Phillies decline options on Oswalt & Lidge

[Clem Fandango]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7145048/roy-oswalt-brad-lidge-2012-options-declined-philadelphia-phillies

 

PHILADELPHIA -- The Phillies have declined the 2012 options for pitchers Roy Oswalt and Brad Lidge.

 

Oswalt gets a $2 million buyout instead of $16 million next season. Lidge receives a $1.5 million buyout instead of $12.5 million next year.

 

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said the team will consider re-signing both players. The five-time defending NL East champions lost to St. Louis in five games in the division round.

[SABR Gamer]

Would anyone be interested in 3/30 for Oswalt?

 

3/36?

 

3/39?

 

just two years ago he put up a sub 3 era with a WHIP barely over 1.

 

(2.76/1.03)

 

His babip was well below his norm, but he had a FIP/xFIP of 3.27/3.31 in 2010.

 

Babip was more normal last year, FIP/xFIP still at 3.44/3.95 in 2011.

Edited October 24, 2011 by New York Cubs Fan

[mookie]

3/30...oh yeah...drool

[SABR Gamer]

3/30...oh yeah...drool

 

Well Philly just declined him for 16 for only one year, what do you expect him to get?

[OleMissCub]

I'd be fine with 3/30. Other than last year when he took time off for personal stuff, he had 7 straight seasons with over 30 or more starts. He's been remarkably healthy throughout his career. So not only would he eat a lot of innings for us but he's still a pretty decent pitcher as well.

 

Although I'm certain the Yanks will overpay to get him and so this is probably a moot discussion in the end.

 

As far as Lidge is concerned, he probably just suffered some PTSD flashback watching Pujols go yard off Ogando, so unless he was super cheap I'd pass.

[Cubswin11]

I'd be fine with 3/30. Other than last year when he took time off for personal stuff, he had 7 straight seasons with over 30 or more starts. He's been remarkably healthy throughout his career. So not only would he eat a lot of innings for us but he's still a pretty decent pitcher as well.

 

Although I'm certain the Yanks will overpay to get him and so this is probably a moot discussion in the end.

As far as Lidge is concerned, he probably just suffered some PTSD flashback watching Pujols go yard off Ogando, so unless he was super cheap I'd pass.

Agreed. I could see them valuing him more than Wilson and making him their #1 priority.

[davell]

I'd go 2 for 28 if necessary. I've always been an Oswalt fan though. I'd prefer 2 years, hence the larger AAV. 3 years, I'd give him 36.

[dew1679666265]

I'd still prefer Wilson to Oswalt (younger/less mileage primarily), but this is good news. It either gives us another fallback option or the bidding on Oswalt might take away a suitor from the Wilson sweepstakes.

[shnsajax]

If you could get Oswalt for 2 years I would prefer him over Wilson. Hell they might be hunting buddies and would want to play together.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Isn't Oswalt one of those guys who actually didn't like the Cubs when he was with Houston? Not that that would stop me from wanting him to sign here, just that it probably stops him.

[dew1679666265]

If you could get Oswalt for 2 years I would prefer him over Wilson. Hell they might be hunting buddies and would want to play together.

 

I wouldn't. Wilson's the better pitcher (4-5 WAR vs 3-4 for Oswalt), he's younger, and has far less mileage on his arm. Plus, if you give 5 years to Wilson you have him for his elite years and then through his age 36 season. If you give 2 years to Oswalt, you don't get his elite years, but you still have him through his age 36 season.

 

I just don't see the upside to Oswalt.

[biittner77]

I just don't see the upside to Oswalt.

 

He'd be significantly cheaper and to a certain extent is more of a known commodity.

[Guest]

Oswalt is small, 34 years old, has a history of back issues, and threw less than 140 innings this year. Giving him multiple years or 8 figures, never mind both, would be a very bad idea.

[dew1679666265]

I just don't see the upside to Oswalt.

 

He'd be significantly cheaper and to a certain extent is more of a known commodity.

 

Cheaper, yes. Significantly? Depends on what you think Wilson will get. If you think he'll end up at $18+ then Oswalt might be significantly cheaper. If you think he'll fall more in the $15-17 range, then I doubt it. I'd be stunned if Oswalt got less than a Ted Lilly with the Cubs type deal and probably more in monetary value.

 

I don't know how much more of a known commodity he is either. He has a longer track record, but has thrown far more innings, is older, and is far more likely to decline or fall off a cliff than Wilson is. Barring injury for either, worst case scenario for Wilson is probably what Oswalt has done the past couple of years. Worst case scenario for Oswalt is that he takes another step back and is a 1-2 win player in his next deal.

[OleMissCub]

Oswalt is small, 34 years old, has a history of back issues, and threw less than 140 innings this year. Giving him multiple years or 8 figures, never mind both, would be a very bad idea.

 

Whatever back issues (spasms) he has are not something that have had too much of a negative impact on him considering that coming back from the DL he only pitched under 6 IP one time in 10 starts and that was 5.2 IP. Small sample size no doubt, but his history of back issues aren't something that have hampered him all that much looking at his career.

 

In his previous nine years as a full time starter he averaged 208 IP/year and only had under 210 IP three times (127 -03, 208.2 - 08, 181.1 - 09).

 

His DL stint and his increasing age are certainly matters of concern, but he's been remarkably durable throughout his career. I think he'd be a valuable 3rd or 4th pitcher for the right price. Anything over 2 years I'd shy away from though.

 

And what does him being small have to do with anything? That's the same dumb reason that Mississippi State and Ole Miss passed on him and he ended up playing at a lame JUCO down the road.

