Hoyer, McLeod officially join Cubs

[bukie]

And all of your fixes are completely vague assumptions (plus hoping for luck).

 

Presuming the removal of bad luck is not the same as hoping for luck.

 

You've got a nice racket going. You get to make vague statements of doom and dodge any attempt to be pinned down to specifics. Then when someone disagrees, you either nitpick the specifics or accuse them of not providing any.

 

Okay, this time with specifics for you to pick at:

 

The Cubs got 0.8 WAR out of 72 starts (roughly two rotation spots) from the parade of awful replacement pitchers last year and the injured Randy Wells.

 

They got 0.3 WAR out of RF.

 

Matt Garza gave up 0.8 WAR worth of runs more than his FIP would predict. Ryan Dempster gave up 2.0 WAR more. (Obviously, defense was a part of that, but this is where we'll include the assumption that the Cubs have a better defense in 2012, which I think is reasonable).

 

If the Cubs spend $30 million on pitching to fill those two rotation spots at the prevailing price of about $4 million per WAR, they get an upgrade of 6.7 WAR.

 

If Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster get back to their predictive FIP rather than their descriptive ERA, then you get another 2.8 WAR back.

 

That's 9.5 wins of upgrade without touching 1b.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with most of what you're saying here, but I'm not sure it's safe to assume the Cubs will be better defensively when their only above average defender (Pena) is likely gone (although, Soto is probably above average at his position, though it's difficult to measure for catchers). The organizational philosophy will change, but I'm not sure the players will automatically be better defensively as a result. If the Cubs bring in Fielder, they may actually be worse.

[SABR Gamer]

Here's the simplest way I can put things with Ramirez.

 

Unless the Cubs raise the payroll to 140-150 million, it's going to take some creative(or unlikely) circumstances for the team to be competitive in 2012.

 

Ramirez only has real value to the team for the next year or two.

 

Therefore, you should only bring back Ramirez if you fit him into those already narrow parameters. Considering he's already turned down 1/16 and he's by far the best(and maybe the only) starting 3B on the market, I don't think it's at all likely he can fit in those parameters.

 

Now if in a week Theoyer manages to trade all of Z's contract for Logan Morrison and then pays half of Soriano's contract to go somewhere else, then let's bring back Aramis. But as much as I want to be competitive next year, I want the pieces acquired this offseason to be solutions for the next 3+ years. And that means that guys like Aramis, Oswalt, Buehrle, Beltran, etc. need to be a final piece that happens to fit in financially, not a linchpin of the offseason that we lament if they can't be acquired.

 

 

Who do you see that is available this offseason that can be a solution for the next 3+ years? (Outside of the obvious Pujols/Fielder)

 

You think Headley will show enough power improvement leaving SD to be a cornerstone? Ian Stewart? I am just curious. I don't think resigning Aramis is a good idea at all, but I just don't know who's out there that really blows me away.

[Exile on Waveland]

Let's just say we spend the remaining $40 million on Wilson and someone middling like Oswalt.

 

If we take Aramis Ramirez's mother's projections for his 2012 and assume that the Baker Brigade is replacement level, then you are still left with no more than a 4-win gap. A realistic projection is more like a 1-2 WAR gap.

 

Assuming Pena drops back a little and Pujols recovers to his 2010 numbers, that'a 5-win gap. From Fielder to Pena is about 3.5.

 

Using 2011 WAR (extrapolating to a full season for Oswalt), you get 5.8 WAR for replacing the fifth-starter horrors with CJ Wilson, and you get 3 wins for replacing Wells with Oswalt.

 

There are many paths by which the Cubs' remaining $40 million can improve the team significantly. It's absurd to simultaneously argue that the Cubs are terrible and that there's only two ways that $40 million worth of players can improve them.

I think it's interesting that Oswalt's name shows up in this conversation.

 

If Ramirez had played his career in, say, Detroit and Seattle, folks here would be about as interested in signing him as they are in signing Oswalt. The two are about as similar as a hitter and a pitcher can be... the age, the WAR figures, the injury concern, the pricetag etc.

