Trading Soriano

[davell]

I don't really care if Stewart is given a chance or not. Part of me wants him to get one. But he can't be handed the job. And zi have serious doubt that he'd get anything more than a minor league/split contract if he hit the open market. I'm not sure a team even gives him a mill guaranteed.

[23sharks]

I listed 10 guys. Soriano evidently wants to play for a contender and has reservations about the West Coast evidently. He'll be 37 next year, so his solid year this season means less, because of the age scare. He won't be easy to deal and get a solid return for, even if we do pay most of the deal.

 

Yes, you did list 10 guys. Of the bunch, Hamilton is elite. Bourn, Upton, and Swisher are very good, but are going to be expensive. You missed Delmon Young, who might belong in this group. From what I hear, Torii Hunter's choices are the Angels or bust. Teams interested in these guys arent likely to be swayed by Soriano's availability. As for the rest, Pagan, Victorino and Ross are all guys that if you're a contender in search for a decent OF bat, they'd be good, reasonably priced options. To a lesser extend, Hairston, though I still see him as more of a 4th OF. Cabrera is in a different class all together. The weak market could still press someone into giving him a 3+ year deal, though nothing close to the 5/60-75 he could have gotten. Then again, he could be looking at a 1 year deal because A. Nobody's willing to give him more or B. a gamble on himself ratherthan taking a longer deal at a lower base salary.

 

Depending on the team, and their needs it's really not out of the question for someone to sign any one of these guys and trade for Soriano. I get [expletive] on for bringing up guys like Michael Taylor and Wade Davis, but these seem to be the types of reclamations that Epstein covets. Domonic Brown and Brian Matusz might not be too far from that catagory. If we could get a guy like that, plus 1-2 lottery tickets, it might be in our best interests to take it and run. Soriano isn't getting any younger, and it could be our last chance to get anything for him. Then again, if they decide that they want to win next year, I'm all for keeping him. IMHO if we keep Garza, and sign another SP as well as Upton, Young, or Swisher, we could very much contend. I also see Ian Stewart as a big X-factor.

 

 

Do you really think the Cubs can contend if they sign just 1 starting pitcher and 1 of the hitters you mentioned?? I think they are more like 5 or 6 good players away from contending. I've seen enough of Ian Stewart to know that I don't need to see any more of him.....

 

I really want to see 1 more year of Ian Stewart assuming that his wrist heals. The rotation of Garza, Shark, 1 of the FAs, Wood, Volstad/filler/reclamation/Vizcaino in a perfect but unrealistc world may not be 90s Braves, but it's as good as any in the division. As for the lineup, basically, it would be full of X Factors from top to bottom. 1. DeJesus or Jackson, 2. Castro 3. Rizzo 4. Soriano 5. Upton/Young/Cabrera 6. Castillo 7. Vitters or Stewart 8. Barney could be very good, very bad, or anywhere in between. We could certainly use a better 4 hitter, but I think they'd have a shot, though full of X Factors. And to be honest, if all we'd get for Soriano and Marmol, even with eating the bulk of their salaries is a handful of fringe prospects and big league filler, I'd much rather go with that lineup. If we're contending in July, you never know what will become available via trade.

 

I wish I could be as optimistic as you, but I just don't see them being a whole lot better than this year.

I'm concerned about the Garza injury, who knows how bad it really is. They may have lost their chance of getting a good return for him, but I was fine with extending him too, before the injury happened.

I'm fine with letting Vitters and Stewart compete for the 3rd base job. Maybe we end up with a decent platoon.

As for the X-Factors you mentioned, how many times does that work out? Not very many. Especially when you are counting on 3 or 4 of those situations to pan out.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I listed 10 guys. Soriano evidently wants to play for a contender and has reservations about the West Coast evidently. He'll be 37 next year, so his solid year this season means less, because of the age scare. He won't be easy to deal and get a solid return for, even if we do pay most of the deal.

