Its awfully quiet ...

[TruffleShuffle]

What FA options at 3B will be out there after the 2012 season? If it looks pretty desolate I'd rather try and sign him for something like 2 years /$20 million total.

 

i can't imagine that would work. he's guaranteed $2m if the cubs buy him out, so that would be the equivalent of signing a 2 year, $18 million free agent deal after a buyout. that would be a terrible deal for him coming off what seems to be a strong year where he's outproducing the average 3B pretty badly.

[Sammy Sofa]

What FA options at 3B will be out there after the 2012 season? If it looks pretty desolate I'd rather try and sign him for something like 2 years /$20 million total.

 

i can't imagine that would work. he's guaranteed $2m if the cubs buy him out, so that would be the equivalent of signing a 2 year, $18 million free agent deal after a buyout. that would be a terrible deal for him coming off what seems to be a strong year where he's outproducing the average 3B pretty badly.

 

Then up it if necessary. I'm just spitballing. If he's the obvious best option for the next 2 seasons then pay him for another 2-3 years.

[dew1679666265]

What FA options at 3B will be out there after the 2012 season? If it looks pretty desolate I'd rather try and sign him for something like 2 years /$20 million total.

 

Wilson Betemit KC

Casey Blake LAD *

Eric Chavez NYY

Mark DeRosa SF

Greg Dobbs PHI

Edwin Encarnacion TOR *

Wes Helms FLA

Melvin Mora ARI

Aramis Ramirez CHC

Miguel Tejada SF

Omar Vizquel CWS

 

If we end up trading Aramis, I think the pretty clear best option for third next year would be a Flaherty/Baker platoon. That's a pretty horrid FA class. Chavez might be worth a really cheap, one year flier for the slim chance he might return to his glory days.

[TruffleShuffle]

those are the free agents after this season.

[dew1679666265]

those are the free agents after this season.

 

Oops, misread his post.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, I already knew the 3B choices after this year were horrible.

[TruffleShuffle]

found this, not sure if it's 100 percent accurate:

 

Third basemen

Geoff Blum (39)

Miguel Cairo (39)

Brandon Inge (36) - $6MM club option with a $500K buyout

Maicer Izturis (32)

Chipper Jones (41) - $7MM vesting/club option

Kevin Kouzmanoff (31)

Placido Polanco (37) - $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Mark Reynolds (29) - $11MM club option with a $500K buyout

Scott Rolen (38)

Mark Teahen (31)

Ty Wigginton (35) - $4MM club option with a $500K buyout

David Wright (30) - $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Kevin Youkilis (34) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout

 

top three are garbage, so is kouzmanoff, jones will almost certainly be retired, polanco may stay in philly for that price and if not, he'll be lousy and not worth it. reynolds comes with atrocious defense and a bucketload of K's, rolen will be an old man, teahen really isn't even a 3B, wigginton really is a utility guy.

 

that leaves:

izturis - kind of a polanco-ish cheap stopgap who can hit for contact and provide pretty good fielding. not an impact player and better suited in a utility role.

wright - suspect he won't be on the option plan at that point - probably signed to a long term contract, either by the mets or traded and then signed by someone else.

youkilis - almost certain to have that option picked up

[dew1679666265]

Reynolds would actually really intrigue me. Not a great option by any means, but he has the ability to slug a pretty decent amount, which might offset some of those many Ks.

 

Other than the obvious choices of Wright and Youkilis (who I agree will both be off the market by then), I think Reynolds is the best choice.

[Bote McBoteface]

The best option would just be to keep Aramis for another 2-3 years, I'd think.

[TruffleShuffle]

Reynolds would actually really intrigue me. Not a great option by any means, but he has the ability to slug a pretty decent amount, which might offset some of those many Ks.

 

Other than the obvious choices of Wright and Youkilis (who I agree will both be off the market by then), I think Reynolds is the best choice.

 

i'm much more concerned about his horrific defense than i am about the strikeouts. fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR because he's cost the o's about 19 runs on defense so far. i guess it depends on how much faith you put into those metrics, but the reviews of his defense have always been negative, so you sign him knowing that some of that run production is going to be negated by his lousy work in the field.

[gocubs2118]

The best option would just be to keep Aramis for another 2-3 years, I'd think.

 

I don't think so. This is the first year in a long time that Ramirez has been able to stay off the DL, he's still injury prone and getting older. He's also a pretty bad fielder and that's not going to improve. I'd rather upgrade elsewhere with that money we would save on him and see if a Baker and Flaherty platoon will stick or something like that. 3B has been so awful this year and in recent year that may not be too terrible.

[Bote McBoteface]

Oh. I....see your point.

 

I'd still like to keep him for mancrush reasons, though.

