BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[Bruno7481]

Cheating for power is when you are sitting/looking for the fastball and open up early in order to make solid contact. When you guess right you can really connect and drive the ball. Problem is if you develop a reputation for doing that you aren't likely to see a lot of fastballs. Also, when you guess wrong it does not often lead to the best results.

 

Some guys can do it, but you are sacrificing a lot by doing so.

[Guest]

Someone with Voglebach's size has to be athletic to perform at this high a level. I hope he proves all the naysayers wrong.

[davell]

Vogelbach is probably going to start his career off like Jaff Decker did. Great plate discipline, bad body, but surprisingly athletic. Vogelbach's power is for real though. And I think he'll quickly become a BA "favorite" type. According to AZPhil reports, he's not even a hindrance on the base paths. I think we're all going to love following this guy.

[Vinestal]

Vogelbach is probably going to start his career off like Jaff Decker did. Great plate discipline, bad body, but surprisingly athletic. Vogelbach's power is for real though. And I think he'll quickly become a BA "favorite" type. According to AZPhil reports, he's not even a hindrance on the base paths. I think we're all going to love following this guy.

I believe he stole a base and hit a triple in the instructional leagues.

[Guest]

The Candelario and Hernandez reports were great. I asked Kevin Goldstein about Rhee on Twitter and he said:

 

Definitely in the the 20s. Some tough calls towards the end.

[Guest]

Goldstein said on Twitter than Ben Wells was the last cut on his top 20.

 

Didn't realize the whole thing is free for non-subscribers. I'd definitely recommend reading those scouting reports and the top 10 under 25 at the end. It's nice to know Starlin Castro will be #1 on that list for the next 3 years. Here is Goldstein's final note:

 

Summary: The new collective bargaining agreement adds some challenges to the existing Theo Epstein system of scouting and player development. While there are plenty of future big-leaguers in the organization, most of the players who are going to turn things around are not here yet.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Cheating for power is when you are sitting/looking for the fastball and open up early in order to make solid contact. When you guess right you can really connect and drive the ball. Problem is if you develop a reputation for doing that you aren't likely to see a lot of fastballs. Also, when you guess wrong it does not often lead to the best results.

 

Some guys can do it, but you are sacrificing a lot by doing so.

 

Then it's not so much cheating as it is doing what pretty much any AAAA player does, although Flaherty still has a few more years before getting that lable.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Excellent read, even if we've probably got our top 20's looking quite a bit different than he has his. Surprised Wells and Rhee, maybe even Antigua didn't make his list. Especially since he went the upside route quite a bit otherwise. I think I'm starting to get influenced some on all these reports on Castillo. If he has more trade value than I thought, it's probably a great time to deal him. I think the idea of Maples starting in full season ball next year is very ambitious personally. But I probably shouldn't let a few Instructs innings influence me all that much either. And I too, can't for the life of me figure out what the "cheating for power" line meant either on Flaherty.

 

I just don't see him being our 3rd overall prospect. I didnt even agree with the BA list having him in the top 10. I guess it could be partly because I keep forgetting that he's still pretty young and have been viewing him as being 26 or 27 for the past 3 years. I do agree that we should either consider trading him or roll the dice on him and trade Soto. For what it's worth, on MLBTR chat yesterday someone asked what Sotos trade value wold be and the response was a solid 3 starter. I'd do it. With that site I always keep in mind that when it comes tomactual rumors, he has some of the best intel, but for general speculation, he's no better than anyone else. Sometimes,worse. He still seems to be on The Cubs have money but likely wont do any big spending this offseason boat so hopefully hes wrong there.

[Guest]

Cheating for power is when you are sitting/looking for the fastball and open up early in order to make solid contact. When you guess right you can really connect and drive the ball. Problem is if you develop a reputation for doing that you aren't likely to see a lot of fastballs. Also, when you guess wrong it does not often lead to the best results.

 

Some guys can do it, but you are sacrificing a lot by doing so.

 

Then it's not so much cheating as it is doing what pretty much any AAAA player does, although Flaherty still has a few more years before getting that lable.

 

 

It's called cheating. Haven't you ever heard an announcer say someone cheated on a fastball?

[toonsterwu]

Just not a big fan of Goldstein's 11-20. I also don't get the love people are showing Dolis - even Goldsteins PWP is that of a setup guy who can occasionally close. Don't like Zych at 15 - he acknowledges what everyone knows - below average slider - so what makes Kevin Rhoderick at 92-94 with a plus slider worse than him?

 

Odd comment on Ha's defense - several people commented that he was playing plus defense this year in CF, and I know there are some that think he might actually be the best defensive centerfielder of the top trio (Brett and Matt). Now, if he thinks Ha grows out of CF, that's a different equation, but he doesn't say it.

 

Rhee and Wells behind a guy that KG thinks will be a utility guy is questionable, to say the least (his comment on Marwin at the end). Now, I actually think that Marwin has some more potential, but whether or not he develops the pop is a legitimate question.

 

It just seems like an odd list. Some upside gambles and yet, placed a lot of high floor guys in there. That said, it is a good read and his positive commentary on Marco jibes with what BA had about Marco.