 

Yes, you did list 10 guys. Of the bunch, Hamilton is elite. Bourn, Upton, and Swisher are very good, but are going to be expensive. You missed Delmon Young, who might belong in this group. From what I hear, Torii Hunter's choices are the Angels or bust. Teams interested in these guys arent likely to be swayed by Soriano's availability. As for the rest, Pagan, Victorino and Ross are all guys that if you're a contender in search for a decent OF bat, they'd be good, reasonably priced options. To a lesser extend, Hairston, though I still see him as more of a 4th OF. Cabrera is in a different class all together. The weak market could still press someone into giving him a 3+ year deal, though nothing close to the 5/60-75 he could have gotten. Then again, he could be looking at a 1 year deal because A. Nobody's willing to give him more or B. a gamble on himself ratherthan taking a longer deal at a lower base salary.

 

Depending on the team, and their needs it's really not out of the question for someone to sign any one of these guys and trade for Soriano. I get [expletive] on for bringing up guys like Michael Taylor and Wade Davis, but these seem to be the types of reclamations that Epstein covets. Domonic Brown and Brian Matusz might not be too far from that catagory. If we could get a guy like that, plus 1-2 lottery tickets, it might be in our best interests to take it and run. Soriano isn't getting any younger, and it could be our last chance to get anything for him. Then again, if they decide that they want to win next year, I'm all for keeping him. IMHO if we keep Garza, and sign another SP as well as Upton, Young, or Swisher, we could very much contend. I also see Ian Stewart as a big X-factor.

 

 

Do you really think the Cubs can contend if they sign just 1 starting pitcher and 1 of the hitters you mentioned?? I think they are more like 5 or 6 good players away from contending. I've seen enough of Ian Stewart to know that I don't need to see any more of him.....

 

I really want to see 1 more year of Ian Stewart assuming that his wrist heals. The rotation of Garza, Shark, 1 of the FAs, Wood, Volstad/filler/reclamation/Vizcaino in a perfect but unrealistc world may not be 90s Braves, but it's as good as any in the division. As for the lineup, basically, it would be full of X Factors from top to bottom. 1. DeJesus or Jackson, 2. Castro 3. Rizzo 4. Soriano 5. Upton/Young/Cabrera 6. Castillo 7. Vitters or Stewart 8. Barney could be very good, very bad, or anywhere in between. We could certainly use a better 4 hitter, but I think they'd have a shot, though full of X Factors. And to be honest, if all we'd get for Soriano and Marmol, even with eating the bulk of their salaries is a handful of fringe prospects and big league filler, I'd much rather go with that lineup. If we're contending in July, you never know what will become available via trade.

 

I wish I could be as optimistic as you, but I just don't see them being a whole lot better than this year.

I'm concerned about the Garza injury, who knows how bad it really is. They may have lost their chance of getting a good return for him, but I was fine with extending him too, before the injury happened.

I'm fine with letting Vitters and Stewart compete for the 3rd base job. Maybe we end up with a decent platoon.

As for the X-Factors you mentioned, how many times does that work out? Not very many. Especially when you are counting on 3 or 4 of those situations to pan out.

 

I think there's a chance. Going forward, we have 3 probable impact players, Castro, Rizzo, and Shark. Garza to if we keep him. Other than that, we're at the mercy of those x factors. Even if we were to sign Upton , one of Jackson/Marcum/Sanchez at, and maybe another pitcher, and things didn't work out, we wouldn't be jeopardizing the future unless we ended up grossly overpaying for one of them, which they wouldn't do anyway. The fact is, they have the money, and there's no reason not to spend at least some of it on the right players while they wait and see what we really have in those lower level prospects.

[dew1679666265]

As for the qualifier, right now, these are the guys I expect to receive it: Hamilton and Greinke are no-brainers obviously. I think Upton is close to one as well at this point. I think Bourn will get one pretty easily and I expect the Yankees to put one on Swisher, who could possibly be stuck, if they dod. A one year commitment to him probably suits the Yanks OK, but I'm not completely sure a team gives up their 1st for him. My guess is yes, but it may take a team who's already lost their 1st to go ahead and just totally punt the draft and sign him as well. Ortiz is a wild card, but if Boston gives him one, he's staying put for sure. Pitching-wise, it's a bit dicier after Greinke. I could see the nats giving one to Edwin, again, a one year commitment probably suits them well and he'd likely be stuck there. I can see Texas giving Dempster one possibly, again, it'd keep him there. Just not sure they on't go in a different direction. Detroit could put one on Sanchez too. Another guy teams may be hesitant to give up their 1st for.

