Ozzie out on the South Side

[SouthSideRyan]

His sons are reason enough to hate him. He's a raging prick.

[Little Slide Rooter]

White Sox To Acquire Martinez, Marinez For Guillen

By Tim Dierkes [september 27 at 1:36pm CST]

1:36pm: The White Sox will also acquire reliever Jhan Marinez, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Marinez, 23, posted a 3.57 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 6.5 BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9 in 58 Double-A relief innings this year. Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Marinez fourth among Marlins prospects, citing a "combination of great stuff and immaturity." Marinez has a closer repertoire, wrote BA.

 

10:21am: The White Sox are expected to acquire infielder Osvaldo Martinez and a minor league pitcher from the Marlins for manager Ozzie Guillen, tweets MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez. Guillen was released from his contract by the White Sox yesterday, with the Sox retaining compensation rights if he manages another team in 2012.

 

Martinez, a 23-year-old shortstop, hit .245/.296/.322 in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked him fifth among Marlins prospects, saying he profiles as a "solid No. 2 hitter" with a strong arm, good instincts, and soft hands at shortstop. At that time, BA saw a future as a versatile but quality utilityman the worst-case scenario for Martinez.

 

 

Neither of these 2 seem particularly impressive, but giving up your 4&5 prospects for a manager with 1 year on his contract seems a bit excessive.

[Little Slide Rooter]

•There's a good chance Carlos Zambrano joins Ozzie Guillen in Miami, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.

 

If Paul Sullivan said it, it must be true. If the White Sox got the Marlins 4&5 prospects for their head case of a manager, hopefully they'll send us something good for our headcase of a pitcher.

[TruffleShuffle]

apparently you can only trade latin american prospects named martinez for a latin american manager.

[ELCABALLO45]

The fact that the Marlins got something for a manager who they probably were going to fire blows my mind.

[Cubswin11]

•There's a good chance Carlos Zambrano joins Ozzie Guillen in Miami, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.

 

If Paul Sullivan said it, it must be true. If the White Sox got the Marlins 4&5 prospects for their head case of a manager, hopefully they'll send us something good for our headcase of a pitcher.

Minimum of Hanley and Morrison for Z. One of our headcases for two of theirs.

[Clem Fandango]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7028479/chicago-white-sox-gm-kenny-williams-says-was-willing-step-down

 

Somewhat related...

 

CHICAGO -- A day after Ozzie Guillen was let out of his managerial contract, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams said Tuesday he has tried to give up his general manager chair multiple times.

 

Williams was not willing to leave like Guillen did after Monday night's game, but he did say he would take another role in the organization if it would help turn around the club's fortunes.

 

"I offered it because, listen, I'm a big believer in self-analysis and self-assessment," Williams said about his offer to turn over the GM job to somebody else. "I have a perspective that is one of needing, not wanting, needing this organization to be amongst the best in baseball. Another World Championship puts you on the map, in my opinion, as an organization that stands and speaks for something. And that's what I wanted. That's what I still want out of my tenure here."

 

So when did Williams offer to step down and turn the role over to somebody like, perhaps, assistant general manager Rick Hahn?

 

"One year ago, six months ago, four months, three weeks ago, two weeks ago," he said, suggesting it happened up to five times.

 

Williams said he is aware that he also might be the reason there isn't another World Series title on the South Side of Chicago since the club ended an 88-year championship drought in 2005.

 

"If I'm the cog in the machine that is tripping us up, and my decisions are such now that they don't warrant, or my style doesn't warrant more opportunities to get that done, that's fine," Williams said. "I've been sitting in this chair for a long time anyway.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Sure Kenny, why not let someone else drown in Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, and Jake Peavy while you get a promotion.

[Clem Fandango]

To be fair, I don't think anyone saw the Dunn and Peavy moves turning out this catastrophic at the time they were made

[erik316wttn]

•There's a good chance Carlos Zambrano joins Ozzie Guillen in Miami, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.

 

If Paul Sullivan said it, it must be true. If the White Sox got the Marlins 4&5 prospects for their head case of a manager, hopefully they'll send us something good for our headcase of a pitcher.

