Red Sox Interested in Garza

[CUBZ99]

According to Phil Rogers the Red Sox are going to pursue Matt Garza. I'm not that familiar with the Sox system. Any chance Hendry is able to get a better package back than the one he gave up to get Garza?

 

Taking a quick look at BA's mid-season top 50, the only prospect the Red Sox have on that list is Anthony Ranaudo at 37.

 

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/sc-spt-0710-whispers-rogers-inside-ba20110709,0,1713196.story

[Sammy Sofa]

The Cubs would have to get an incredible offer for them to even consider dealing Garza. He's a huge part of their plans going forward.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I really don't want to trade Garza, but that Red Sox system seems to constantly pump out superstars. Still, my guess is that we'll try to sell them on Dempster or Z, and if they're not interested walk away. Last I checked, Daisuke, Lester, and Bucholtz were on the DL and Lacky kind of sucked, so they definitely could use some pitching.

[MWV]

The Cubs would need pitching back, and the only pitchers I know of that are near ML ready in the Sox system are Kyle Weiland (Notre Dame guy) and Felix Doubront. Will Middlebrooks could be an intriguing option at 3B.

As N&G said, the Cubs would require a big return for Garza, considering his price tag, the value he provides and the chips (Archer and HJ Lee, in particular) that were traded to land him. There isn't a lot in the Sox system that really excites me, but I'm admittedly not an expert.

[Tracer Bullet]

AGonz

[javy knows my name]

The Red Sox are a very well-run team. Garza is a very good, cheap baseball player.

 

Breaking news from Phil Rogers

[Clem Fandango]

We could use a guy like Lars Anderson, who they have no use for anymore. Granted Anderson has been underwhelming the last couple years, but still.

 

Not sure I'd trade Garza for him though, for reasons others have stated already

[Outshined_One]

I don't see how the Cubs could get a comparable package for Garza from the Red Sox than what they just gave up to get him. The Red Sox have a decidedly mediocre system at the moment.

[questionmarkgrace]

I don't see how the Cubs could get a comparable package for Garza from the Red Sox than what they just gave up to get him. The Red Sox have a decidedly mediocre system at the moment.

 

The sox' top prospects are really having some down years and most of them are at lower levels. And the pitching prospects especially are not faring well. I would be interested in Felix Doubront back of the rotation left hander and Ryan Lavarnway (19 hrs power hitting catcher) of the guys that are close as well as Bryce Brentz who looks like big time power hitting outfielder but is still at least a year away.

 

I would imagine the cubs would want some serious pitching back in this trade that the bo-sox just dont have right now. If they really want garza they need to get a third team involved to trade us a legit pitching prospect.

[tmicmiller]

Garza isn't going to the Red Sox. If the Cubs get serious about trading him, Hendry will use the Red Sox as leverage to get a better package from the Yankees. The Yankees have Montero, Banuelos, and Betances....much better prospects than what the Red Sox have left after dealing for Agon. Two of those three, plus about 3 more B prospects would probably do it.

 

At the end of the day, I don't think the Cubs move Garza unless someone like the Yankees make an overwhelming offer Hendry can't refuse. I doubt the Yankees do that, and the Red Sox don't have enough to get it done.

[questionmarkgrace]

Garza isn't going to the Red Sox. If the Cubs get serious about trading him, Hendry will use the Red Sox as leverage to get a better package from the Yankees. The Yankees have Montero, Banuelos, and Betances....much better prospects than what the Red Sox have left after dealing for Agon. Two of those three, plus about 3 more B prospects would probably do it.

 

At the end of the day, I don't think the Cubs move Garza unless someone like the Yankees make an overwhelming offer Hendry can't refuse. I doubt the Yankees do that, and the Red Sox don't have enough to get it done.

 

He could still go to the bo-sox in a three way deal which is probably more realistic than the yankees. the yanks havent expressed interest in garza yet. Also there is no way the yankees trade two or even three of those guys for anyone short of Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Let alone 3 more prospects? thats just not happening. The reason why we traded so many guys for garza was because the guyer, chirinos, and fuld are AAAA'ers at best. Lee is a real nice looking prospect and archer had a great year last year but has regressed quite a bit from those sparkling numbers. the most telling is that his whip has jumped from 1.173 to 1.639. The fact of the matter is we wont be parlaying Garza, who has had a mediocre (albiet bad luck) first half for more than we gave up for him.

