2012 Draft Discussion

[RammyFanny]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Giolito pass Mccullers on the prep side before it's all said and done. Not that I don't necessarily like Mccullers, just that I really like Giolito.

[Guest]

I probably haven't seen Appel as much as you guys. My general feeling is that I love his ability, but I'm not completely sold that he's an ace level arm. That said, it could be a measure of me not seeing him as much, as Appel seems to have the package needed to be a top of the rotation starter.

 

He hasn't been great in college - his stuff is just dynamic but he's too hittable. I know BA ranked him the #1 prospect on Team USA.

[RammyFanny]

There's a lot of teams jammed in there, but with the Orioles recent surge the Cubs are only 2 back of the second pick.

[davell]

12 home games left. 3 each with Cincy, Pitt, Houston, and Milwaukee. 16 road games left with 4 against Cincy and 3 each with the Cards, Giants, Mets, and Pads. Hopefully we don't play ourselves out of a higher pick again.

[Hrubes20]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Giolito pass Mccullers on the prep side before it's all said and done. Not that I don't necessarily like Mccullers, just that I really like Giolito.

 

Agreed. Not much to dislike about the kid. Good frame, delivery, fastball, curve and changeup. I suppose the command could use some polish, but he still has another whole HS season to work on it.

[RammyFanny]

https://www.dailyherald.com/article/20110829/sports/708299697/

[TruffleShuffle]

worldwide draft would be really cumbersome... the draft as it is lasts 50 rounds, and then you add in all of latin america, the far east, etc? and what happens to the academies in latin america that teams have poured lots of money into? i can see a hard slotting system being installed, but not the worldwide draft.

 

also, this really annoys me:

 

The draft, in theory, is supposed to allow the worst teams to pick the best players, and that doesn’t occur under the current rules.

 

A perfect example is 2004 when the Padres had the No. 1 pick but had to pass on Justin Verlander (No. 2), Jered Weaver (No. 12) and Stephen Drew (No. 15) because of the large bonuses they sought and received, and instead took shortstop Matt Bush, who’s now pitching in the minor leagues.

 

 

oh ok, a perfect example is from 7 years ago when a team decided to save like $2m and paid dearly for their stupidity. what about the terrible nationals ending up with strasburg and harper? what about the pirates, royals and nationals being among the highest-spending teams in amateur player procurement during the past few years?

[WeGotWood98]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Giolito pass Mccullers on the prep side before it's all said and done. Not that I don't necessarily like Mccullers, just that I really like Giolito.

 

Can't say I'm a big fan of either. The HS bunch next year looks mediocre at best. Nick Williams reminds me of Gerald Williams.

[BeerHere]

So is the general feeling that the 2012 draft crop is average, below average, above average?

[Guest]

So is the general feeling that the 2012 draft crop is average, below average, above average?

 

At this point, probably below average.

[Guest]

I read that there's a chance Arkansas sophomore RHP Ryne Stanek might be eligible for next year's draft depending on the exact date of the draft (he's close to the cut off for draft-eligible sophomores). If he is eligible, he should be slotted in with Appel and Gausman in the top tier of college pitchers and could be a top 10 pick.

 

greg (New York): Hey Jim,can you give me your top five for next years draft and where would you put Kenny Diekroeger??? Thanks....

 

Jim Callis: Seems like the clear top four, with no obvious favorite to go No. 1 yet, are (in whatever order): Stanford RHP Mark Appel, Arizona State SS Deven Marrero, Georgia high school OF Byron Buxton and California prep RHP Lucas Giolito. Diekroeger is in the 5-15 mix somewhere. BA will be doing an overall Top 50 for the 2012 draft in the next couple of weeks, so look for that soon.

 

Kyle (West Plains, MO): Nobody named Lance in your top 4 for next year? Seems like he has the stuff to go #1.

