College Football - Week 13 (Thanksgiving Week)

[Guest]

Sagarin has Michigan's SOS ranked 38th and MSU's 55th through this week's games.

[NewUserName]

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Why are you ignoring the fact that Michigan isn't any good? Michigan is going to get housed if they get to a BCS game.

 

Outside of LSU/Alabama and OSU I think Michigan would compete with just about any other team in the country.

[CubColtPacer]

MSU is more questionable to you than UM? That makes no sense at all. MSU beat the 2 other best teams in the conference this year (Wisconsin & UM). Come on.

 

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Whose SOS rankings are you using and when were they updated? MSU played and beat the 2 other best teams in the Big Ten (and will play the 2nd best team in the conference twice). UM played the best team in the Big Ten and lost. UM got to play Purdue and Illinois - a classic Big Ten team that wins 6 games against cupcakes - ASU turned out to be as good as Illinois turned out to be - and then shows their true colors when they play teams that don't totally suck (UM should recognize this scenario from last year - right down to firing their coach at the end). MSU got Indiana and Wisconsin. They both played ND and 3 body bags OOC.

 

They both played at Iowa, UM got beat, MSU soundly beat the Hawkeyes. UM had to go to MSU, but the next 3 hardest games (OSU, Nebraska, and ND) were all at home. MSU had to play at OSU and at Nebraska (and at ND). The schedules are so close as to be negligible, but I'd say MSU had the harder schedule.

 

So UM has a fluke win against ND and barely beat OSU, plus a loss to a bad Iowa team. MSU got beaten by ND when Rees stopped turning the ball over and got beat by a ranked Nebraska team. The point differential in their losses is meaningless. UM isn't going to get blown out b/c they can score. They just can't play defense against good teams. MSU is willing to play a close defensive game b/c they run the ball well and play better defense.

 

There is no way that MSU playing a 13th game against the 2nd best team in the conference and losing would put UM (sitting at home) ahead of them.

 

Sagarin

Michigan Schedule-38th ranked

Michigan State-55th

 

Colley

Michigan Schedule-30th

Michigan State-73rd

 

Massey games played

Michigan-37

Michigan State-58

 

Massey games full (takes into account MSU's game against Wisconsin coming up)

Michigan-38

Michigan State-47

 

Anderson/Hester

Michigan-25

Michigan State-59

 

It will get closer when MSU plays Wisconsin, but right now the computers are in agreement that Michigan's schedule was harder than MSU's. I couldn't find a SOS on Wolfe's ratings.

[CubColtPacer]

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Why are you ignoring the fact that Michigan isn't any good? Michigan is going to get housed if they get to a BCS game.

 

How does Michigan's resume being better than MSU's have much to do with how they would play in a BCS game? And Michigan would likely play Houston or Stanford in the BCS and they have a pretty good shot at either of those two teams (especially Houston). Personally, I would enjoy just taking the top 10 in the BCS and be done with it (which would end up excluding both of them unless MSU wins this week), but I know the bowls would never go for it.

[jersey cubs fan]

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Why are you ignoring the fact that Michigan isn't any good? Michigan is going to get housed if they get to a BCS game.

 

Outside of LSU/Alabama and OSU I think Michigan would compete with just about any other team in the country.

 

Stanford, USC and Oregon would slaughter them, although obviously USC won't get the chance. I think Arkansas and Georgia would handle them. What is their most impressive win, against an overrated Nebraska team?

[Old Style]

lol a&m

 

The SEC should be interesting for them.

We have the talent to be decent in the SEC. Unfortunately our head coach has a knack for turning Top 10 talent into a .500 team.

[Guest]

Stanford, USC and Oregon would slaughter them, although obviously USC won't get the chance. I think Arkansas and Georgia would handle them. What is their most impressive win, against an overrated Nebraska team?

 

What's Stanford, Arkansas, or Georgia's most impressive win? You can go in these circles with every team.

[NewUserName]

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Why are you ignoring the fact that Michigan isn't any good? Michigan is going to get housed if they get to a BCS game.

 

Outside of LSU/Alabama and OSU I think Michigan would compete with just about any other team in the country.

 

Stanford, USC and Oregon would slaughter them, although obviously USC won't get the chance. I think Arkansas and Georgia would handle them. What is their most impressive win, against an overrated Nebraska team?

 

I am just going to disagree. What are Oregon, USC and Stanford's most impressive wins? Take away that trio and the impressive wins are slim. Obviously LSU and Alabama are elite teams, take away them and the SEC is rather unimpressive. Georgia didn't play either one and Arkansas got "housed" by both of them. I am not saying Michigan beats any of these teams but I bet they would be competitive.

[jersey cubs fan]

Stanford, USC and Oregon would slaughter them, although obviously USC won't get the chance. I think Arkansas and Georgia would handle them. What is their most impressive win, against an overrated Nebraska team?