[dew1679666265]

He could still go to the bo-sox in a three way deal which is probably more realistic than the yankees. the yanks havent expressed interest in garza yet. Also there is no way the yankees trade two or even three of those guys for anyone short of Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Let alone 3 more prospects? thats just not happening. The reason why we traded so many guys for garza was because the guyer, chirinos, and fuld are AAAA'ers at best. Lee is a real nice looking prospect and archer had a great year last year but has regressed quite a bit from those sparkling numbers. the most telling is that his whip has jumped from 1.173 to 1.639. The fact of the matter is we wont be parlaying Garza, who has had a mediocre (albiet bad luck) first half for more than we gave up for him.

 

He's only been mediocre if you look at ERA (4.26) alone. His K/9 is up quite a bit, his FIP and xFIP (2.93 and 2.86) are excellent and he's been worth 2.5 wins. I know you pointed out that he's been unlucky and he has, but the only thing mediocre about his numbers is his ERA even with the bad luck.

 

I'd want a ton for Garza, quite a bit more than we gave up for him.

[tmicmiller]

Hendry only trades Garza if it is a clear win...meaning someone drastically overpays. Otherwise he looks bad (again). I'd be shopping Garza to the Yankees asking for Banuelos and Betances along with 2 others, hoping the Yankees are desperate enough to overpay. If not, the Cubs hold him and he anchors the rotation for the next couple years.

 

I saw a stat today while watching the game that that Cubs are 29-25 when Garza, Dempster, or Zambrano starts. If the back end wasn't such a mess, this could be a .500 ball club.

[TruffleShuffle]

He could still go to the bo-sox in a three way deal which is probably more realistic than the yankees. the yanks havent expressed interest in garza yet. Also there is no way the yankees trade two or even three of those guys for anyone short of Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Let alone 3 more prospects? thats just not happening. The reason why we traded so many guys for garza was because the guyer, chirinos, and fuld are AAAA'ers at best. Lee is a real nice looking prospect and archer had a great year last year but has regressed quite a bit from those sparkling numbers. the most telling is that his whip has jumped from 1.173 to 1.639. The fact of the matter is we wont be parlaying Garza, who has had a mediocre (albiet bad luck) first half for more than we gave up for him.

 

He's only been mediocre if you look at ERA (4.26) alone. His K/9 is up quite a bit, his FIP and xFIP (2.93 and 2.86) are excellent and he's been worth 2.5 wins. I know you pointed out that he's been unlucky and he has, but the only thing mediocre about his numbers is his ERA even with the bad luck.

 

you can also give some credit to the cubs' bad defense.

[Backtobanks]

Hendry only trades Garza if it is a clear win...meaning someone drastically overpays. Otherwise he looks bad (again). I'd be shopping Garza to the Yankees asking for Banuelos and Betances along with 2 others, hoping the Yankees are desperate enough to overpay. If not, the Cubs hold him and he anchors the rotation for the next couple years.

 

I saw a stat today while watching the game that that Cubs are 29-25 when Garza, Dempster, or Zambrano starts. If the back end wasn't such a mess, this could be a .500 ball club.

 

And that is why some of us are pretty optimistic about 2012 assuming we spend money wisely.

[dew1679666265]

He could still go to the bo-sox in a three way deal which is probably more realistic than the yankees. the yanks havent expressed interest in garza yet. Also there is no way the yankees trade two or even three of those guys for anyone short of Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Let alone 3 more prospects? thats just not happening. The reason why we traded so many guys for garza was because the guyer, chirinos, and fuld are AAAA'ers at best. Lee is a real nice looking prospect and archer had a great year last year but has regressed quite a bit from those sparkling numbers. the most telling is that his whip has jumped from 1.173 to 1.639. The fact of the matter is we wont be parlaying Garza, who has had a mediocre (albiet bad luck) first half for more than we gave up for him.

 

He's only been mediocre if you look at ERA (4.26) alone. His K/9 is up quite a bit, his FIP and xFIP (2.93 and 2.86) are excellent and he's been worth 2.5 wins. I know you pointed out that he's been unlucky and he has, but the only thing mediocre about his numbers is his ERA even with the bad luck.

 

you can also give some credit to the cubs' bad defense.

 

Good point.

[questionmarkgrace]

He could still go to the bo-sox in a three way deal which is probably more realistic than the yankees. the yanks havent expressed interest in garza yet. Also there is no way the yankees trade two or even three of those guys for anyone short of Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Let alone 3 more prospects? thats just not happening. The reason why we traded so many guys for garza was because the guyer, chirinos, and fuld are AAAA'ers at best. Lee is a real nice looking prospect and archer had a great year last year but has regressed quite a bit from those sparkling numbers. the most telling is that his whip has jumped from 1.173 to 1.639. The fact of the matter is we wont be parlaying Garza, who has had a mediocre (albiet bad luck) first half for more than we gave up for him.

