Re: Darvish

[Guest]

Meh, I'm with others I think there are wiser areas to spend the money. Is Steve Wilson still our Asian scout? or was that some sort of bizarre dream I had?

 

Yeah, Wilson is the Cubs' Pac Rim scout.

 

I'll repeat myself - I think the Cubs will go after Taiwanese-born NPB lefty Wei-Yin Chen who is a true free agent (no posting). Steve Wilson was heavily scouting him in 2009 when there were rumblings he had an opt-out clause to leave Japan for the U.S. (he didn't have one then but he does for this offseason).

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Meh, I'm with others I think there are wiser areas to spend the money. Is Steve Wilson still our Asian scout? or was that some sort of bizarre dream I had?

 

Yeah, Wilson is the Cubs' Pac Rim scout.

 

I'll repeat myself - I think the Cubs will go after Taiwanese-born NPB lefty Wei-Yin Chen who is a true free agent (no posting). Steve Wilson was heavily scouting him in 2009 when there were rumblings he had an opt-out clause to leave Japan for the U.S. (he didn't have one then but he does for this offseason).

 

There's actually a decent amount of video on this guy, and it's interesting. He really likes that fastball of his (can hit 93 maybe 94), and he cuts it and such too. He makes two talented LH SP FAs who use a blue glove. Not a bad target at all...repeats his athletic motion consistently too...looks like he used to throw a slow curveball but has since tightened it up into a slider he can bury in on righties...good mound presence for sure...from the maybe 10-15 minutes I just watched.

[Elrhino]

There's a lot of buzz around the Rangers being the front runners. Their new owernship group has deep pockets and just inked a huge television contract. They like the idea of the posting process, because they haven't had much luck enticing pitchers to play for them in that stadium even when they put the best offer on the table. Josh Daniels and Nolan Ryan have invested a ton of money in Pacific Rim scouting. Josh Daniels flew to Japan to scout him in person. Rangers feel like they have a good environment for him to adapt in, because they have two other Japanese players in the lockerroom in Uehara and Tateyama. Tateyama was a former teammate of his in Japan. Colby Lewis always speaks Japanese after his time there. Red Sox and Yankees will be major players for sure, but they both might be a little more gun shy on Japanese pitchers after Daisuke and Igawa. Edited October 14, 2011 by Elrhino

[Clem Fandango]

There was also the report that if CC opts out and becomes a free agent, the Rangers are planning on tossing an assload of money at him. The Rangers are obviously targeting pitching this offseason

[Elrhino]

I think they're just making contingency plans if/when CJ Wilson gets a contract offer for a bazillion dollars in free agency. I used to think it was a no brainer that Wilson was going to resign in Texas, but now I'm thinking otherwise. I don't think they want to pay him among the Top 5 pitchers in baseball. They'll go hard after C.C. knowing he'll probably resign with the Yanks in the end. Plan B might be sign Darvis, bring up Martin Perez and maybe give Feliz another shot at the rotation to give themselves a lot of pitching options. Then spend that CJ money on someone like Prince Fielder to replace Michael Young at 1B. Fielder would put up insane numbers in that ballpark with that short right field porch. Edited October 14, 2011 by Elrhino

[Guest]

Meh, I'm with others I think there are wiser areas to spend the money. Is Steve Wilson still our Asian scout? or was that some sort of bizarre dream I had?

 

Yeah, Wilson is the Cubs' Pac Rim scout.

 

I'll repeat myself - I think the Cubs will go after Taiwanese-born NPB lefty Wei-Yin Chen who is a true free agent (no posting). Steve Wilson was heavily scouting him in 2009 when there were rumblings he had an opt-out clause to leave Japan for the U.S. (he didn't have one then but he does for this offseason).

 

There's actually a decent amount of video on this guy, and it's interesting. He really likes that fastball of his (can hit 93 maybe 94), and he cuts it and such too. He makes two talented LH SP FAs who use a blue glove. Not a bad target at all...repeats his athletic motion consistently too...looks like he used to throw a slow curveball but has since tightened it up into a slider he can bury in on righties...good mound presence for sure...from the maybe 10-15 minutes I just watched.

 

Tops out at 96 and has a plus slider. And he's only 26.

[Clem Fandango]

There was also the report that if CC opts out and becomes a free agent, the Rangers are planning on tossing an assload of money at him. The Rangers are obviously targeting pitching this offseason

 

Apparently that wasn't true...

