CJ Wilson thread: Signed by Angels 5/$77.5 million pg 10

[jersey cubs fan]

Before his injury, Lieber also had 203, 251, and 232 IP the 3 years prior, and 1500+ MLB IP total. Wilson has 700+ MLB IP.

 

And he's coming off 230 IP and 232 and counting so far this season. And he racked up those extreme innings with an arm that was absolutely not prepared to do it.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't know if I want to take a chance on a 31 year old starter with two good years under his belt. Has he been good in his limited starting time? Absolutely? But enough for me to be comfortable as the highest bidder on a 4-5 year contract? Probably not.

 

Why not? 3 years as an excellent starter in a very hitter's-friendly ballpark. Much less wear and tear on his body than the usual 31-year-old starter due to him having been a reliever.

 

Jon Lieber was also a relatively young arm with little wear on his arm when Dusty Baker gave him the rain delay treatment and within a year or so he was under the knife.

 

That was Baylor.

 

That's right.

[jersey cubs fan]

Before his injury, Lieber also had 203, 251, and 232 IP the 3 years prior, and 1500+ MLB IP total. Wilson has 700+ MLB IP.

 

Yeah. Lieber was piling up huge pitch counts before his injury. The story was that he was a WorkHorse so it didn't matter.

 

He really wasn't racking up huge pitch counts. The guy threw 90 pitch complete games.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Before his injury, Lieber also had 203, 251, and 232 IP the 3 years prior, and 1500+ MLB IP total. Wilson has 700+ MLB IP.

 

Yeah. Lieber was piling up huge pitch counts before his injury. The story was that he was a WorkHorse so it didn't matter.

 

He really wasn't racking up huge pitch counts. The guy threw 90 pitch complete games.

 

Looked it up, you are right. Memory playing tricks on me.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Before his injury, Lieber also had 203, 251, and 232 IP the 3 years prior, and 1500+ MLB IP total. Wilson has 700+ MLB IP.

 

And he's coming off 230 IP and 232 and counting so far this season. And he racked up those extreme innings with an arm that was absolutely not prepared to do it.

 

Yet it did it? Absolutely not prepared? What?

[Clem Fandango]

Before his injury, Lieber also had 203, 251, and 232 IP the 3 years prior, and 1500+ MLB IP total. Wilson has 700+ MLB IP.

 

And he's coming off 230 IP and 232 and counting so far this season. And he racked up those extreme innings with an arm that was absolutely not prepared to do it.

 

Yet it did it? Absolutely not prepared? What?

 

He's saying he was a reliever who got tossed into the rotation spontaneously with only a spring training to prepare for the workload. He tossed 280.2 innings over the course of 5 seasons, then jumped to 427 in the last 2. He's nearly doubled his workload from 5 seasons worth of pitching in 2 years. He threw 17 games this season with 110+ pitches. 13 in 2010. The highest pitch count he had in a game in 2009 was 38. His highest total as a reliever was 50.

 

You can argue his arm doesn't have a lot of mileage on it, and you can argue that making such an extreme jump in workload is dangerous to his arms health. I don't think either argument is wrong, per se, which makes taking a high priced gamble on C.J. Wilson exactly that: a gamble. But it's not "Will he be good or won't he?" it's "Will he be Rich Harden or C.C. Sabathia?"

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

[He's saying he was a reliever who got tossed into the rotation spontaneously with only a spring training to prepare for the workload. He tossed 280.2 innings over the course of 5 seasons, then jumped to 427 in the last 2. He's nearly doubled his workload from 5 seasons worth of pitching in 2 years. He threw 17 games this season with 110+ pitches. 13 in 2010. The highest pitch count he had in a game in 2009 was 38. His highest total as a reliever was 50.

 

You can argue his arm doesn't have a lot of mileage on it, and you can argue that making such an extreme jump in workload is dangerous to his arms health. I don't think either argument is wrong, per se, which makes taking a high priced gamble on C.J. Wilson exactly that: a gamble. But it's not "Will he be good or won't he?" it's "Will he be Rich Harden or C.C. Sabathia?"

 

He has nothing touching Harden's injury history. Does Wilson even have an injury history? He had TJ surgery 8 years ago and that's pretty much it...

 

Other things:

 

The reliever to starter change is nothing new, and his was not fully spontaneous. Wilson has wanted to be in the rotation since he came (as a starter btw), and is a pitcher known to keep himself in tip top shape for the day his chance came up. Given the state of Rangers' pitching before the late 2000's his getting a shot again was almost inevitable...

 

He doubled his workload at 29 and 30, far safer ages to do that than say...21 to 22.

 

He's come out with those pitch counts rising completely unscathed. Hell, he's come out from it a far better and more valuable pitcher than he's ever been.

