Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-18-11

[toonsterwu]

craig - i half wonder if i'd slot beeler in my top 10. Been pondering midseason rankings/state of the farm due to the draft coming up, but i'm not one to start a thread. I know BJax, McNutt, Whitenack are definitely in the top 5. Probably LeMahieu. After that, I'm a bit up in the air on the rest.

[toonsterwu]

oh, i've never been a huge fan of Robinson Lopez. thought he was somewhat overrated when we got him (although to land him in a Lee deal was still solid). All that said, I'm sort of taking this year with a grain of salt. Looks like the Cubs are trying to polish him up a tiny bit, akin to their work with Archer.

[Guest]

craig - i half wonder if i'd slot beeler in my top 10. Been pondering midseason rankings/state of the farm due to the draft coming up, but i'm not one to start a thread. I know BJax, McNutt, Whitenack are definitely in the top 5. Probably LeMahieu. After that, I'm a bit up in the air on the rest.

 

No Ha? I definitely prefer him to LeMahieu and probably Whitenack too.

[toonsterwu]

I'd probably squeeze Ha in my top 5, but while I know the scouting reports on his swing and approach are fine, I'm still wary of that low walk rate. Much as I wasn't high on Whitenack entering the year, he's got a legit power sinker now, and this isn't exactly Justin Berg and his lack of secondary offerings. He's had enough starts in AA that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and I think the gap between his floor and Ha's is wider than the gap between Ha's ceiling and Whitenack's ceiling (I think, if he maintains his velo all year, his ceiling is that of a potential number 3, borderline 2, depending on how he polishes up his secondary pitches.) All that said, I think there's a top 2, and then a group bunched together ...

 

Let's see, trying to sort out a top 10 on the fly, I'd go something like

 

1. Brett Jackson - Was he as good as his start to the year? Nah. That said, he's still a very solid all-around OF prospect, and I still sort of think Jackson's ceiling is a bit underrated. I'd go something like high end 4-star or a B+ for him. A bit bothered by the splits, but SSS.

2. Trey McNutt - Has all the makings of a solid starting pitching prospect, but I wonder if his ceiling was a bit overhyped last year. That said, gotta see him work a bit more into games to get a better gauge. I'd go something like middle of the pack 4-star or a low end B+.

 

Then I'd bunch these guys close

 

3. Robert Whitenack - If he tightens up his secondary offerings, to go with the newfound velo, he could make that another jump. I'd go 3-star, B.

4. DJ LeMahieu - He's done what he's needed to do (add power), while walking a bit more. Still think he could handle 2nd decently enough, particularly in his youth. I'd go 3-star, B.

5. Jae-Hoon Ha - Waiting to see how he responds to AA pitching. I agree, on talent, he might deserve to be higher. I'd go 3 star, B.

 

After that, it's a bit messy. A first run through would be

 

6. Matt Szczur - Nod to the speculated ceiling and acknowledging his solid start to year. Borderline 3-star, B/B- for me.

7. Hayden Simpson - Willing to give him a mulligan on the year, but that places huge emphasis on his 2012. I'd go 2 star, B-.

8. Austin Kirk - I don't know ... seems a bit high for a guy who's ceiling might be more of a 3/4 type lefty starter, but he's been dang good, is young and ... is performing well. I'd go C+.

9. Josh Vitters - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling. Some positive signs, but not enough. Hanging around more due to lack of upside in system. If nice, I'd go C+ due to upside.

10. Ben Wells - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling, but could go a ton of ways.

 

- Flaherty's struggles after his hot start ruled him out for me for now, although I feel more comfortable with the idea that Flaherty might be a possible solid corner OF option, rather than a utility guy.

 

- Jay Jackson hasn't done enough for me to buy that he's anything more than a pen arm, and I don't rate pen arms high. Carpenter's control is so troubling that I don't know what to think right now.

 

- Golden hasn't done enough to get him back in a top 10 for now for me.

 

- The collapse of the lefties - Raley and Antigua really drop.

 

- I really pondered Struck in the top 10 ... thought long about Kurcz and Dolis as well.

[CubsWin]

Kurcz was quite impressive as usual. 5 IP, 0 ER 1 H 1 BB 2 K. This guys been nothing but good since we drafted him last year. Could he be the next one up to Tennessee?

I think so, though not for a while yet. He started out the season a little bumpy as most players do while adjusting to the new level. But since late April, he's pitched 20 innings, allowing 1 earned run on 12 hits with 9 walks against 20 strikeouts. Not too shabby for a 20 year old at High-A.