 

Jim Callis: Lance McCullers Jr. is still one of the best high school prospects for the 2012 draft, but he's behind the Appel/Marrero/Buxton/Giolito group.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I think Diekroeger will climb this year. He's got the talent to be top 5 in this draft. He might be more Crosby than Tulo, but I thought his conditioning, bat speed, and swing mechanics improved a little last year a little bit. It'll depend on how he does this year both for scouts and the analysts.

[RammyFanny]

I don't know much about this Buxton kid but i've definitely read that he's rising fast (if that's possible this early in the process) on some forums.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I don't know much about this Buxton kid but i've definitely read that he's rising fast (if that's possible this early in the process) on some forums.

 

On his Perfect Game profile it says elite athlete, 5 tool potential, hits 94 on the mound. Sounds like the Bubba Starling of the draft.

[UK1679666180]

So is the general feeling that the 2012 draft crop is average, below average, above average?

 

At this point, probably below average.

 

Bad across the board, looking forward '13 though.

 

Beerhere,

 

As far as Illinois prospects....

 

Brent Lilek of Marian Catholic, Koziol of Prov. Cath. (ineligible for '12 at this point), Goldstein of Highland Park, Funkhouser of Oak Forest, and Hickman of Simeon are the best HS and overall draft prospects of '12. Not much as far as Collegiate.

[Guest]

BA has their first top 50 prospects out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/early-draft-preview/2011/2612334.html

 

Since it's premium content, I'll just list the top 5:

 

1. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

2. Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State

3. Mike Zunino, C, Florida

4. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (Los Angeles, CA)

5. Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (Baxley, GA)

 

 

Callis also tried his hand at a mock draft of the top 10: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/column/2011/2612354.html

 

1. Astros: Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State

2. Orioles: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

3. Twins: Mike Zunino, C, Florida

4. Mariners: Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (Baxley, GA)

5. Royals: Chris Beck, RHP, Georgia Southern

6. Padres: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (Los Angeles, CA)

7. Cubs: Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU

After injuries and ineffectiveness plagued many of its pitchers at the major and minor league levels, Chicago needs help on the mound. Louisiana State righthander Kevin Gausman, a draft-eligible sophomore, can provide that with a lively 92-96 mph fastball and a deceptive changeup.

8. Pirates: Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, LA)

9. Athletics: Victor Roache, OF, Georgia Southern

10. Marlins: Brian Johnson, 1B/LHP, Florida

 

A little more on Gausman from the BA top 50 list:

 

Flame-throwing draft-eligible sophomore shows potential for three plus pitches.

[davell]

Wow, no McCullers in the top 10?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Does it sound crazy to say that there's a good chance that I'd take Gausman over Appel anyway? Physically Gausman reminds me of a RH Cole Hamels, all arms and legs and the whole long tapering torso thing. Obviously he's got a more RH arsenal than Hamels, which includes more of a slider than a curveball (though he can spin both) and better fastball velocity.

 

Appel has alot of things I like...his arm is awesome, everything moves...Stanford is a great school with a strong program...he dominated his 20 innings in the Cape...He's got the tools to live up to being the #1 ranked prospect definitely, and I'd like to see him take his Cape dominance with him to the Pac-10. That said, he's not all the way there yet and I don't think he dominates the #1 spot so much as occupies it currently.

 

Giolito might really grow on me. I'm glad to see he's already passed McCullers, who IMO was overrated to start with anyway.

[Guest]

Wow, no McCullers in the top 10?

 

No, BA had him at #16.

 

16. Lance McCullers Jr., rhp, Jesuit HS, Tampa

Electric stuff including a fastball that gets up to 98, but probably winds up in bullpen like his father.

 

Also, Arkansas sophomore Ryne Stanek missed being eligible for the draft by 5 days and will be eligible in 2013. He would have been another nice pick in the 6-10 range like Gausman.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Bullpen Banter put up some 2012 draft prospect stuff:

 

http://www.bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=485:2012-mlb-draft-prospects&catid=18:articles&Itemid=11

 

Here's what they had to say on Gasuman so far:

Comment: This was my second look at Gausman and he was extremely impressive on Saturday. As you can probably tell, the change-up was devastating. He got the majority of his strikeouts with the pitch and Alabama hitters had little chance of doing anything with it. The slider and curve ball, he only threw a handful of times combined. He didn't have much feel for either pitch, but that one excellent curve ball gives me something to dream on. A couple of weeks ago, I thought Mark Appel was the best 2012 college draftee. Now, I'm not sure which pitcher I'd rather have.

