College Football - Championship Week

[chuckywang]

After much time researching and thinking about it, here are my predicted BCS matchups:

National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama

Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. TCU

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia

 

These aren't my preferred matchups, just how I think it will end up shaking out. Thoughts?

[Flames24Rulz]

I think Oklahoma State's going to jump Alabama. Had that hunch about Florida jumping Michigan in 2006 and I feel like it'll happen tomorrow too.

 

The rest looks right, but does it really matter unless you're a fan of one of those teams? I'm turned off by this practice of having exhibition games finishing the season, with the exception of the title game. End it now, please.

[Guest]

And I think OSU should jump Alabama.

 

I want to agree with you but I think OSU is going to fall short.

[chuckywang]

I think Oklahoma State's going to jump Alabama. Had that hunch about Florida jumping Michigan in 2006 and I feel like it'll happen tomorrow too.

 

The rest looks right, but does it really matter unless you're a fan of one of those teams? I'm turned off by this practice of having exhibition games finishing the season, with the exception of the title game. End it now, please.

 

Yeah, I went back and forth between Oklahoma State and Alabama, but I don't see how voters can honestly say that Oklahoma State deserves a shot over Alabama. They were no. 5 in both polls this week, and I can't seem them jumping to no. 2 over Alabama in both polls. Plus, Alabama has them beat in the computers (currently). The only reason voters will put Oklahoma State at no. 2 is if they don't want to see a rematch, and not because they truly think they are the no. 2 team in the country.

[CubColtPacer]

Here are Palm's latest BCS projections:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs

 

Some thoughts on the title game matchup:

 

In 2006, when voters changed their mind and elevated Florida over Michigan, the Gators deficit was quite a bit less than the number of voters in each poll. Oklahoma St started this week a whopping 342 points behind Alabama in the Harris poll and 166 back in the coaches' poll, which is nearly three times the nuimber of voters in each poll. The Hokies' loss will help some, but it will take a significant voter epiphany to put Oklahoma State close enough to Alabama to overtake them.

 

And for the at-large spots:

 

It looks like Michigan got the help it needed to qualify for the at-large pool. I don't think it looks good for TCU though. The voters will really have to come to the Frogs' rescue, and that doesn't seem likely.

 

So, with that in mind, I now have Kansas State in the BCS instead of TCU. However, I also have Baylor projected at the very bottom of the at-large pool. If Baylor actually does qualify, the presence of Robert Griffin III could cause the Bears to bet a BCS nod over Kansas St.

 

Here are the rest of his thoughts: http://rpibcsguy.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26191645/33662236

[Guest]

I think Oklahoma State's going to jump Alabama. Had that hunch about Florida jumping Michigan in 2006 and I feel like it'll happen tomorrow too.

 

The rest looks right, but does it really matter unless you're a fan of one of those teams? I'm turned off by this practice of having exhibition games finishing the season, with the exception of the title game. End it now, please.

 

Yeah, I went back and forth between Oklahoma State and Alabama, but I don't see how voters can honestly say that Oklahoma State deserves a shot over Alabama. They were no. 5 in both polls this week, and I can't seem them jumping to no. 2 over Alabama in both polls. Plus, Alabama has them beat in the computers (currently). The only reason voters will put Oklahoma State at no. 2 is if they don't want to see a rematch, and not because they truly think they are the no. 2 team in the country.

 

OSU had Bama beat in the computers after losing to Iowa St and before Bama beat Auburn. I think ripping OU is better than beating Auburn so I think OSU jumps Bama pretty convincingly in the computers.

 

They don't have to worry about VT or Houston either, which helps. It's going to be close either way though.

[Guest]

ESPN pushing hard for a rematch. Chris Fowler basically said it is a certainty and will happen. Musberger also said it's likely to happen and said LSU and Bama are the two best teams. He and. Herbstreit talking like a rematch is inevitable.