 

EVERYONE is a risk. Fielder to the layman is a tub of lard. Pujols to the layman is old. CC has been worked like a horse for a decade now. Justin Verlander threw 250 innings throwing really hard (imagine all the work his muscles and joints are doing!). Babe Ruth liked to eat, smoke, and drink. Mickey Mantle played through pain for most of his career (while smoking and drinking...or at least drinking). Ted Williams was an [expletive]. I can do this for anyone. Risk is inherent, and very easy to find if you're looking for it.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm not arguing against you, I'm just pointing out the probable reason why you were confused by JCF's concerns. I personally think his arm will hold up fine.

[Elwood]

Obviously, it's going to be different with each player, but Dempster made the transition to starter after pitching less than 100 innings for 3 straight seasons.

 

2005 - 92.0

2006 - 75.0

2007 - 66.2

 

He has since posted 4 straight with 200+ innings.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I'm not arguing against you, I'm just pointing out the probable reason why you were confused by JCF's concerns. I personally think his arm will hold up fine.

 

Not confused, incredulous! I think/thought that more critical analysis for determining injury risk than "he was once a reliever, then he became a high IP SP, then they left him in for some of an inning he looked bad in after a rain delay. Injury risk just flew up!" It DOES make sense to say that...it's a fairly common train of thought nowadays I think...but risk assessment should go deeper/be a little more individualized than that.

[Clem Fandango]

Like Elwood said, it's different with every pitcher, but it's not uncommon. Case in point: Aaron Harang's extra inning nightmare courtesy of Dusty Baker.

[jersey cubs fan]

Obviously, it's going to be different with each player, but Dempster made the transition to starter after pitching less than 100 innings for 3 straight seasons.

 

2005 - 92.0

2006 - 75.0

2007 - 66.2

 

He has since posted 4 straight with 200+ innings.

 

He was also an established starter before being a reliever, racking up 200+ inning seasons three times while in Florida. Bad comparison.

[AI]

There is not a better conditioned pitcher in MLB than CJ Wilson. He was the one driving the train on being a starter two years ago and came to camp in incredible condition, pitched his ass off, and earned a spot in the rotation.

 

CJ also loves to hit, so there is some appeal to the National League for him.

[jersey cubs fan]

There is not a better conditioned pitcher in MLB than CJ Wilson.

 

 

Oh, well in that case........

[AI]

There is not a better conditioned pitcher in MLB than CJ Wilson.

 

 

Oh, well in that case........

Does that not factor into the durability question?

[jersey cubs fan]

There is not a better conditioned pitcher in MLB than CJ Wilson.

 

 

Oh, well in that case........

Does that not factor into the durability question?

 

No, an arm is not a lung.

 

Big fat slobs have had very durable arms.

 

 

It's also just a throwaway line by you that obviously cannot be verified.

[AI]

There is not a better conditioned pitcher in MLB than CJ Wilson.

 

 

Oh, well in that case........

Does that not factor into the durability question?

 

No, an arm is not a lung.

 

Big fat slobs have had very durable arms.

 

 

It's also just a throwaway line by you that obviously cannot be verified.

It is certainly true that I haven't seen every other pitcher in the MLB work out or have knowledge of their workout routines. How about this: CJ Wilson works incredibly hard at his conditioning and has not had anything close to a durability issue in his two seasons as a starter.

[Clem Fandango]

Pitching injuries are sporadic, unpredictable, and when it all comes down to it, unpreventable. You can do your due diligence to prevent them by limiting pitch counts and inning limits, etc... but that isn't a guarantee to stop an injury from occurring. Prime example: Stephen Strasburg.

 

It's nice that Wilson's body will hold up because he's in tremendous shape, but it's his arm that's most important, and if history will tell us anything it's that arm injuries can occur regardless of how many steps you take to make sure they don't.

 

Another good example is Jarrod Parker. When I was working for the Bay Bears a couple years ago he was on the team and I'm pretty sure they had him on a pitch count and inning limit. I want to say somewhere between 75-90 pitches and 5 or 6 innings. Pretty standard. Dude was a beast, physically, too. Incredibly fit.

 

Blew his elbow out, got Tommy John.

 

Physical fitness does not guarantee no injuries.

[Guest]

Not sure whether to put this in the Darvish thread or the CJ thread, but for our purposes, it's more relevant to CJ.

 

 

Yankees prefer Darvish over Wilson

8:18 AM ET

New York Yankees TopEmailComments5

If CC bolts, the Yankees may have another option.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors?date=20111025&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2ffeatures%2frumors%3fdate%3d20111025#11212

 

 

It's an insider link, so I haven't seen anything beyond that headline... but it'd be nice if one major player is out of the CJ race.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Not sure whether to put this in the Darvish thread or the CJ thread, but for our purposes, it's more relevant to CJ.

