2012 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

More from ABTY7 at PSD

 

Hearing the Twins and O's like Almora an awful lot as well... One scout told me some in Twins organization have Almora over Buxton due to more projectable future and better tested against top line comp...

[A New Era]

My best guess just from reading everything I can find on pre draft cubs related. The likely drops to us, in order of preference of the Cubs front office. Almora, Correa, Fried.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17238

 

Goldstein's final mock:

 

6. Chicago Cubs ($3.25M): Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy (FL)

There's really no other names attached to the Cubs at this point. The presence of Correa could create a difficult decision, and there might be some interest in Fried, but they clearly prefer the high school position players.

 

Cubs pass on Zimmer and Zunino. He has Giolito going #12 to the Mets.

[TheDude]

I'm in agreement with Tim on the #6 pick. It's going to end up a position player from the group of Buxton, Correa, or Almora.

[squally1313]

Keith Law on Waddle/Silvy in 2 minutes (10:15 Central) to talk about the Cubs/Sox draft.

 

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/chicago/play

[KingCubsFan]

In his latest mock, Law says Almora to the Cubs is the closest thing to a lock in the top 10.

[Guest]

Callis has Almora in what should be his final mock.

 

He has Giolito to the Blue Jays.

[CUBZ99]

In his latest mock, Law says Almora to the Cubs is the closest thing to a lock in the top 10.

 

I find it hard to believe that the front office that has been mostly silent and difficult for any reporter to get information from, would all of the sudden be telegraphing what their first draft pick is going to be. I'm guessing this Almora talk is simply posturing hoping that someone they like better falls to them.

[Vanilla Ice]

I'm guessing we are trying and hoping for Correa to fall, but that we will take Almora if Correa doesn't.

[davell]

If we do take a position guy at 6, I am going to be hoping like hell we have some pitching fall to us at 43 and 56. Smoral, Weickel, or Sims would be a great gift.

 

I like those guys a lot if we have an pre-draft underslot deal with Almora.

But if Theo gets lucky and Buxton or Correa drops, I don't think we will have enough room under the cap to take those overslots (Smoral would be a big overslot at 43). So I am hoping Theo takes Correa or Buxton at 6 and a Puerto Rican P or Mooneyham (all of which seem like they will take an underslot deal).

 

Really I hope they take Giolito with the first pick, and then offer him below slot until he starts pitching like a future ace again. That way the Cub's either get a front line starter (with impact potential) or they get a high pick (+$) in next year's deeper draft. I think that is the best outcome, but I doubt Theo wants to come out of his first draft telling fans "just wait until next year".

 

And while I am putting all of my draft hopes here... I really, really want Chase Mullins. The Cubs need an uber-projectable lefty in their system.

 

 

Got to remember slot value is much higher than in the past. If someone like Smoral falls and hypothetically wants 2 mill to sign, it's only 800K over our 43rd picks slot value. Throw in the 5% penalty money and we're only off by 400K or so. Which could be made up by taking a college senior and giving them 40% of slot in the 4th, 5th, and 10th rounds basically. It'd even leave us to take slot guys with our 56, 67, and 101st picks.

[Guest]

FWIW, Levine just said on the radio that the Cubs would take Correa if he falls to them, otherwise it would probably be a pitcher(he mentioned Fried). Didn't seem too reliable though, he didn't know either of their names(the SS from Puerto Rico" and "the left handed pitcher from California"), and was probably just trying to infer based on who got a Wrigley workout.

[Cubswin11]

I'm guessing we are trying and hoping for Correa to fall, but that we will take Almora if Correa doesn't.

Either that or we are trying to leak we like Almora more than Buxton hoping that other teams sour on Buxton if they are looking at taking an OF and start liking Almora more when really want Buxton all along. The ole' switcheroo. I still am holding out hope Buxton somehow falls.

[El Duderino]

I want Correa.

[CUBZ99]

Does anyone believe that Fried would sign for less than slot?

[Guest]

I want Correa. I really hope we don't pass on him if he's there, like a couple of mocks suggest.

[davell]

Does anyone believe that Fried would sign for less than slot?

 

I think it's possible. If he falls to 9 or 10, as quite a few projections have him at, slot is 2.8 and 2.7 mill. And then, you may be stuck trying your damndest to get them to come UP an extra 200K or so. I'd offer him 3 mill, save 250K off of slot and my guess is he'd bite, because it's more than he'd get if goes a little lower.

[CUBZ99]

Does anyone believe that Fried would sign for less than slot?