[CubColtPacer]

Sagarin is updated. LSU 1, Alabama 2, Oklahoma State 3. Houston dropped from 8th to 26th. TCU is 19th (same as last week) and Michigan dropped one spot from last week to 23rd (but Sagarin is by far Michigan's worst computer rating so it will be dropped anyway). Georgia moved up 3 spots to #11 and Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Baylor are 5, 6, and 7.

[BleacherBadger]

heart.....head....hurt......

 

See above. It was textbook running into the kicker. Having said that, this was a replay of the game earlier in the year. Badgers own first and last 5 min, MSU everything inbetween.

 

This time, the ball bounced to Duckworth, instead of Nichol.

[NewUserName]

heart.....head....hurt......

 

See above. It was textbook running into the kicker. Having said that, this was a replay of the game earlier in the year. Badgers own first and last 5 min, MSU everything inbetween.

 

This time, the ball bounced to Duckworth, instead of Nichol.

 

yes it was. I do not like when officials swallow the whistle because it is late, so I am going to stay consistent with that now. That being said I have always thought that football should have a penalty against flopping. I was shocked that Wisconsin went for it on the Duckworth play. Reflecting back, I think Wilson being able to keep plays alive with his mobility is the main reason Wisconsin won. Well that and several mental errors by MSU.

[Outshined_One]

I would like to take the opportunity to thank the Colorado Rockies for drafting Russell Wilson and signing him, which ultimately led NC State to releasing Wilson. Far and away, he's the best QB I've ever seen on the Badgers. If he were four or five inches taller, I'd have to think he would be getting serious first round consideration in the NFL Draft.

 

Oregon is going to be a hell of an opponent in the Rose Bowl. I don't have a great feeling about the game, but at least Ball and Wilson should give the Badgers a chance if the game turns into a shootout.

[Tracer Bullet]

Not surprising, but Crist is leaving ND after he graduates later this month. Kelly granted him permission to talk to other teams. There's speculation about a few teams, including Wisconsin. Be funny if the same team benefits from the 5th year transfer rule two years running.

[NewUserName]

Not surprising, but Crist is leaving ND after he graduates later this month. Kelly granted him permission to talk to other teams. There's speculation about a few teams, including Wisconsin. Be funny if the same team benefits from the 5th year transfer rule two years running.

 

I know Wisconsin has QB issues beyond Wilson, but I think Crist would just add numbers to those issues, not solve any.

[Tracer Bullet]

Not surprising, but Crist is leaving ND after he graduates later this month. Kelly granted him permission to talk to other teams. There's speculation about a few teams, including Wisconsin. Be funny if the same team benefits from the 5th year transfer rule two years running.

 

I know Wisconsin has QB issues beyond Wilson, but I think Crist would just add numbers to those issues, not solve any.

 

Hard to say. If he was back in a pro offense, he'd look much better than he did this year. He was never comfortable in the spread. Still has a cannon arm and the whole team loves him, so leadership issues aren't a question either.

[BleacherBadger]

Not surprising, but Crist is leaving ND after he graduates later this month. Kelly granted him permission to talk to other teams. There's speculation about a few teams, including Wisconsin. Be funny if the same team benefits from the 5th year transfer rule two years running.

 

I know Wisconsin has QB issues beyond Wilson, but I think Crist would just add numbers to those issues, not solve any.

 

None of our current QBs should play, but we have Bart Houston (#4 QB) coming in as a true freshman. I don't like playing true freshman, so I'd be good having a 2nd Dayne and a 2nd Chryst for a year and getting a year for Houston to ground his feet.

 

BB has said he's already received 10 transfer applications, a notable uptick due to RW.

[Outshined_One]

Not surprising, but Crist is leaving ND after he graduates later this month. Kelly granted him permission to talk to other teams. There's speculation about a few teams, including Wisconsin. Be funny if the same team benefits from the 5th year transfer rule two years running.

 

I know Wisconsin has QB issues beyond Wilson, but I think Crist would just add numbers to those issues, not solve any.

 

Quantity would be welcome at this point. Wisconsin has done a miserable job of recruiting and developing QBs, and their current crop is not pretty after Wilson. Crist would fall into their recent pattern, especially considering Tolzien and Wilson started somewhere else.