 

 

Yankees prefer Darvish over Wilson

8:18 AM ET

New York Yankees TopEmailComments5

If CC bolts, the Yankees may have another option.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors?date=20111025&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2ffeatures%2frumors%3fdate%3d20111025#11212

 

 

It's an insider link, so I haven't seen anything beyond that headline... but it'd be nice if one major player is out of the CJ race.

 

I'd like to get in on the Darvish race. I know I should be terrified of Japanese players coming across, but Darvish is legitimately the most talented one to come to the States since Hideki Matsui, IMO.

[dew1679666265]

I'd like to get in on the Darvish race. I know I should be terrified of Japanese players coming across, but Darvish is legitimately the most talented one to come to the States since Hideki Matsui, IMO.

 

The posting fee concerns me. I'd hate to have a Daisuke-type situation where we pay a monster posting fee, a monster contract, and then Darvish disappoints (not necessarily tanks like Daisuke, but isn't the stud he needs to be for that type of money).

 

I'd prefer to focus on Wilson and the lesser-known Japanese arms potentially coming over.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The posting fee concerns me. I'd hate to have a Daisuke-type situation where we pay a monster posting fee, a monster contract, and then Darvish disappoints (not necessarily tanks like Daisuke, but isn't the stud he needs to be for that type of money).

 

I'd prefer to focus on Wilson and the lesser-known Japanese arms potentially coming over.

 

Yes, I know that a great deal of people here want to be as absolutely safe as possible. I think one of my things this offseason will be to show people that each and every single player and person alive carries risk with them, and that you REALLY will need to get over that to be good. Pujols is too old. Will Wilson hold up in his contract? Fielder is fat. CC is over 30 and a pitcher. Darvish is an unknown who'll get paid. David Wright had a down year. Carlos Beltran is in his late 30's and had a knee injury a couple years ago. Matt Kemp is tricking people into thinking he's a long term CF. And on and on...and of course, each of these guys will cost more than we want to pay.

[17 Seconds]

Did you hear Theo's comment on wanting to make sure the big contracts he gives are to players we'll be getting in their prime years (26-32)?

[Magnetic Curses]

Pitching injuries are sporadic, unpredictable, and when it all comes down to it, unpreventable. You can do your due diligence to prevent them by limiting pitch counts and inning limits, etc... but that isn't a guarantee to stop an injury from occurring. Prime example: Stephen Strasburg.

 

It's nice that Wilson's body will hold up because he's in tremendous shape, but it's his arm that's most important, and if history will tell us anything it's that arm injuries can occur regardless of how many steps you take to make sure they don't.

 

Another good example is Jarrod Parker. When I was working for the Bay Bears a couple years ago he was on the team and I'm pretty sure they had him on a pitch count and inning limit. I want to say somewhere between 75-90 pitches and 5 or 6 innings. Pretty standard. Dude was a beast, physically, too. Incredibly fit.

 

Blew his elbow out, got Tommy John.

 

Physical fitness does not guarantee no injuries.

 

i think the biggest factor that goes into pitcher injuries is movement when you are in your motion. look at guys like verlander and lincecum. those guys LOOK herky-jerky, but the movement actually disperses the stress. i know it's just two examples, but wood and prior both have and had very quiet motions and deliveries, seemingly very sound, same with strasburg. i can see injuries continuing to be an issue for him.

[dew1679666265]

Yes, I know that a great deal of people here want to be as absolutely safe as possible. I think one of my things this offseason will be to show people that each and every single player and person alive carries risk with them, and that you REALLY will need to get over that to be good. Pujols is too old. Will Wilson hold up in his contract? Fielder is fat. CC is over 30 and a pitcher. Darvish is an unknown who'll get paid. David Wright had a down year. Carlos Beltran is in his late 30's and had a knee injury a couple years ago. Matt Kemp is tricking people into thinking he's a long term CF. And on and on...and of course, each of these guys will cost more than we want to pay.

 

It's funny you direct this at me after I've been such a huge and vocal supporter of taking the risk to pursue Fielder, Pujols, and Wilson and haven't opposed CC because of his age, but because he'd keep us from taking other risks (Pujols/Prince). I'm all for taking risks, but they need to be calculated risks.

 

If you're going to take a risk on a player who's been on the decline, you shouldn't pay for him as if he isn't. However, if you have the chance to land a historically great player when he may well have 5 years of excellence left, you do it. Risk taking is good, if those risks are well calculated. I don't think Wright at the cost of top prospects is a calculated risk, nor is paying a monster posting fee on top of a monster contract for a question mark Japanese pitcher.