Pirates

Hairyducked Idiot · July 17, 2011

The cool story about the Pirates is that they've been lucky enough to be within striking distance if they can get lucky enough the rest of the way. Nothing more than that, though.

Derwood · July 17, 2011

I'm at the Clippers vs Indians AAA game, and half the Pirates "prospects" have a bunch of ML service time

SouthSideRyan · July 17, 2011

I'm at the Clippers vs Indians AAA game, and half the Pirates "prospects" have a bunch of ML service time

It's AAA.

Jake · July 18, 2011

Because their offense right now is McCutchen, Walker, and an island of misfit toys. That could improve with trades/FA and Alvarez getting better, but it's a far cry from the Reds having Phillips, Bruce, Votto, and Stubbs to build around or the Rays having Crawford, Longoria, Zobrist, and Upton, or the Brewers having Fielder, Braun, Weeks, and Hart. On the pitching side, they simply aren't set up for long term success without an infusion of talent. Maholm, Karstens, Correia, Morton, they've done an admirable job this year, but not one of them can be counted on to approach this season's production going forward, based on both their history as players and their middling peripherals. They are dead last in the NL by a sizable margin in strikeouts, at near the bottom in K/BB. It's not to say that it can't happen, Huntington appears to be a bright guy, and this year's success and attendance could embolden ownership to raise the payroll. But they're several pieces from being a repeated playoff contender as it stands right now.

First, you have to understand why Karstens & Maholm are doing well this year: The defense. Walker '11 >>>> Walker '10 & Iwamura. Cedeno '11 significantly better than Cedeno '10. Tabata '11 > Milledge '10. And, I could go on. The impending outfield of, Left to Right, Tabata, Cutch & Presley is going to lower your BABIP significantly. As is the defense. Yes, we're still weak @ 3B, but you get the idea.

To that, I'll add this quote:

• "I had a question earlier that I thought was phenomenal," he said. "Who's better between the Giants, the Rays and the Phillies [pitching staffs]?" • Pence, the Houston Astros right fielder, replied with what has become a common response for players from teams in the National League Central. • "You know what? There's another team that you're forgetting that has an unbelievable pitching staff, that people haven't given enough credit to, and that's the Pittsburgh Pirates," he said. "Those guys can pitch. [Joel] Hanrahan? Closing it out? It's over. If we get to the ninth and Hanrahan comes in, it's over. He's good."

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11198/1160705-63.stm#ixzz1SPTJb46q

As for the offense, yes, Cutch & Walker are the real deal, but you're leaving out Alex Presley. He's been doing it for 2 years now, no reason to think he'll stop. His OPS right now is over .900.

Finally, let me add that they're not just beating up on pushover teams. They took 2 of three from the Red Sox and from the Philles. Other teams too. They still can't beat the Brewers, so there's a ways to go.

A month ago, I wouldn't have argued the point - I was waiting for them to fall back to earth. But, they didn't. I've stopped waiting. Let's see what happens over the next two weeks - that will tell if my optimism is warranted.

Going forward? There's reasonable talent in the minors. Look up Starling Marte. There was some great pitching @ AA Altoona last year, although all of those guys flaked out this year. Let's see what happens to them going forward. Danial McCutcheon, Moskos, Watson and Crotta have all made contributions during their rookie seasons. Brad Lincoln did well in his one start. In case of injury, He'll be fine in the rotation. d'Arnaud & Mercer are going to push Cedeno for SS. Gorkys Hernandez is doing some good stuff in Indy in CF. Matt Hague is putting up some good numbers at 1B.

Are we a Championship caliber team right now? No. Probably not a division winner yet. There's still a lot of work to do. And the biggest part of that work is to get Pedro Alvarez on track. If we do (and there's reason to believe), a lineup of Presley, Tabata, Cutch, Pedro, Walker 1-5 is going to be tough to face - there's a good potential mix of speed and power. If we can get that slugging first baseman we covet, bat him third, Cutch second and Tabata sixth. Oh, to dream....

So, no, I don't see us going the way of the '03 Royals. I see the start of something good here. Attendance is up this year @ PNC park. I'm not the only one who sees it! (OK, that doesn't count - winning will do that.)

July 18, 2011

First, you have to understand why Karstens & Maholm are doing well this year: The defense. Walker '11 >>>> Walker '10 & Iwamura. Cedeno '11 significantly better than Cedeno '10. Tabata '11 > Milledge '10. And, I could go on. The impending outfield of, Left to Right, Tabata, Cutch & Presley is going to lower your BABIP significantly. As is the defense. Yes, we're still weak @ 3B, but you get the idea.

I'm sorry Jake, but unless the defense is being allowed to play with 12 on the field, there isn't anything sustainable about the pitching. It's not that Karstens, Maholm, etc. regress to being horrible pitchers, but they aren't guys who belong at the top of a playoff rotation. They have a guy or two that could be at the top of the playoff rotation down the road, but Taillon and Allie are so far away that the makeup of the whole team will be different by the time they hit MLB, never mind when they hit their stride.