 

I understand your point . . . but I would trade Ramirez for pitcher-Ramirez. Just as I would trade Soriano for pitcher-Soriano (Zito?). I also suspect Ramirez will receive a larger deal than Oswalt.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't necessarily disagree with most of what you're saying here, but I'm not sure it's safe to assume the Cubs will be better defensively when their only above average defender (Pena) is likely gone (although, Soto is probably above average at his position, though it's difficult to measure for catchers). The organizational philosophy will change, but I'm not sure the players will automatically be better defensively as a result. If the Cubs bring in Fielder, they may actually be worse.

 

Only above-average defender? Darwin Barney is going to throw a ball at your head. And he'll probably hit it, because he's a good defender.

 

Jackson to CF, Byrd to RF and anyone to 3b should all be significant improvements over last year. Plus I'm projecting some improvement from Castro`.

[Guest]

I don't necessarily disagree with most of what you're saying here, but I'm not sure it's safe to assume the Cubs will be better defensively when their only above average defender (Pena) is likely gone (although, Soto is probably above average at his position, though it's difficult to measure for catchers). The organizational philosophy will change, but I'm not sure the players will automatically be better defensively as a result. If the Cubs bring in Fielder, they may actually be worse.

 

Jackson to CF, Byrd to RF and anyone to 3b should all be significant improvements over last year. Plus I'm projecting some improvement from Castro`.

 

 

Well, some of that OF improvement is mitigated by how good Fukudome was in RF through the time he was here.

 

But 3B should be easy to improve on....and Castro should, hopefully speaking, only get better.

[tfarks]

Not super worried about getting average to below average at 1b when we it shouldn't be difficult to get improved defense from 3b and SS. Assuming Castro makes a leap forward defensively.

[tfarks]

I'm slow.

[bukie]

I don't necessarily disagree with most of what you're saying here, but I'm not sure it's safe to assume the Cubs will be better defensively when their only above average defender (Pena) is likely gone (although, Soto is probably above average at his position, though it's difficult to measure for catchers). The organizational philosophy will change, but I'm not sure the players will automatically be better defensively as a result. If the Cubs bring in Fielder, they may actually be worse.

 

Only above-average defender? Darwin Barney is going to throw a ball at your head. And he'll probably hit it, because he's a good defender.

 

Jackson to CF, Byrd to RF and anyone to 3b should all be significant improvements over last year. Plus I'm projecting some improvement from Castro`.

Is it wrong that I forgot Barney was a starter?

[Guest]

Kyle with the ninja edit.

[SABR Gamer]

I don't necessarily disagree with most of what you're saying here, but I'm not sure it's safe to assume the Cubs will be better defensively when their only above average defender (Pena) is likely gone (although, Soto is probably above average at his position, though it's difficult to measure for catchers). The organizational philosophy will change, but I'm not sure the players will automatically be better defensively as a result. If the Cubs bring in Fielder, they may actually be worse.

 

Jackson to CF, Byrd to RF and anyone to 3b should all be significant improvements over last year. Plus I'm projecting some improvement from Castro`.

 

Jackson should be a nice improvement, and I just get a feeling Castro is going to destroy this year, more walks, .800+ OPS at least, better D.

 

Byrd is pretty bad though, I don't know if he is really that much of an upgrade for anything. His offense will continue to decline, and switching to RF makes his weak bat even more of a sore. His defensive value might go up playing in a corner, but nowhere near making up for his weak bat.

 

Marlon is fine if we are just trying to get by, but I am not a fan of his at all anymore. I would much rather platoon him with Sizemore than trust him full time.

[Guest]

Who do you see that is available this offseason that can be a solution for the next 3+ years? (Outside of the obvious Pujols/Fielder)

 

You think Headley will show enough power improvement leaving SD to be a cornerstone? Ian Stewart? I am just curious. I don't think resigning Aramis is a good idea at all, but I just don't know who's out there that really blows me away.