[Guest]

Jim Callis sent his responses to the chat questions. The article is up on the front page. Definitely some interesting tidbits in there!

 

As an example, here is what he had to say about Antigua and Rhee:

 

I don't think either necessarily will get picked because it would be too hard to keep them on a big league roster all season. Antigua has regressed over the last couple of years and I'd be stunned if he got taken. Rhee was a candidate to make our Top 10 list and just missed, so maybe he tempts someone. As he puts Tommy John surgery further behind him, his stuff is getting better. His changeup is often his best pitch, and he has an 88-92 mph fastball and an inconsistent breaking ball.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Yeah, that is the general consensus on those 2. However, one possibility is that the Red Sox and Padres compensations could be that after the Rule 5, they'll get their picks of those who were Rule 5 eiligible but not picked, say the Red Sox get 3 and Pads get 2 and they alternate chosing in which case Rhee and Antigua are sitting ducks,

[davell]

Wow, some interesting stuff, no doubt. Leads to more questions really. How has Antigua regressed, for instance? Stats looked good in Daytona. Hard to believe he missed their top 30. Jose Rosario makes the top 30? What's he got going for him? I would have thought a Liria or Peralta would make the list{hell, maybe they did} ahead of Rosario, but who knows? I haven't had any of them in mine for a while. I think I had Peralta in at one point.

[CUBZ99]

That was great that Callis agreed to do the chat! He gave some nice insight to system and seems a bit more optimistic than I had expected. I especially like his comments regarding Castillo. I guess this Soto trade talk makes sense, if Castillo is viewed that highly.

 

Tim - does Callis frequents NSBB?

[Guest]

Fangraphs does their Top 15. Not a lot of inside information, but good to see other perspectives.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-chicago-cubs/

[Little Slide Rooter]

Fangraphs does their Top 15. Not a lot of inside information, but good to see other perspectives.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-chicago-cubs/

 

Interesting insight and certainly the first list I've seen with Austin Kirk in the top 10. Also, interesting that Lake doesn't even crack the top 15.

[toonsterwu]

Wow, some interesting stuff, no doubt. Leads to more questions really. How has Antigua regressed, for instance? Stats looked good in Daytona. Hard to believe he missed their top 30. Jose Rosario makes the top 30? What's he got going for him? I would have thought a Liria or Peralta would make the list{hell, maybe they did} ahead of Rosario, but who knows? I haven't had any of them in mine for a while. I think I had Peralta in at one point.

 

Rosario probably has one of the more electric fastballs in the system, but to the best of my knowledge, everything else is very, very raw and he's still working on fastball consistently. I mean, Rosario might arguably have a better fastball than Peralta in terms of life (a lot of Peralta's excitement is projection, but IIRC, there was some disappointment this year in his progression).

[toonsterwu]

I actually like aspects of Hulet's list this year, but Kirk at 9? I mean, I like Kirk, and despite my best efforts to sell him to ... me ... at times, he's a guy who has a hard time getting his fastball past 90 on a good day. Add in little room for projection with his frame, and 9 ... well, that seems high to me.

 

All that said, really, after the top few, I guess you could make a case for a lot of guys in the back 10 and have enough points to argue with. Just wasn't too huge with Kirk at 9.

[Outshined_One]

Toonster just posted his Top 30.

 

You might want to fix your link to the Callis Q&A, though. There's a period at the end of the url that results in a 404.

[Guest]

This is mainly addressed to the usual crew, but also for everyone else...

 

I still want us to put together the annual nsbb top 30 prospects, but I'm holding off for now to see if anything happens on the trade front in the next week or so.

[toonsterwu]

Toonster just posted his Top 30.

 

You might want to fix your link to the Callis Q&A, though. There's a period at the end of the url that results in a 404.

 

and I already want to change some things but headed out to a fricking January 2nd meeting. Anyhow, doubt anyone reads through that gigantic thing.

[davell]

Phenomenal. Best breakdown we'll get. Thanks a bunch Toonster. My guess is from Sickels, we'll get Brett as a B+, Baez, Szczur, and McNutt as B's and Maples, Castillo, Torreyes, Vitters, and possibly Lake as B-'s. Love the Hernandez grade, think you hated not going B- on Wells and probably wanted to go higher on Candelario. Am I right?

[davell]

Looking through other systems, especially after a couple of teams gutted their's for guys recently, I'd say we're in the 18-22 range. If we trade Garza and Byrd(he'd at least get us back a couple of guys that slot in our top 30's anyway) and sign Jorge Soler, how high does the system go? Top 10ish? Maybe a tad higher?

[toonsterwu]

Phenomenal. Best breakdown we'll get. Thanks a bunch Toonster. My guess is from Sickels, we'll get Brett as a B+, Baez, Szczur, and McNutt as B's and Maples, Castillo, Torreyes, Vitters, and possibly Lake as B-'s. Love the Hernandez grade, think you hated not going B- on Wells and probably wanted to go higher on Candelario. Am I right?