[questionmarkgrace]

The best option would just be to keep Aramis for another 2-3 years, I'd think.

 

I don't think so. This is the first year in a long time that Ramirez has been able to stay off the DL, he's still injury prone and getting older. He's also a pretty bad fielder and that's not going to improve. I'd rather upgrade elsewhere with that money we would save on him and see if a Baker and Flaherty platoon will stick or something like that. 3B has been so awful this year and in recent year that may not be too terrible.

 

I was really hating on Aramis earlier this year but would be fine with picking up his option at this point if he really doesn't want to get traded. If not we will almost certainly be going with Flarhety Baker platoon and hopefully that could be productive. But if what has been said about him waiving his no trade clause at the waiver deadline is true then we should most certainly go through with it. He is at the height of his value in terms of play but also because of the lack of quality third base man available. He offers the best opportunity to get back some really good prospects.

[questionmarkgrace]

At some point I'd have to wonder if the lack of activity is due to Rickets restricting Hendry because he's not going to be the one at the helm next season.

 

if this is the case then he should have gotten rid of Hendry last year. that would really make no sense to let him be the gm this year and then tie his hands when effectively screwing yourself for next year. While I'm not a big fan of Ricketts and I dont think he is a very savy team owner, I doubt that he would be so short sighted.

 

I really think that it comes down to the fact that the guys we want to trade no one really wants because they havent been playing well, carry enormous contracts, and perceived baggage.

 

What "enormous contracts?" Why do some people talk about this team like it's riddled with Soriano-esque contracts, yet only Soriano has a Soriano-esque contract?

 

no one is paying fukudome even half of his salary to pick him up. Soriano is virtually unmovable and zambrano has been bad this year and is getting 18 million this year and next year. These are some mighty overpaid individuals. I would love to see some one take these guys but really who wants to pay this much for mediocre play?

[davell]

Pitching is either going to get us back into being a contender or not, if you ask me. If we don't add a front of the rotation pitcher this offseason, even if we added Fielder or Pujols AND kept Aramis, I wouldn't like our chances personally. Yeah, we'd be contenders for the weak ass division and yeah, anything can happen in the playoffs, but I wouldn't be thinking we're truly a serious contender, unless something weird happened. Is it worth a shot though? Yeah, of course it is. Get there and hope for the best basically........Even if you think we're overmatched by Philly and the Braves, anything can and often does, in short series.

 

My point is this, I guess: Trade Aramis now(if he'll let us) IF it brings us back something VERY useful. A young player who'll contribute next year at a cheap salary or a top 100ish type prospect. If we can't get that for him, decline his option, offer him arb, and see how the 1B bonanza plays out. We get one of those guys, go ahead and re-sign Aramis and hope a bigtime pitcher comes available at the deadline. If we miss out on 1B, then let Aramis walk and take whatever comp pick we can get(assuming he gets us one)

[Sammy Sofa]

At some point I'd have to wonder if the lack of activity is due to Rickets restricting Hendry because he's not going to be the one at the helm next season.

 

if this is the case then he should have gotten rid of Hendry last year. that would really make no sense to let him be the gm this year and then tie his hands when effectively screwing yourself for next year. While I'm not a big fan of Ricketts and I dont think he is a very savy team owner, I doubt that he would be so short sighted.

 

I really think that it comes down to the fact that the guys we want to trade no one really wants because they havent been playing well, carry enormous contracts, and perceived baggage.

 

What "enormous contracts?" Why do some people talk about this team like it's riddled with Soriano-esque contracts, yet only Soriano has a Soriano-esque contract?

 

no one is paying fukudome even half of his salary to pick him up. Soriano is virtually unmovable and zambrano has been bad this year and is getting 18 million this year and next year. These are some mighty overpaid individuals. I would love to see some one take these guys but really who wants to pay this much for mediocre play?

 

Trading Zambrano creates a hole in the lineup that they likely can't fill next year and he hasn't been that overpaid in the grand scheme of things. Fukudome is gone after this year regardless so who gives a [expletive] if nobody wants to trade for him (and he wasn't all that overpaid for most of his contract)? So that leaves us, again, with Soriano as having the only "enormous contract" and even that isn't that big a deal anymore with all the money coming off the books after this year and the next (coupled with it not being likely that they could match or exceed his production via significantly cheaper FA next season).

[SouthSideRyan]

Pitching is either going to get us back into being a contender or not, if you ask me. If we don't add a front of the rotation pitcher this offseason, even if we added Fielder or Pujols AND kept Aramis, I wouldn't like our chances personally. Yeah, we'd be contenders for the weak ass division and yeah, anything can happen in the playoffs, but I wouldn't be thinking we're truly a serious contender, unless something weird happened. Is it worth a shot though? Yeah, of course it is. Get there and hope for the best basically........Even if you think we're overmatched by Philly and the Braves, anything can and often does, in short series.