 

It's a difficult question because it's November 2nd and we don't know how the trade market will shake out. I don't know if Headley or Stewart is a cornerstone about to break out. But I'd rather roll the dice with Headley/Stewart and CJ Wilson than roll the dice with Ramirez and Wells/Cashner. The expected value in 2012 is about the same, and the potential value beyond 2012 is much greater.

[bukie]

Who do you see that is available this offseason that can be a solution for the next 3+ years? (Outside of the obvious Pujols/Fielder)

 

You think Headley will show enough power improvement leaving SD to be a cornerstone? Ian Stewart? I am just curious. I don't think resigning Aramis is a good idea at all, but I just don't know who's out there that really blows me away.

 

It's a difficult question because it's November 2nd and we don't know how the trade market will shake out. I don't know if Headley or Stewart is a cornerstone about to break out. But I'd rather roll the dice with Headley/Stewart and CJ Wilson than roll the dice with Ramirez and Wells/Cashner. The expected value in 2012 is about the same, and the potential value beyond 2012 is much greater.

Is Wilson Betemit a passable fielder at 3B, and a FA this offseason? He might be another option.

[SABR Gamer]

Kyle with the ninja edit.

 

Yeah, I didn't read the previous quote so I thought he was talking overall, not defensively.

 

With his edit, I agree that all of those should be defensive upgrades.

 

Still doesn't work out for Byrd though, because I think any defensive plus he is will be given back with his poor hitting. wOBA of .315 last year, he is a below average hitter and will be in his age 34/35 season, I am not looking forward to it.

[sneakypower]

Take the platoon idea out of it.

 

What's your projected 2012 WAR as a full-time starting 3b from:

 

Aramis Ramirez

Jeff Baker

The best veteran stopgap $2 million can buy.

 

Without putting much time into it,

 

Ramirez: 2.5 WAR

Baker full-time: 0 WAR

Best available $2M stopgap (Betemit/Cairo/Hairston/Chavez): 1.0 WAR

i hate all three of these options (well, Ramirez, much less so)

 

the correct answer is signing Ian Stewart and getting 2-3 WAR for $4M(ish)

-or-

trading (McNutt? Vitters? Szczur?) for Headley and getting 3-4 WAR for $3M

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Still doesn't work out for Byrd though, because I think any defensive plus he is will be given back with his poor hitting. wOBA of .315 last year, he is a below average hitter and will be in his age 34/35 season, I am not looking forward to it.

 

We're talking about upgrades/downgrades vs. the 2011 Cubs, though.

 

While I'm not in love with Marlon Byrd as my every day RFer, the Cubs got a .252/321/390 line out of the position last year.

[SABR Gamer]

Who do you see that is available this offseason that can be a solution for the next 3+ years? (Outside of the obvious Pujols/Fielder)

 

You think Headley will show enough power improvement leaving SD to be a cornerstone? Ian Stewart? I am just curious. I don't think resigning Aramis is a good idea at all, but I just don't know who's out there that really blows me away.

 

It's a difficult question because it's November 2nd and we don't know how the trade market will shake out. I don't know if Headley or Stewart is a cornerstone about to break out. But I'd rather roll the dice with Headley/Stewart and CJ Wilson than roll the dice with Ramirez and Wells/Cashner. The expected value in 2012 is about the same, and the potential value beyond 2012 is much greater.

 

I completely agree that Headley/Stewart + CJ >>> Ramirez + Wells/Cashner. I was more asking if Headley/Stewart was really the best option we have, because I don't know if that is really the difference maker we need. Sure either one could break out, but I would want to explore all options before going in that direction.

 

Is David Wright young enough to be worth a shot? Change of scenery, better hitters park. 04-08 or even 2010 David Wright + PF/AP + CJ and we would be a pretty good team. That's a pretty large stretch though.

[Guest]

 

i hate all three of these options (well, Ramirez, much less so)

 

the correct answer is signing Ian Stewart and getting 2-3 WAR for $4M(ish)

-or-

trading (McNutt? Vitters? Szczur?) for Headley and getting 3-4 WAR for $3M

 

 

Signing him? I don't think he's a FA... or you expecting him to be non-tendered or something like that?

