Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[davearm2]

To anyone who lives and dies by WAR, which I do not, over the past 4 years Prince Fielder has been on average 2 wins/season more than Carlos Pena. If Epstein and Hoyer view WAR that highly, it is conceivable that they may simply not view that as enough value to justify the contract difference between the 2 players. Obviously, Fielders much older, but if Epstein/Hoyer buy the arguement that Fielder will fall off a cliff in the next 2-5 years do to his physique they might prefer to give Pena, who will be 34 in May a 2-3 year contract. Definitely not what I want, but it's still possible. If nothing else, it would flush out the meatball population who will call for Hoyersteins heads before the season even starts.

 

according to fangraps, fielder has been worth 3.5 more total war in 4 less seasons. he's far younger and he's far better, your logic is [expletive]

Looking at average WARs is a helluva lot more logical than looking at total WAR.

[scarey]

What do people feel would be a realistic contract that Fielder would sign with the Cubs for?

 

If you're Fielder, you want to get as much money as you can out of this. I've not heard of any other huge factors on how he's making a decision other than money. Generally speaking, the longer the contract, the more money he makes.

 

Epstein seems comfortable contracting Fielder for his prime years, but does not want to hamstring the team with what could be a quickly declining, 33/34/35 year old hitter.

 

The way I see it, if the Cubs could manage to offer a large per year salary over 5 years (think $27 million), that could keep them in the running. If they were to offer a mutual option for a 6th year that included a large buyout for the Cubs ($10 million), that could make the Cubs' offer stand out from the crowd.

 

It would essencially be either 5 years $135 mill (Fielder opts out), 5 years $145 mill (Cubs buy out Fielder for 6th year), or 6 years $162 (both sides agree on option year). Those all seem palatable to me, and Fielder would get a chance at another pay day before the end of his career.

Edited December 12, 2011 by scarey

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I have a feeling Fielder is going to drag this out for a long, long time. There's absolutely no hurry. Once Darvish goes, he'll be the only thing left worth spending on in a market where a lot of teams seem to have a lot of money.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'd like to see something like an option that gets guaranteed for year 6 if he finishes in the top 3 in MVP voting in any 2 years during the contract, or wins it in any 1 year. If Prince is your MVP it means 2 things, he had a hell of a year, and the Cubs as a team made the playoffs. If that happens then you have to be even more willing to take on a potentially grossly overpaid season at the back-end of the deal.

[davearm2]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

[Guest]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

 

Both is about the top end of what I'd be willing to do.

[scarey]

I have a feeling Fielder is going to drag this out for a long, long time. There's absolutely no hurry. Once Darvish goes, he'll be the only thing left worth spending on in a market where a lot of teams seem to have a lot of money.

 

Yes and no. Supposedly in January, the Angels will have a better idea of where Morales stands in terms of health. If he gets a clean bill of health and a major player for Fielder, say the Cubs, deals for Morales, that cuts out a bidder.

 

Still, even in that scenario it seems there will still be plenty of bidders to drive the market for him. So, it's pretty safe to say he's best sitting back and waiting for someone to wow him.

[davell]

This is where NL teams are at a distinct disadvantage. An AL team will offer Prince 7 or 8 years, no question in my mind. If he doesn't get 190 mill, probably 200 even, I'll be very surprised.

[PrimeTime]

Latest on Roto

 

According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the Cubs are "definitely in the mix" for free agent Prince Fielder.

 

Fielder's market is expected to begin developing now that the Albert Pujols free agency saga has come to a close. The 27-year-old first baseman has also drawn interest from the Blue Jays and Mariners, and the Rangers are said to be considering making an offer. Fielder owns a stellar .929 career OPS and slugged 38 home runs this past year for Milwaukee. His contract demands are likely in the $200 million range.

[Sammy Sofa]

nothing all that new

 

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

cubs definitely in mix for prince, who at 27 makes more sense than pujols for them. needs: 1B, LH power, cleanup hitter.

