BA's 2011 FSL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Matt Szczur was the only Cub to crack the list at 8. Hak-Ju Lee was #3.

 

8. MATT SZCZUR OF, DAYTONA CUBS

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 195. Drafted: Villanova '10 (5).

A potential mid-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft as a wide receiver, Szczur gave up football when the Cubs gave him a $1.5 million deal in January. Multisport athletes usually need time to develop when they settle on baseball, but he reached high Class A in his first full pro season. After playing football and baseball nearly nonstop for two years, he wore down after reaching Daytona but his upside remained apparent.

 

Szczur has a compact swing and good bat speed. He's strong for his size and has sneaky power, with most of his five FSL homers coming on line drives. He has well above-average speed, and Bailey called him one of the fastest righthanded batters he's seen. Szczur is still learning now to steal bases but his speed already gives him plenty of range in center field. His breaks and routes on flyballs improved, and he earned constant praise for his hustle and work ethic. He has a solid arm.

[BeerHere]

The "Five Years Ago" list is interesting and shows the difficulty in projecting prospects. Elbert at #3, Veal ahead of Cueto and Rasmus, Homer Bailey ahead of Braun, Dewitt ahead of Cueto, Garcia and Jurrjens.....

[javy knows my name]

MOAR SNEAKY POWER!

[sneakypower]

YES my name still maintains its relevance

[toonsterwu]

A bit surprised Szczur made the list, and made the list this high. On talent, he should make it, but I had been under the impression that these lists were impact by the player's run at the level, and Szczur had his struggles in FSL.

 

Not too stunned that only 1 D-Cub made it, but I had thought that Rhee would have an outside shot at top 20. It was a deep year in FSL, though. That said, much as I am ambivalent on Junior Lake right now, I don't see any reason why Wilmer Flores should be ahead of him. He's not significantly younger than someone like Lake (I think 1 year difference), and Flores struggled while also having most people downgrade his potential upside.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Toonster BA never lets some numbers get in the way of liking a prospect they really like.

 

I'm with you on Lake, but I chalk it up to pubs sleeping onthis system. Lake showed some real talent this year and his power/speed combo canbe as good as the Cub s currently have.

[toonsterwu]

Well, the reason I was surprised because off the top, in the past, in league lists (not team or overall), they seemed to have dropped some guys due to inconsistent performance at a level. I think they made a comment like that for Vitters once. Add in his low walk rate at the level, and I was surprised that he ranked so high.

 

I'm quite ambivalent on Lake, but I don't see the argument for Flores over him as of now, other than hanging onto lingering hopes of past promise. I'm not too big on Brody Colvin either, who I think is a bit over-hyped (total side note, but I do feel like BA got it right with Trevor May as the top arm that was at Clearwater this past year ... I still think Cosart is over-hyped).

[BeerHere]

Well, the reason I was surprised because off the top, in the past, in league lists (not team or overall), they seemed to have dropped some guys due to inconsistent performance at a level. I think they made a comment like that for Vitters once. Add in his low walk rate at the level, and I was surprised that he ranked so high.

 

I'm quite ambivalent on Lake, but I don't see the argument for Flores over him as of now, other than hanging onto lingering hopes of past promise. I'm not too big on Brody Colvin either, who I think is a bit over-hyped (total side note, but I do feel like BA got it right with Trevor May as the top arm that was at Clearwater this past year ... I still think Cosart is over-hyped).

 

Flores:

.690OPS

.310OBP

27BB

68K

9HR

516AB

20 years old in A+

 

Lake:

.680OPS

.300OBP

13BB

60K

6HR

242AB

21 years old in AA

 

Look like the same guy to me just one year apart, stats are eerily similar.

[toonsterwu]

This, though, was a league list. Sure, Flores' 1 year advantage is a factor when comparing the two, and Lake was in his 2nd go-around of A+. This, though, was Flores 2nd go-around in A+ as well. The reports on Flores physically aren't positive, and Lake is more athletic.

 

It's not as if I thought Lake should be on the top 20. It's more that I'm surprised Flores is.

[sneakypower]

Flores only has an awful BB rate, whereas Lake has an awful K rate to go with his an unfathomably awful BB rate

[BeerHere]

From the BA chat:

 

Mike (Chicago): any other cubs that were close to making the list?

 

Jim Shonerd: Junior Lake got some support. He has good actions and a strong arm at shortstop along with bat speed and raw power at the plate, but there were questions about how much he'll be able to hit at upper levels. He doesn't control the strike zone at this point and swings and misses too much.

 

 

Dan (Chicago): Obviously it's tough to make any top 20 as a reliever but did you hear anything about Aaron Kurcz? Is he still showing the plus stuff he displayed last year at Boise?

 

Jim Shonerd: Kurcz worked as a starter until June, going 2-2, 3.72 before moving back to the bullpen. He was able to touch 93 mph early in outings but wasn't able to hold that velocity. His changeup looked alright but his curveball did not impress.

