Reed Johnson: Is he for real?

[Little Slide Rooter]

In the past, we know that Reed has been able to mash lefties. However, this year, in a limited time, hes mashed righties even more.

 

This year, in 50 AB vs. lefties, he has a line if .360/.396/.540/.936 with 1 HR.

Vs. righties, in 40 AB, he has a .350/.413/.725/1.138 with 3 HR.

 

While nobody expectes that in a bigger role, he could sustain those numbers, however, if he can do to lefites what he has throughout his career, and hold his own against righties, could he be an everyday player?

 

Folks are beginning to question if Tyler Colvin will ever be more than a 4th/5th outfielder, or even AAAA player, and Brett Jackson might be a year or so further away than we thought. Would it be worth resigning Reed to a 1-2 year deal? I doubt hed be that expensive, as hes 34 years old, and I cant see anyone going out of their way to price us out. Im not saying the 34 year old career 4th outfielder is a big part of the future, but he could be a nice band-aid for the next year or 2 while we spend the big money on Fielder or Pujols and maybe pitching and wait and see what happens with Colvin, Jackson, and Szczur.

[CubColtPacer]

Even if Reed had 300 AB's against right-handers this season it wouldn't be enough to overcome the rest of his career. It's possible he's an incredibly late developer, but the odds are very, very strongly on the side of sample size. He might have done well enough that the Cubs might choose to keep them on their bench again next season, but anything more than that would be way overrating the results he's gotten so far.

[Sammy Sofa]

Older player, small sample size, numerous back-related DL stints. Likely (hopefully) pass.

[dew1679666265]

Even if Reed had 300 AB's against right-handers this season it wouldn't be enough to overcome the rest of his career. It's possible he's an incredibly late developer, but the odds are very, very strongly on the side of sample size. He might have done well enough that the Cubs might choose to keep them on their bench again next season, but anything more than that would be way overrating the results he's gotten so far.

 

The odds against him being a late developer are even more significant when you consider the 19.3 LD% (lower than career average) and .394 BABIP (64 points higher than career average). It looks like he's getting wildly lucky.

 

I'd be ok with him coming back in a bench role, but no more.

[Backtobanks]

I'm all for him coming back as a 4th OF. He's fast, good defensively, and seems to add some spark when he's playing.

[Guest]

No, Reed Johnson can not be an everyday player, at least not on a team that has any aspirations of winning. He can't hit RHP, he doesn't hit for power or steal bases, he's not a very good defender, and he's 34 years old. He's also a poor backup option for the Cubs next year as long as Byrd is on the team, as he's "best" filling in against LHP in CF(because he can't hit enough for LF/RF and he's a horrible CF defender), and that's when Byrd or any other RH CF should be playing.

 

I mean, come on, Reed Johnson had over three thousand plate appearances before this year, he is who he is.

[NewUserName]

I'm all for him coming back as a 4th OF. He's fast, good defensively, and seems to add some spark when he's playing.

 

don't confuse making an occasional diving catch for being good defensively. I like Johnson but could go either way on him coming back as a back up. I think he is the type of player that the wrong manager would way over use and always scares me.

[Backtobanks]

I'm all for him coming back as a 4th OF. He's fast, good defensively, and seems to add some spark when he's playing.

 

don't confuse making an occasional diving catch for being good defensively. I like Johnson but could go either way on him coming back as a back up. I think he is the type of player that the wrong manager would way over use and always scares me.

 

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

[dew1679666265]

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

 

Reed: fielding percentage - 1.000 in 35 games; UZR - -5.4

 

Soriano: fielding percentage - .961 games; UZR - 2.3

 

Fielding percentage prefers Reed, but Sori has been a much better defender this year according to UZR.

[Rob]

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

 

Reed: fielding percentage - 1.000 in 35 games; UZR - -5.4

 

Soriano: fielding percentage - .961 games; UZR - 2.3

 

Fielding percentage prefers Reed, but Sori has been a much better defender this year according to UZR.

 

UZR does take into account Soriano's arm... which adds a lot more value to Soriano's D out there than people seem to give him credit for.

[dew1679666265]

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

 

Reed: fielding percentage - 1.000 in 35 games; UZR - -5.4

 

Soriano: fielding percentage - .961 games; UZR - 2.3

 

Fielding percentage prefers Reed, but Sori has been a much better defender this year according to UZR.

 

UZR does take into account Soriano's arm... which adds a lot more value to Soriano's D out there than people seem to give him credit for.

 

I think a lot of people are swayed by Soriano's boneheaded plays. He'll play decent defense most of the time - no flashy plays, but solid defense - but it's the occassional awful play that really sticks in people's minds (mine as well).

[rocket]

I'm all for him coming back as a 4th OF. He's fast, good defensively, and seems to add some spark when he's playing.