 

Why does him being a cleanup hitter "make more sense" for the Cubs than a #3 hitter? The Cubs have neither.

[jersey cubs fan]

This is where NL teams are at a distinct disadvantage. An AL team will offer Prince 7 or 8 years, no question in my mind. If he doesn't get 190 mill, probably 200 even, I'll be very surprised.

 

It's definitely an advantage for an AL team, if that AL team chooses to actually pony up the dough. The Yankees, Red Sox and Angels are the three biggest AL spenders, I believe, and it doesn't appear any of them are involved. It remains to be seen if Seattle, Texas and Toronto are as willing to use the "we can hide him at DH in 2019" clause.

[Magnetic Curses]

To anyone who lives and dies by WAR, which I do not, over the past 4 years Prince Fielder has been on average 2 wins/season more than Carlos Pena. If Epstein and Hoyer view WAR that highly, it is conceivable that they may simply not view that as enough value to justify the contract difference between the 2 players. Obviously, Fielders much older, but if Epstein/Hoyer buy the arguement that Fielder will fall off a cliff in the next 2-5 years do to his physique they might prefer to give Pena, who will be 34 in May a 2-3 year contract. Definitely not what I want, but it's still possible. If nothing else, it would flush out the meatball population who will call for Hoyersteins heads before the season even starts.

 

according to fangraps, fielder has been worth 3.5 more total war in 4 less seasons. he's far younger and he's far better, your logic is [expletive]

Looking at average WARs is a helluva lot more logical than looking at total WAR.

 

i don't see why, as part of the reason for mentioning total war was due to the fact that fielder has 4 less years of service than pena, and has been worth a significant amount more. he's also younger and a permanent solution at first at the age of 27.

 

over the last 3 years, fielder has been worth 5.1 WAR per year, Pena has been worth 2.1. for those that can't count, that's 3 wins per year, a significant amount considering that's two and a half times more.

[Magnetic Curses]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

 

he'll most likely be worth 25 mil per year for 4 of those years. i'd do both in a heartbeat.

[Guest]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

 

he'll most likely be worth 25 mil per year for 4 of those years. i'd do both in a heartbeat.

 

He's been worth less than 15 million in half of his seasons, including 2 of the last 4. I'd probably grit my teeth at 6/150 depending on what else happens, but it would not be "good" deal for the Cubs.

[jersey cubs fan]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

 

he'll most likely be worth 25 mil per year for 4 of those years. i'd do both in a heartbeat.

 

He's been worth less than 15 million in half of his seasons, including 2 of the last 4. I'd probably grit my teeth at 6/150 depending on what else happens, but it would not be "good" deal for the Cubs.

 

He was only 24 in the first one of those years. I'd hardly hold it against him.

[Guest]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

 

he'll most likely be worth 25 mil per year for 4 of those years. i'd do both in a heartbeat.

 

He's been worth less than 15 million in half of his seasons, including 2 of the last 4. I'd probably grit my teeth at 6/150 depending on what else happens, but it would not be "good" deal for the Cubs.

 

He was only 24 in the first one of those years. I'd hardly hold it against him.

 

He's been rather Sotoian in alternating his best years with his worst, which was really what I was getting at. The fact that his WAR was as low as 1.7 in 2008 doesn't worry me as much as the fact that he hasn't exceeded 4 WAR(which falls 5 million short of a 25M AAV) with regularity.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's been rather Sotoian in alternating his best years with his worst, which was really what I was getting at. The fact that his WAR was as low as 1.7 in 2008 doesn't worry me as much as the fact that he hasn't exceeded 4 WAR(which falls 5 million short of a 25M AAV) with regularity.

 

Come on now, his worst season in the last three is equivalent to Soto's best year ever. And Prince is younger. Soto made a big splash in year one, and hasn't been back to that level since. Prince was 2 years younger when he made a bigger splash, and he's exceeded that level twice since.

[Magnetic Curses]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

 

he'll most likely be worth 25 mil per year for 4 of those years. i'd do both in a heartbeat.