 

My point is this, I guess: Trade Aramis now(if he'll let us) IF it brings us back something VERY useful. A young player who'll contribute next year at a cheap salary or a top 100ish type prospect. If we can't get that for him, decline his option, offer him arb, and see how the 1B bonanza plays out. We get one of those guys, go ahead and re-sign Aramis and hope a bigtime pitcher comes available at the deadline. If we miss out on 1B, then let Aramis walk and take whatever comp pick we can get(assuming he gets us one)

 

I don't see how you qualify a top 100ish type prospect as VERY useful.

 

And your plan if we miss out on Fielder and Pujols is to just try and be as terrible as possible?

[davell]

Pitching is either going to get us back into being a contender or not, if you ask me. If we don't add a front of the rotation pitcher this offseason, even if we added Fielder or Pujols AND kept Aramis, I wouldn't like our chances personally. Yeah, we'd be contenders for the weak ass division and yeah, anything can happen in the playoffs, but I wouldn't be thinking we're truly a serious contender, unless something weird happened. Is it worth a shot though? Yeah, of course it is. Get there and hope for the best basically........Even if you think we're overmatched by Philly and the Braves, anything can and often does, in short series.

 

My point is this, I guess: Trade Aramis now(if he'll let us) IF it brings us back something VERY useful. A young player who'll contribute next year at a cheap salary or a top 100ish type prospect. If we can't get that for him, decline his option, offer him arb, and see how the 1B bonanza plays out. We get one of those guys, go ahead and re-sign Aramis and hope a bigtime pitcher comes available at the deadline. If we miss out on 1B, then let Aramis walk and take whatever comp pick we can get(assuming he gets us one)

 

I don't see how you qualify a top 100ish type prospect as VERY useful.

 

And your plan if we miss out on Fielder and Pujols is to just try and be as terrible as possible?

 

To me, a top 100ish type guy is very useful because he can conceivably be a big help to the major league team, or he's damn good currency to use as part of a major trade that nets us something else over the offseason.

 

As for being terrible, if we miss out on the 1B, yeah, we probably will be, in all likelihood. So, why waste more money on Aramis that could just as easily be spent on a stop gap AND towards the minors? I'm sorry, but I don't think fans are going to care all that much if we win 73 games with Aramis or 65 without him, in the grand scheme of things. The only reason to keep him, in my opinion under this scenario, would be if we truly are scared attendance is going to take a massive dive. Aramis wouldn't be the sole reason attendance would drop obviously, but combined with high as hell ticket prices, losing out on the 1B derby, having a horrible 2011 and other factors too, I at least can see why we should worry about this.

[Sammy Sofa]

As for being terrible, if we miss out on the 1B, yeah, we probably will be, in all likelihood. So, why waste more money on Aramis that could just as easily be spent on a stop gap AND towards the minors?

 

Because they have $60 million dollars coming off the books. I'm not saying Aramis saves the season, but man, it's not like they'll be hurting for money, especially if they miss out on Prince and Pujols.

[Guest]

We're talking about tens of millions of dollars here, the only way that could truly be rolled into the farm is to try and get another affiliate in the Sally League or something. That money doesn't cease to be useful to the MLB team just because the top FA's don't sign with you. Remember how Ramirez and Lee became Cubs in the first place.

[questionmarkgrace]

At some point I'd have to wonder if the lack of activity is due to Rickets restricting Hendry because he's not going to be the one at the helm next season.

 

if this is the case then he should have gotten rid of Hendry last year. that would really make no sense to let him be the gm this year and then tie his hands when effectively screwing yourself for next year. While I'm not a big fan of Ricketts and I dont think he is a very savy team owner, I doubt that he would be so short sighted.

 

I really think that it comes down to the fact that the guys we want to trade no one really wants because they havent been playing well, carry enormous contracts, and perceived baggage.

 

What "enormous contracts?" Why do some people talk about this team like it's riddled with Soriano-esque contracts, yet only Soriano has a Soriano-esque contract?

 

no one is paying fukudome even half of his salary to pick him up. Soriano is virtually unmovable and zambrano has been bad this year and is getting 18 million this year and next year. These are some mighty overpaid individuals. I would love to see some one take these guys but really who wants to pay this much for mediocre play?

