8/7 Cubs (Raley) @ Padres (Ohlendorf) - 9:05 pm CT, CSN+

[Cubswin11]

Castro's last 37 games (Since June 24)

 

.197 BA (28-142)

.259 OBP

.338 SLG

.597 OPS

Has it been reported at all that they have tried to get him to change his approach to have more patience/see more pitches? And now he's just entirely messed up.

 

He still has zero patience. He came up right after a walk tonight and I told everyone sitting by me that I'd bet them $20 that he swings at the first pitch. He does, and flies out to CF. So predictable.

Like Truffle said, I'm very concerned about his lack of progression this season.

 

 

That's not exactly true. He just hasn't been hitting so you haven't noticed, but his walk rate is up and his IsoD in that period is .062. That'd lead to a pretty decent OBP if he weren't hitting .197.

His BABIP is also down about .040 points compared to 2010-2011 while his LD, GB, and FB % are all right around his career averages.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Castro's last 37 games (Since June 24)

 

.197 BA (28-142)

.259 OBP

.338 SLG

.597 OPS

Has it been reported at all that they have tried to get him to change his approach to have more patience/see more pitches? And now he's just entirely messed up.

 

He still has zero patience. He came up right after a walk tonight and I told everyone sitting by me that I'd bet them $20 that he swings at the first pitch. He does, and flies out to CF. So predictable.

Like Truffle said, I'm very concerned about his lack of progression this season.

 

 

That's not exactly true. He just hasn't been hitting so you haven't noticed, but his walk rate is up and his IsoD in that period is .062. That'd lead to a pretty decent OBP if he weren't hitting .197.

His BABIP is also down about .040 points compared to 2010-2011 while his LD, GB, and FB % are all right around his career averages.

 

I think that says more about his BABIP from 2010-11 than this year. .345 was never going to be sustainable for him.

[Cubswin11]

I think that says more about his BABIP from 2010-11 than this year. .345 was never going to be sustainable for him.

You think? With Castro's ability to make contact and put the ball in play he seems like a guy who will be able to sustain a higher BABIP. Maybe not .340-.350 high, but he's down to almost .300 this year. I'd think he should be able to settle in about .320 or so. No?

[Guest]

I think that says more about his BABIP from 2010-11 than this year. .345 was never going to be sustainable for him.

You think? With Castro's ability to make contact and put the ball in play he seems like a guy who will be able to sustain a higher BABIP. Maybe not .340-.350 high, but he's down to almost .300 this year. I'd think he should be able to settle in about .320 or so. No?

 

That's just Kyle being Kyle.

 

He has sustained very high BABIPs at every level of baseball (something like .347 through his 845 minor league PA - which obviously isn't the same as doing it in MLB) and he sustained around .345 for like 1221 PA (actually more, because he was up there for the first couple of months of this year, too, IIRC).

 

 

I'm not saying he definitely can sustain .340's for most of his career, but I don't think the last couple of months are some sort of proof that he can't.

Edited August 8, 2012 by David

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think that says more about his BABIP from 2010-11 than this year. .345 was never going to be sustainable for him.

You think? With Castro's ability to make contact and put the ball in play he seems like a guy who will be able to sustain a higher BABIP. Maybe not .340-.350 high, but he's down to almost .300 this year. I'd think he should be able to settle in about .320 or so. No?

 

That's just Kyle being Kyle.

 

He has sustained very high BABIPs at every level of baseball and he sustained around .345 for like 1221 PA (actually more, because he was up there for the first couple of months of this year, too, IIRC).

 

No, it's Kyle being right. There's no magic law that says you can't have positive variance two seasons in a row.

 

I don't think .300 is going to sustain itself either. His true, long-term ability will probably end up somewhere in the middle. I could even buy .330.

[Guest]

No, it's Kyle being right.

 

 

You're right. It's an established fact that Castro was never going to be able to sustain a .345 BABIP, despite strong evidence to the contrary.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No, it's Kyle being right.

 

 

You're right. It's an established fact that Castro was never going to be able to sustain a .345 BABIP, despite strong evidence to the contrary.

 

So when you are projecting his numbers for 2013, you think using a .345 BABIP will be the most accurate prediction?