As for the offense, yes, Cutch & Walker are the real deal, but you're leaving out Alex Presley. He's been doing it for 2 years now, no reason to think he'll stop. His OPS right now is over .900.

Maybe Presley will keep that up, maybe he made some adjustment last year that's made him into a legit MLB OF, I'm sure Vance would be thrilled. But he's already 26 next week, and even in an optimistic scenario he's not as valuable to the Pirates with McCutchen taking away his positional scarcity. And McCutchen needs lots of help, and Presley hitting .280/.350/.450 in LF or something isn't going to be a cure-all for the offensive vacuums at all the IF positions save Walker.

The Pirates have the inverse of the problems the Cubs have in many ways. Their offense has a star to build around, but is seriously lacking in supporting guys. Those guys aren't terribly difficult, or even terribly expensive to find, but then you run the risk of weakening the defense that's required for the pitching staff to have any success. And they need half a lineup's worth of them.

As for the pitching, the Pirates need that star power, there's really no way around it. You can come rub it in my face if I'm wrong, but they can't consistently win without striking anyone out and playing BABIP games forever and ever. It can happen, as this year's performance proves, but it can't really happen with 4-5 guys season after season. They've also had remarkable health from the pitching staff, which odds are will hurt them(if only slightly) down the road.

TruffleShuffle · July 18, 2011

agreed on the pirates needing to find more starters who can miss more bats. and they also need pedro alvarez to turn into the guy everyone thought he'd turn into, a middle of the lineup masher.

NonProfitCow · July 18, 2011

First, you have to understand why Karstens & Maholm are doing well this year: The defense. Walker '11 >>>> Walker '10 & Iwamura. Cedeno '11 significantly better than Cedeno '10. Tabata '11 > Milledge '10. And, I could go on. The impending outfield of, Left to Right, Tabata, Cutch & Presley is going to lower your BABIP significantly. As is the defense. Yes, we're still weak @ 3B, but you get the idea.

Does the defense just give up for, let's say, Kevin Correia? His ERA and ERA+ are both lower than league average this year. He has the 2nd best K/BB on the team. He has the lowest LD% among Pirates starters. He has the best IFFB% on the team. His GB% and HR/FB% is better than Karstens. Yet somehow his BABIP is 50 points higher than Karstens. How do you explain McDonald's .313 BABIP and Morton's .318 BABIP? They have the same defense out there as Maholm and Karstens.

TruffleShuffle · July 18, 2011

First, you have to understand why Karstens & Maholm are doing well this year: The defense. Walker '11 >>>> Walker '10 & Iwamura. Cedeno '11 significantly better than Cedeno '10. Tabata '11 > Milledge '10. And, I could go on. The impending outfield of, Left to Right, Tabata, Cutch & Presley is going to lower your BABIP significantly. As is the defense. Yes, we're still weak @ 3B, but you get the idea.
Does the defense just give up for, let's say, Kevin Correia? His ERA and ERA+ are both lower than league average this year. He has the 2nd best K/BB on the team. He has the lowest LD% among Pirates starters. He has the best IFFB% on the team. His GB% and HR/FB% is better than Karstens. Yet somehow his BABIP is 50 points higher than Karstens. How do you explain McDonald's .313 BABIP and Morton's .318 BABIP? They have the same defense out there as Maholm and Karstens.

morton's LD% is high and he's an extreme ground ball pitcher, so his higher babip isn't really surprising.

NonProfitCow · July 18, 2011

morton's LD% is high and he's an extreme ground ball pitcher, so his higher babip isn't really surprising.

It should be very surprising, remember, the defense.

Derwood · July 18, 2011

agreed on the pirates needing to find more starters who can miss more bats. and they also need pedro alvarez to turn into the guy everyone thought he'd turn into, a middle of the lineup masher.

Alvarez crushed a deep, opposite field homer last night. Pretty impressive.

Then again, he's hitting under .250 in AAA.....

bcl412 · July 18, 2011

Hopefully you guys and some of the numbers are correct and they are a fluke then. They give me something to follow while the Cubs are terrible for a year (hopefully) but won't develop into much of a threat when/if the Cubs become good again.

Derwood · July 18, 2011

I'm at the Clippers vs Indians AAA game, and half the Pirates "prospects" have a bunch of ML service time

It's AAA.

I know, but compared to the Cleveland AAA team, Pittsburgh had way more washed up vets. Pittsburgh had a lineup with Ronny Cedeno, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Andy Marte and Garrett Olson. Cleveland's team didn't have anyone I recognized as having any significant major league service time (outside of Shelley Duncan, who also crushed a tape measure homer)

17 Seconds · July 19, 2011

pirates alone in first!

Outshined_One · July 19, 2011

I can't wait for some non-Cubs team to grossly overpay for Maholm in the offseason.