 

I think it's possible. If he falls to 9 or 10, as quite a few projections have him at, slot is 2.8 and 2.7 mill. And then, you may be stuck trying your damndest to get them to come UP an extra 200K or so. I'd offer him 3 mill, save 250K off of slot and my guess is he'd bite, because it's more than he'd get if goes a little lower.

 

I wouldn't mind at all if that was the direction that they take. It would give them more money to take some risks during the supp. round.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm pretty sold on Almora, and he seems like an Epstein kind of pick. Young 18, high floor, high enough ceiling, tested against elite competition from a young age.

 

He's got a higher floor than any of the other HS prospects due to his CF defense, and as Tim put it the other day, all pitchers are low floor.

 

Almora fits into the "everyone is wrong a lot in the draft, but we want to be less wrong" idea.

[davell]

I'm much more interested in 43 and 56, than I am in 6. We're going to get one of 8-9 guys(Giolito, I guess is POSSIBLE anyway) at 6 and all of them are fine picks. What I'm hoping for is for some serious talent to fall to us at 43 and 56. That's what has the chance to really amp our system up. Edited June 4, 2012 by davell

[El Duderino]

What I'm hoping for is for some serious talent to fall to us at 43 and 56. That's what has the chance to really amp our system up.

 

Yeah. And if we get Soler as well... \:D/

[craig]

In his latest mock, Law says Almora to the Cubs is the closest thing to a lock in the top 10.

 

I find it hard to believe that the front office that has been mostly silent and difficult for any reporter to get information from, would all of the sudden be telegraphing what their first draft pick is going to be. I'm guessing this Almora talk is simply posturing hoping that someone they like better falls to them.

 

The baseball scouting community is pretty small. McLeod, Wilken, Hoyer can't go to an Almora game without being seen and recognized. And I'm sure other 15 other Cub scouts whose names mean nothing to us would be recognized by other scouts, too.

 

So I think the "telegraphing" is simply showing up at Almora games to watch. Hard to hide that. I suspect the "might draft him even if they had the first pick" is not coming from Wilken or McLeod, but is coming from some scout from a different org who sees Cubs at all of Almora's games.

 

At the top of the draft, where no teams will pick again until the 30's and trades aren't allowed, there isn't much purpose in "smokescreens" and subterfuge and all that. Each organization has a large pool of scouts and comes to it's own internal decision. I may be wrong, but I doubt that Twins are coming in with Buxton-Correa-Almora 1-2-3 on their HS list, but then some Twin scout calls in, "Hey, I just read a twitter where somebody said the Cubs might actually like Almora better than Buxton! Lets jump Almora up to the top, and pass on Buxton and Correa!" If the Cubs like Buxton and Correa better than Almora, I hardly think they've playing some grant conspiracy program thinking that they're going to somehow trick the five teams above them into taking Almore first.

 

I think it's part of the recognition of other scouts that may have factored in the Simpson pick. Wilken saw him at the late tournament weekend, and thought he looked like one of the 14 best prospects. And he recognized other scouts at the same tournament, so he knew he wasn't the only guy who saw how good Simpson was at that point in time.

 

I think it's maybe different in the sandwich round area. Cardinals 36, Cubs 43, Cardinals 52, Cubs 56, Cardinals 59, Cubs 67, Cardinals 86, Cubs 101. If there's an under-the-radar kid we love, and just can't let slip away, best not make that obvious or St. Louis will have a chance to grab him first, if they also love him but are also assuming he'll last longer.

[Guest]

Here's what Law has to say about Almora in his top 100 list...

 

He has him 7th (Buxton, Correa, Gausman, Appel, Fried, Zunino 1-6)

 

Albert Almora OF6-2170

High school: Mater Academy Charter, Hialeah, Fla.

Analysis: A smooth swing, advanced feel for hitting and an ability to consistently square up the ball with wood bats makes Almora one of the most polished high school hitters in the draft (video). His upside is as an All-Star center fielder.

Previous ranking: 7 | 8 | 27

[Guest]

Rumor of the moment is that Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Heaney is a possibility as high as #3.

[Guest]

According to multiple sources, the Twins will select Georgia prep outfielder Byron Buxton second overall in Monday's amateur draft.

Jim Callis of Baseball America reported that Buxton is first overall on Minnesota's draft board. The Astros are expected to take Stanford right-hander Mark Appel first, leaving Buxton for the Twins. Most believe that Buxton has the highest ceiling of any player in the draft, but his floor is considerably lower than Appel's by all accounts. The five-tool outfielder, nicknamed Buck, has been clocked at 99 mph while pitching and once hit a ball onto the top row in the leftfield bleachers at Wrigley Field.

[Guest]

Rumor of the moment is that Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Heaney is a possibility as high as #3.

Yes! Drops a better player down to us. :)