanced pitchers can exploit and Jackson is powerless to fix, thus writing off his MLB future. AAA pitchers wouldn't have waited 90 games across 2 seasons to start making him look silly if it were that simple. More likely, I think Jackson needs to make a mechanical adjustment(or reversion, I'm not going to claim expertise there) that makes him less susceptible to these swings and misses in the zone, because it's been shown pretty clearly his K's are not discipline or pitch recognition-related. Maybe he'll figure that out, and maybe he won't, I'm encouraged by the progress he's made in short spurts at the MLB level(first 8 games: 51%; next 8 games: 43%; last 9 games: 29%). But I'm going to need a more compelling reason than "34% in total this year means 40% at the MLB level indefinitely is the most likely outcome" to have such a dogmatically pessimistic outlook for Jackson's future.

 

And I'm going to need something more than "fun with arbitrary endpoints" to convince me that we should expect things to change. You're cherry picking your endpoint to find the story you want to tell, instead of just using the entire sample.

 

We can split the sample a hundred different ways and come up with any story we want. You want to tell the "he's made an adjustment" story by picking out his last nine games. I'll say that he's back up to 37% in his last five games, so the adjustment must not have stuck.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I just figured the rest of Brett Jackson's Ks and plate appearances at AAA didn't matter because his K-rate stabilized after his first 60 plate appearances.

 

I figured none of it mattered, because he's a Cubs prospect so we just pick whichever one of slash lines/tools/peripherals made him look the best, chop the sample up to make him look even better, and then just ignored everything else.

[El Duderino]

How about we just let him play, and quit worrying about predicting his future production?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How about we just let him play, and quit worrying about predicting his future production?

 

I didn't know we weren't letting him play.

 

Sorry Brett, my bad. Didn't mean to ballblock you.

[davell]

Brett has shown some very nice abilities since being called up. It's only right we try to be positive about him, because he MAY be a longterm piece here. But it's not anything close to being outright homerism either, because I see no one saying anything about Vitters, other than he definitely needs more time in AAA. Brett cutting his K's a tad is about all he needs to do. Sveum helped Rizzo quite a bit, it can happen here too. It's not a Festivus miracle if a guy like Brett becomes a longterm starter for us.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Brett has shown some very nice abilities since being called up. It's only right we try to be positive about him, because he MAY be a longterm piece here. But it's not anything close to being outright homerism either, because I see no one saying anything about Vitters, other than he definitely needs more time in AAA. Brett cutting his K's a tad is about all he needs to do. Sveum helped Rizzo quite a bit, it can happen here too. It's not a Festivus miracle if a guy like Brett becomes a longterm starter for us.

 

The "nice abilities" consist of an incredible BB rate and some extreme success in areas that are known to be highly prone to variance.

 

If this were a Cardinals prospect, and we were good enough to care what other teams did, the phrase "pixie dust" would be flying liberally.

[davell]

Yeah, you're beyond "over the top" at this point. He's shown 20/20 ability and good D in CF at every stop. No one thinks he's a 40-40 monster moving forward. But a 30-35% K rate, coupled with a nice walk rate and some pop can turn into a very nice player. Instead of dooming a guy to fail, any realistic fan of a team in our current position should be somewhat optimistic of what he can turn into.

[Warpticon]

Saying that he had a stable strikeout rate that suddenly blew up is a bit disingenuous:

 

2010 A+:  20.2%
2010 AA:  23.6%
2011 AA:  24.7%
2011 AAA: 29.8%
2012 AAA: 33.8%
2012 MLB: 41.1%

 

I don't see a recent phenomenon as much as I see a distinct trend.

 

You don't think a 9% jump in K rate at the same level stands out at all?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

By the way, Jackson would have to K 4 out of his next 8 plate appearances to end his first 100 PAs at over a 40% K rate.

 

He got there in five just to take the drama out. Back up to 42%.

 

It sucks being right about this. A 230/330/450 hitting Jackson in CF would do wonders for the next few seasons.

Edited September 2, 2012 by Hairyducked Idiot

[javy knows my name]

By the way, Jackson would have to K 4 out of his next 8 plate appearances to end his first 100 PAs at over a 40% K rate.

 

He got there in five just to take the drama out. Back up to 43%.

 

It sucks being right about this. A 230/330/450 hitting Jackson in CF would do wonders for the next few seasons.

 

No one is right about anything, you goon. It's 100 PAs for a 24 year old making his ML debut.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

By the way, Jackson would have to K 4 out of his next 8 plate appearances to end his first 100 PAs at over a 40% K rate.

 

He got there in five just to take the drama out. Back up to 43%.

 

It sucks being right about this. A 230/330/450 hitting Jackson in CF would do wonders for the next few seasons.