Little Slide Rooter · July 19, 2011

pirates alone in first!

When was the last time The Pirates were in 1st, or even had a winning record this late in a season?

OleMissCub · July 19, 2011

pirates alone in first!

When was the last time The Pirates were in 1st, or even had a winning record this late in a season?

1993 I'd guess

SouthSideRyan · July 19, 2011

pirates alone in first!

When was the last time The Pirates were in 1st, or even had a winning record this late in a season?

1993 I'd guess

They had a winning record on August 15th, 1999. (59-58)

In 1997, they had a winning record as late as August 26th (67-66) and were tied for 1st as late as July 17th. (Only 1.5 games out on September 2nd with a losing record!)

They sucked in 1993, 1992 is the last year they finished above 500, en route to the division title. This was also the year that Jim Leyland killed Tim Wakefield, and big shocker, the last Pirates season for Steve Buechele.

OleMissCub · July 19, 2011

Ok, 1992. Wasn't sure of the exact year that Barroid's noodle arm couldn't throw out Bream.

Formerly Snayke · July 19, 2011

Four of the Pirates starters strike out less than six per nine. I just don't think there's precedent in the last 20 years or so for a rotation to strike out so few batters, be supported by a mediocre offense and win a division championship. In a division as mediocre as this one.

UMFan83 · July 19, 2011

Article about the Pirates follies of the last 18 years on Grantland. Was the 2003 Rule 5 draft story common knowledge? (basically 5 of the first 6 picks of that draft were used on Pirates players. The Pirates passed on their own pick and laughter was heard from the other teams)

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6781455/when-long-shot-your-best-shot

SouthSideRyan · July 19, 2011

Article about the Pirates follies of the last 18 years on Grantland. Was the 2003 Rule 5 draft story common knowledge? (basically 5 of the first 6 picks of that draft were used on Pirates players. The Pirates passed on their own pick and laughter was heard from the other teams)

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6781455/when-long-shot-your-best-shot

You're gonna love when you find out who was the 1 player of those 5 to amount to anything. (What a mess of a sentence)

And how the Pirates re-acquired him at their normal trade deadline dump that same year. (despite him doing nothing all season at the major league level.

Only to trade him away later for a guy they'd non-tender a month after acquiring him.

Sorry Jake.

OleMissCub · July 19, 2011

Four of the Pirates starters strike out less than six per nine. I just don't think there's precedent in the last 20 years or so for a rotation to strike out so few batters, be supported by a mediocre offense and win a division championship. In a division as mediocre as this one.

2006 Cardinals, although their offense (10 runs above league average) was a bit better than the Pirates this year.

SO/9 for their starters

Carpenter 7.5

Marquis 4.4

Suppan 4.9

Mulder 4.8

Reyes 7.6

Weaver 4.9

Also, 2004 Twins were in the bottom half of the AL in runs scored and their starters:

Santana 10.5

Radke 5.9

Silva 3.4

Lohse 5.1

Mulholland 4.4

2003 Twins didn't have a single starter over 5.8

2004 Dodgers were 9th in the NL in Runs and only had one pitcher over 6 (Weaver at 6.3)

Clem Fandango · July 20, 2011

This is a really good article written about the current state of the Pirates:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6781455/when-long-shot-your-best-shot

EDIT: Derp... didn't see it posted above

Edited July 20, 2011 by The Logan

imb · July 20, 2011

Article about the Pirates follies of the last 18 years on Grantland. Was the 2003 Rule 5 draft story common knowledge? (basically 5 of the first 6 picks of that draft were used on Pirates players. The Pirates passed on their own pick and laughter was heard from the other teams)

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6781455/when-long-shot-your-best-shot

You're gonna love when you find out who was the 1 player of those 5 to amount to anything. (What a mess of a sentence)

And how the Pirates re-acquired him at their normal trade deadline dump that same year. (despite him doing nothing all season at the major league level.

Only to trade him away later for a guy they'd non-tender a month after acquiring him.

Sorry Jake.

oh wow

Formerly Snayke · July 20, 2011

Four of the Pirates starters strike out less than six per nine. I just don't think there's precedent in the last 20 years or so for a rotation to strike out so few batters, be supported by a mediocre offense and win a division championship. In a division as mediocre as this one.

2006 Cardinals, although their offense (10 runs above league average) was a bit better than the Pirates this year.

SO/9 for their starters

Carpenter 7.5
Marquis 4.4
Suppan 4.9
Mulder 4.8
Reyes 7.6
Weaver 4.9

Also, 2004 Twins were in the bottom half of the AL in runs scored and their starters:

Santana 10.5
Radke 5.9
Silva 3.4
Lohse 5.1
Mulholland 4.4

2003 Twins didn't have a single starter over 5.8

2004 Dodgers were 9th in the NL in Runs and only had one pitcher over 6 (Weaver at 6.3)

Oof. I forgot about my own team.

Maybe they can win 83 games and take the division. It'd be an awesome story.

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