 

If/when Kurcz does get promoted, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dallas Beeler replace him in Daytona. He pitched 4 innings of 1 hit ball, with 4 Ks and 0 BBs. He now has an 0.86 ERA in Peoria holding MWL hitters to a .187 AVG, striking out 15 while walking just 3. Apparently he is locating a 92-94 mph fastball with pretty good precision. He looks like another late round steal so far.

 

I think Austin Kirk is more likely to get the promotion from Peoria, especially since he hasn't missed time with injury.

Yeah, I was thinking about Kirk also. What has me leaning Beeler is that he's a year older. Maybe that won't factor in. We'll see.

 

What's nice is that they are both performing well enough to be considered. :D

[CubsWin]

1. Brett Jackson - Was he as good as his start to the year? Nah. That said, he's still a very solid all-around OF prospect, and I still sort of think Jackson's ceiling is a bit underrated. I'd go something like high end 4-star or a B+ for him. A bit bothered by the splits, but SSS.

2. Trey McNutt - Has all the makings of a solid starting pitching prospect, but I wonder if his ceiling was a bit overhyped last year. That said, gotta see him work a bit more into games to get a better gauge. I'd go something like middle of the pack 4-star or a low end B+.

 

Then I'd bunch these guys close

 

3. Robert Whitenack - If he tightens up his secondary offerings, to go with the newfound velo, he could make that another jump. I'd go 3-star, B.

4. DJ LeMahieu - He's done what he's needed to do (add power), while walking a bit more. Still think he could handle 2nd decently enough, particularly in his youth. I'd go 3-star, B.

5. Jae-Hoon Ha - Waiting to see how he responds to AA pitching. I agree, on talent, he might deserve to be higher. I'd go 3 star, B.

 

After that, it's a bit messy. A first run through would be

 

6. Matt Szczur - Nod to the speculated ceiling and acknowledging his solid start to year. Borderline 3-star, B/B- for me.

7. Hayden Simpson - Willing to give him a mulligan on the year, but that places huge emphasis on his 2012. I'd go 2 star, B-.

8. Austin Kirk - I don't know ... seems a bit high for a guy who's ceiling might be more of a 3/4 type lefty starter, but he's been dang good, is young and ... is performing well. I'd go C+.

9. Josh Vitters - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling. Some positive signs, but not enough. Hanging around more due to lack of upside in system. If nice, I'd go C+ due to upside.

10. Ben Wells - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling, but could go a ton of ways.

 

- Flaherty's struggles after his hot start ruled him out for me for now, although I feel more comfortable with the idea that Flaherty might be a possible solid corner OF option, rather than a utility guy.

 

- Jay Jackson hasn't done enough for me to buy that he's anything more than a pen arm, and I don't rate pen arms high. Carpenter's control is so troubling that I don't know what to think right now.

 

- Golden hasn't done enough to get him back in a top 10 for now for me.

 

- The collapse of the lefties - Raley and Antigua really drop.

 

- I really pondered Struck in the top 10 ... thought long about Kurcz and Dolis as well.

toonster, assuming their production doesn't take a dramatic turn for the worse, where would you place Justin Bour and Micah Gibbs?

[TruffleShuffle]

is that really our top 10? yuck.

[toonsterwu]

1. Brett Jackson - Was he as good as his start to the year? Nah. That said, he's still a very solid all-around OF prospect, and I still sort of think Jackson's ceiling is a bit underrated. I'd go something like high end 4-star or a B+ for him. A bit bothered by the splits, but SSS.

2. Trey McNutt - Has all the makings of a solid starting pitching prospect, but I wonder if his ceiling was a bit overhyped last year. That said, gotta see him work a bit more into games to get a better gauge. I'd go something like middle of the pack 4-star or a low end B+.

 

Then I'd bunch these guys close

 

3. Robert Whitenack - If he tightens up his secondary offerings, to go with the newfound velo, he could make that another jump. I'd go 3-star, B.

4. DJ LeMahieu - He's done what he's needed to do (add power), while walking a bit more. Still think he could handle 2nd decently enough, particularly in his youth. I'd go 3-star, B.

5. Jae-Hoon Ha - Waiting to see how he responds to AA pitching. I agree, on talent, he might deserve to be higher. I'd go 3 star, B.

 

After that, it's a bit messy. A first run through would be

 

6. Matt Szczur - Nod to the speculated ceiling and acknowledging his solid start to year. Borderline 3-star, B/B- for me.

7. Hayden Simpson - Willing to give him a mulligan on the year, but that places huge emphasis on his 2012. I'd go 2 star, B-.

8. Austin Kirk - I don't know ... seems a bit high for a guy who's ceiling might be more of a 3/4 type lefty starter, but he's been dang good, is young and ... is performing well. I'd go C+.