 

don't confuse making an occasional diving catch for being good defensively. I like Johnson but could go either way on him coming back as a back up. I think he is the type of player that the wrong manager would way over use and always scares me.

 

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

 

i'd wager that soriano would be 10x the superior defender than you would

[rocket]

but it's the occassional awful play that really sticks in people's minds (mine as well).

 

:( free da bum

[davearm2]

WSR: I applaud your valiant effort to sell the many MLB GMs that frequent NSBB on the underrated greatness of RJ. Pure brilliance. He's obviously the Cody Ross of 2011, and any contender would be smart to snap him up regardless of the price.

 

The rest of you guys: way to [expletive] it all up.

[Rob]

WSR: I applaud your valiant effort to sell the many MLB GMs that frequent NSBB on the underrated greatness of RJ. Pure brilliance. He's obviously the Cody Ross of 2011, and any contender would be smart to snap him up regardless of the price.

 

The rest of you guys: way to [expletive] it all up.

 

Actually, it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world for a few teams to pull a minor trade for Reed around the deadline. He's a useful enough lefty masher. I wouldn't expect much for him, but a toolsy young guy with a bad early track record in the low minors isn't a bad return.

[Shilzzz]

the only stat line that's way out of sync with the others is his HRFB%. His BABIP is around .400, and has to come down. But even on those flyballs turning into homeruns, it feels like he's been good gap to gap. they used to have spray charts on mlb.com's stats page i thought, but can't find it now. 1.542 OPS with RISP 9this year. and those UZR ratings posted earlier weren't exactly fair. Soriano's UZR/150 in left this year is 6.9, and Johnson's is 28.5, albeit in dauntingly fewer innings. however, in any season where Reed has logged significant innings in left, his stats this year, according to UZR/150, are actually down. He is no great shakes in center, but he is easily a better defender than Aldolpho.

 

i don't know why i just did all of that stat tracking on reed flipping johnson. he's a nice player, but little more. although he has won a handful of team-official hustle of the year awards while in the blue jays system, as well as in toronto itself. \:D/ :stickman: :clapping: :stickman: \:D/

[SouthSideRyan]

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

 

Reed: fielding percentage - 1.000 in 35 games; UZR - -5.4

 

Soriano: fielding percentage - .961 games; UZR - 2.3

 

Fielding percentage prefers Reed, but Sori has been a much better defender this year according to UZR.

 

That's judging Soriano as a LF vs. Johnson primarily as a CF. I'm relatively certain Reed is a better defensive LF than Soriano.

[Backtobanks]

I'm all for him coming back as a 4th OF. He's fast, good defensively, and seems to add some spark when he's playing.

 

don't confuse making an occasional diving catch for being good defensively. I like Johnson but could go either way on him coming back as a back up. I think he is the type of player that the wrong manager would way over use and always scares me.

 

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

 

i'd wager that soriano would be 10x the superior defender than you would

 

I'm sure you're correct, but I'll play for 1% of Soriano's contract to make up for my lack of defensive skills. At least I'm not allergic to brick walls like he is.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, what an idiot for not wanting to leap/run into a [expletive] brick wall.

[Backtobanks]

Yeah, what an idiot for not wanting to leap/run into a [expletive] brick wall.

 

I understand not wanting to leap or run into a brick wall, but you don't quit on a ball that's 20 feet away from the wall.

[Sammy Sofa]

He doesn't.

[rocket]

Yeah, what an idiot for not wanting to leap/run into a [expletive] brick wall.

 

I understand not wanting to leap or run into a brick wall, but you don't quit on a ball that's 20 feet away from the wall.

 

you do when your body is worth $136 million

[Sammy Sofa]

It's more the "20 feet" thing. That's goofy.

[Brett]

WSR: I applaud your valiant effort to sell the many MLB GMs that frequent NSBB on the underrated greatness of RJ. Pure brilliance. He's obviously the Cody Ross of 2011, and any contender would be smart to snap him up regardless of the price.

 

The rest of you guys: way to [expletive] it all up.

 

Actually, it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world for a few teams to pull a minor trade for Reed around the deadline. He's a useful enough lefty masher. I wouldn't expect much for him, but a toolsy young guy with a bad early track record in the low minors isn't a bad return.

 

If the Cubs don't expect much in return, I don't see why Johnson won't be traded. Hell, the Cubs got Justin Berg for a month of Matt Lawton. I'm not saying Justin Berg has been much to get excited about, but it's something.

[Backtobanks]

It's more the "20 feet" thing. That's goofy.

 

Your right he doesn't "quit" on a ball 20 feet from a wall, he just slows down to a slow trot on anything hit toward a wall so he doesn't get there to crash into the wall and plays it after it hits the ground or the wall.