2011 Cubs postmortem

[bukie]

Well, we're coming to the close of another disappointing year of Cubs baseball, so let's use this thread to look back at the year to see what worked and what didn't (more didn't).

 

What didn't work:

1. Replacement starters: Since Wells and Cashner went down the first week of the season, the rotation has been basically a train wreck all year. The Cubs have combined to go 4-27 in games started by Casey Coleman, James Russell, Doug Davis, or Ramon Ortiz, and are 6-7 with Rodrigo Lopez starting. Which means they're 55-51 with their planned rotation.

 

2. Organizational hitting philosophy: The Cubs system stresses aggressive swinging, and the results just aren't paying off. They're 29th in baseball at drawing walks, mostly because their hitters swing at 33% of pitches out of the strike zone (3rd most), and make contact with 64.9% of those pitches (3rd least). Oddly enough, they're near the top of the league at contact within the strike zone, so if they could cut down the swinging at crap, they'd probably be well above average offensively. It's not just any one player, either. It's basically everyone except Kosuke Fukudome (who is gone) and Carlos Pena (who will likely be gone). It's hard to imagine just three years ago, the offense was near the top of the league in walks and total offense.

 

3. Pitching Management: This is mostly on Quade, but there's been too much overuse of the quality arms in the bullpen and rotation, especially after the Cubs have been well out of the race. Dempster threw 131 pitches two days ago, and although he may not be a young arm the Cubs need to protect for 10 years, he's 6th in PAP behind Felix Hernandez, Verlander, Halladay, Lincecum and Jered Weaver. There's no reason for the Cubs coaches to put Dempster in that league of pitcher abuse in a season like this. Marmol was used surprisingly well until the end of June, used on three consecutive days only once (and one of those days was an 11-2 loss). Since July started, he's been used three straight days seven times, and a couple times he was used 5 times in 6 days. Add in unnecessary usage of Marshall, Wood and Samardzija, improper use of Russell, and unnecessarily frequent use of guys like Grabow and Davis, the pitching staff has been an absolute disaster this year overall.

 

4. Lack of a true offensive superstar: Although Aramis Ramirez is likely the best offensive 3B (in a serious down year at 3rd), the Cubs lack a single top 25 offensive player by any all-encompassing metric (OPS, wOBA, WAR, EQA). This would be fine if the entire offense was above average top to bottom, but it hasn't been. The entire outfield has been barely average across the board, with an outlier from Reed Johnson being the only really above average performance.

 

5. Darwin Barney as everyday starter: Yes, his defense is superb (to the point that he should probably play SS if he plays with Castro at 2B), but his hitting was subpar, even in a subpar year. If the Cubs had an outlier offensive superstar at a position or two, they could afford to scrap offense at a position in the name of defense (although preferably at SS, again), but they just don't have that this year.

 

6. Carlos Marmol as closer: It may just be a one-year blip, but Marmol was merely an average reliever this year. The walk rate is increasingly concerning, at 5th in the league this year, and he led the league in blown saves. He's still pretty unhittable with a .201 BAA, but he produced well below his salary this year.

 

What did work:

1. Investing in the draft: The Cubs signed an enormous number of draft picks, including several over slot, thanks to a renewed investment in the draft from the Ricketts. Giving the Cubs the ability to draft high upside guys with signability issues in later rounds is like giving the Cubs extra high-round picks. It may not all pan out in player evaluation and development given what's in place, but it's a step in the right direction for building the system from within.

 

2. The Garza trade: Matt Garza has been the Cubs' lone above average starter (which is why it makes even less sense that Dempster is being abused so much). The record may not look it due to the lack of run support, but he's a top 15 starter in xFIP, and a top 20 starter in WAR, about the same as Tim Lincecum. Considering he's also the youngest regular in the rotation (younger than Wells), the trade has been a huge boost to an otherwise devastated rotation this year and going forward.

 

3. Starlin Castro's hitting: For age 21, his offense has been phenomenal from a contact standpoint. He'll need to develop either more power or more patience to really vault into the elite SS of the league, but to already be at the doorstep at such a young age says a lot about how promising the kid is. The power should develop on its own. The plate discipline is both fortunately and unfortunately largely a product of organizational development, so the chance that an organizational overhaul can improve that aspect of his offense is promising, and most of why I'm rooting for a complete organizational overhaul instead of merely switching up GMs. The defensive regression this year is a concern, but it seems to be a concern of focus rather than ability, so the hope is that team improvement will fix that on its own, too.