 

No one is right about anything, you goon. It's 100 PAs for a 24 year old making his ML debut.

 

We throw out the 100 PAs. Then we throw out the last 250 PAs of AAA. Keep throwing stuff out and he'll be a fresh-faced first-round draft pick again.

[javy knows my name]

*Neil DeGrasse Tyson face*

[Hairyducked Idiot]

*Neil DeGrasse Tyson face*

 

I don't know who that is. Can he play 3b or CF? We will likely have holes at both positions for 2013.

[Guest]

Saying that he had a stable strikeout rate that suddenly blew up is a bit disingenuous:

 

2010 A+:  20.2%
2010 AA:  23.6%
2011 AA:  24.7%
2011 AAA: 29.8%
2012 AAA: 33.8%
2012 MLB: 41.1%

 

I don't see a recent phenomenon as much as I see a distinct trend.

 

You don't think a 9% jump in K rate at the same level stands out at all?

Where did that happen?

[Warpticon]

Saying that he had a stable strikeout rate that suddenly blew up is a bit disingenuous:

 

2010 A+:  20.2%
2010 AA:  23.6%
2011 AA:  24.7%
2011 AAA: 29.8%
2012 AAA: 33.8%
2012 MLB: 41.1%

 

I don't see a recent phenomenon as much as I see a distinct trend.

 

You don't think a 9% jump in K rate at the same level stands out at all?

Where did that happen?

 

I feel like we're stuck in a loop here so I'll just say this and you can comment how you like.

 

Jackson's K rate thru AA: 23%

Jackson's K rate thru 463 AAA PAs: 28%

Jackson's K rate in his final 248 PAs: 37%

[imb]

quit giving kyle a reason to live

[Hairyducked Idiot]

quit giving kyle a reason to live

 

 

Dear diary,

 

Brett struck out 3 times in 4 PAs today. No one will probably want to talk to me now. At least when he hits, they taunt. The pain is the only thing that's real.

[CubColtPacer]

I think Kyle is likely right with a big caveat attached. First, some evidence. Even if we throw out Jackson's last section of AAA AB's where it spiked to 37%, as Kyle said 28% is still really bad for AAA. Here are the top 10 qualified players in strikeouts this year and their AAA strikeout rate:

 

Adam Dunn: 20.1%

Pedro Alvarez: 25.8%

Carlos Pena: 21.7%

Chris Davis: 23.7%

Drew Stubbs: 22.3%

Dan Uggla (AA stats as he was never at AAA): 17.8%

Curtis Granderson: 24.9%

Danny Espinosa: 20.4%

Kelley Johnson: 12.1%

B.J. Upton: 20.3%

 

So even if we take Jackson at his best split possible, he still was well worse than all these high strikeout hitters. That's a massive red flag. It's not like his AAA numbers are a terribly small sample size, and it's not the first time his K numbers have been crazy high for his level either (his last year of college was highly problematic as well). Without any changes, it's hard to project him for anything less than 35% at the major league level, and 40% as Kyle has mentioned is definitely possible.

 

The caveat is that I believe there is some reason for hope. It's quite probable that the previous regime never really worked hard on changing his swing because of the amount of success he was having. And he seems like an ideal candidate for a mechanical change because he doesn't have to worry about refining his approach while doing so. A successful overhaul could throw the previous projections out the window. But I am concerned that a mechanical change that takes away some of his strikeouts will also negatively influence his power.

 

So I think the book is mostly shut on the current iteration of Brett Jackson, but I think there is more room for change than most people in his position have.

[Tracer Bullet]

This thread doesn't have to be about Kyle

[minnesotacubsfan]

quit giving kyle a reason to live

 

 

Dear diary,

 

Brett struck out 3 times in 4 PAs today. No one will probably want to talk to me now. At least when he hits, they taunt. The pain is the only thing that's real.

 

HEY LOOK EVERYBODY KYLE LIKES NIN

[Guest]

Saying that he had a stable strikeout rate that suddenly blew up is a bit disingenuous:

 

2010 A+:  20.2%
2010 AA:  23.6%
2011 AA:  24.7%
2011 AAA: 29.8%
2012 AAA: 33.8%
2012 MLB: 41.1%

 

I don't see a recent phenomenon as much as I see a distinct trend.

 

You don't think a 9% jump in K rate at the same level stands out at all?

Where did that happen?

 

I feel like we're stuck in a loop here so I'll just say this and you can comment how you like.

 

Jackson's K rate thru AA: 23%

Jackson's K rate thru 463 AAA PAs: 28%

Jackson's K rate in his final 248 PAs: 37%

Ah...

 

So it's the arbitrary end points where you can get the 9% bump. No I don't think that's important. You can always find weird splits like that if you try to find the right end points.