 

He's been worth less than 15 million in half of his seasons, including 2 of the last 4. I'd probably grit my teeth at 6/150 depending on what else happens, but it would not be "good" deal for the Cubs.

 

He was only 24 in the first one of those years. I'd hardly hold it against him.

 

He's been rather Sotoian in alternating his best years with his worst, which was really what I was getting at. The fact that his WAR was as low as 1.7 in 2008 doesn't worry me as much as the fact that he hasn't exceeded 4 WAR(which falls 5 million short of a 25M AAV) with regularity.

 

he's been worth 67 million over the last 3 years in terms of real production. if he duplicates that, even with a down year over the next 4, the 2-3 extra million per we needed to get him signed was worth the investment.

[UMFan83]

nothing all that new

 

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

cubs definitely in mix for prince, who at 27 makes more sense than pujols for them. needs: 1B, LH power, cleanup hitter.

 

Why does him being a cleanup hitter "make more sense" for the Cubs than a #3 hitter? The Cubs have neither.

 

I don't know but I'm really glad the Brewers didn't bat him 3rd last year given our strong need for a cleanup guy.

[davearm2]

My guess is Fielder is looking for a minimum of 6 years, and a minimum of $25M a year.

 

I could do one or the other, but certainly not both.

 

he'll most likely be worth 25 mil per year for 4 of those years. i'd do both in a heartbeat.

That scenario is not even close to being "most likely".

 

If you're generous, and assume each year Fielder has a 50% likelihood of being worth $25M, then the probability of him doing it in 4 or more years out of the next 6 is ~34%.

 

If you use Fielder's historical rate of being worth $25M (2 seasons out of 6), then the probability of him doing it in 4 or more years out of the next 6 is ~10%.

[Guest]

If you use Fielder's historical rate of being worth $25M (2 seasons out of 6), then the probability of him doing it in 4 or more years out of the next 6 is ~10%.

C'mon Dave...it's rather disingenuous to use his age 21-22 seasons to do a projection at this point.

 

I'm not a huge fan of signing Fielder at the money he's going to get, but let's be real about the projections.

[Guest]

he's been worth 67 million over the last 3 years in terms of real production. if he duplicates that, even with a down year over the next 4, the 2-3 extra million per we needed to get him signed was worth the investment.

 

I don't follow your math here. If he repeats his next 3 years twice, which you acknowledge is super optimistic, we're looking at overpaying by 25 million or so. Add in the down year like you mention, and any type of decline for the last year or two of his contract, and we're probably looking at overpaying by closer to 50 million. I just don't know if Fielder's star is bright enough for that type of gamble.

[Sammy Sofa]

If you use Fielder's historical rate of being worth $25M (2 seasons out of 6), then the probability of him doing it in 4 or more years out of the next 6 is ~10%.

C'mon Dave...it's rather disingenuous to use his age 21-22 seasons to do a projection at this point.

 

I'm not a huge fan of signing Fielder at the money he's going to get, but let's be real about the projections.

 

THIS CALLS FOR ANOTHER ARTICLE.

[davearm2]

If you use Fielder's historical rate of being worth $25M (2 seasons out of 6), then the probability of him doing it in 4 or more years out of the next 6 is ~10%.

C'mon Dave...it's rather disingenuous to use his age 21-22 seasons to do a projection at this point.

 

I'm not a huge fan of signing Fielder at the money he's going to get, but let's be real about the projections.

I wasn't using his age 21 season.

 

If you toss his age 22 season as well, the result is an ~18% probability.

[Guest]

If you use Fielder's historical rate of being worth $25M (2 seasons out of 6), then the probability of him doing it in 4 or more years out of the next 6 is ~10%.

C'mon Dave...it's rather disingenuous to use his age 21-22 seasons to do a projection at this point.

 

I'm not a huge fan of signing Fielder at the money he's going to get, but let's be real about the projections.

 

THIS CALLS FOR ANOTHER ARTICLE.

Care to write it? If it is well done, I'll post it.