 

Rangers sources told CBS Sports' Danny Knobler that there's "no way" the club will make a large free agent offer this winter to left-hander CC Sabathia.

Sabathia is expected to opt out of his contract with the Yankees this offseason, and a report from ESPN New York earlier this week stated that the Rangers were prepared to "throw a boatload of money at him." But people inside the Texas front office are now denying that supposed plan. Perhaps the report was a setup by Sabathia's agent.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Talking to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (Twitter link), an unnamed agent believes Darvish's posting fee will reach $50MM, and the right-hander will then sign a five-year, $75MM contract with the winning team.

 

Ick. That's essentially a 5/125 deal.

[SouthSideRyan]

Talking to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (Twitter link), an unnamed agent believes Darvish's posting fee will reach $50MM, and the right-hander will then sign a five-year, $75MM contract with the winning team.

 

Ick. That's essentially a 5/125 deal.

 

Would the unnamed agent happen to be Darvish's agent? He won't sniff even 20M/Y after what happened with DiceK

[Little Slide Rooter]

Talking to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (Twitter link), an unnamed agent believes Darvish's posting fee will reach $50MM, and the right-hander will then sign a five-year, $75MM contract with the winning team.

 

Ick. That's essentially a 5/125 deal.

 

Would the unnamed agent happen to be Darvish's agent? He won't sniff even 20M/Y after what happened with DiceK

 

When you have pitching desperate teams with lots of money on their hands, it could happen.

[Guest]

No, it won't. There is a zero percent chance any team lays out 25 million AAV for him.

[Vinestal]

Playoff game he pitched in last night is online, at least thats what someone said it was.

 

http://www.justin.tv/asdfg585/b/298631204?

 

cant verify as I dont read japanese

[Guest]

I don't think his fee/contract will get anywhere close to that high.

 

That said, I'm not certain at all where I'd draw the line for being interested in him over other options.

[Vinestal]

He seems to get a lot of ground balls which is nice and he has a nice breaking ball. Kilometers per hour isn't really helping me determine velocity, but from how they talk about it I figure its upper 90s.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Not sure what to guess on his posting fee, but for the contract I'm thinking anywhere from 4/42-5/80 and everything in between. I don't think he'll get 100 million. If he's any good he'll have endorsements out the wazoo anyway or sumtin.

[Guest]

Playoff game he pitched in last night is online, at least thats what someone said it was.

 

http://www.justin.tv/asdfg585/b/298631204?

 

cant verify as I dont read japanese

 

That was Darvish:

 

Ben Badler[/url]"]Darvish made his first playoff start today, and you can watch a replay of his entire start. Darvish allowed one run on four hits in seven innings, struck out seven and didn't issue a walk, though the Fighters' bullpen couldn't hold the lead and Seibu came back to win 5-2. According to the televised feed, Darvish's fastball worked around 92-96 mph, though he leaned heavily on his offspeed stuff.

[Vinestal]

Playoff game he pitched in last night is online, at least thats what someone said it was.

 

http://www.justin.tv/asdfg585/b/298631204?

 

cant verify as I dont read japanese

 

That was Darvish:

 

Ben Badler[/url]"]Darvish made his first playoff start today, and you can watch a replay of his entire start. Darvish allowed one run on four hits in seven innings, struck out seven and didn't issue a walk, though the Fighters' bullpen couldn't hold the lead and Seibu came back to win 5-2. According to the televised feed, Darvish's fastball worked around 92-96 mph, though he leaned heavily on his offspeed stuff.

 

I watched the whole start. He got some calls he wouldn't have gotten here. Most of the off speed stuff were sliders but he threw what looked like a curve a few times and it was very good big 12-6 break. Sliders had good movement as well.

[Scotti]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yu-darvish-tearing-japan-pacific-league-bringing-big-time-arm-major-leagues-article-1.972701

 

http://yudarvish.com/

 

(scroll 2/3 for career stats)

 

I wouldn't shy away from a higher than Dice-K deal. As Free Agent pitchers go, Dice-K was a very good sign--he just got hurt and that is the risk with FA pitchers (better to sign sluggers and develop pitchers).