 

4. Aramis Ramirez: He gets a lot of undeserved grief for only being there "when it doesn't matter", but he's been easily the best offensive player on the team several years running, and he's the best offensive 3B in the league this year (thanks partly to injuries to the best 3Bs in the league). His offense took a while to get going early on, but he's been on an absolute tear the past 3 months solid, and at this point it wouldn't be a poor investment to take the option for next year.

 

5. Most of the bullpen: Marshall has been fantastic, Wood has been good. Russell is great when used properly (which has been a huge problem this year). Samardzija has developed to the point where he's finally an asset to the team and worth bringing back. That makes four quality arms in the pen this year. Marmol took a step back this year, but he's been phenomenal in the past, and this year could just be a one-year blip. Going forward, then, the Cubs shouldn't have to focus on improving the pen overall (aside from dumping useless arms and replacing them with cheap production).

 

Anyone with other thoughts/opinions/disputes?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Looking at would should have been the 2011 Cubs:

 

RF Fukudome

SS Castro

3B Ramirez

1B Pena

CF Byrd

LF Soriano

C Soto

2B Barney

SP Garza

SP Demp

SP Z

SP Wells

SP Cashner

RP Grabow

RP Russel

RP Shark

RP Stevens/Berg/whatever

RP Wood

RP Marshall

Closer Marmol

IF DeWitt

IF Baker

OF Johnson

OF Colvin

C Hill Castillo

 

On paper, this doesn't look like a bad team. Not a great team, but a .500 team. They didn't count on losing 2 starters, which most teams don't, and were grossly unprepared with a backup plan.

 

Like you said, we really needed another middle of the order bat. Marlon Byrds a very solid 6-7 guy, but he's not a 5 hitter, and certainly never should have been hitting 3rd.

 

Had this team stayed healthy and competitve, they could have been players into the summer and maybe made some moves at the deadline.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

[Tarver]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

 

Yeah, some people keep forgetting how atrocious the defense has been.

 

And this team still would have sucked. Nothing wrong with being positive, but thinking this team is only a couple of pieces away from contention isn't at all realistic.

[Sammy Sofa]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

 

Yeah, some people keep forgetting how atrocious the defense has been.

 

And this team still would have sucked. Nothing wrong with being positive, but thinking this team is only a couple of pieces away from contention isn't at all realistic.

 

Actually, it is. Not "ideally" competitive, but it's certainly realistic they could be competitive next season in a division this weak.

[Little Slide Rooter]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

 

Yeah, some people keep forgetting how atrocious the defense has been.

 

And this team still would have sucked. Nothing wrong with being positive, but thinking this team is only a couple of pieces away from contention isn't at all realistic.

 

Actually, it is. Not "ideally" competitive, but it's certainly realistic they could be competitive next season in a division this weak.

 

There's a big difference between competitve and a favorite to win the divison. I think that if the exact team were trotted out next year and stayed healthy, they would be competive. Probably not the divison favorite, but competitive.This team might have had an entirely different fate had we not had complete trash making up the back end of the rotation for a significant period of time.

 

The term "a couple of pieces" can't be used in a catch all sense. If those pieces were CJ Wilson and Prince Fielder, coupled with the re signing of Ramirez, this team would be very competitive. However, if those pieces were James Loney, Wilson Betemit, and Edwin Jackson, well, whether or not The Astros move to the AL or not would be the deciding factor on whether we finish last or not.

[Tarver]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

 

Yeah, some people keep forgetting how atrocious the defense has been.

 

And this team still would have sucked. Nothing wrong with being positive, but thinking this team is only a couple of pieces away from contention isn't at all realistic.

 

Actually, it is. Not "ideally" competitive, but it's certainly realistic they could be competitive next season in a division this weak.

 

Even assuming they grab Fielder, Wilson, and re-sign Ramirez, (which is assuming a hell of a lot) that does nothing to address the defense or mediocre OF production. That team would also need to stay completely healthy as the farm isn't likely to provide us much help in the short term. Too many ifs.

[Little Slide Rooter]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

 

Yeah, some people keep forgetting how atrocious the defense has been.

 

And this team still would have sucked. Nothing wrong with being positive, but thinking this team is only a couple of pieces away from contention isn't at all realistic.

 

Actually, it is. Not "ideally" competitive, but it's certainly realistic they could be competitive next season in a division this weak.

 

Even assuming they grab Fielder, Wilson, and re-sign Ramirez, (which is assuming a hell of a lot) that does nothing to address the defense or mediocre OF production. That team would also need to stay completely healthy as the farm isn't likely to provide us much help in the short term. Too many ifs.