Minimum of Hanley and Morrison for Z. One of our headcases for two of theirs.

 

I'd do that. Or for Stanton straight up.

[bcl412]

To be fair, I don't think anyone saw the Dunn and Peavy moves turning out this catastrophic at the time they were made

 

I think Peavy could have been predicted and I thought I remember people on our board not wanting him due to arm issues. Could be wrong though. Dunn's collapse seemed more stunning though.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Holy [expletive], I didn't realize Dunn was sporting a 569 OPS for the season.

[UMFan83]

The fact that the Marlins got something for a manager who they probably were going to fire blows my mind.

 

I dont think they were going to fire him. JR would have been content for him to play out his contract next year and then going a different direction. But Ozzie forced his hand when he demanded an extension, which likely was only done because he wanted to go to Florida.

[Guest]

Holy [expletive], I didn't realize Dunn was sporting a 569 OPS for the season.

 

He's going to become only the second player to finish with a higher strikeout total than his batting average (Mark Reynolds did it last year).

[Clem Fandango]

To be fair, I don't think anyone saw the Dunn and Peavy moves turning out this catastrophic at the time they were made

 

I think Peavy could have been predicted and I thought I remember people on our board not wanting him due to arm issues. Could be wrong though. Dunn's collapse seemed more stunning though.

 

Well... the major injury Peavy sustained with the Sox was that his latissimus dorsi muscle completely detached itself from bone... which sounds like the most horrifyingly painful injury in sports history... and also completely unrelated to his elbow or shoulder.

 

Not to mention the other injury he sustained this year was a groin injury, IIRC. In 2009 he had a heel injury. He hasn't had any sort of elbow or shoulder issues since 2008 when he was diagnosed with a sore elbow and hit the DL for that, but he still pitched extremely well before and after he came off the DL then. His arm is probably fine

[radarluv1]

i want BacktoBanks to come up with a package including Quade for Harper.

[Rob]

Holy [expletive], I didn't realize Dunn was sporting a 569 OPS for the season.

 

I just had some fun reading through thread dedicated to him last offseason.

 

On a related note, I don't give imb! nearly enough credit. Each time I reread an old thread, he seems to end up on the right side of it.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think I demanded to be banned if Dunn doesn't outproduce the Cubs' 1B production by the time his contract with the Sox is done.

 

I really, really hope I'm banned for something better than some mope(s) outproducing something like a .750 OPS.

[NCCubFan]

i want BacktoBanks to come up with a package including Quade for Harper.

With a third team involved.

[Rob]

I think I demanded to be banned if Dunn doesn't outproduce the Cubs' 1B production by the time his contract with the Sox is done.

 

I really, really hope I'm banned for something better than some mope(s) outproducing something like a .750 OPS.

 

Let me put it this way; I will guarantee that Dunn outproduces the collective hot mess that the Cubs trot out at 1st base over the next 4 years. If he doesn't then ban me.

 

I hope I end up banned. But I know I won't.

 

Yeah, you may be in trouble. In fairness, TT and I spent a long time warning you.

 

I also made a ban bet that the gap in WAR between our 1B and Dunn wouldn't put us in the playoffs this year. I had forgotten all about that. Oh well, no matter.

[Sammy Sofa]

Man, you didn't warn me about THIS. I want to be banned because the Cubs have someone amazing at 1B, not because their assortment of garbage by default beats out a guy who inexplicably fell off of the Ultimate Cliff of Baseball Doom at age 31.

[TruffleShuffle]

I think I demanded to be banned if Dunn doesn't outproduce the Cubs' 1B production by the time his contract with the Sox is done.

 

I really, really hope I'm banned for something better than some mope(s) outproducing something like a .750 OPS.

 

raging anus can sympathize with making ill-advised nsbb offers in the heat of the moment.

[Rob]

Man, you didn't warn me about THIS.

 

I kinda did.

 

 

 

Adam Dunn simply has a lot of risk factors:

 

- He is at the age where a player would normally start to decline.

- He is a big man, which tends to make players more susceptible to back and leg injuries.

- He already has a very poor contact rate.

- His strikeout rate was the highest of his career in 2010.

- His walk rate was the lowest of his career in 2010.

