08/03 CUBS (Garza) @ Pittsburgh (Morton) 6:05 CDT, CSN+ TV

[Guancous]

Brenly says "oh, man, how does this guy still have a job?" (talking about home plate ump)

 

Well, Bob, it's impossible to fire a member of the umpire's union.

 

There's a fascinating HBO movie waiting to be made about the hubris of the last MLB umpire strike.

[JonJayCutler]

I knew Castro had some power but eight rows deep in the deepest part of PNC is impressive for any hitter. It would be nice if he could get the HR total up to 7 or 8 by season's end and continue to work his way toward being that 15-20 HR a year guy that most people think he can be.

[Guest]

LOL

 

"Well we might as well put pitch trax away for the night with Bob Davidson behind the plate"

 

Hah. Brenly just doesn't give a damn. Awesome.

 

Just saw the highlights of Colvin and Quade getting ejected and Brenly was ripping Davidson there also.

 

As for the Cubs ... four straight wins? It's unpossible.

[Old Style]

OH MY GOD, 4 WINS IN A ROW. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!

You said 14 straight, right? We're almost there!!!!

[Fred Hornkohl]

Break up the CUBS !!

[apete6]

I knew Castro had some power but eight rows deep in the deepest part of PNC is impressive for any hitter. It would be nice if he could get the HR total up to 7 or 8 by season's end and continue to work his way toward being that 15-20 HR a year guy that most people think he can be.

 

Completely agree. If he can get his SLG up over .450 this year and closer to .500 in the future, you're talking about a perennial all-star and MVP candidate.

[CubmanPi]

Castro hitting for power makes me feel funny in my pants.

[sneakypower]

I knew Castro had some power but eight rows deep in the deepest part of PNC is impressive for any hitter. It would be nice if he could get the HR total up to 7 or 8 by season's end and continue to work his way toward being that 15-20 HR a year guy that most people think he can be.

 

Completely agree. If he can get his SLG up over .450 this year and closer to .500 in the future, you're talking about a perennial all-star and MVP candidate.

he'd also need to drastically improve his defense to warrant mentioning as an MVP candidate

[apete6]

I knew Castro had some power but eight rows deep in the deepest part of PNC is impressive for any hitter. It would be nice if he could get the HR total up to 7 or 8 by season's end and continue to work his way toward being that 15-20 HR a year guy that most people think he can be.

 

Completely agree. If he can get his SLG up over .450 this year and closer to .500 in the future, you're talking about a perennial all-star and MVP candidate.

he'd also need to drastically improve his defense to warrant mentioning as an MVP candidate

 

Maybe, but if you have a SS OPSing .900 on a winning Cubs team, he'll get consideration.

[sneakypower]

he's got a .767 OPS now with a lofty .350 babip

 

even assuming he could keep his huge 2Bs and 3Bs totals the same as they are now, if on top of that he tripled his HR rate and doubled his walk rate and still hit .330, he'd be hovering around .880

 

i can't even dream of any possible scenario where he'll ever reach .900

Edited August 4, 2011 by sneakypower

[SouthSideRyan]

he's got a .767 OPS now with a .350 babip

 

even assuming he could keep his huge 2Bs and 3Bs totals the same as they are now, if he tripled his HR rate and doubled his walk rate and still hit .330, he'd be hovering around .880

 

i can't even dream of any possible scenario where he'll ever reach .900

 

He's 21.

 

I'd be more surprised if he never OPSes .900 than if he does.

[sneakypower]

please then tell me how you expect that's going to happen

[SouthSideRyan]

Improved patience and improved power stroke, it's not rocket surgery

[UMFan83]

I dunno, 900 seems a little high but wouldn't be floored if he developed into a player like that.

 

I am trying to think of a comparable rise for a player who came in really young, showed great hitting skills but not a ton of power for his first couple of seasons and then developed into a .550 SLG kind of player.

 

I think a better comp is still a more consistent, slightly better Renteria. From age 25-30 he was a .303/.360/.434/.795 hitter. Castro isn't far from that now, so we might instead see something like .300/.360/.500 as his peak. That's .860. It's not unreasonable to see him have a career year or two where he brushes with .900 if he can develop into a player who averages an .860 OPS during the later part of his 20's/early 30's

[apete6]

Improved patience and improved power stroke, it's not rocket surgery

 

More the patience than the power. If he can get to a .400 OBP, he'll get there once or twice.

 

For reference, Derek Jeter OPSd over .900 twice in his career and also had a .896, .871, .864 and .858. Now, his OBP was much higher than Castro has shown, but Castro is on pace for more extra base hits this year than Jeter had in any of his first 3 years until his ridiculous 1999 (.989 OPS from SS!!).

[JonJayCutler]

Yeah he's going to have to learn how to walk before we even talk about MVP. Developing more power and just overall improvement should increase his chances for walks. He's obviously going to have to get his OBP very close to .400 if he's ever going to OPS .900.

[SouthSideRyan]

Also important to note, if this is the new run environment going forward, a .900 OPS is really freakin good. 9 guy in the NL have a .900 or better OPS right now. All but 2 are playing Corner OF or 1B. (Kemp and Victorino being the others)

[sneakypower]

don't you think that hurts your argument?

[SouthSideRyan]

don't you think that hurts your argument?

 

It was a sidenote, not a supporting point.

[sneakypower]

i realize that, but you're shining more light on how it's incredibly unlikely for Castro to do that

 

the (15) players with an OPS between .875 and .925 collectively average BB% of 10.18%, ISOs of .214 and BABIPs of .325

 

Castro's at 4.1% , .120, and .350, respectively; he's got a ton of progressing to do, and i'd love for it to happen - just doesn't seem like a safe bet

[SouthSideRyan]

Of those 15, the guys who were in the majors at 21 are:

 

Peralta: who was terrible over a half season, had one great season before this year.

 

Beltran: who had a cup of coffee with similar numbers to Castro when adjusting for the sillyball era, and didn't become CARLOS BELTRAN until his age 24 season

 

Reyes: Who was terrible in a half season following a half season at age 20 that was slightly better than Castro's. Is having his best season by far at age 28.

 

McCann: Who was slightly worse than Castro, followed by a huge year at 22, back to his age 21 levels at 23, before settling in as an all-star at 24.

 

Ortiz: Who was similar in a cup of coffee, improved in the next year's half season, missed time to injury, bounced around the same #s until he found the needle in Boston at age 27.

 

Upton: Took a big leap in his age 21 season after debuting at 19. Regressed some at 22, busted out bigger this year at 23.

 

 

Upton's the only one who was clearly ahead of Castro's career arc at the time, with a few of these guys having similar slash lines with a little in my-head run environment adjustment (i.e. low walks, middling power)

 

Eyeballing those 15, how many do you think would be projected for a better career arc than Castro through their age 21 seasons (strictly hitting)? Upton, Tex, Gordon, and Helton is all I'm seeing off the top of my head.

[sneakypower]

Reyes is the most analogous example amongst those guys, and his previous best season was .841 and he's still liable to finish the year much closer to that mark than .900

[Guest]

It's not going to be his norm, but is it really completely crazy that Castro could peak at .320/.380/.520 one year?

[Little Slide Rooter]

It's not going to be his norm, but is it really completely crazy that Castro could peak at .320/.380/.520 one year?

 

Maybe if they keep him at leadoff

 

1. 101AB: .376/.411/.535/.946

2. 176 AB .335/.359/.449/.808

3. 183 AB .224/.251/.322/.573