Moving forward- very early look at 2013

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

How much of his defensive ability is due to Maddon? Given Soriano's defensive numbers this year, I'm beginning to wonder how much of Upton's value is tied to the manager. Taking a quick look at Carl Crawford last year, his UZR fell off a cliff when he got to Boston. I'd be interested to see the defensive measurements for Rays players after they leave.

 

I'm not opposed to Upton, but Wrigley's small outfield + Sveum's apparent defensive positioning skills makes me wonder if we couldn't make Brett Jackson into a similar player at a fraction of the cost.

 

1. Check out Soriano's defensive numbers before this year as an OF. The only thing really changing is his reputation, and he still has his awkward moments he's always had.

 

2. Boston is a drastically different LF than any other LF in the league, and probably required/requires some adjustments from Crawford. There were a great deal of people who questioned the Crawford signing for Boston because his defense was such a big part of his value and that LF kind of negates his ridiculous range. Crawford was awesome defensively long before Maddon.

 

3. The defensive positioning is probably often contingent on the defensive skill of the player. Also, smart players know how to position themselves anyway, and coaches and players have done it for decade. It just happens to be getting press now, and with more analysis of hitters' habits its becoming easier to defend for specific hitters and specific situations.

[Guest]

1. Check out Soriano's defensive numbers before this year as an OF. The only thing really changing is his reputation, and he still has his awkward moments he's always had.

 

 

That's not true. He had been pretty damn shitty and deserving of his bad reputation in recent years. And his reputation hasn't changed at all. I'm pretty sure most people still think he sucks.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

1. Check out Soriano's defensive numbers before this year as an OF. The only thing really changing is his reputation, and he still has his awkward moments he's always had.

 

 

That's not true. He had been pretty damn [expletive] and deserving of his bad reputation in recent years. And his reputation hasn't changed at all. I'm pretty sure most people still think he sucks.

 

Just going by Fangrahps, which I'm pretty sure is where the early optimism comes from (unless I missed another numbers post at some point), he's been above average every year but 2009 as a Cub. His rep has just been hurt by the fact that the Cubs originally signed him as as a CF, which he's not, and that he's an awkward gangly f'er out there.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if most still think he sucks. He's always going to have that rep and he's never going to not look awkward out there.

[Guest]

1. Check out Soriano's defensive numbers before this year as an OF. The only thing really changing is his reputation, and he still has his awkward moments he's always had.

 

 

That's not true. He had been pretty damn [expletive] and deserving of his bad reputation in recent years. And his reputation hasn't changed at all. I'm pretty sure most people still think he sucks.

 

Just going by Fangrahps, which I'm pretty sure is where the early optimism comes from (unless I missed another numbers post at some point), he's been above average every year but 2009 as a Cub. His rep has just been hurt by the fact that the Cubs originally signed him as as a CF, which he's not, and that he's an awkward gangly f'er out there.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if most still think he sucks. He's always going to have that rep and he's never going to not look awkward out there.

 

I could be wrong, but I didn't think -2.9, 5.1, and 3.4 (his totals in 09, 10, and 11) runs above replacement qualified as above average.

[treebird]

1. Check out Soriano's defensive numbers before this year as an OF. The only thing really changing is his reputation, and he still has his awkward moments he's always had.

 

 

That's not true. He had been pretty damn [expletive] and deserving of his bad reputation in recent years. And his reputation hasn't changed at all. I'm pretty sure most people still think he sucks.

 

Just going by Fangrahps, which I'm pretty sure is where the early optimism comes from (unless I missed another numbers post at some point), he's been above average every year but 2009 as a Cub. His rep has just been hurt by the fact that the Cubs originally signed him as as a CF, which he's not, and that he's an awkward gangly f'er out there.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if most still think he sucks. He's always going to have that rep and he's never going to not look awkward out there.

 

I could be wrong, but I didn't think -2.9, 5.1, and 3.4 (his totals in 09, 10, and 11) runs above replacement qualified as above average.

 

0.0 is average, not replacement level

[Guest]

1. Check out Soriano's defensive numbers before this year as an OF. The only thing really changing is his reputation, and he still has his awkward moments he's always had.

 

 

That's not true. He had been pretty damn [expletive] and deserving of his bad reputation in recent years. And his reputation hasn't changed at all. I'm pretty sure most people still think he sucks.

