2011 Run Differential

[CubmanPi]

I was looking at the standings today and some of these points really stuck out:

 

- Bos, NYY, Phi, TX combine for +530, and no other team is above +52

- Cubs are .5 behind the Royals in overall record, yet their run differential is 52 runs worse

- The entire AL Central is in the red

- The Padres are 12 games behind the Giants, yet trail in run differential by only 1 run

- Related to previous: Giants are 11 games over .500 with a -7 RD

- Detroit is 12 over with a -6 RD

- Min and Oak have identical records, but are separated by 94 runs

 

Is it common to see such variance? This seems a little ridiculous to the untrained (my) eye.

[Little Slide Rooter]

There are 3 divisions: The NL Central, NL West, and AL Central that are just downright bad. I suppose that could have something to do with it. maybe not.

[third eye]

I was looking at the standings today and some of these points really stuck out:

 

- Bos, NYY, Phi, TX combine for +530, and no other team is above +52

- Cubs are .5 behind the Royals in overall record, yet their run differential is 52 runs worse

- The entire AL Central is in the red

- The Padres are 12 games behind the Giants, yet trail in run differential by only 1 run

- Related to previous: Giants are 11 games over .500 with a -7 RD

- Detroit is 12 over with a -6 RD

- Min and Oak have identical records, but are separated by 94 runs

 

Is it common to see such variance? This seems a little ridiculous to the untrained (my) eye.

 

The difference between San Francisco and San Diego is an interesting one. Both teams have great pitching staffs with crappy offenses, though the Padres enjoy the less crappy offense. ERA and WHIP are comparable between the two, though San Francisco has benefitted from much better defense behind the staff. Baseball Reference shows a pretty large difference between the situational pitching of the two staffs though. Yes, San Francisco's pen has been well utilized in high-leverage situations, but there is a huge disparity in WPA/leverage innings. Can someone with a better understanding of win probability for pitchers shed some light on why this might be?

[Derwood]

Padres have a +5 Run Diff. and are 60-71

 

Tigers have a +6 Run Diff. and are 71-59

[NonProfitCow]

Padres have a +5 Run Diff. and are 60-71

 

Tigers have a +6 Run Diff. and are 71-59

I think the Padres scored like 10% of their total runs in 3 games against the Pirates.

[Guest]

The whole NL West is pretty crazy.

 

Actual records:

Ari 73-59

SF 70-62

Col 63-69

LAD 61-69

SD 60-72

 

Yet the Giants at -17 have the worst run differential in the division.

 

Pythag W-L

Ari 68-64

SD 66-66

Col 65-67

LAD 64-66

SF 64-68

 

I'm sure it's out there somewhere but I'd be interested to know what the slimmest difference in the Pythag W-L (or run differential) is in the final standings in ML history.

[NewUserName]

The whole NL West is pretty crazy.

 

Actual records:

Ari 73-59

SF 70-62

Col 63-69

LAD 61-69

SD 60-72

 

Yet the Giants at -17 have the worst run differential in the division.

 

Pythag W-L

Ari 68-64

SD 66-66

Col 65-67

LAD 64-66

SF 64-68

 

I'm sure it's out there somewhere but I'd be interested to know what the slimmest difference in the Pythag W-L (or run differential) is in the final standings in ML history.

 

I know I should probably look this up myself, but is there a correlation between good pitching teams having better records then their Pythag numbers show? It would seem that the lower the scores allowed/scored would create more randomness.

[SouthSideRyan]

Btw, why is Arizona [expletive] good?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Btw, why is Arizona [expletive] good?

 

I just flashed back to October 2007.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Btw, why is Arizona [expletive] good?

 

Future Cub Justin Upton:

 

http://www.keeperleaguegm.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/justin-upton.jpg

[mul21]

Btw, why is Arizona [expletive] good?

 

Grit, toughness, and leadership shown to the players by old, tough, gritty white coaches.

[TruffleShuffle]

Btw, why is Arizona [expletive] good?

 

uzr has them as the best defense in baseball. their pitching has been a lot better than expected, which probably owes a lot to their defense.