 

Appel:

 

Comment: I have yet to see Appel put all of his pitches together in any given outing. The stuff is there for him to be an elite pitching prospect with three plus or better pitches. I was impressed with how well he adapted to a lack of fastball command in this look. He went through phases where he threw predominantly fastballs then curve balls before finding consistency with the change-up. Perhaps the best I can say about him is that he was not dwarfed by Gerrit Cole.

 

They have video of HS kids and such...Hunter Virant looks like a talent.

[Guest]

Bullpen Banter put up some 2012 draft prospect stuff:

 

http://www.bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=485:2012-mlb-draft-prospects&catid=18:articles&Itemid=11

 

Here's what they had to say on Gasuman so far:

Comment: This was my second look at Gausman and he was extremely impressive on Saturday. As you can probably tell, the change-up was devastating. He got the majority of his strikeouts with the pitch and Alabama hitters had little chance of doing anything with it. The slider and curve ball, he only threw a handful of times combined. He didn't have much feel for either pitch, but that one excellent curve ball gives me something to dream on. A couple of weeks ago, I thought Mark Appel was the best 2012 college draftee. Now, I'm not sure which pitcher I'd rather have.

 

Appel:

 

Comment: I have yet to see Appel put all of his pitches together in any given outing. The stuff is there for him to be an elite pitching prospect with three plus or better pitches. I was impressed with how well he adapted to a lack of fastball command in this look. He went through phases where he threw predominantly fastballs then curve balls before finding consistency with the change-up. Perhaps the best I can say about him is that he was not dwarfed by Gerrit Cole.

 

They have video of HS kids and such...Hunter Virant looks like a talent.

 

Gausman's curve is way ahead of his slider. Appel has great stuff but just hasn't put it together for long stretches. I feel like I've read some variety of the bolded on just about every Appel scouting report.

 

Virant only started pitching his junior year in HS. UCLA has Giolito, Fried and Virant as commits - I wish 1 of them would make it to campus.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Yeah I thought Gausman was a slider guy. Good to see he has better taste.

 

Completely agree with what you bolder CR. That and lack of dominance (pre-Cod, which was 20 IP anyway) are the big knocks on Appel.

 

All I know is that I want the Cubs to walk away with a big time arm.

[Iceblink]

Going into the final games, the Cubs draft position has a lot of room to move down and a little room to move up:

Oakland	72	87	.453	27	
Colorado	72	87	.453	27
Florida	71	88	.447	28
Pittsburgh	71	88	.447	28
Kansas City	70	89	.440	29
Chicago Cubs	70	89	.440  29
San Diego	69	90	.434	30
Baltimore	67	92	.421	32
Seattle	66	93	.415	33
Minnesota	61	98	.384	38
Houston	55	104	.346	44

 

We could potentially "fall" past the Padres depending on how this series goes, and 5 teams behind (ahead?) of us are within 2 games. (The last value is games behind the best record, from ESPN's overall standings list.)

[CP_414]

Last night's loss eliminated the Cubs from the 10th or 11th spots. As it stands now they could be anywhere from 5-9.

 

If they lose today and tomorrow, the Cubs will pick 5th. If they split they will need Florida, KC, and Pittsburgh to split their last 2 games for the Cubs to finish 5th. In a weaker draft the difference between 5th and 9th could be pretty significant.

[UK1679666180]

With Appel, I don't know how you don't draft him #1 overall. Scouts are questioning his ability to win. They think he might be similar to Morrow, where he has plus plus stuff but somehow manages to be .500. Personally, I'd take him one based on reports. Giolito is my fav prep player