[biittner77]

Cheaper, yes. Significantly? Depends on what you think Wilson will get. If you think he'll end up at $18+ then Oswalt might be significantly cheaper. If you think he'll fall more in the $15-17 range, then I doubt it. I'd be stunned if Oswalt got less than a Ted Lilly with the Cubs type deal and probably more in monetary value.

 

I expect Wilson to get close to $20 million per since both the Yankees and Red Sox need starting pitching. I'd expect Oswalt to get around $12 million per for 3 years. The Phillies weren't willing to give him $16 million. That suggests that the market for him is somewhere between 10-14 million.

 

I consider 6-8 million to be significant.

[East Coast Cubbies]

As others have mentioned here, I'd expect the market for starting pitching to be stiff this year, driven by both the Red Sox collapse being inextricably tied to its starting pitching and the Yankees needing at least one new starting pitcher (not to mention the Angels and others). Oswalt is only 34, and while he has a history of back problems, it seems like this was the first year that it really gave him any significant trouble. Given both of these factors, I'd be surprised if Oswalt didn't get more than two years, and like others here, I would be uncomfortable with the Cubs giving him any more than two years. Much as I think he'd be a decent third or fourth starter (and if healthy, a second), I think other teams will overpay for him.

[dew1679666265]

I expect Wilson to get close to $20 million per since both the Yankees and Red Sox need starting pitching. I'd expect Oswalt to get around $12 million per for 3 years. The Phillies weren't willing to give him $16 million. That suggests that the market for him is somewhere between 10-14 million.

 

I consider 6-8 million to be significant.

 

With Darvish, Oswalt, and possibly CC on the market, plus the outside possibility of Wainwright and/or Carpenter hitting the market should the Cards either bring back Pujols or need the salary help, there's a very good chance Wilson won't be the main target of either the Yankees or Red Sox. Bidding for Wilson could get into the $20 million range, but it's certainly not the most likely scenario.

 

Most likely salary range for Wilson, I'd guess, would be in the $16-18 per range.

[Splendid Splinter]

With Darvish, Oswalt, and possibly CC on the market, plus the outside possibility of Wainwright and/or Carpenter hitting the market should the Cards either bring back Pujols or need the salary help, there's a very good chance Wilson won't be the main target of either the Yankees or Red Sox. Bidding for Wilson could get into the $20 million range, but it's certainly not the most likely scenario.

 

Most likely salary range for Wilson, I'd guess, would be in the $16-18 per range.

 

 

Just wanted to say this... as I've seen some mentioned Carpenter possibly being a FA this offseason in a couple threads already. Didn't he sign an extension like a month or 2 ago? I could've swore he signed like 2-3 years extension for like 20 mil???

[Guest]

Carpenter did only have a team option for next year, but that got ripped up in September when he signed a 2/21 extension through 2013.

[davell]

Wainright's option's were exercised this week. He's there through 2013 now officially. Plus, the Yankees are trying to lock up CC at more money per year and an extra year or two. It's not looking like he'll hit the market now. As for Oswalt, I seem to remember he doesn't like the Cubs as well. Whether that means he wouldn't consider us is yet to be known obviously. But I kind of like him on a 2 year deal more than Wilson getting 100 mill from us as well. Mainly because of the dearth of pitching available next offseason.

[dew1679666265]

Just wanted to say this... as I've seen some mentioned Carpenter possibly being a FA this offseason in a couple threads already. Didn't he sign an extension like a month or 2 ago? I could've swore he signed like 2-3 years extension for like 20 mil???

 

You're correct. I completely blanked out on the extension he signed.

[dew1679666265]

Wainright's option's were exercised this week. He's there through 2013 now officially. Plus, the Yankees are trying to lock up CC at more money per year and an extra year or two. It's not looking like he'll hit the market now.

 

This is all good news for the Cubs, I think. By committing $9 million next year and $12 million in 2013 to Wainwright, the Cards now only have $35 million before arbitration raises in free money next year. Pujols would have to accept a very team friendly deal at this point to have any chance of returning to St. Louis.

 

As for CC possibly re-upping with the Yankees, they have $54 million (pre-arbitration raises) freed up if they don't raise payroll. If CC eats up something like $5-8 of that in a raise, it may make them less of a player for high-end arms like Wilson and Darvish.

 

As for Oswalt, I seem to remember he doesn't like the Cubs as well. Whether that means he wouldn't consider us is yet to be known obviously. But I kind of like him on a 2 year deal more than Wilson getting 100 mill from us as well. Mainly because of the dearth of pitching available next offseason.

 

I don't know that Wilson would get $100 million, especially if the Yankees don't get involved. A 5/$80-85 type deal would be pretty realistic, I think. That becomes more likely if the Red Sox, Rangers, or Nats get infatuated with Darvish.

[davell]

In the end, I agree 5 for 80 or 85 would be solid for us, if it got us CJ. But, I just don't see the Yankees and Red Sox steering clear. I can see him getting 100 mill from someone. Maybe even a darkhorse team like the Nats giving it to him. If this winds up being the case, I hope we wait until next year to go after one of that group.

[dew1679666265]

In the end, I agree 5 for 80 or 85 would be solid for us, if it got us CJ. But, I just don't see the Yankees and Red Sox steering clear. I can see him getting 100 mill from someone. Maybe even a darkhorse team like the Nats giving it to him. If this winds up being the case, I hope we wait until next year to go after one of that group.

 

Darvish would probably be a bigger splash than Wilson, if that's what the Nats ended up going for. It'll also be interesting to see how aggressive the Yankees and Red Sox are for the top tier guys. After the high-profile busts the Red Sox have had (Lackey/Crawford) and with the Yankees probably having to significantly up CC's pay, they may tend to target the 2nd tier type guys like Oswalt and Buerhle. They may not, but assuming Wilson will get a $100 million deal is jumping the gun and ignoring the potential status of the market, I think.