 

It isnt realistc to think that they'll go from where they are now to the top of any division. Again, the key for next year should be to get back to .500 and go from there the following year. Between 2006 and 2008 there was 2007. That's likely next years BCS. The difference is there is better competition then there was then.

[davearm2]

Even assuming they grab Fielder, Wilson, and re-sign Ramirez, (which is assuming a hell of a lot) that does nothing to address the defense or mediocre OF production. That team would also need to stay completely healthy as the farm isn't likely to provide us much help in the short term. Too many ifs.

It actually makes the defense worse.

[Guest]

I'm not so sure that the pitchers don't bear a great deal of the responsibility for the awful DER this year. They're 24th in LD%, 25th in GB%, and 6th in Ks.

[Soul]

The one year we emphasized patient hitting we won 97 games and everyone was happy as heck until the playoffs...

 

What exactly is the problem with this whole "swing at everything" deal?

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm not so sure that the pitchers don't bear a great deal of the responsibility for the awful DER this year. They're 24th in LD%, 25th in GB%, and 6th in Ks.

 

aren't fly balls more likely to turn into outs than ground balls? i always though that was a big part of the reason that guys like aaron hill and carlos pena and chris young always have bad BABIPs.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not so sure that the pitchers don't bear a great deal of the responsibility for the awful DER this year. They're 24th in LD%, 25th in GB%, and 6th in Ks.

 

aren't fly balls more likely to turn into outs than ground balls? i always though that was a big part of the reason that guys like aaron hill and carlos pena and chris young always have bad BABIPs.

 

I assumed he meant lowest LD%, highest GB%

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm not so sure that the pitchers don't bear a great deal of the responsibility for the awful DER this year. They're 24th in LD%, 25th in GB%, and 6th in Ks.

 

aren't fly balls more likely to turn into outs than ground balls? i always though that was a big part of the reason that guys like aaron hill and carlos pena and chris young always have bad BABIPs.

 

I assumed he meant lowest LD%, highest GB%

 

the cubs are tied for the 6th lowest GB% in baseball and are 7th highest in FB%. they've been line drive and fly ball heavy relative to the rest of the league.

 

(and garza isn't even part of the reason; he's been much more ground ball-heavy than he was in tampa, which is a good thing)

[Sammy Sofa]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

 

Yeah, some people keep forgetting how atrocious the defense has been.

 

And this team still would have sucked. Nothing wrong with being positive, but thinking this team is only a couple of pieces away from contention isn't at all realistic.

 

Actually, it is. Not "ideally" competitive, but it's certainly realistic they could be competitive next season in a division this weak.

 

Even assuming they grab Fielder, Wilson, and re-sign Ramirez, (which is assuming a hell of a lot) that does nothing to address the defense or mediocre OF production. That team would also need to stay completely healthy as the farm isn't likely to provide us much help in the short term. Too many ifs.

 

Yeah, might as well give up already.

[Tarver]

That's the same defense that is dead last in team defensive efficiency right now. I think that's a big problem.

 

Yeah, some people keep forgetting how atrocious the defense has been.

 

And this team still would have sucked. Nothing wrong with being positive, but thinking this team is only a couple of pieces away from contention isn't at all realistic.

 

Actually, it is. Not "ideally" competitive, but it's certainly realistic they could be competitive next season in a division this weak.

 

Even assuming they grab Fielder, Wilson, and re-sign Ramirez, (which is assuming a hell of a lot) that does nothing to address the defense or mediocre OF production. That team would also need to stay completely healthy as the farm isn't likely to provide us much help in the short term. Too many ifs.

 

Yeah, might as well give up already.

 

Yeah, I'm advocating them punting the season.

 

Should we address the ticket price situation again? Like I told you in April, they better not expect fools like me to pay thousands of dollars to watch the [expletive] I did this year. I don't care how many [expletive] times the Red Sox are in town.

[Sammy Sofa]

Should we address the ticket price situation again? Like I told you in April, they better not expect fools like me to pay thousands of dollars to watch the [expletive] I did this year. I don't care how many [expletive] times the Red Sox are in town.

 

They're dropping the prices bleacher seats. Likely not going to drop the other prices any time soon (if ever) until the expanded revenue from renovations/triangle building and related plans/TV network/expanded advertising comes in.

 

And yes, there's plenty of "if's" for next season, hence why people are saying they COULD be contenders and not that they're a lock to do so. It's the same for them not contending, too.

[Tarver]

Should we address the ticket price situation again? Like I told you in April, they better not expect fools like me to pay thousands of dollars to watch the [expletive] I did this year. I don't care how many [expletive] times the Red Sox are in town.