 

What's Stanford, Arkansas, or Georgia's most impressive win? You can go in these circles with every team.

 

But Michigan isn't good.

[Guest]

Stanford, USC and Oregon would slaughter them, although obviously USC won't get the chance. I think Arkansas and Georgia would handle them. What is their most impressive win, against an overrated Nebraska team?

 

What's Stanford, Arkansas, or Georgia's most impressive win? You can go in these circles with every team.

 

But Michigan isn't good.

 

Neither are Arkansas and Georgia.

[jersey cubs fan]

I am just going to disagree. What are Oregon, USC and Stanford's most impressive wins? Take away that trio and the impressive wins are slim. Obviously LSU and Alabama are elite teams, take away them and the SEC is rather unimpressive. Georgia didn't play either one and Arkansas got "housed" by both of them. I am not saying Michigan beats any of these teams but I bet they would be competitive.

 

Michigan would barely be bowl eligible if they played in the SEC this year. It's a sign of just how horrible the Big Ten was this year that Michigan is even in the discussion for a BCS bowl.

[Tracer Bullet]

MSU is more questionable to you than UM? That makes no sense at all. MSU beat the 2 other best teams in the conference this year (Wisconsin & UM). Come on.

 

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Whose SOS rankings are you using and when were they updated? MSU played and beat the 2 other best teams in the Big Ten (and will play the 2nd best team in the conference twice). UM played the best team in the Big Ten and lost. UM got to play Purdue and Illinois - a classic Big Ten team that wins 6 games against cupcakes - ASU turned out to be as good as Illinois turned out to be - and then shows their true colors when they play teams that don't totally suck (UM should recognize this scenario from last year - right down to firing their coach at the end). MSU got Indiana and Wisconsin. They both played ND and 3 body bags OOC.

 

They both played at Iowa, UM got beat, MSU soundly beat the Hawkeyes. UM had to go to MSU, but the next 3 hardest games (OSU, Nebraska, and ND) were all at home. MSU had to play at OSU and at Nebraska (and at ND). The schedules are so close as to be negligible, but I'd say MSU had the harder schedule.

 

So UM has a fluke win against ND and barely beat OSU, plus a loss to a bad Iowa team. MSU got beaten by ND when Rees stopped turning the ball over and got beat by a ranked Nebraska team. The point differential in their losses is meaningless. UM isn't going to get blown out b/c they can score. They just can't play defense against good teams. MSU is willing to play a close defensive game b/c they run the ball well and play better defense.

 

There is no way that MSU playing a 13th game against the 2nd best team in the conference and losing would put UM (sitting at home) ahead of them.

 

Sagarin

Michigan Schedule-38th ranked

Michigan State-55th

 

Colley

Michigan Schedule-30th

Michigan State-73rd

 

Massey games played

Michigan-37

Michigan State-58

 

Massey games full (takes into account MSU's game against Wisconsin coming up)

Michigan-38

Michigan State-47

 

Anderson/Hester

Michigan-25

Michigan State-59

 

It will get closer when MSU plays Wisconsin, but right now the computers are in agreement that Michigan's schedule was harder than MSU's. I couldn't find a SOS on Wolfe's ratings.

 

I'd love to see those explained. Were UM's 3 cupcakes OOC that much better than MSU's?

 

The only meaningful differences in their schedules were Indiana/Wisconsin and Purdue/Illinois and that MSU had to play more difficult road games. What a crock.

[Tracer Bullet]

CCP, TT (since you both disagree with me), what is your independent analysis of their schedules. You're intelligent fans. Do you believe UM's schedule was harder, let alone 43 spots harder, like one site has them ranked?

[Tracer Bullet]

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Why are you ignoring the fact that Michigan isn't any good? Michigan is going to get housed if they get to a BCS game.

 

Outside of LSU/Alabama and OSU I think Michigan would compete with just about any other team in the country.

 

Oregon would destroy them. Stanford would likely also. I'd actually like to see Wisconsin play them.

 

I generally think there is more balance in cfb this year - outside of LSU and Bama. There are a lot of flawed teams.

[Guest]

CCP, TT (since you both disagree with me), what is your independent analysis of their schedules. You're intelligent fans. Do you believe UM's schedule was harder, let alone 43 spots harder, like one site has them ranked?

 

I was just passing along that info, because it didn't make sense at a cursory glance. I thought maybe their game against each other was a factor, but they're right next to each other in Sagarin. It must be the OOC games plus the home/road balance of their common games.

[Tracer Bullet]

CCP, TT (since you both disagree with me), what is your independent analysis of their schedules. You're intelligent fans. Do you believe UM's schedule was harder, let alone 43 spots harder, like one site has them ranked?