 

Just going by Fangrahps, which I'm pretty sure is where the early optimism comes from (unless I missed another numbers post at some point), he's been above average every year but 2009 as a Cub. His rep has just been hurt by the fact that the Cubs originally signed him as as a CF, which he's not, and that he's an awkward gangly f'er out there.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if most still think he sucks. He's always going to have that rep and he's never going to not look awkward out there.

 

I could be wrong, but I didn't think -2.9, 5.1, and 3.4 (his totals in 09, 10, and 11) runs above replacement qualified as above average.

 

0.0 is average, not replacement level

 

Ah, thanks. That makes sense now, looking at the chart.

[Pushfrog98]

We should probably send theo a link to that post

 

Anybody have his e-mail? Maybe the purple shirt guy does?

I don't have Theo's e-mail address, but I do have Tom Hellmann and Dana Noeltner's addresses. I also have the MLB GM distribution list, but we don't want to show that to ALL the GM's. I wonder if Tom or Dana could pass it along to Theo?

 

 

It should be noted that Dana is a dude.

[d_money]

I just don't see the Cubs spending too much next year. The need to fix up Wrigley has to be addressed and based on the political mess with Ricketts/Rahm-father earlier this week - the Cubs may look to do this rehab on their own.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I just don't see the Cubs spending too much next year. The need to fix up Wrigley has to be addressed and based on the political mess with Ricketts/Rahm-father earlier this week - the Cubs may look to do this rehab on their own.

 

That's not how it works.

[Little Slide Rooter]

After these past 8 games, it's time for me to re think my answer. I stand by some of it, but while I like the low risk/high reward guys, they should be supplementary. We have money and we have a big market team with a rabid fan base, and the main reason for assembling a front office like we did was so we can win now and in the long term. So for 2013 and beyind, what we have is:

 

The Core

Impact players:

 

-Anthony Rizzo 1B

-Starlin Castro SS

-Matt Garza SP: if we were to go the small market rout, I'd say trade him. Even if we were to win now, if we could get a package like Turner, Castalannos, and Porcello, I'd take it. If not we keep him and lock him up.

-Jeff Samardjzia SP: still on the fence as to whether he'll end up from end or mid but still valuable.

 

Next tier:

 

-Brett Jackson OF: the fact that he's striking out as much as he is and his overall performance lately makes me wonder if he'll be able to contribute as soon as we'd like. If he doesn't fix things he'll need another year or half a year in Iowa. I still have faith that he can be either a Chris Young type or worst case scenerio a productive 4th OF until the time he becomes too expensive.

-David DeJeus: I like him a lot. If someone wants to overpay for him, go for it. If not, he's a great block to build with.

-Travis Wood: 4-5 SP. again, if someone wants to overpay...

 

And then:

-Ian Stewart: unless Vitters or Lake emerge as big league options, there's no reason to go out of the way to fill 3B, especially if May is the real Stewart. However, if April is the real Stewart we might want to see what a year or 2 of Kevin Youklis would cost.

-Wellington Castillo/Geo Soto C: if we can't trade Soto between now and spring other doesn't rebound then let him battle it out with Castillo in ST. If he can rebound, either we sell or keep him around until he hits free agency.

-Josh Vitters: I really don't know what to make of this one. Could be the future 3B. Could try to work him into a trade for Dempster or Soriano and hope for the best from Stewart. One thing's for sure, I don't want to wake up one day to he's only 27 and starting to figure out AAA pitching.

-between Maholm, McNutt, and Rusin, no reason to go after another starter unless an offer we can't refuse presents itself. Maholm might be worth a little something in trade in July.

Role Players: spots that the old regime would have filled with free agents despite having internal options:

-Darwin Barney: 2B/utility IF: if nothing better comes along, we could do worse. Whatever becomes of his bat, his glove seperates him from Ryan Theriot by several miles.

-Adrian Cardenas: I'd love to see his bat develope and his defense improve to the point where he can turn Barney from an average at best starter to a well above average utility IF.

-Steve Clevenger: backup C.

-Tony Campana/Dave Sappelt/Bryan LaHair: there should be room for 2 of them. Despite his struggles this season Sappelt might get a spot by default, otherwise going by my plan we'd have 5 LH outfielders.

