Is Bob Brenly going to be our next manager?

[CubColtPacer]

I think it would just encourage the shift to continue. I'm sure any team would gladly give a bunt single to Carlos Pena almost every time he was at the plate instead of having him swing away. If it's luring a dangerous hitter to only bunt his way on, why stop?

 

Think of it this way. Defensively, would you want to achieve the scenario where the #4 hitter walks 75% of the time? The only way giving away bunt singles all the time is effective for the defense is if the guy is a Bondsian hitter.

 

Again, I'm not talking about Pena in a vacuum; I'm talking about Pena on the Cubs. And we're talking about a hypothetical scenario that has zero chance of happening. There isn't a breaking point where teams are going to say "gee, maybe the shift isn't such a good idea, let's shift back" because of how many times Carlos Pena bunts his way on base.

 

The Cubs are about as average offensively as you can get in the NL this year. It's not like there's a ton of scrubs behind Pena. And as we've said, if teams don't adjust, then that's just longer the Cubs can benefit from Pena getting on so much. The Cubs could score more runs that way even if Pena doesn't hit a single home run the rest of the year. And if they do adjust and Pena goes back to hitting normally, he'll have better numbers because he won't be hitting into the shift anymore.

[Sammy Sofa]

But they wouldn't adjust.

[CubColtPacer]

But they wouldn't adjust.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you, but that's the best case scenario for the Cubs if they don't adjust. Eventually, one of these power hitters is going to commit to it and whichever person does it his team will benefit greatly from it.

[Sammy Sofa]

But they wouldn't adjust.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you, but that's the best case scenario for the Cubs if they don't adjust. Eventually, one of these power hitters is going to commit to it and whichever person does it his team will benefit greatly from it.

 

I really don't think so. It's a combination of managers not being ballsy/smart/whatever enough to try it, players putting their egos aside to pull it off, and opposing teams not having an actual threshold as to which they'll stop shifting.

[Guest]

You really don't think if Carlos Pena or Ryan Howard gets an easy bunt single in the 1st, 4th, and 6th innings, that the defense won't adjust for his at bat in the 8th/9th? Never mind if someone did it consistently against a shift for, say, a couple weeks? I don't understand that line of thinking at all.

[OleMissCub]

Some of the shifts put on Teddy Ballgame.

 

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1394/cardsted.jpg

 

Also a shift that was put on Mantle:

 

 

http://seansatt.pbworks.com/f/mickster3.JPG

 

[sneakypower]

if Pena is good enough at it to drop down bunt base hits in half his ABs, he'd post a .360 wOBA, just marginally better than his current .347 pace

 

change that to 2/3 success rate and it shoots up to .480, or in other words, he becomes Jose Bautista in terms of creating runs; the huge potential upside to doing so really makes it something worth strongly considering

[javy knows my name]

This thread just got superawesome. Didn't see that coming.

[SouthSideRyan]

That Boudreau shift is outrageous.

[Sammy Sofa]

You really don't think if Carlos Pena or Ryan Howard gets an easy bunt single in the 1st, 4th, and 6th innings, that the defense won't adjust for his at bat in the 8th/9th? Never mind if someone did it consistently against a shift for, say, a couple weeks? I don't understand that line of thinking at all.

 

No, I really don't, mainly because none of us know what the threshold is. OK, so he does it his first 3 AB. Then they shift back and all of a sudden he's not bunting. Do they shift back into the shift? I just don't see managers falling for it. They're too stubborn that way, nor do I see a slugger willing to try such a thing. It's just never going to happen.

[pitchcs]

if Pena is good enough at it to drop down bunt base hits in half his ABs, he'd post a .360 wOBA, just marginally better than his current .347 pace

 

change that to 2/3 success rate and it shoots up to .480, or in other words, he becomes Jose Bautista in terms of creating runs; the huge potential upside to doing so really makes it something worth strongly considering

 

At 66% success rate?

[Guest]

You really don't think if Carlos Pena or Ryan Howard gets an easy bunt single in the 1st, 4th, and 6th innings, that the defense won't adjust for his at bat in the 8th/9th? Never mind if someone did it consistently against a shift for, say, a couple weeks? I don't understand that line of thinking at all.

 

No, I really don't, mainly because none of us know what the threshold is. OK, so he does it his first 3 AB. Then they shift back and all of a sudden he's not bunting. Do they shift back into the shift? I just don't see managers falling for it. They're too stubborn that way, nor do I see a slugger willing to try such a thing. It's just never going to happen.

 

You think they're too stubborn to play a straight up defensive alignment? It's not like the shift takes 300 points off the hitter's OPS. Managers would absolutely make that change, the fans and media would rake them over the coals if they got beat by it over and over and over.

[Derwood]

I think you'd gladly give up bunt hits to the other team's HR hitter all day long

[SouthSideRyan]

I think you'd gladly give up bunt hits to the other team's HR hitter all day long

 

Not unless the leverage was really high for that AB

Edited July 14, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[Sammy Sofa]

You really don't think if Carlos Pena or Ryan Howard gets an easy bunt single in the 1st, 4th, and 6th innings, that the defense won't adjust for his at bat in the 8th/9th? Never mind if someone did it consistently against a shift for, say, a couple weeks? I don't understand that line of thinking at all.