 

I thought guys who were traded (Demp and Anibal in your post) couldn't be qualified.

[davell]

Yeah, they can't be. I messed up on them. That said, I doubt Dempster comes back, because he knows we'll just trade him again and Sanchez could get a really hefty deal from a mid/small market borderline contender that probably keeps him from being a real option for us, since it seems we'll be looking for shortterm deals again. I'm rwally starting to think we get Villanueva, as an upside type. And a Marcum type vet, along with a trade for a young, upside type guy. Won't be sexy, but fits with what the plan appears to be.

[biittner77]

Yeah, they can't be. I messed up on them. That said, I doubt Dempster comes back, because he knows we'll just trade him again and Sanchez could get a really hefty deal from a mid/small market borderline contender that probably keeps him from being a real option for us, since it seems we'll be looking for shortterm deals again. I'm rwally starting to think we get Villanueva, as an upside type. And a Marcum type vet, along with a trade for a young, upside type guy. Won't be sexy, but fits with what the plan appears to be.

 

Why would the Cubs be looking for short term deals for SP? The Cubs don't much starting pitching anywhere in the minors. SP will probably be a need every year for at least 5 years.

[davell]

Because they likely don't want to tie themselves in to average pitchers on longterm deals. Outside of Greinke, there's nothing better than midrotation guys out there in FA. Theo already mentioned the possibility of dealing away 40% of a good rotation at next years deadline. That seems like Garza and an addition to me. We've got Shark and possibly Wood here for a while. Maybe Vizcaino can be a guy, maybe we get one thru trade over the offseason. Maybe get one by trading Garza or someone else at the deadline. But locking into a 3-5 year deal with an Edwin Jackson or Annibal Sanchez doesn't make a lot of sense when you can goget Liriano, Marcum or McCarthy for a shorter term, same with a Villanueva possibly.

[Little Slide Rooter]

But what we need is a good middle of the rotation starter. The fact is that front end guys rarely become available anymore, so guys like Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez are going to be more in demand and thus, more expensive. I'm not saying that we should go nuts, but guys like that are likely to get at least 4/48 type deals, and I don't think that McCarthy or Marcum would be much cheaper. The alternative could be Jake Peavy at a shorter term, higher base salary contract.

[davell]

Those types are available every year. There's no reason to add one on a longterm deal until we're competing. Adding the shortterm deal guys allows you to deal them at least. And I seriously doubt guys like Marcum, McCarthy, Liriano get more than a or two, at the max.

[SouthSideRyan]

Those types are available every year. There's no reason to add one on a longterm deal until we're competing. Adding the shortterm deal guys allows you to deal them at least. And I seriously doubt guys like Marcum, McCarthy, Liriano get more than a or two, at the max.

 

I'd be stunned if Marcum and McCarthy get less than a combined 7 years.

 

ETA: But it's ok, because then everyone can rant about what terrible deals they are. Those deals, and every other free agent deal for more than 5M in the past 4 years.

[davell]

Really? I just don't see them getting longterm deals at all. Not after the injury issues they've had. I'm not opposed to longterm deals, by the way, just don't think they're necessary for us yet. Next offseason? Maybe, probably actually. But either way, I don't see those guys getting them right now.

[Guest]

I could see McCarthy only getting a short term deal given his current health status.

[WrigleyField 22]

Those types are available every year. There's no reason to add one on a longterm deal until we're competing. Adding the shortterm deal guys allows you to deal them at least. And I seriously doubt guys like Marcum, McCarthy, Liriano get more than a or two, at the max.

We'll never be in position to compete with that outlook. We need to add talent as it comes available at a worthwhile price.