[Cubswin11]

I looked up BABIP numbers this years and McCutchen has a .420 BABIP, wow!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I looked up BABIP numbers this years and McCutchen has a .420 BABIP, wow!

 

That one seems sustainable.

[Guest]

No, it's Kyle being right.

 

 

You're right. It's an established fact that Castro was never going to be able to sustain a .345 BABIP, despite strong evidence to the contrary.

 

So when you are projecting his numbers for 2013, you think using a .345 BABIP will be the most accurate prediction?

 

Depends on whether his struggles have more to do with bad luck or an/the approach change we have all speculated about.

[Guest]

Castro doesn't even need to jump to a .345 BABIP to return to a .300 AVG. So setting aside that I don't think that Kyle's "regression below what Castro has consistently done over 2200 pro PAs is expected and normal" line of thinking is all that correct, he really should be expected to bounce back to the AVG he's put up in his first 1200 MLB PAs anyway.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Castro doesn't even need to jump to a .345 BABIP to return to a .300 AVG. So setting aside that I don't think that Kyle's "regression below what Castro has consistently done over 2200 pro PAs is expected and normal" line of thinking is all that correct, he really should be expected to bounce back to the AVG he's put up in his first 1200 MLB PAs anyway.

 

It is interesting that his minor league BABIP was also .346, but I think that supports my point. Some loss of BABIP when facing the best defenders in baseball is to be expected. Which is what we've seen, his MLB career BABIP is now .334 after almost 1700 PAs.

[Guest]

Castro doesn't even need to jump to a .345 BABIP to return to a .300 AVG. So setting aside that I don't think that Kyle's "regression below what Castro has consistently done over 2200 pro PAs is expected and normal" line of thinking is all that correct, he really should be expected to bounce back to the AVG he's put up in his first 1200 MLB PAs anyway.

 

It is interesting that his minor league BABIP was also .346, but I think that supports my point. Some loss of BABIP when facing the best defenders in baseball is to be expected. Which is what we've seen, his MLB career BABIP is now .334 after almost 1700 PAs.

 

 

Is defense really collectively that much worse in the minors or is the major gap in talent among position players hitting related?

[CubColtPacer]

Castro doesn't even need to jump to a .345 BABIP to return to a .300 AVG. So setting aside that I don't think that Kyle's "regression below what Castro has consistently done over 2200 pro PAs is expected and normal" line of thinking is all that correct, he really should be expected to bounce back to the AVG he's put up in his first 1200 MLB PAs anyway.

 

It is interesting that his minor league BABIP was also .346, but I think that supports my point. Some loss of BABIP when facing the best defenders in baseball is to be expected. Which is what we've seen, his MLB career BABIP is now .334 after almost 1700 PAs.

 

 

Is defense really collectively that much worse in the minors or is the major gap in talent among position players hitting related?

 

It's hard to say why it is. Maybe the defense is worse, and field conditions probably have something to do with it too. The minor leagues do tend to have slightly higher BABIP's though. Every league in the minors last year had at least a .300 BABIP against (the Cubs leagues go as follows: PCL .329, SL .312, FSL .313, Midwest .306, Northwest .315, Arizona .342). The major league median (couldn't find the average) was .294.

[Sammy Sofa]

Castro's last 37 games (Since June 24)

 

.197 BA (28-142)

.259 OBP

.338 SLG

.597 OPS

Has it been reported at all that they have tried to get him to change his approach to have more patience/see more pitches? And now he's just entirely messed up.

 

He still has zero patience. He came up right after a walk tonight and I told everyone sitting by me that I'd bet them $20 that he swings at the first pitch. He does, and flies out to CF. So predictable.

 

He got a good pitch and drove a shot to CF. You're talking like he was flailing and hit a weak dribbler or a lazy fly.

[SouthSideRyan]

I bet that guy didn't really bet 20 bucks.

[jersey cubs fan]

I bet that guy didn't really bet 20 bucks.

 

He bet everybody sitting by him, so that was probably 20 bucks 10-15 times over. That's a pretty good haul.

[23sharks]

I bet that guy didn't really bet 20 bucks.

 

He bet everybody sitting by him, so that was probably 20 bucks 10-15 times over. That's a pretty good haul.

 

Easy money Goony. :)