2012 Draft Discussion

[davell]

Cubs draft pool currently sits at 8 mill, according to Callis.

[Guest]

As part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams are now assigned an aggregate signing bonus pool for their picks in the first 10 rounds of the draft. Each has a predetermined value, from $7.2 million for the No. 1 choice to $125,000 for pick No. 300 and any subsequent.

 

Any team that exceeds its bonus pool by 0-5 percent must pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. The penalties escalate, with a 75 percent tax and the loss of a first-round pick for a 5-10 percent overage; a 100 percent tax and the loss of first- and second-rounders for a 10-15 percent overage; and a 100 percent tax and the loss of two first-rounders for an overage of 15 percent or more.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/2012-aggregate-bonus-pools/

 

The Cubs have the 8th biggest pool at $7,933,900. They spent $6,559,950 last year on the top 10 (w/ a 1st rd pick 3 spots lower and 2 fewer picks). They spent $11,994,550 overall on the 2011 draft.

[davell]

The only advantages I see available is the 5% rule. I fully expect we'll use that anyway. Which would give us an extra 400,000 to spend basically. Although it'll cost us 700,000 to do it. Only other option is find TONS of HS kids in rounds 11-40 who are willing to sign for 100,000. Which will NOT be easy to do. It's going to take time for teams to get the hang of this new stuff, hopefully our guys get an early start on most teams.

[Guest]

How the top college draft prospects did on the opening weekend of the season: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-1-2/

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

How the top college draft prospects did on the opening weekend of the season: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-1-2/

 

Questions for anyone who might know:

 

What's the word on Preston Tucker?

 

Do teams think Matt Reynolds has the bat to be a first round pick?

 

Can Micah Johnson stay at 2B?

 

Is Peter O'Brien the Miami catcher any good?

 

Will many of these questions play themselves out over the season?

 

Gausman or Appel @ 6...Zunino really would also work...Appel only 5 K's in his 7 innings...K's are going to be big for him this year. Oh, and Brett Mooneyham would be a sweet get.

[davell]

I have no idea why Tucker and O'Brien didn't turn pro last year. They'll both lose money now, because they have no leverage at all. O'Brien is at least a true talent. Tucker doesn't really have a position. He'll be worse off than O'Brien most likely. As far as Appel goes, he does need to start K'ing some guys. I'm hopeful that a few pitchers standout and we have some guys to choose from.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

You can see highlights of Gausman on LSU's website. I don't think he's getting to 6. That would be a gift though, because he looks like he can be an elite prospect.

[davell]

I'll take starting pitching, Buxton, or Zunino. All I really want to see though is for Marrero to have question marks attached, to where he's not worth us taking at 6. Just not enough upside there. The more I'm reading, the more I think Max Fried and maybe Matt Smoral will be in the discussion for us. Both could wind up as TOR lefties.

[Named After Maddux]

Especially after Wilken highlighted lefty SP as a weakness of the system that they want to address in the draft, it wouldn't surprise me if they went that way early (1st/Sup/2nd round). I agree you take BPA, but I would be very happy if we could find a high upside lefty SP early.

[davell]

Aaron Fitt just mentioned on Twitter that Kyle Zimmer has put himself into conversation about going 1st overall. Wow.

[Guest]

Aaron Fitt just mentioned on Twitter that Kyle Zimmer has put himself into conversation about going 1st overall. Wow.

 

To be honest, I was surprised Baseball America had him rated so low previously (#28). He was 92-95 last year and now he's topping out at 99. I also like that he has way less mileage on his arm since he didn't pitch much in HS.

[davell]

If Zunino keeps up what he's doing, or anything close, no way he makes it to 6. O'Brien has started off very well as well. Since the only "upside" Catcher we've got is Malave, I'd be OK with looking at O'Brien as a supplemental round guy, especially if he'd take less to sign, since he's a senior.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I can't buy that Kyle Zimmer thing for a second. I hate his mechanics. It would be great for the Cubs if he went #1 overall though.

 

Which of the two HS lefties would you guys take here in um...February? Smoral actually looks like he could be really, really, really interesting come summer. Looks like he's bigger with more velocity too, and his mechanics have taken steps forward.