[SouthSideRyan]

Flores only has an awful BB rate, whereas Lake has an awful K rate to go with his an unfathomably awful BB rate

 

Lake's BB rate was slightly better at AA than Flores's was at A

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Sucks to read that about Kurcz. I still like the arm more thanmost future pen types.

[toonsterwu]

I'll be curious what others say about Kurcz. The slider was showing real well this year and was his out-pitch. It almost sounds like Shonerd was going off of reports earlier in the year, talking about his velocity not holding (which obviously doesn't matter in the pen, where his velo hit was able to hit mid-90's) and the change-up. I'll have to check, but once he went to the pen, he was, to the best of my understanding and knowledge, fastball breaking ball, with the change only occasionally coming out.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I'll be curious what others say about Kurcz. The slider was showing real well this year and was his out-pitch. It almost sounds like Shonerd was going off of reports earlier in the year, talking about his velocity not holding (which obviously doesn't matter in the pen, where his velo hit was able to hit mid-90's) and the change-up. I'll have to check, but once he went to the pen, he was, to the best of my understanding and knowledge, fastball breaking ball, with the change only occasionally coming out.

 

So long as he's healthy I'm not even a little worried about a bad scouting report. For what he is, a middle relief possible set up type, he's one of the more likeable ones.

[toonsterwu]

Still think Kurcz is the best pen prospect in the system and has closer potential, but no real need to revisit that discussion again.

 

I'm still a bit befuddled at Shonerd's comments in all honesty. Was checking around with some folks that saw D-Cubs games a lot more than me this year, and not many people seemed to think his changeup was as consistently decent as Shonerd made it sound.

 

Put it this way, if Kurcz's changeup is as consistently decent as Shonerd makes it sound, then the Cubs should be keeping him in the rotation. That said, I don't doubt for a moment that Shonerd got a report like that. I just wonder what were the dynamics behind the report (was it a one game report, who was it from, was it on a day when he simply wasn't feeling his breaking pitch). Dunno, one of the more mysterious things I've read about a Cubs prospect so far this offseason.

[Guest]

I'll be curious what others say about Kurcz. The slider was showing real well this year and was his out-pitch. It almost sounds like Shonerd was going off of reports earlier in the year, talking about his velocity not holding (which obviously doesn't matter in the pen, where his velo hit was able to hit mid-90's) and the change-up. I'll have to check, but once he went to the pen, he was, to the best of my understanding and knowledge, fastball breaking ball, with the change only occasionally coming out.

 

Agreed, there's no concern in him holding his velocity in starts if he's a reliever.

[imb]

the outlaw curve change!

[BearClaw]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/10/minor-league-averages-2011-recent-historical-context/

 

 

The MLB stats reflect some Roid withdrawal.

 

The MILB stats are interesting

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I forgot Jae Hoon Ha played for Daytona. BA will rue the day!!

[toonsterwu]

I thought Ha and Rhee had a slim shot at the back end of the top 20 for FSL, but to be fair, it was a really deep league this year. In Ha's case, his bat did tail off tremendously, and plus defense, tools, and age can only take you so far.

 

A lot of non-Cubs fans still talk about Rhee not pitching to his talent. I'm not sure they realize that he posted a 9.4 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9 (roughly, don't have the numbers in front of me) over the last 2 months, while getting (off the top) somewhere around 47-48% ground balls. One poster over at Sickels said he was "almost certainly" a reliever, which I flatly don't get. Rhee might end up a pen arm, but his stuff was more than back this year, he had a good run in the 2nd half while working mostly 6 innings or more. Sure, the slider (slurve) has to improve, but I get the feeling that a lot of people look at fangraphs overall numbers and make a decision off of that (hey, I'm guilty of that at times as well).

[Rob]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/10/minor-league-averages-2011-recent-historical-context/

 

 

The MLB stats reflect some Roid withdrawal.

 

The MILB stats are interesting

 

MLB run environments have a lot more to do with sabermetric-friendly front offices eschewing the moneyball-era trend towards lumbering sluggers and instead finding value in defense-oriented players. "Roid withdrawal" likely has very little to do with yearly variations at this point, as long as it's been since the testing began. I'd imagine most of that effect was felt in the first 1-2 seasons.

 

That said, very interesting link. Thanks.

[mul21]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/10/minor-league-averages-2011-recent-historical-context/

 

 

The MLB stats reflect some Roid withdrawal.

 

The MILB stats are interesting

 

MLB run environments have a lot more to do with sabermetric-friendly front offices eschewing the moneyball-era trend towards lumbering sluggers and instead finding value in defense-oriented players. "Roid withdrawal" likely has very little to do with yearly variations at this point, as long as it's been since the testing began. I'd imagine most of that effect was felt in the first 1-2 seasons.

 

That said, very interesting link. Thanks.

 

Are you saying that player is a less common type of player in MLB in general right now or that they just aren't seeing the field because front offices have decided they'd rather prevent runs than hope they get something out of the lumbering guys at the plate?