 

I tried my best to avoid my own biases in "grading" and "ranking" these guys (I mean, I think I've made clear before how lukewarm I am on Ha. Lake was a case where I think the issues are so great based on repeated years of problems that it's hard for me to buy it until he shows otherwise), but obviously personal bias factors into these things, particularly if I see a guy. What I will say is

 

- my gut instinct was to place McNutt 2/3. I really believe that a lot of his issues were due to injury. Like I've said before, I think he was over-hyped after 2010, so it's not like I'm expecting an ace quality arm here. But I believe that a lot of the inconsistencies on the breaking ball and mechanical issues had more to do with the blisters and rib injury, thus disrupting his ability to develop a rhythm.

 

- I still, "gut instinct" would go Ben Wells ahead of Maples and Castillo. Tis me, and I understand the arguments for Maples/Castillo ahead of him (the former is "upside" in the form of development of the breaking ball, the latter is pure readiness at a high value position).

 

- To be honest, I'm not sure how much higher I could've gone with Candelario. If my comments seemed to suggest that I was leaning to putting him significantly higher, oops. Didn't mean to. Maybe ahead of Vogelbach, and Whitenack is that odd anomaly in ranking this year. I don't think I could put him ahead of Beeler/Golden because of long term positional uncertainty and the fact that his power is a lot of projection right now, whereas, we know with Golden, that the power is there.

 

- I still would like to put Struck higher. I've been a fan of his through and through, but it's just heard to justify it, despite the good numbers. A couple spots, perhaps. Depends on how one views the pen arms ahead of him, but Dolis does have legitimate closer potential if all goes well, and Beliveau was simply too dominant, in the end, for me to slide Struck ahead of him when Struck has to work on his secondary stuff.

 

- I have a tough time putting pen arms too high in general, but in general, I don't see a pen arm that I could really justify, off their stuff or recent efforts, to go significantly higher than where I have them.

 

- I can see people putting Torreyes really high. With guys like Torreyes, I tend to want to see it to believe it sometimes (outside of irrationally liking someone - for example, I still irrationally like Matt Cerda at 2nd to an extent, despite the fact that he's poor defensively there and has no pop to threaten).

 

- I really wanted to put Antigua higher. In an earlier run through (and I think I posted that here), I had him 13th or 14th, but at the end of the day, even accounting for some reports I got of him touching 92/93, he's still a soft tossing lefty with a limited ceiling (best case seems to be a 4/5 that has a couple good years at a "3"ish level).

 

- I really wanted to put Amaya higher, but I want to see what positional route they go with him and how his bat develops.

 

- I really didn't want Sappelt in the top 30. Just don't think he's a starter, but he's close enough, with a strong enough track record, that I could only go with so many upside guys ahead of him.

 

- I really, really pondered Logan Watkins a long time, but how much of that summer surge was real? I've looked at the numbers, and I remember seeing him hit during that stretch, and I just don't know if I buy it more as a fluke couple months (with a huge spike in power in July). I can see a case for him top 30.

 

- I really wanted to get Aaron Kurcz in the top 30. I really like him a lot, but the flyball issues bother me enough, and combine that with my distaste for ranking pen arms high, he was out.

 

- Off the top (and I have a list somewhere of guys that were borderline but don't have it in front of me), Chen was another close case. I'm not sure I'm a believer yet that he's a "soft" hitter that can make it up the ladder, but he was impressive offensively and defensively. Still, only so many light-hitting guys that you can put in the top 30 and feel all that comfortable.

 

- To be honest, I pondered Rebel Ridling quite a bit. Besides the cool name, he bookended his season with strong months, but the disappointment in between, particularly on the power front, made it tough to buy him as more than a corner bench guy. A useful asset, but it was tough for me to squeeze him in.

 

- In an initial run through, I went from 9-50 as C+'s, and I think there's a case for the guys I turned into C's to be C+'s, but I decided to be a bit tougher.

 

- Kevin Rhoderick was awfully, awfully close to squeezing in. 92-94, plus slider. Is Tony Zych's better velo enough to compensate? I admit, I might've let draft status and where people are placing him influence me.

 

- Tough for me to squeeze in any other draft guys. Too raw, or too little known.

[toonsterwu]

Looking through other systems, especially after a couple of teams gutted their's for guys recently, I'd say we're in the 18-22 range. If we trade Garza and Byrd(he'd at least get us back a couple of guys that slot in our top 30's anyway) and sign Jorge Soler, how high does the system go? Top 10ish? Maybe a tad higher?

 

Oh, my hunch on Sickels is

 

B+ - Brett/Javier

B - Szczur (maybe), Maples (maybe)

B- - McNutt, Torreyes (wouldn't surprise me if he went B on him), Hernandez, Antigua (he mentioned once that he really liked him so if there's a surprise, that could be it)

 

________

 

I haven't contemplated all of Sickels grades, but I'd guess that we're 20-24, but after a Garza trade, we could go as high as 12-16, depending on the return. Adding a Soler perhaps kicks us up to 10-14. Again, a lot of hypothetical guessing on a Garza package, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs decided to hold firm and not deal (although I think they will, his value is at a peak here, where teams have 2-team controlled years and he's coming off his peak season, showing development).