NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

[bukie]

NC State already played Indiana in the regular season, so that wouldn't work.

 

I also noticed UNC and Duke are in the same region now. Some fixes will be needed...

 

EDIT: Anyone can have at it if they want. Here are the stipulations:

- No two teams from the same conference in top 4 seeds in the same region. Except for the Big Ten, which has 5 teams in that group, and those teams in the same region should be on opposite sides of the region (a 1/4 with a 2/3)

- No home court disadvantage for top 5 seeds in the first two rounds (so a 4/5 game shouldn't provide any sort of home court advantage)

- No rematches in the first two rounds

- Competitive balance should be as equal as possible among the top 4 seeds (so if you add the S-Curve ranks of each top 4 seed in the region, they should be fairly equal region to region)

- BYU has to be set up in a Thurs-Sat pod in a Thurs-Sat region. Because BYU is special.

[bukie]

Norfolk State wins the MEAC.

 

St. Bonaventure beat UMass to make the A-10 final against the St. Louis-Xavier winner.

[Andy]

UNC and Duke can be in the same region. They have been before, I forget when. But I remember picking a UNC/Duke Elite 8 matchup that didn't happen. Maybe 2007?

 

We could just switch Drexel or USF with NC State to account for the NCST/IU rematch problem. No issue.

[bukie]

UNC and Duke can be in the same region. They have been before, I forget when. But I remember picking a UNC/Duke Elite 8 matchup that didn't happen. Maybe 2007?

 

We could just switch Drexel or USF with NC State to account for the NCST/IU rematch problem. No issue.

 

From the NCAA selection rules:

- No more than one team from a conference may be seeded in the same grouping of four in line Nos. 1-4 and 13-16 in a region, unless a conference has four or more teams seeded in line Nos. 1-4. In line Nos. 5-12, two teams from the same conference may be placed in the same group of four.

 

So, it can happen when there are four or more teams in a conference on the 1-4 line. Since UNC and Duke are the only ACC teams on the 1-4 line, they should be separated.

 

The issue with switching NC State into the other first four game is that it's also the same region as UNC/Duke.

[Andy]

UNC and Duke can be in the same region. They have been before, I forget when. But I remember picking a UNC/Duke Elite 8 matchup that didn't happen. Maybe 2007?

 

We could just switch Drexel or USF with NC State to account for the NCST/IU rematch problem. No issue.

 

From the NCAA selection rules:

- No more than one team from a conference may be seeded in the same grouping of four in line Nos. 1-4 and 13-16 in a region, unless a conference has four or more teams seeded in line Nos. 1-4. In line Nos. 5-12, two teams from the same conference may be placed in the same group of four.

 

So, it can happen when there are four or more teams in a conference on the 1-4 line. Since UNC and Duke are the only ACC teams on the 1-4 line, they should be separated.

 

The issue with switching NC State into the other first four game is that it's also the same region as UNC/Duke.

Hmm. Perhaps switch the play-in game into another region? That's all I can think of.

 

How about switching Duke and Ohio State in the bracket to account for the Duke/UNC issue? The two teams are adjacent on the S-Curve.

[bukie]

To fix the Duke-UNC region issue, we can swap Duke and Missouri (Missouri keeps the Omaha pod against the Southland, Duke keeps the Greensboro pod against Lehigh).

 

To fix the rematch problem: switch Indiana to a Nashville pod and Georgetown to a Portland pod, IU plays the Pac-12 winner, Temple plays the NC State-BYU winner, Creighton plays the Drexel-South Florida winner, Louisville plays VCU, Miami gets bumped up to an 11 and plays Florida, and Long Beach gets bumped down to a 12 and plays UNLV.

 

Yeah, it gets complicated.

[bukie]

Lamar wins the Southland.

[SouthSideRyan]

Everybody sent me their lists, so I'll just post mine now:

 

Top 16(+1):

Memphis (C-USA)

Creighton (MVC)

UNLV (MWC)

St Mary's (WCC)

Temple

Louisville

Gonzaga

Florida

Florida State

Kansas State

Vanderbilt

Iowa State

Purdue

Cincinnati

Notre Dame

Murray State (OVC)

St Louis

 

The leftover 20:

New Mexico

California (Pac-12)

Virginia

Alabama

Connecticut

Long Beach State (Big West)

Harvard (Ivy)

San Diego State

Texas

NC State

VCU (CAA)

West Virginia

BYU

Miami

Drexel

Xavier

Southern Miss

South Florida

Colorado State

Washington

 

lol, Without looking, I think I had Memphis and New Mexico last in my lists.

[Vanilla Ice]

I think the Ohio St./Michigan St. winner deserves Kansas' one seed tomorrow.