9. Josh Vitters - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling. Some positive signs, but not enough. Hanging around more due to lack of upside in system. If nice, I'd go C+ due to upside.

10. Ben Wells - Sort of sneaking him in on ceiling, but could go a ton of ways.

 

- Flaherty's struggles after his hot start ruled him out for me for now, although I feel more comfortable with the idea that Flaherty might be a possible solid corner OF option, rather than a utility guy.

 

- Jay Jackson hasn't done enough for me to buy that he's anything more than a pen arm, and I don't rate pen arms high. Carpenter's control is so troubling that I don't know what to think right now.

 

- Golden hasn't done enough to get him back in a top 10 for now for me.

 

- The collapse of the lefties - Raley and Antigua really drop.

 

- I really pondered Struck in the top 10 ... thought long about Kurcz and Dolis as well.

toonster, assuming their production doesn't take a dramatic turn for the worse, where would you place Justin Bour and Micah Gibbs?

 

If Bour maintains his ridiculous pace, which would likely lead to a AA bump somehow, and performs well, then sure, I could perhaps squeeze him into the back of a top 10, otherwise I'd guess 11-20, and my hunch is more back end of the top 20. As for Gibbs, I think I'd plop him in the 20's.

 

Again, I'm just making this up in my head right now. Haven't really sat down and pondered it that long.

[toonsterwu]

is that really our top 10? yuck.

 

just making it up off the top of my head right now, but ... who else is out there? Hard to really bump up a Liria/Austin Reed right now.

 

I sort of noted earlier that I would ponder Beeler in the top 10. I'm not a guy that ranks pen arms high, but I could see some folks putting Kurcz, Dolis, Carpenter in there. Carpenter's control is really troubling me, though. Furthermore, I'm not sure Alberto Cabrera would be that much worse, if at all, than those three as pen arms, but he's far off my radar for a top 10 list right now. Also not sure Frank Batista is that far behind those pen arms as well.

[Little Slide Rooter]

is that really our top 10? yuck.

I don't know, it makes sense to me. Aside from Jackson, Flaherty(who I could see becoming a super sub), LaMahieu, and maybe McNutt who could be able to contribute fairly soon, I see a lot of young, high ceiling guys. Most of the guys we were tracking this time last year

 

Castro-big leagues

Cashner-big leagues

Archer-traded

Guyer-traded

Lee-traded

J. Jackson-struggling

Carpenter-struggling

Coleman-big leagues

Barney-big leagues

Castillo-big leagues

 

Basically, its a new wave.

[craig]

....I wouldn't be surprised to see Dallas Beeler replace him in Daytona. He pitched 4 innings of 1 hit ball, with 4 Ks and 0 BBs. He now has an 0.86 ERA in Peoria holding MWL hitters to a .187 AVG, striking out 15 while walking just 3. Apparently he is locating a 92-94 mph fastball with pretty good precision. He looks like another late round steal so far.

 

Thanks much, CubsWin. Just to clarify on the 92-94 with precision:

 

1. Are you just deducing that because Az Phil said he was 92-94 last fall, and you deduce from his results that he's doing so with precision?

 

2. Or is this really info from this spring? You've seen the 92-94 bit, or you've gotten that from some source who has seen him this spring?

 

I'm assuming it's #2, real info from this spring which may be consistent with AzPhil's stuff but is independent of it?

 

Heh, I'm just trying to be careful. Once in a while I read something multiple times, and I think it's multiple confirmation that the info is correct. When really it's one report of a guy hitting 90-X miles per hour, and multiple posters kind of repeating that. So yours really is a fresh report, I think?

[CubsWin]

....I wouldn't be surprised to see Dallas Beeler replace him in Daytona. He pitched 4 innings of 1 hit ball, with 4 Ks and 0 BBs. He now has an 0.86 ERA in Peoria holding MWL hitters to a .187 AVG, striking out 15 while walking just 3. Apparently he is locating a 92-94 mph fastball with pretty good precision. He looks like another late round steal so far.

 

Thanks much, CubsWin. Just to clarify on the 92-94 with precision:

 

1. Are you just deducing that because Az Phil said he was 92-94 last fall, and you deduce from his results that he's doing so with precision?

 

2. Or is this really info from this spring? You've seen the 92-94 bit, or you've gotten that from some source who has seen him this spring?

 

I'm assuming it's #2, real info from this spring which may be consistent with AzPhil's stuff but is independent of it?