- His average distance on home runs has declined in 3 straight years, and is the 2nd lowest it's been since hittracker started keeping track in 2005.

- His batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage the last two seasons were boosted by a BABIP 30 points higher than his career average.

 

Even just a BABIP correction could be nasty. Now imagine a drop in bat speed either due to natural causes or an injury. That's downright scary.

[Sammy Sofa]

Man, you didn't warn me about THIS.

 

I kinda did.

 

 

 

Adam Dunn simply has a lot of risk factors:

 

- He is at the age where a player would normally start to decline.

- He is a big man, which tends to make players more susceptible to back and leg injuries.

- He already has a very poor contact rate.

- His strikeout rate was the highest of his career in 2010.

- His walk rate was the lowest of his career in 2010.

- His average distance on home runs has declined in 3 straight years, and is the 2nd lowest it's been since hittracker started keeping track in 2005.

- His batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage the last two seasons were boosted by a BABIP 30 points higher than his career average.

 

Even just a BABIP correction could be nasty. Now imagine a drop in bat speed either due to natural causes or an injury. That's downright scary.

 

Imagining the worst case scenario with anyone is impossible to avoid. Expecting or predicting it was going to happen didn't happen and shouldn't happen. I can safely say that nobody here predicted that this type of season would happen the first year of his new contract (short of a catastrophic injury occurring). If you want to claim that the bold part was referring to something like what actually happened (an .892 OPS player going to .569 at age 31) instead of talking about a steady (and even steep) decline over the course of his contract, well, I simply don't believe you.

 

I mean, I wasn't arguing against the idea of Dunn declining; it happens to everyone and he is technically on the wrong side of 30. I was pissed at the time because the WS had gotten him for only 4 years and I really wanted the Cubs to sign him for 3-4 years if they could. The thinking behind that is that while they'd be likely dealing with decline they likely wouldn't get saddled with a player toppling off of a cliff. Well, turns out I was probably wrong in that assumption (part of me still thinks this might not have occurred if he had stayed in the NL).

 

Of course all of that hinged on me being convinced that Fielder was going to end up in the AL before or during this season (and then be locked up by whoever snagged him) and that Pujols was going to be re-signed by the Cardinals before ST. Right now I'm glad I was wrong on all of that and I really hope I get banned due to being spectacularly wrong.

[Rob]

Imagining the worst case scenario with anyone is impossible to avoid. Expecting or predicting it was going to happen didn't happen and shouldn't happen. I can safely say that nobody here predicted that this type of season would happen the first year of his new contract (short of a catastrophic injury occurring). If you want to claim that the bold part was referring to something like what actually happened (an .892 OPS player going to .569 at age 31) instead of talking about a steady (and even steep) decline over the course of his contract, well, I simply don't believe you.

 

I mean, I wasn't arguing against the idea of Dunn declining; it happens to everyone and he is technically on the wrong side of 30. I was pissed at the time because the WS had gotten him for only 4 years and I really wanted the Cubs to sign him for 3-4 years if they could. The thinking behind that is that while they'd be likely dealing with decline they likely wouldn't get saddled with a player toppling off of a cliff. Well, turns out I was probably wrong in that assumption (part of me still thinks this might not have occurred if he had stayed in the NL).

 

Of course all of that hinged on me being convinced that Fielder was going to end up in the AL before or during this season (and then be locked up by whoever snagged him) and that Pujols was going to be re-signed by the Cardinals before ST. Right now I'm glad I was wrong on all of that and I really hope I get banned due to being spectacularly wrong.

 

I'm not saying I was predicting he'd fall off a cliff immediately upon signing this new contract. Personally, I expected what was actually going to be a pretty steep decline due to BABIP normalization, but that his power would have a nice uptick in his new ballpark and most people wouldn't notice the skills erosion. In other words, I was expecting him to decline but remain at least somewhat useful (if quite overpaid) for at least most of the contract.

 

But I was aware of and cautioning you about the odds that he was far more likely to fall off a cliff than you were willing to admit. Granted, this season is so far above and beyond just falling off a cliff... but still, there were warning signs that he could be less than productive at any given time.