[bukie]

Sunday games:

 

A-10: Xavier-St. Bonaventure - Bid stolen if Bonnies win

ACC: UNC-Florida State

Big Ten: MSU-OSU

SEC: Vandy-Kentucky

[Andy]

I think the Ohio St./Michigan St. winner deserves Kansas' one seed tomorrow.

That could be an interesting debate. If I've noticed anything in the last few years, though, it's that when a latecoming 1-seed contender appears, the committee tends to stick with what they know. ND v. Duke last year. West Virginia v. Duke the year before.

[Andy]

Speaking of seeding, where does FSU go if they beat UNC tomorrow? Those would be the best consecutive wins anyone had this year, not to mention would give them 2 wins each over UNC and Duke.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think the Ohio St./Michigan St. winner deserves Kansas' one seed tomorrow.

 

Agreed.

[SouthSideRyan]

Speaking of seeding, where does FSU go if they beat UNC tomorrow? Those would be the best consecutive wins anyone had this year, not to mention would give them 2 wins each over UNC and Duke.

 

And their earlier win over UNC was by 33. I'm high on FSU

[SouthSideRyan]

lol, Colorado won the Pac-12

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd bump Belmont and Davidson ahead of Colorado.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think Kansas State is way underseeded. They have the 2 inexplicable losses to Oklahoma, but their other 8 losses are to tourney teams (West Virginia, Baylor x2, Kansas x2, Iowa State x2, and Texas) To go with that they have wins over Bama, Long Beach, Texas, Baylor, and Mizzou x2.

[Guest]

lol, Colorado won the Pac-12

 

Better than Arizona getting in.

 

Meh, Lunardi has Cal still getting in.

[UMFan83]

I think Kansas State is way underseeded. They have the 2 inexplicable losses to Oklahoma, but their other 8 losses are to tourney teams (West Virginia, Baylor x2, Kansas x2, Iowa State x2, and Texas) To go with that they have wins over Bama, Long Beach, Texas, Baylor, and Mizzou x2.

 

I agree. I actually took another look at their resume today, I was impressed. I'd be ok with putting them a little higher on the S-curve

[UMFan83]

I'd bump Belmont and Davidson ahead of Colorado.

 

I don't know, I kind of like Colorado over both of those guys. Colorado has the toughest SOS, more top 50 wins, a ton more top 100 wins (and a .500 record), and no bad losses. The strikes against them are 1) poor road/neutral record, 2)worst RPI of the 3, 3) 7 of their 8 top 100 wins were against the disastrous Pac-12 conference (other against Georgia)

 

Colorado:

 

RPI: 72

SOS: 71

Top 50: 2-3 (both wins Cal)

Top 100: 8-8

RPI 150+ losses: 0

Road/Neutral: 5-7

 

Belmont:

 

RPI: 64

SOS: 234

Top 50: 1-3 (win over Marshall)

Top 100: 2-4

RPI 150+ losses: 2

Road/Neutral: 10-6

 

Davidson:

 

RPI: 65

SOS: 180

Top 50: 1-3 (win "at" Kansas)

Top 100: 2-4

RPI 150+ losses: 2

Road/Neutral: 9-5

[SouthSideRyan]

lol, Colorado won the Pac-12

 

Better than Arizona getting in.

 

Meh, Lunardi has Cal still getting in.

 

So do we, and safely

[SouthSideRyan]

Fair points on Colorado. I gave Davidson a lot of credit for beating Kansas and playing Vandy tight, but they did have ugly losses to Samford, Charleston, and Charlotte (by 23)

 

Colorado is just kind of there. Going 2-1 vs each of Arizona, Cal, and Oregon is the best they have wins-wise, but total package, I guess that's enough.

[bukie]

 

lol, Without looking, I think I had Memphis and New Mexico last in my lists.

 

My thoughts for seeding differ on my thoughts for getting into the tournament. For me, getting into the tournament is about measuring achievement, and seeding in the tournament is about capability. Or, in other words, what you've done gets you in, and what you can do gets you seeded. So, for getting into the tournament, I'm all about the RPI criteria, SOS, records vs. top 25/50/100, bad losses, road/neutral records, etc.

 

For my seeding, though, I go strictly off of predictive measures that take into account victory margin. Specifically, Sagarin predictor, Pomeroy ratings, Massey MOV ratings and TeamRankings predictive ratings. I throw everyone's rating for each formula into a spreadsheet, average them, and boom, there's my ranking, save some subjectivity for teams playing with/without injured players.

[Vanilla Ice]

Speaking of seeding, where does FSU go if they beat UNC tomorrow? Those would be the best consecutive wins anyone had this year, not to mention would give them 2 wins each over UNC and Duke.

 

And their earlier win over UNC was by 33. I'm high on FSU

If they beat UNC tomorrow, could they get Temple's four seed? 4 wins over teams in the top 8 is really impressive.

[Vanilla Ice]

I actually had Colorado higher than Washington, so I think they should stay ahead of Davidson and Belmont.