 

I was just passing along that info, because it didn't make sense at a cursory glance. I thought maybe their game against each other was a factor, but they're right next to each other in Sagarin. It must be the OOC games plus the home/road balance of their common games.

 

Ok. It makes no sense then.

 

As I said, UM played OSU, Nebraska and ND at home. MSU played each of those three on the road. Both played at Iowa. That clearly favors MSU.

 

MSU got Wisconsin at home while UM had to go to Illinois. Another point in MSU's favor.

 

When they played each other, MSU was at home. UM finally gets a check.

 

None of their other 6 games is of any significance or at least not enough to swing the balance back to UM's side.

 

SOS sites are a crock.

[CubColtPacer]

CCP, TT (since you both disagree with me), what is your independent analysis of their schedules. You're intelligent fans. Do you believe UM's schedule was harder, let alone 43 spots harder, like one site has them ranked?

 

It is the OOC games that make Michigan's schedule harder according to the computers.

 

For example, look at the differences in their 2 OOC games that were not in common according to Sagarin:

 

Michigan:

San Diego State-55th (this is better than 5 of the Big 10 teams)

Western Michigan-80th

 

Michigan State:

Youngstown State-126th

Florida Atlantic-174th

 

And then of course MSU played Wisconsin (26th) and Indiana (149th) while Michigan played Illinois (65th) and Purdue (69th).

 

So it just depends on what kind of schedule you like. MSU played 1 more good team than Michigan while Michigan played 2-3 more mediocre teams with a chance to beat them than MSU did. I'd put their schedules as much closer than the computers would and I think their resumes are just about equal right now.

[Guest]

Michigan's OOC opponents were ranked 53rd, 77th, and 118th by Sagarin, with a combined 20-13 record. MSU's were ranked 121st, 139th, and 182nd, with a 10-24 record(6 of those wins being FCS Youngstown State). That's your difference right there.

[Exile on Waveland]

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Why are you ignoring the fact that Michigan isn't any good? Michigan is going to get housed if they get to a BCS game.

 

Michigan is likely to play Houston in a BCS game. If so, I'd say it's far more likely that Michigan does the housing than gets housed.

Edited November 28, 2011 by Exile on Waveland

[jersey cubs fan]

San Diego State-55th (this is better than 5 of the Big 10 teams)

 

San Diego State is ranked that high? That seems crazy.

[jersey cubs fan]

Michigan's OOC opponents were ranked 53rd, 77th, and 118th by Sagarin, with a combined 20-13 record. MSU's were ranked 121st, 139th, and 182nd, with a 10-24 record(6 of those wins being FCS Youngstown State). That's your difference right there.

 

I don't think it's a meaningful distinction when comparing the teams.

[CubColtPacer]

San Diego State-55th (this is better than 5 of the Big 10 teams)

 

San Diego State is ranked that high? That seems crazy.

 

3 of their 4 losses were to Boise, TCU, and Michigan (with their other loss being to the equally decent Wyoming). They beat a couple of the teams close behind them in the rankings like Air Force and Washington State. They are one of those teams that hasn't had enough true tests to have a great idea of their talent level. They've beaten everybody they should, lost to the 3 top 20 teams they played, and won 2 of the 3 games around their talent level.

[Exile on Waveland]

Michigan's OOC opponents were ranked 53rd, 77th, and 118th by Sagarin, with a combined 20-13 record. MSU's were ranked 121st, 139th, and 182nd, with a 10-24 record(6 of those wins being FCS Youngstown State). That's your difference right there.

 

Sure, that's true. But it's hard for me to give much credit to Michigan because their patsies were better than Michigan State's patsies. Michigan State played, and beat Wisconsin (on a fluke, sure), while Michigan did not. That's enough, by my lights, to give Sparty the better resume (especially in such a mediocre league).

[jersey cubs fan]

If MSU loses the title game, absolutely. They will have played a weaker schedule and have a worse record against that schedule. Michigan State will have a fluke win over Wisconsin and a win over Michigan. Michigan has a fluke win over ND and a win over Nebraska. Both teams struggled in some of their other games (Michigan against Ohio State, MSU against Minnesota). Michigan has lost their 2 games by a combined 22 points while MSU lost their two games by 39 points combined. If MSU loses to Wisconsin, that will tip the scales in Michigan's favor. If MSU wins that game, that would tip the scales in MSU's favor (but obviously that would be irrelevant because they would have the automatic bid anyway).

 

Why are you ignoring the fact that Michigan isn't any good? Michigan is going to get housed if they get to a BCS game.

 

Michigan is likely to play Houston in a BCS game. If so, I'd say it's far more likely that Michigan does the housing than gets housed.

 

If they luck into that matchup then they at least stand a chance. Doubt they destroy them though.

[Tracer Bullet]

Haha. So UM is a BCS team bc they played W Michigan and SDSt. I don't think so. MSU played the more difficult schedule.