 

Trading Zambrano creates a hole in the lineup that they likely can't fill next year and he hasn't been that overpaid in the grand scheme of things. Fukudome is gone after this year regardless so who gives a [expletive] if nobody wants to trade for him (and he wasn't all that overpaid for most of his contract)? So that leaves us, again, with Soriano as having the only "enormous contract" and even that isn't that big a deal anymore with all the money coming off the books after this year and the next (coupled with it not being likely that they could match or exceed his production via significantly cheaper FA next season).

 

My point was that those are the guys that the cubs would like to trade and that no one is interested because there contracts are big and they have been playing like crap.

 

Z may have played well the first few years of his contract but so did soriano. it doesnt make it any less difficult to move him now. And with the way Z has played this year it would be better to move him then keep him. Z made 18 mil last year was valued at half of that. This year he is valued around one third of his contract. So given his play he has been overpaid about 20million between last year and this year. What do you think next year will be like? yes fukudome comes off the books this year but its still a guy they want to move that no one else really wants. I'm sure they would like to at least get a crumb for him because he wont garner a draft pick. He made 14million last year and fangraphs had him valued at 5.2 million and he has been much worse this year especially on defense so yeah I would say he's at least been grossly overpaid these last two years. (fangraphs had him valued at zero but I have to believe thats an error)

 

this article pretty much says the same thing about Z and soriano I have been saying. However he thinks that fukudome may be tradable albiet for very little in return. However in the time since this article was written Fukudome has been on a pretty bad slump .233/.300/.274/.574 which may be enough to scare teams off

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-cubs-are-selling-but-will-anybody-buy/

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, who cares if they can't trade Fukudome? The most important thing is that his money is freed up after this season. If they get anything for him it's cake. And if the Cubs want to trade Zambrano they're idiots. Zambrano is still a valuable starting pitcher and they're unlikely to be able to replace him in the rotation, so trading him would just leave another huge hole to fill when they already have big questions about Cashner and Wells as starters going in to next year. Same thing with moving Soriano. Sure, it would be nice if they can unload him, but ultimately it's not essential at this point and he still provides value to the team so it's not like they need to get rid of him because he's blocking anyone in the farm or there's a FA they need to make room for. They don't NEED to trade any of these guys, and moving Zambrano and Soriano just to move them would do more harm than good.

[TruffleShuffle]

zambrano i can agree with, but not soriano. fangraphs has him worth 1 win per year over the last 2.5 years. baseball-reference has him worth a little less than that. you can pick up a corner OF out of the bargain bin and get something better than that for a couple mil a year. if you can get someone to take $18m a year for 3 years on a player who will probably be pushing replacement level, you have to do it. even if you run out and grab someone like josh willingham, you're likely to get better production for a cheaper price and can spend the savings on relief pitching or bench help or overpaying pujols or whatever.

[questionmarkgrace]

zambrano i can agree with, but not soriano. fangraphs has him worth 1 win per year over the last 2.5 years. baseball-reference has him worth a little less than that. you can pick up a corner OF out of the bargain bin and get something better than that for a couple mil a year. if you can get someone to take $18m a year for 3 years on a player who will probably be pushing replacement level, you have to do it. even if you run out and grab someone like josh willingham, you're likely to get better production for a cheaper price and can spend the savings on relief pitching or bench help or overpaying pujols or whatever.

 

 

at league average Zambrano has value but its really minimized by that contract. Like I said he has been overpaid roughly 20 million over the last year and this year if he keeps it up. That said I dont disagree with their interest to move him and replace him with another league average pitcher that would be much cheaper.

[Sammy Sofa]

zambrano i can agree with, but not soriano. fangraphs has him worth 1 win per year over the last 2.5 years. baseball-reference has him worth a little less than that. you can pick up a corner OF out of the bargain bin and get something better than that for a couple mil a year. if you can get someone to take $18m a year for 3 years on a player who will probably be pushing replacement level, you have to do it. even if you run out and grab someone like josh willingham, you're likely to get better production for a cheaper price and can spend the savings on relief pitching or bench help or overpaying pujols or whatever.

 

I left out the obvious part that I figured I didn't have to go over it yet again because it's such common sense and it's been covered a zillion times: yes, if we lived in a fantasy world where a team was willing to take Soriano and his paycheck the Cubs should do it...but we live in the real world where any trade for Soriano would involve the Cubs almost certainly paying for at least half of his salary. So you either have Soriano (again, not blocking anyone in the system and not depriving the Cubs of a spot for an impact FA signing) for $18 million or, say, Willingham for all intents and purposes at least for $14 million (and Christ, he's awful this year, and he'd be 33 himself if the Cubs picked him up for next year), because there's almost no way the Cubs are pawning off Soriano without paying something like $9-12 million dollars a year for the rest of his contract.

 

It's just not realistic. With or without Soriano, the Cubs are almost certainly paying WAY too much for their LF production for the next 3 seasons.