 

He's only been mediocre if you look at ERA (4.26) alone. His K/9 is up quite a bit, his FIP and xFIP (2.93 and 2.86) are excellent and he's been worth 2.5 wins. I know you pointed out that he's been unlucky and he has, but the only thing mediocre about his numbers is his ERA even with the bad luck.

 

I'd want a ton for Garza, quite a bit more than we gave up for him.

 

If we are splitting hairs, which clearly we are, his walks are up as is his whip against lesser competition than the AL east has to offer. Nonetheless, the point here is that we probably cant get more for him than what we gave up when he is not blowing people away.

[EhDubya]

Garza isn't going to the Red Sox. If the Cubs get serious about trading him, Hendry will use the Red Sox as leverage to get a better package from the Yankees. The Yankees have Montero, Banuelos, and Betances....much better prospects than what the Red Sox have left after dealing for Agon. Two of those three, plus about 3 more B prospects would probably do it.

 

At the end of the day, I don't think the Cubs move Garza unless someone like the Yankees make an overwhelming offer Hendry can't refuse. I doubt the Yankees do that, and the Red Sox don't have enough to get it done.

 

He could still go to the bo-sox in a three way deal which is probably more realistic than the yankees. the yanks havent expressed interest in garza yet. Also there is no way the yankees trade two or even three of those guys for anyone short of Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. Let alone 3 more prospects? thats just not happening. The reason why we traded so many guys for garza was because the guyer, chirinos, and fuld are AAAA'ers at best. Lee is a real nice looking prospect and archer had a great year last year but has regressed quite a bit from those sparkling numbers. the most telling is that his whip has jumped from 1.173 to 1.639. The fact of the matter is we wont be parlaying Garza, who has had a mediocre (albiet bad luck) first half for more than we gave up for him.

 

How do you know?

[dew1679666265]

If we are splitting hairs, which clearly we are, his walks are up as is his whip against lesser competition than the AL east has to offer. Nonetheless, the point here is that we probably cant get more for him than what we gave up when he is not blowing people away.

 

It's really not splitting hairs, though. Sure his BB/9 is up over last year, but the 3.13 he's posted this year is still below his career average of 3.17. Meanwhile he's striking out over 2 batters per inning more than his career average. If you want to just take his Rays days of walking batters, he's up over last year but still behind the 3.50 BB/9 in 2009. His K/9 is a full strikeout higher than his 2009 while significantly greater than that when compared to his 2008 and 2010 seasons.

 

The higher WHIP is likely being influenced by a much higher BABIP than in his previous three years (.322 this year vs .270-.273 from 08-10). That could very easily be due to a horrid Cub defense vs great Rays defenses (which is entirely out of his control). The only thing about his numbers that is mediocre is his ERA and that's really the only reason he's not considered to be having a breakout season.

[pitchcs]

I would be interested in Michael Bowden as a throw-in to any deal with Boston.

 

He was a sandwich pick drafted out of Waubonsie Valley HS (Naperville) in 2005. I graduated from Naperville Central in 2001 so I have watched his career semi-closely. When I was out in Boston for the Cubs series a fan of theirs basically told me he has no shot as a SP in Boston and has never been given a fair shake. Looks like he is a reliever now....

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bowden001mic

 

Still only 24, would be able to help the big league team immediately.

[Guest]

Copying the format from Soto discussions.

 

Is Garza overpaid? No. Is he capable of being on the next good Cubs team? Yes, he's under contract thru 2013. Is he overperforming so that a team might give more than his value for him? No (especially not the Red Sox). Would a team acquiring him be able to give up MLB or MLB ready talent to get him? No (especially not the Red Sox). Does it make sense to trade Garza? No.

 

Now obviously the caveats apply that "if we get blown away with an offer etc etc", but no team is going to give up more than Garza's worth, and even if they did they'd be doing so in assets that are far, far away from being MLB ready, so it makes the Cubs worse off anyway.

[erik316wttn]

Garza for Adrian Gonzalez, straight up.

[rawaction]

Red Sox actually have some pretty interesting prospects.

 

Anthony Rizzo is a power hitting 1B.

Josh Reddick is an OF prospect that can play CF and has some decent power potential.

Casey Kelly and Anthony Ranuado are interesting pitchers too.

 

Still, I don't know that I'd trade Garza for all 4. I would see if they are interested in Dempster for one of those hitters and a couple pitchers not in their top 10.

[SouthSideRyan]

Phil Rogers is another drooling buffoon that viewed Garza as a win for 2011 move, and is too incompetent to realize he's a key cog for '12 and '13.

[TruffleShuffle]

rizzo is on the padres and kelly is in the padres' minor league system... they were traded in the gonzalez deal.