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2012 International Free Agent Market

CaliforniaRaisin

By CaliforniaRaisin,
in Cubs Minor League Talk

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davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It "could" be worth it sometimes. Just a 75% penalty on overage if its by less than 5%. Between 5-10%, it turns to where you can't sign anyone over 500k the following year and the penalty monetarily. 10-15% turns to the same with a 100% penalty. If you go over by 15%+ it turns to where you can't sign anyone over 250k and the money. Not bad, IF you have a low allotment and expect to be good the following year. But, in our case, we'd have tge 2nd highest allotment and unable to spend it on bigtime players in a year where the class looks to be very solid.
craig First Round Pick

craig

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

If he's 18, he's great, he's interested in signing American, and there's an October date where he'll become unavailable, then:

a. Why didn't he sign back in May or June before the cap began?

b. Why didn't he sign in July back when bidders still had money?

 

Did he just turn 18 and Japanese rules hadn't allowed him to be signable back in June or July? If he was signable back then and he didn't sign when Soler cash was available, or when there were 30 teams with at least a few million to spend, then it's either because a) he didn't want to sign, or b) teams didn't actually think he was worth signing.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Without knowing for sure what the reason is, my guess is a Japanese player has to go undrafted(their draft is in a few weeks) before he is eligible to sign with an MLB team. No clue what kind of money they make over there, but I do know if he goes to the US without playing over there, he has a 3 year sit out period, if he goes back there. My guess is he gets drafted and thats the end of this. That said, I suppose he could get drafted and his team immediately posts him. Which would then put us in the game to get him.
craig First Round Pick

craig

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
...That said, I suppose he could get drafted and his team immediately posts him. Which would then put us in the game to get him.

 

Posting would also be outside of the "international signing" limit, true? All unrealistic, I'm sure.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Brett made a very simple, but excellent point, on the BN board. He'd be a fool to sign right now, if he comes over. Once the IFA year turns over, there's teams with much more than 2.9 mill to spend. And if he's THAT talented, a team may be willing to give him much more than 2.9. Someone over there said the year won't turn over til the beginning of July, but I'm not remembering seeing that anywhere. Could be right. At any rate, if he bypasses Japan and waits......Who knows? Maybe he's a guy we should blow our entire budget on. And hope some other team won't take the penalty and spend even bigger.
Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Brett made a very simple, but excellent point, on the BN board. He'd be a fool to sign right now, if he comes over. Once the IFA year turns over, there's teams with much more than 2.9 mill to spend. And if he's THAT talented, a team may be willing to give him much more than 2.9. Someone over there said the year won't turn over til the beginning of July, but I'm not remembering seeing that anywhere. Could be right. At any rate, if he bypasses Japan and waits......Who knows? Maybe he's a guy we should blow our entire budget on. And hope some other team won't take the penalty and spend even bigger.

The new int'l signing period will end a week before July 2. There will be a week with no int'l signings and then the new period will begin.

 

I doubt this guy will bypass the NPB draft, and if he does, it would be a big deal. He wouldn't just string things on for another 8 months.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Brett made a very simple, but excellent point, on the BN board. He'd be a fool to sign right now, if he comes over. Once the IFA year turns over, there's teams with much more than 2.9 mill to spend. And if he's THAT talented, a team may be willing to give him much more than 2.9. Someone over there said the year won't turn over til the beginning of July, but I'm not remembering seeing that anywhere. Could be right. At any rate, if he bypasses Japan and waits......Who knows? Maybe he's a guy we should blow our entire budget on. And hope some other team won't take the penalty and spend even bigger.

 

I think this is an example of too clever by half. Also, wishful thinking trying to get to the desired result (that this kid has a chance to sign with the Cubs).

 

1) He has to decide if he wants to play in Japan or the USA, and he seems to be legitimately not sure. But he has to decide before the NPL draft, which I believe is later this month.

 

2) Teenagers are never smart to delay signing by a year. His stock and health have nowhere to go but down right now.

 

3) If it were necessary, I think it'd be highly likely that a team would be willing to break their pool for him, especially a team that expects to have a low pool next season (Dodgers? Ranger?).

craig First Round Pick

craig

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

If he wanted to sign U.S., he should have done so last spring or June, when guys like Concepcion and Soler were getting $7 and $30.

 

The fact that he didn't suggests that either he couldn't (some rule), he didn't want to, or mlb teams didn't want him. If he's so great now that teams are going to blow two years of signing budget on him, its unlikely that he wasn't already a known power-arm back in June. Weird things happen I know, so maybe he's gone from 88 to 99 over the last three months. But the simpler explanation is that teams new about him then but he didn't sign.

 

Which would leave either of two explanations: he couldn't (some rule prevented) or he didn't want to.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
If he wanted to sign U.S., he should have done so last spring or June, when guys like Concepcion and Soler were getting $7 and $30.

 

The fact that he didn't suggests that either he couldn't (some rule), he didn't want to, or mlb teams didn't want him. If he's so great now that teams are going to blow two years of signing budget on him, its unlikely that he wasn't already a known power-arm back in June. Weird things happen I know, so maybe he's gone from 88 to 99 over the last three months. But the simpler explanation is that teams new about him then but he didn't sign.

 

Which would leave either of two explanations: he couldn't (some rule prevented) or he didn't want to.

He couldn't sign until he graduated from high school.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted

He couldn't sign until he graduated from high school.

 

Thanks. Which was when in Japan?

Not sure but if it's similar to the US and is in May or June, your point still stands that he could have popped up and signed sooner.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
But even then, doesn't he have to go undrafted before he can sign with an MLB team?

He can sign before the NPB draft, effectively taking himself off their draft boards. Otherwise, he has to rely on NPB teams not drafting him, which seems unlikely.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
So how much can the Cubs give him?

 

$665,000 based on the info we have.

 

I haven't checked to confirm but it sounds like the Rangers haven't signed anyone so they have $3,045,000.

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