 

 

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[SouthSideRyan]

Stunned was probably the wrong word because I started out saying I'd be stunned if either got 1 year deals, then changed it to my estimation on the number of actual years. I figure McCarthy gets 3, Marcum gets 4-5. If McCarthy and Marcum really only get 2 year deals and we're not in on both of them, then I'm gonna be pretty [expletive] pissed.

[sneakypower]

Those types are available every year. There's no reason to add one on a longterm deal until we're competing. Adding the shortterm deal guys allows you to deal them at least. And I seriously doubt guys like Marcum, McCarthy, Liriano get more than a or two, at the max.

 

I'd be stunned if Marcum and McCarthy get less than a combined 7 years.

 

ETA: But it's ok, because then everyone can rant about what terrible deals they are. Those deals, and every other free agent deal for more than 5M in the past 4 years.

i'll definitely take the under on 7

[davell]

Stunned was probably the wrong word because I started out saying I'd be stunned if either got 1 year deals, then changed it to my estimation on the number of actual years. I figure McCarthy gets 3, Marcum gets 4-5. If McCarthy and Marcum really only get 2 year deals and we're not in on both of them, then I'm gonna be pretty [expletive] pissed.

 

If we CAN get either or both for 2 years or less, I'll be pissed as well, if we at least don't wind up with one of them.

Edited September 18, 2012 by davell

[Guest]

yea, i doubt marcum and mccarthy are getting 7 years combined

[SABR Gamer]

I thought this was the Trading Soriano thread? (not that the conversation isn't interesting, just seems off topic)

[biittner77]

I thought this was the Trading Soriano thread? (not that the conversation isn't interesting, just seems off topic)

 

On that note, has Soriano played his way into having actual value? At the beginning of the season, teams were willing to take him for free. Moving forward, is an offseason trade at all likely?

[davell]

There's a solid amount of decent to better OFers available in FA this year. Yes, Soriano has had a much better season than most of them, but the question is will teams think he can do it again, at 37? Because the other guys just cost money, Soriano will cost prospects. Granted, a cash strapped team may want Soriano, if he winds up the cheapest out of the group monetarily, if we eat enough cash. Which I believe we'd do. I really expect him to wind up a Yankee and us paying 30 mill, in order to get a fairly decent return. Baltimore, Tampa, and Detroit are 3 other teams I could see him going to as well.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I thought this was the Trading Soriano thread? (not that the conversation isn't interesting, just seems off topic)

 

On that note, has Soriano played his way into having actual value? At the beginning of the season, teams were willing to take him for free. Moving forward, is an offseason trade at all likely?

 

We've heard reports since the spring that the Cubs are willing to eat anywhere from 75-95% of his remaining salary. What we don't know is what type of player return we're asking for if we eat said salary. If we do pick up 90-95% and ask for a reasonable return, I can't imagine someone not showing interest, especially with the weak FA class. I suppose it depends on what our guys feel is a reasonable return vs. what other teams do. There's also the matter of his NTC.

[Sammy Sofa]

I suppose it depends on what our guys feel is a reasonable return vs. what other teams do.

 

Oh, you mean like every trade ever? Thanks for clarifying.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I suppose it depends on what our guys feel is a reasonable return vs. what other teams do.

 

Oh, you mean like every trade ever? Thanks for clarifying.

 

But every trade ever hasn't involved eating somewhere between 25-35MM worth of salary and a player who will be 37 years old next season. So yeah, it's likely that our side will be asking for a significant player return to make it worthwhile and the other side to be cautious about what they give up regardless of how much money is being absorbed.

[davell]

If Soriano had signed a 6 year deal and became a FA this offseason, what kind of contract would he get, assuming he's not qualified? 2 years, 20 mill, is my guess.

[Sammy Sofa]

I suppose it depends on what our guys feel is a reasonable return vs. what other teams do.

 

Oh, you mean like every trade ever? Thanks for clarifying.

 

But every trade ever hasn't involved eating somewhere between 25-35MM worth of salary and a player who will be 37 years old next season. So yeah, it's likely that our side will be asking for a significant player return to make it worthwhile and the other side to be cautious about what they give up regardless of how much money is being absorbed.

 

You're doing this on purpose, aren't you?