 

It doesn't make sense to include the posting fee in what you are paying a guy. We pay Garza X not X plus Lee, Guyer and Archer. Those guys are just what it took to get him. Same with Boston and what they gave up to SD to get Adrian Gonzalez--he's paid $154 million over seven AND they gave up a haul to get him but no one ever includes that in the $154 million. If Darvish signs for 75 for five years then you are paying him $15 M per and the posting fee is the cost to "trade" for him.

 

With Theo talking about paying guys for future and not past performance, a Darvish splash would make more sense that one of the 1B. The guy is 25 and won't turn 26 until next August 16th. He is probably one of the two greatest Japanese players ever (Ichiro being the other). Adrian Gonzalez will be 37 when his current contract expires. If Darvish signs for 5 years he'd just have turned 31 when that contract expires. Yes, Gonzalez has a more concrete track record, but he is also getting paid a lot more than Darvish would get paid and that track record is past performance.

 

In terms of the posting fee (i.e. "think of what prospects you could get for $50 million"), the Cubs just spent $20M this year and none of those kids is likely to be a Darvish. They will be fortunate to get 2-3 solid MLB players out of that haul (maybe 20-30% of first-round picks have good MLB careers). Darvish is Mark Prior. Prior, like Dice-K, got injured but he was the real deal and money well spent. Had he been a FA he would have commanded a HUGE contract. Darvish will cost someone a huge posting fee and he'll get paid.

 

One thing that I would strongly consider is pitching him every 6th day. Have five other starters but it doesn't really have to be a true 6-man rotation. Four guys (say Garza, Dempster, Wells and Samardzija) on a five-day rotation and a sixth guy but just when you need the sixth guy to keep the other guys on a five (and not four) day rotation or Darvish on a six (and not five) day rotation. I actually think that a six-man rotation would be good for the whole staff (pitchers could go deeper into games with, theoretically, fewer injuries). Pay the cost of six good pitchers upfront and, in theory, you will be less likely to pay sunk injury costs on the back end).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It doesn't make sense to include the posting fee in what you are paying a guy. We pay Garza X not X plus Lee, Guyer and Archer. Those guys are just what it took to get him. Same with Boston and what they gave up to SD to get Adrian Gonzalez--he's paid $154 million over seven AND they gave up a haul to get him but no one ever includes that in the $154 million. If Darvish signs for 75 for five years then you are paying him $15 M per and the posting fee is the cost to "trade" for him.

 

This is incorrect. The cost to acquire is very much included in the cost of the player before you buy him. It's just that after you acquire him, it's a sunk cost so there's no point in bringing it up again.

[Guest]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yu-darvish-tearing-japan-pacific-league-bringing-big-time-arm-major-leagues-article-1.972701

 

http://yudarvish.com/

 

(scroll 2/3 for career stats)

 

I wouldn't shy away from a higher than Dice-K deal. As Free Agent pitchers go, Dice-K was a very good sign--he just got hurt and that is the risk with FA pitchers (better to sign sluggers and develop pitchers).

 

It doesn't make sense to include the posting fee in what you are paying a guy. We pay Garza X not X plus Lee, Guyer and Archer. Those guys are just what it took to get him. Same with Boston and what they gave up to SD to get Adrian Gonzalez--he's paid $154 million over seven AND they gave up a haul to get him but no one ever includes that in the $154 million. If Darvish signs for 75 for five years then you are paying him $15 M per and the posting fee is the cost to "trade" for him.

 

With Theo talking about paying guys for future and not past performance, a Darvish splash would make more sense that one of the 1B. The guy is 25 and won't turn 26 until next August 16th. He is probably one of the two greatest Japanese players ever (Ichiro being the other). Adrian Gonzalez will be 37 when his current contract expires. If Darvish signs for 5 years he'd just have turned 31 when that contract expires. Yes, Gonzalez has a more concrete track record, but he is also getting paid a lot more than Darvish would get paid and that track record is past performance.

 

In terms of the posting fee (i.e. "think of what prospects you could get for $50 million"), the Cubs just spent $20M this year and none of those kids is likely to be a Darvish. They will be fortunate to get 2-3 solid MLB players out of that haul (maybe 20-30% of first-round picks have good MLB careers). Darvish is Mark Prior. Prior, like Dice-K, got injured but he was the real deal and money well spent. Had he been a FA he would have commanded a HUGE contract. Darvish will cost someone a huge posting fee and he'll get paid.