[davell]

I thought Smoral was mostly projection and threw 90ish right now, but Fried was more polished and throws 94/95? He seems to be the one gaining early traction out of the HS guys anyway, Piliere put him 5th overall actually.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I thought Smoral was mostly projection and threw 90ish right now, but Fried was more polished and throws 94/95? He seems to be the one gaining early traction out of the HS guys anyway, Piliere put him 5th overall actually.

 

Sure but he also ranked Gausman 12th.

 

Smoral does look like all projection right now as I think his breaking stuff is behind Fried's. That said, he seems to have improved significantly mechanically. His style right now both mechanically and stuff wise reminds me of Bumgarner from the Giants, and there's lots of room for growth and improvement for him.

 

I think Fried's profile gets a boost because of the school he's coming from. He's definitely got talent, but there's something I don't like about him right now. I don't like him as much as other recently touted HS lefties like Matzek, Skaggs, Kershaw, Biddle, or even Norris last year either, and I actually think Smoral might be closer to that mold right now.

 

Right now I wouldn't use the 6th pick on either one...

[Guest]

I thought Smoral was mostly projection and threw 90ish right now, but Fried was more polished and throws 94/95? He seems to be the one gaining early traction out of the HS guys anyway, Piliere put him 5th overall actually.

 

If Fried throws 88-92.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I thought Smoral was mostly projection and threw 90ish right now, but Fried was more polished and throws 94/95? He seems to be the one gaining early traction out of the HS guys anyway, Piliere put him 5th overall actually.

 

If Fried throws 88-92.

 

I thought 94/95 would be peak velocity. If Fried pitched at 94/95 then he might be ahead of Giolito as the best prep arm.

[Guest]

I thought Smoral was mostly projection and threw 90ish right now, but Fried was more polished and throws 94/95? He seems to be the one gaining early traction out of the HS guys anyway, Piliere put him 5th overall actually.

 

If Fried throws 88-92.

 

I thought 94/95 would be peak velocity. If Fried pitched at 94/95 then he might be ahead of Giolito as the best prep arm.

 

Oops, there shouldn't have been an "if" in my post.

 

Yeah, I guess he was saying Fried tops out at 95. Prep lefty normally going 88-92, even with Fried's command and plus offspeed pitches shouldn't be a top 5 draft prospect. I agree, if he was pumping it 94-95, he'd be a better prospect than Giolito.

[davell]

Yeah, I should have clarified that. Didn't mean to insinuate he's sitting 94/95. I don't have any idea what to expect over the course of this season, but seeing the top 10 or so get turned upside down more than usual seems like a good bet.

[Guest]

More on Zimmer: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/san-franciscos-kyle-zimmer-generates-early-draft-buzz/

 

He did not disappoint, and we received multiple glowing reports after his outing.

 

"His first pitch was 97, the next was 98.  He never threw a pitch under 93, and the first 22 pitches were all strikes," a National League area scout said. "He clearly jumped to the front of the pack for being 1-1 (the first pick in the first round). He has the best curveball in the area, and he's an 80 athlete. We're not talking about a guy that just has good stuff. He's an off-the-charts athlete—as good an athlete as you can get."

[Guest]

Appel with 10 Ks in 7 scoreless against a solid Texas team tonight.

 

Zimmer had a good outing but his velo was down to last year's 92-95.

[Guest]

Victor Roache hurt his left hand diving for a ball today. He fractured his wrist, similar injury to Jackie Bradley Jr last year.

 

Brett Mooneyham was dominant for Stanford today.

[davell]

Roache as a top 10 pick does nothing for me, but he'd be a great supplemental round pick, if he's out all season(having surgery tomorrow) and drops, like Bradley Jr did.

[Guest]

Roache as a top 10 pick does nothing for me, but he'd be a great supplemental round pick, if he's out all season(having surgery tomorrow) and drops, like Bradley Jr did.

 

Georgia Southern's coach said he'll have surgery early next week and he expects Roache to be back before the season ends (just like Jackie Bradley Jr returned for the NCAA Tournament last June).

 

ETA: Roache himself told BA's Conor Glasey he expects to miss the season. Tough break for a small school guy with some question marks in his game.

[Guest]

BA Scouting Videos:

 

, Baxley (GA)

, Birmingham (AL)

, Lafayette (LA)

, Solon (OH)

, Gurabo (PR)

, Orlando (FL)

, Bossier City (LA)