[Rob]

I'm expecting our bench to be significantly better than it was last season, FWIW. Tyler Colvin isn't exactly the best 4th OF in baseball, but he's not going to put up a .510 OPS again either. Koyie Hill will be replaced by Castillo or Clevenger but even if he isn't, even Koyie Hill isn't as bad as he was last year. Tony Campana was better than his numbers would indicate. Baker can do much better if whoever is managing doesn't try to make him hit righties.

 

The only performance we're likely to miss is Reed Johnson.

[Guest]

Stewart got sent to AAA in August and did not return for September call-ups, and he'll be arbitration eligible after making 2.3 million this year. I think it's safe to call him a likely non-tender candidate.

[Guest]

Stewart got sent to AAA in August and did not return for September call-ups, and he'll be arbitration eligible after making 2.3 million this year. I think it's safe to call him a likely non-tender candidate.

 

 

Well that would be awesome if it ends up happening.

[Rob]

Stewart is a definite non-tender candidate. I doubt the Rockies decide to carry both him and Kevin Kouzmanoff, so one or the other is likely gone through some means. But for the record, I don't really want Stewart. It's rare that you'll hear me say this, so pay attention... he strikes out too much.

 

Of course, my position is subject to change if the front office actually acquires him, as I'll assume they see something they think they can fix. Having a competent front office is really messing with my ability to simply declare things "good" or "bad."

[toonsterwu]

Take the platoon idea out of it.

 

What's your projected 2012 WAR as a full-time starting 3b from:

 

Aramis Ramirez

Jeff Baker

The best veteran stopgap $2 million can buy.

 

Without putting much time into it,

 

Ramirez: 2.5 WAR

Baker full-time: 0 WAR

Best available $2M stopgap (Betemit/Cairo/Hairston/Chavez): 1.0 WAR

i hate all three of these options (well, Ramirez, much less so)

 

the correct answer is signing Ian Stewart and getting 2-3 WAR for $4M(ish)

-or-

trading (McNutt? Vitters? Szczur?) for Headley and getting 3-4 WAR for $3M

 

You are assuming Stewart will definitely come free and be non-tendered. I'm just not sure that it's a lock to happen. I actually think Colorado might end up holding onto him. It comes down to whether or not they can find a better option (like David Wright), but do they really want to pony up the chips for Wright?

 

Also, Stewart does have some flags. I like his potential land wouldn't mind a gamble on him, but IIRC, there's been some work ethic concerns along with his aggressive style, for lack of a better word, at the plate.

[toonsterwu]

Stewart is a definite non-tender candidate. I doubt the Rockies decide to carry both him and Kevin Kouzmanoff, so one or the other is likely gone through some means. But for the record, I don't really want Stewart. It's rare that you'll hear me say this, so pay attention... he strikes out too much.

 

Of course, my position is subject to change if the front office actually acquires him, as I'll assume they see something they think they can fix. Having a competent front office is really messing with my ability to simply declare things "good" or "bad."

 

Kouzmanoff is a free agent unless the lists out there are wrong.

[Guest]

 

You are assuming Stewart will definitely come free and be non-tendered. I'm just not sure that it's a lock to happen. I actually think Colorado might end up holding onto him. It comes down to whether or not they can find a better option (like David Wright), but do they really want to pony up the chips for Wright?

 

Also, Stewart does have some flags. I like his potential land wouldn't mind a gamble on him, but IIRC, there's been some work ethic concerns along with his aggressive style, for lack of a better word, at the plate.

 

 

I think a better characterization would just be inability to make contact. He's definitely patient.

[Rob]

Stewart is a definite non-tender candidate. I doubt the Rockies decide to carry both him and Kevin Kouzmanoff, so one or the other is likely gone through some means. But for the record, I don't really want Stewart. It's rare that you'll hear me say this, so pay attention... he strikes out too much.

 

Of course, my position is subject to change if the front office actually acquires him, as I'll assume they see something they think they can fix. Having a competent front office is really messing with my ability to simply declare things "good" or "bad."

 

Kouzmanoff is a free agent unless the lists out there are wrong.

 

It's entirely possible. I have been known to drink too much.