 

They're dropping the prices bleacher seats. Likely not going to drop the other prices any time soon (if ever) until the expanded revenue from renovations/triangle building and related plans/TV network/expanded advertising comes in.

 

And yes, there's plenty of "if's" for next season, hence why people are saying they COULD be contenders and not that they're a lock to do so. It's the same for them not contending, too.

 

As long as I don't have to pay $200 to watch stiffs like Pena and Lopez have their asses handed to them by the Sox next year I'll be happy.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, I haven't been to a game since opening day of 2010 and I live about 15 minutes away from Wrigley. Can't really say the motivation is there (though working two jobs for much of that time hasn't helped, either).

[SouthSideRyan]

So don't go Tarver, [expletive].

[Tarver]

So don't go Tarver, [expletive].

 

Well I'm not giving the [expletive] Cardinals my money.

 

We get Fielder and some decent pitching this offseason I'll be more than happy to overpay.

[SouthSideRyan]

So don't go Tarver, [expletive].

 

Well I'm not giving the [expletive] Cardinals my money.

 

We get Fielder and some decent pitching this offseason I'll be more than happy to overpay.

 

But...

 

Even assuming they grab Fielder, Wilson, and re-sign Ramirez, (which is assuming a hell of a lot) that does nothing to address the defense or mediocre OF production. That team would also need to stay completely healthy as the farm isn't likely to provide us much help in the short term. Too many ifs.

[Tarver]

So don't go Tarver, [expletive].

 

Well I'm not giving the [expletive] Cardinals my money.

 

We get Fielder and some decent pitching this offseason I'll be more than happy to overpay.

 

But...

 

Even assuming they grab Fielder, Wilson, and re-sign Ramirez, (which is assuming a hell of a lot) that does nothing to address the defense or mediocre OF production. That team would also need to stay completely healthy as the farm isn't likely to provide us much help in the short term. Too many ifs.

 

But at least we'd have some premier entertainment. Castro going 2-3 with 2 singles just doesn't inspire to swipe my Amex.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

2. Organizational hitting philosophy: The Cubs system stresses aggressive swinging, and the results just aren't paying off. They're 29th in baseball at drawing walks, mostly because their hitters swing at 33% of pitches out of the strike zone (3rd most), and make contact with 64.9% of those pitches (3rd least). Oddly enough, they're near the top of the league at contact within the strike zone, so if they could cut down the swinging at crap, they'd probably be well above average offensively. It's not just any one player, either. It's basically everyone except Kosuke Fukudome (who is gone) and Carlos Pena (who will likely be gone). It's hard to imagine just three years ago, the offense was near the top of the league in walks and total offense.

 

I know I'm being obvious, but this is where someone who takes walks, hits with power, and has a crap ton of talent could help us out. I actually really, really like the Cubs' hitting philosophy overall, so long as they have guys who can pull it off. Right now, most of the guys on this team do not have the talent. Soriano is too broken, old, and easy to strike out, Barney doesn't offer any power to go with no OBP (though I guess he has the general idea down), Pena is another K-piler, and even Kosuke could be overpowered when he was here. 2010 and and 2009 (given some BABIP luck) Soto, Aramis Ramirez as he is and has been as a Cub, and Castro (with more walks) are the kind of hitters I think that exemplify what the Cubs want to do (basically keep the K rate relatively low and the K:BB close to 1).

 

This is why Fielder/Pujols is so key. Obviously they're just elite players so no [expletive] the Cubs should want them, but it's what makes them elite (strong contact rates, high BBs, lots of power) that is appealing. The fact that these are sluggers who can hit for average and don't swing and miss foolishly is huge, and THAT is what I think is the main idea behind what the Cubs look for. Personally, I think it's closer to the philosophy of top offenses like the Rangers, Yankees, and Red Sox than anyone will give them credit for right now because our offense is just nowhere near as good as theirs right now.

 

So basically, my issue isn't philosophy to hitting with this franchise so much as it is the execution. If I had to pick a moment they went off track it'd be the very desperate signing of Alfonso Soriano, a mostly inefficient player (never could hit a breaking ball, never much of a defender...both despite athleticism that would make you think otherwise) who got away with it because of a power/speed combo, a career year, and I'd guess his playoff background (he would have had the winning RBIs in '01 if the Yankees won). He didn't even age efficiently as he was lying about his age early on in his career. I hope they do a better job of picking who to pay big money to going forward.

 

I really buy that a whole lot of this offenses problems could be fixed by adding a true superstar bat.

[Guest]

Nice OP, bukie.