 

One thing that I would strongly consider is pitching him every 6th day. Have five other starters but it doesn't really have to be a true 6-man rotation. Four guys (say Garza, Dempster, Wells and Samardzija) on a five-day rotation and a sixth guy but just when you need the sixth guy to keep the other guys on a five (and not four) day rotation or Darvish on a six (and not five) day rotation. I actually think that a six-man rotation would be good for the whole staff (pitchers could go deeper into games with, theoretically, fewer injuries). Pay the cost of six good pitchers upfront and, in theory, you will be less likely to pay sunk injury costs on the back end).

Scotti,

 

I have to disagree on a few points here. First, before you have the player in house, acquisition cost absolutely matters. Aramis and Wright are fairly equivalent players right now. If you could sign Aramis to a one year $15M deal, it would be much better than spending prospect resources to trade for Wright. To put this in business terms, you have to compare the total cost of ownership when comparing the acquisition of any assets.

 

Your comparison of Gonzalez to Darvish is a difficult one to make. While true that you don't want to pay for past performance, it is much easier to forecast future performance with Gonzalez due to his MLB track record. The decreased certainty in the forecast for Darvish lowers his value. Add in the additional uncertainty involved with any pitcher's future and it decreases relative value even further.

 

Now, I absolutely hope the Cubs get involved in the bidding for Darvish. I hope they don't spend as much on the posting fee as Boston did for Daisuke, though.

 

btw - I also don't like the idea of a six man rotation, but I'd have to see a lot more data on how much the additional recovery time would help prevent injuries.

[Scotti]

It doesn't make sense to include the posting fee in what you are paying a guy. We pay Garza X not X plus Lee, Guyer and Archer. Those guys are just what it took to get him. Same with Boston and what they gave up to SD to get Adrian Gonzalez--he's paid $154 million over seven AND they gave up a haul to get him but no one ever includes that in the $154 million. If Darvish signs for 75 for five years then you are paying him $15 M per and the posting fee is the cost to "trade" for him.

 

This is incorrect. The cost to acquire is very much included in the cost of the player before you buy him. It's just that after you acquire him, it's a sunk cost so there's no point in bringing it up again.

 

My original point wasn't that you don't count the cost before you get a player but that you don't factor it in afterwards (i.e. "paying") as some appeared to do (i.e. "25 million a year"). Darvish would not be making $25 M per year because he doesn't get paid his posting fee just as Garza doesn't get paid Hak-Ju Lee, Guyer and Archer. As I said, and as with any player, a posting fee, players traded, draft pick or any compensation is a sunk cost. That doesn't mean that there is no point in bringing it up, however. A player's contract is just as sunk as a posting fee is sunk. The point is, though, that they are different and distinct and should not be muddled together just because a guy posts vs. getting traded.

[Scotti]

Scotti, I have to disagree on a few points here. First, before you have the player in house, acquisition cost absolutely matters. Aramis and Wright are fairly equivalent players right now. If you could sign Aramis to a one year $15M deal, it would be much better than spending prospect resources to trade for Wright. To put this in business terms, you have to compare the total cost of ownership when comparing the acquisition of any assets.

 

I must not have type this out clearly since both you and Kyle took what I wrote to mean something different. My bad. Obviously there is the cost to acquire any player and there is the cost to pay any player. However, with posting fees, it seems all too easy to lump them together. They are both two separate costs and, unless you do the same with players like Garza and Gonzalez (and few, if any, really do) it simply doesn't make sense to lump the two costs together as this gives you an over-inflated cost for those posted (Dear Grandmama's socks! Dice-K is $17M a year!) and an under-inflated cost for those received via trade (Cool, Adrian Gonzalez only cost $22 million per year). Neither of those is true. Both have their acquisition cost and both get paid--they are separate and distinct.

 

Your comparison of Gonzalez to Darvish is a difficult one to make. While true that you don't want to pay for past performance, it is much easier to forecast future performance with Gonzalez due to his MLB track record. The decreased certainty in the forecast for Darvish lowers his value. Add in the additional uncertainty involved with any pitcher's future and it decreases relative value even further.

 

In terms of relative value, yes. That is why I believe that, in general, you should develop pitchers and buy hitters when possible. Other folks disagree and believe that pitchers are always of less value than hitters (i.e. you don't buy a top pitcher because they are too pricey compared to risk and you don't draft a top pitcher because they are too pricey compared to risk). Obviously a cat with that philosophy only lucks into good pitching and good pitching wins ballgames.