-Luis Valbuena: spare IF

- Junior Lake: probably more likely 2014 than '14, but he should be able to contribute at some capacity.

 

The bullpen: figured they need their own category:

 

-Carlos Marmol: if we can get any trade value, take it. If not, I'd rather hope he can be a serviceable 7-8 inning guy or even middle relief than eat 9.5MM for no reason

-James Russell: he's been great. Still not sold on him as an 8th inning guy, but I could be wrong.

-between Beliveau, Dolis, Cabrera, Parker, Bowden, and Batista, I like our chances at middle relief going forward.

 

Trade chips:

-Dempster should fetch something decent this summer.

-Maholm: teams tend to look for serviceable back end staters come summer.

-Wells, Baker, Johnson, Volstad, and Camp might bring us something minor. If not, whatever.

-Bryan LaHair: despite his recent struggles, I think that he still stabilizes somewhere between Jack Cust and Russ Branyan. Great to have if you're an AL team, but for an NL team he should probably be shopped, especially considering what looks to be a lefty heavy future

-Soriano: either get what we can or see how his knee surgery goes and give him one last run at LF if Jackson isn't ready or a very expensive platoon LF.

 

Wish list

-big bat.

A. Josh Hamilton: warts and all, hes the one avaialbe bat that should be able to really help turn our offense around. We have the resources, and id worse comes to worse we can afford one bad contract so long as we dont make a habit of it.

big gap

B. Andre Ethier: I know most prefer Upton

C. B.J. Upton

 

Big Arm:

A. Cole Hamels

B. Zack Greinke

Big gap

C. Brandon McCarthy

D. Anibal Sanchez

Huge gap

E. Francisco Liriano: only of we miss out on A-D and he comes at a low risk price.

F. "Hello, Mr. Sheets, we understand that you were once a very good professional baseball pitcher. Do you still perform those types of duties?"

Big bullpen arm:

Michael Adams: not sure why he's never been a closer but I'd love to give him the chance.

Additomal bullpen arm:

As I said before, someone like Bobby Jenks or Pete Moylan would make for a great low risk/high reward acquisition.

 

Ex top prospect type:

Perhaps the respective teams are willing to part with Travis Snider, Colby Rasmus, or Michael Taylor for a reasonable price. There's also Dom Brown but I can't see him coming that cheap regardless of how 2012 goes.

 

So when all is said and done, if it were up to me 2013 opening day roster would look something like:

 

DeJesus RF

Cardenas 2B

Hamilton CF

Rizzo 1B

Castro SS

Jackson LF

Castillo C

Stewart 3B

SP Hamels

SP Garza

SP Shark

SP Wood

SP Rusin-if nothing else to keep the spot warm for McNutt

CL Adams

BP Marmol

BP Russel

BP Moylan

BP Dolis

BP Beliveau

BP Cabrera

Bench Clevenger

Bench Barney

Bench Snider

Bench Sappelt

Bench Valbuena

[SouthSideRyan]

After these past 8 games, it's time for me to re think my answer.

 

Sentences should pretty much never start this way when talking about baseball.

[javy knows my name]

There is zero chance anyone reads that, right?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

There is zero chance anyone reads that, right?

Reads what?

[Guest]

1. Check out Soriano's defensive numbers before this year as an OF. The only thing really changing is his reputation, and he still has his awkward moments he's always had.

 

 

That's not true. He had been pretty damn [expletive] and deserving of his bad reputation in recent years. And his reputation hasn't changed at all. I'm pretty sure most people still think he sucks.

Because he does suck ass in the outfield. They only thing the Cubs have done is moving him back 5 or 6 steps so [expletive] doesn't get past him as easy.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Most people who think he's a bad left fielder have no idea how bad most left fielders are.

[KingCubsFan]

There is zero chance anyone reads that, right?

Looks like the Cubs' losing streak, coupled with Hamilton's ridiculous hot streak, means the Cubs should overpay for Hamilton.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

If not Hamilton then I think we go slightly older and less everything in Ethier.

 

Can't they just slightly overpay BJ Upton? He'll K and won't hit for great average, but he'll do everything else well and be 4-5 years younger than the other two.

[Little Slide Rooter]

There is zero chance anyone reads that, right?