 

No, I really don't, mainly because none of us know what the threshold is. OK, so he does it his first 3 AB. Then they shift back and all of a sudden he's not bunting. Do they shift back into the shift? I just don't see managers falling for it. They're too stubborn that way, nor do I see a slugger willing to try such a thing. It's just never going to happen.

 

You think they're too stubborn to play a straight up defensive alignment? It's not like the shift takes 300 points off the hitter's OPS. Managers would absolutely make that change, the fans and media would rake them over the coals if they got beat by it over and over and over.

 

But that's my point; there's too many factors going against it even being attempted for any kind of sustained period of time for anyone to be beat over and over by it. Nobody's going to try it in the first place.

[sneakypower]

if Pena is good enough at it to drop down bunt base hits in half his ABs, he'd post a .360 wOBA, just marginally better than his current .347 pace

 

change that to 2/3 success rate and it shoots up to .480, or in other words, he becomes Jose Bautista in terms of creating runs; the huge potential upside to doing so really makes it something worth strongly considering

 

At 66% success rate?

you have to figure that's attainable with a little commitment (bunting practice!), but more practically, he's 56% career on his bunts - still a .402 wOBA - quite a vast improvement upon his .358 line when just swinging away.

[Guest]

Yeah, but even then it should only be done once in a blue moon (if at all) because they're so much more useful swinging away and you're counting on them to drive people in, not just move people up a base. It's not like most teams are stacked enough where you want your #4 hitter bunting.

 

This is an honest question since I haven't paid nearly enough attention to the situations, but do teams still shift on Pena when there are runners on base, particularly when there are RISP?

 

I would think that teams wouldn't shift, say, with a runner on second because having the third baseman standing close to where the shortstop does would just invite the runner to steal third easily. The point being that it would seem like Pena isn't going to be bunting with RISP because the defense would be playing him straight up or closer to straight up.

[Guest]

If the defense puts on a shift with runner on 3B and less than 2 out, Pena should safety squeeze bunt every single time.

[SouthSideRyan]

If the defense puts on a shift with runner on 3B and less than 2 out, Pena should safety squeeze bunt every single time.

 

Why not just steal home?

 

They don't do that btw.

[Guest]

If the defense puts on a shift with runner on 3B and less than 2 out, Pena should safety squeeze bunt every single time.

 

Why not just steal home?

 

They don't do that btw.

gotcha. Guess I haven't watched enough games this year to see, however your point of what would happen if nobody stayed home at 3B makes it obvious.

[Tracer Bullet]

You really don't think if Carlos Pena or Ryan Howard gets an easy bunt single in the 1st, 4th, and 6th innings, that the defense won't adjust for his at bat in the 8th/9th? Never mind if someone did it consistently against a shift for, say, a couple weeks? I don't understand that line of thinking at all.

 

No, I really don't, mainly because none of us know what the threshold is. OK, so he does it his first 3 AB. Then they shift back and all of a sudden he's not bunting. Do they shift back into the shift? I just don't see managers falling for it. They're too stubborn that way, nor do I see a slugger willing to try such a thing. It's just never going to happen.

 

You think they're too stubborn to play a straight up defensive alignment? It's not like the shift takes 300 points off the hitter's OPS. Managers would absolutely make that change, the fans and media would rake them over the coals if they got beat by it over and over and over.

 

assuming any ML slugger actually bunted enough to make an opposing manager consider changing his defense to account for it (which i think is a crazy assumption), isn't the change most likely simply to put the 3B back to 3B rather than where the SS normally stands? You wouldn't have to eliminate the entire shift to account for a bunt toward 3B. Presumably the 3B isn't expected to cover all that much ground at SS anyway, since he is a 3B afterall. So the manager isn't giving up that much in terms of probable outs by putting him back even with the bag at 3rd.

[Brett]

if Pena is good enough at it to drop down bunt base hits in half his ABs, he'd post a .360 wOBA, just marginally better than his current .347 pace

 

change that to 2/3 success rate and it shoots up to .480, or in other words, he becomes Jose Bautista in terms of creating runs; the huge potential upside to doing so really makes it something worth strongly considering

 

At 66% success rate?

you have to figure that's attainable with a little commitment (bunting practice!), but more practically, he's 56% career on his bunts - still a .402 wOBA - quite a vast improvement upon his .358 line when just swinging away.

 

Arguably, he's achieved a 56% success rate largely because he doesn't do it very often.

[DivineBovine]

The thing I remember about Brenly's managing in the WS that year was how he kept going to Byung-Hyun Kim when he was just getting crushed. I kept thinking that Brenly was an absolute idiot for letting him pitch to the Yankees.

 

But they did win. And now that I look back at the stats, it wasn't as bad as I remembered it. Kim did OK in the rest of the playoffs.