 

That said, I only made the AG comparison (if you can call it a comparison) because of the trade of a top youngish player vs. posting (I also brought up Garza). If CC Sabathia had been traded for Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes, I would have made that comparison. For where the Cubs are today, while Sabathia is an excellent pitcher, I would rather sink what it takes to get Darvish than to have given Sabathia his last two nutty contracts while giving up Rizzo, Kelly and Fuentes.

 

The comparison that I actually DID make was Prior. Remember, while not being a free agent but still having more leverage, Jeff Samardzija was paid what Prior was. If Prior was posted, there would have been tons of interest at legitimate top free agent prices given Prior's scouted talent and age (future production). Yet we know so much more about Darvish than we did about Prior. Darvish has faced professional hitters with wood bats for years and dominated. Darvish has faced MLB hitters. Darvish has pitched in the Olympics (at 21) and the World Baseball Classic (at 22). He's been scouted and he's thrived under the pressure of being a superstar player (that cannot be discounted).

 

Now, I absolutely hope the Cubs get involved in the bidding for Darvish. I hope they don't spend as much on the posting fee as Boston did for Daisuke, though.

 

Obviously I hope they get him at a low price but I don't consider Matsuzaka a mistake. He won 15 games, was 4th in ROY and they won the World Series his first season. His second season he was 4th in Cy Young (18-3, 2.90 with the best H/9 in MLB). In his third season he was hurt in the WBC. Injuries happen.

 

While his posting fee of $51,111,111.11 (I would have gone with 12 cents) seems huge, the Sox did not have to part with any of their top prospects to get him like they did with Adrian Gonzalez (Rizzo, Kelly and Fuentes) and Josh Beckett (Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez). Had they traded for a player of Matsuzaka's status they would have had to give up a package of really good players (SD's haul for AG were the Red Sox #1, #3 and #6 prospects per BA). Their top six prospects in '07 were Jacoby Ellsbury (ROY in '08), Clay Buchholz (6th in CYA in '10), Michael Bowden (3 years BA top 100), Daniel Bard (career 2.88 ERA in nearly 200 IP), Lars Anderson (3 years BA top 100) and Dustin Pedroia (ROY in '07, MVP in '08, 3 AS games, 2 GG).

 

The Sox also didn't have to give up any picks as compensation to get Matsuzaka (as they would have with a regular FA). Here are some of their recent top/first-round draft picks: Pedroia ('04), Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden ('05), Bard ('06), Kelly ('08) and Fuentes ('09). So, giving up comp picks in any of those years would have complicated things in the future to say the least!

 

There is plenty to disagree with in terms of Theo signings but Daisuke Matsuzaka just isn't one of them, IMO. He was a good sign at a good price for a big market team.

 

btw - I also don't like the idea of a six man rotation, but I'd have to see a lot more data on how much the additional recovery time would help prevent injuries.

 

Unfortunately you can't get to that data until several teams trot out a six-man rotation. We do know that Japanese pitchers (who pitch less often than our five-man rotations because of their schedule) can pitch late into games and have very heavy side sessions with remarkably little damage, but anecdotally, get injured more frequently here in five-man rotations. We also know that college aces (who pitch once a week) can regularly carry heavy pitch counts without much, if any, damage (at ages where injury should be prevalent because of growth plates.

 

Again, if you're always paying someone to sit on the DL, lose seasons/careers (Prior), effectiveness (Zambrano) and roles (Kerry Wood) to injury, you should attempt whatever you can to ameliorate that. Certainly you don't hurt a pitcher by giving him more rest. And if the guy can go deeper into games (removing the worry of your 10th best pitcher losing a game in the 6th inning) and/or miss time on the DL (extending the value of the contract) then money is actually saved by investing it in preemptive care early in the process.

 

I fully admit that all to be theory at this point but this is the time to work that stuff out instead of a year when you are actually expecting to win with all of the associated pressure to cut corners.

[davell]

Scotti, I know I agree completely that we should develop pitching and buy hitters, if it comes down to it.

[Guest]

When the acquisition cost and the contract cost are both the same finite resource, it's only logical to lump them together. The posting fee isn't going to fall from the sky any more than the contract won't count against the payroll.

[jersey cubs fan]

Scotti, I know I agree completely that we should develop pitching and buy hitters, if it comes down to it.

 

Oh yeah baby, the MacPhail/Hendry plan. Worked like a charm last time.