Looks like the Cubs' losing streak, coupled with Hamilton's ridiculous hot streak, means the Cubs should overpay for Hamilton.

 

The fact that we're starved for offense kind of enters into it.

[dew1679666265]

If not Hamilton then I think we go slightly older and less everything in Ethier.

 

Can't they just slightly overpay BJ Upton? He'll K and won't hit for great average, but he'll do everything else well and be 4-5 years younger than the other two.

 

Upton seems like the perfect player for the Theo regime to pursue. Still in his prime, great defensively, good speed, undervalued skillset, likely to come for a slight value price (as other teams chase the bigger named Hamels/Hamilton/Ethier/Greinke).

 

If they pass on Upton and instead go after Hamilton or Ethier, I'll be pretty disappointed. Especially after passing on Cespedes last year.

[dew1679666265]

There is zero chance anyone reads that, right?

Looks like the Cubs' losing streak, coupled with Hamilton's ridiculous hot streak, means the Cubs should overpay for Hamilton.

 

The fact that we're starved for offense kind of enters into it.

 

Just seems like too much of a desperation move. This is a guy who has a higher than normal likelihood of falling off a cliff at any point. Too risky an investment, especially since there are good options out there (Upton/Drew).

[Tracer Bullet]

If not Hamilton then I think we go slightly older and less everything in Ethier.

 

Can't they just slightly overpay BJ Upton? He'll K and won't hit for great average, but he'll do everything else well and be 4-5 years younger than the other two.

 

Upton seems like the perfect player for the Theo regime to pursue. Still in his prime, great defensively, good speed, undervalued skillset, likely to come for a slight value price (as other teams chase the bigger named Hamels/Hamilton/Ethier/Greinke).

 

If they pass on Upton and instead go after Hamilton or Ethier, I'll be pretty disappointed. Especially after passing on Cespedes last year.

 

"Passing on" Cespedes? I agree on Upton.

[Cubswin11]

There is zero chance anyone reads that, right?

Looks like the Cubs' losing streak, coupled with Hamilton's ridiculous hot streak, means the Cubs should overpay for Hamilton.

 

The fact that we're starved for offense kind of enters into it.

 

Just seems like too much of a desperation move. This is a guy who has a higher than normal likelihood of falling off a cliff at any point. Too risky an investment, especially since there are good options out there (Upton/Drew).

Agreed, you could probably get one of Upton/Ethier (I really don't want Ethier, but he's one of the top 5 bats available) and Drew for about the same or even less money than Hamilton will get.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Speaking of awesome pitching this morning, potential future Cubs ace Cole Hamels on the mound this year:

 

62 IP / 50 H/ 16 R/ 15 ER (love only one unearned run so far, random)/ 5 HR/ 13 BB/ 66 K/ 2.61 FIP/ 2.89 xFIP

 

Not getting as many groundballs as last year (52.3 vs 42.7%), but he's also getting more swinging strikes (11.3 vs 13%) and again killing it on first pitch strikes.

 

Just saying if they sign this guy, Shark is real, and Garza sticks around suddenly they have one of the better top threes in the league, with possibly plenty of viable 4-5 options (Wood, Volstad, maybe resign Dempster, maybe McNutt shows up, and so on).

 

Make it happy Tanny! Er wrong team...Ricketts/Theo/Hoyer!

[dew1679666265]

"Passing on" Cespedes?

 

Yep, we pursued him but wouldn't give him the deal he wanted. Thus we passed on him.

[Exile on Waveland]

If not Hamilton then I think we go slightly older and less everything in Ethier.

 

Can't they just slightly overpay BJ Upton? He'll K and won't hit for great average, but he'll do everything else well and be 4-5 years younger than the other two.

 

Upton seems like the perfect player for the Theo regime to pursue. Still in his prime, great defensively, good speed, undervalued skillset, likely to come for a slight value price (as other teams chase the bigger named Hamels/Hamilton/Ethier/Greinke).

 

If they pass on Upton and instead go after Hamilton or Ethier, I'll be pretty disappointed. Especially after passing on Cespedes last year.

 

"Passing on" Cespedes? I agree on Upton.

 

Could the Cubs out-spend the Oakland freakin' A's? If the answer is "yes," then, yeah, they passed on Cespedes.

 

And yes please on Upton.