 

Crist may not be very good, but he's probably better than anyone else the Badgers have right now.

[BleacherBadger]

heart.....head....hurt......

 

See above. It was textbook running into the kicker. Having said that, this was a replay of the game earlier in the year. Badgers own first and last 5 min, MSU everything inbetween.

 

This time, the ball bounced to Duckworth, instead of Nichol.

 

yes it was. I do not like when officials swallow the whistle because it is late, so I am going to stay consistent with that now. That being said I have always thought that football should have a penalty against flopping. I was shocked that Wisconsin went for it on the Duckworth play. Reflecting back, I think Wilson being able to keep plays alive with his mobility is the main reason Wisconsin won. Well that and several mental errors by MSU.

 

It was fitting the refs played a role in how this game finished up, seeing as how the previous game ended by overturning the call on the field.

[treebird]

what is the argument for alabama over okst besides "alabama is ALABAMA" and "okst it just okst?" i really can't believe we'd see a rematch if the names were reversed.

[ctcf]

LOL at the BCS. Alabama in the title game? Seriously?

 

I think my favorite stat from the last day is that OKS has beaten two Top 10 teams while Alabama hasn't beaten any. What a [expletive] joke.

[CubColtPacer]

what is the argument for alabama over okst besides "alabama is ALABAMA" and "okst it just okst?" i really can't believe we'd see a rematch if the names were reversed.

 

Alabama's loss is much better than Oklahoma State's. And their best win (Arkansas) might be better than Oklahoma State's best win (Kansas State). Their second best win might be comparable by some (at Penn State vs home against Baylor). Alabama was also never challenged in any of their games (their closest game except LSU was a 16 point win over Penn State) while Oklahoma State had a 1 point win over Texas A&M and a 7 point win over Kansas State. Oklahoma State's strength is that the depth of their schedule is much stronger than Alabama's.

 

Alabama has a legitimate argument for #2. I tend to like the team with the stronger strength of schedule overall which is why I lean to Oklahoma State, but Alabama has been pretty dominant all season long.

[bukie]

Alabama still #2 in the coaches poll by 37 points. Due to computer ratings, that means OSU needs to be 5 points better than Alabama in the Harris poll to finish second.

[chuckywang]

LOL at the BCS. Alabama in the title game? Seriously?

 

I think my favorite stat from the last day is that OKS has beaten two Top 10 teams while Alabama hasn't beaten any. What a [expletive] joke.

 

I hate how they determine those stats. Arkansas is no. 3 now but since they were was no. 14 when Alabama beat them, it doesn't count as a top 10 win?

[chuckywang]

Alabama still #2 in the coaches poll by 37 points. Due to computer ratings, that means OSU needs to be 5 points better than Alabama in the Harris poll to finish second.

 

Wait, have the updated computer ratings been released?

[CubColtPacer]

Alabama still #2 in the coaches poll by 37 points. Due to computer ratings, that means OSU needs to be 5 points better than Alabama in the Harris poll to finish second.

 

Of course, that's just the projected computer rankings (although it's usually easier to reverse engineer those than to try to figure out the voters). I think the only computer ranking we know for sure is Sagarin.

 

So it looks like it will be close but probably not close enough. 42 of the 59 coaches had Alabama 2nd. And it looks like 7 coaches had Oklahoma State 4th.

 

Last week 111 of the 115 Harris voters had Alabama 2nd. So Oklahoma State would have to flip around 60-65 voters because some voters will leave Oklahoma State 4th just like what happened in the coaches poll. That's a tall order.

[bukie]

Alabama still #2 in the coaches poll by 37 points. Due to computer ratings, that means OSU needs to be 5 points better than Alabama in the Harris poll to finish second.

 

Wait, have the updated computer ratings been released?

OSU is 2nd in 4 of 6 computer ratings. They had been prior to this week, though, it's just the human voting that has screwed things up.

 

So yes, 20 years after everyone decided that depending on human voters was a stupid way to determine #1, they've made it so that human voters have 2/3 of the influence to determine #2. And not just educated voters. A public poll has 33% of the influence.