 

Heh, I'm just trying to be careful. Once in a while I read something multiple times, and I think it's multiple confirmation that the info is correct. When really it's one report of a guy hitting 90-X miles per hour, and multiple posters kind of repeating that. So yours really is a fresh report, I think?

In the another thread, I mistaken thought Beeler was throwing 90-92 and toonsterwu corrected me that he was throwing 92-94 and touching higher. I deduced that he must be throwing it with pretty good precision because he's only walked 3 batters all season. I don't know where toonster got it from, but he seems like a pretty reliable source to me. I wish I could verify it better than that for you, but...

[toonsterwu]

I got it 2nd hand. Wasn't based off AzPhil's report from last year, but I need to be clear that I got it 2nd hand. And it was off one game. I've been trying to find out if he's been able to keep up that velo, but haven't heard since.

[Guest]

Jim Callis was the first to talk about Beeler's velocity. In the Cubs chat on their top prospect list this offseason:

 

Dan (Lansing): What can you tell me about Dallas Beeler?

 

Jim Callis: Another good sleeper from the 2010 draft. Had Tommy John surgery at Oral Roberts, throwing 92-95 again and also showing a promising slider.

 

Nate, what has his velocity been like this season?

[ScrubMD]

is that really our top 10? yuck.

 

Seems overly whiney considering in just the past couple years the farm system has given us our best player, 3/5 of our (original) rotation, 3/7 of our bullpen, a few other regulars, and still has the guy who will most likely be our starting CF next year, another guy with a very good shot of being in the rotation next year and several other guys who will probably make the majors at some point.

[mul21]

is that really our top 10? yuck.

 

Seems overly whiney considering in just the past couple years the farm system has given us our best player, 3/5 of our (original) rotation, 3/7 of our bullpen, a few other regulars, and still has the guy who will most likely be our starting CF next year, another guy with a very good shot of being in the rotation next year and several other guys who will probably make the majors at some point.

 

When you put it that way, it's not nearly as bad. But it is a pretty uninspiring group based on current production and potential ceilings.

[Little Slide Rooter]

is that really our top 10? yuck.

 

Seems overly whiney considering in just the past couple years the farm system has given us our best player, 3/5 of our (original) rotation, 3/7 of our bullpen, a few other regulars, and still has the guy who will most likely be our starting CF next year, another guy with a very good shot of being in the rotation next year and several other guys who will probably make the majors at some point.

 

When you put it that way, it's not nearly as bad. But it is a pretty uninspiring group based on current production and potential ceilings.

 

I liek what we have on the farm, and we do have a lot of guys that should be solid pieces for the future, especially if we get Pujols or Fielder to build around, but our system really could use an elite type prospect, and Bubba Starling could be that guy. Of course, many of us thought the same about Josh Vitters when we drafted him. Teams seem to be locking up their young stars like Votto, Braun, Tulo, and Longoria a lot more these days, so you cant just assume that you can nab your guys via free agency.

[Guest]

I tried to come up with a top 10 and it's pretty ugly at the bottom of the list.

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Trey McNutt

3. Jae-Hoon Ha

4. Robert Whitenack

5. Josh Vitters

6. Rafael Dolis

7. Matt Szczur

8. DJ LeMahieu

9. Ryan Flaherty

10. Austin Kirk

[TruffleShuffle]

is that really our top 10? yuck.

 

Seems overly whiney considering in just the past couple years the farm system has given us our best player, 3/5 of our (original) rotation, 3/7 of our bullpen, a few other regulars, and still has the guy who will most likely be our starting CF next year, another guy with a very good shot of being in the rotation next year and several other guys who will probably make the majors at some point.

 

When you put it that way, it's not nearly as bad. But it is a pretty uninspiring group based on current production and potential ceilings.

 

well it is bad when you consider that the (chicago) cubs are a lousy team. the farm system isn't doing much good if it's producing enough talent to help field a 75 win club.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I tried to come up with a top 10 and it's pretty ugly at the bottom of the list.

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Trey McNutt

3. Jae-Hoon Ha

4. Robert Whitenack

5. Josh Vitters

6. Rafael Dolis

7. Matt Szczur

8. DJ LeMahieu

9. Ryan Flaherty

10. Austin Kirk

 

I don't find it ugly at all. LaMahieu and Flaherty may never be superstars, but both seem like the type of players that could be decent pieces in the long run.

[Guancous]

Few systems have 9 guys that are likely to have major league careers. Not the Royals but not bad considering how many prospects graduated the last couple of years.

[toonsterwu]

I think the system right now compares alright to the perception of our system after the Garza trade. While there have been some disappointments, there have been some improvements to balance things out.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Few systems have 9 guys that are likely to have major league careers. Not the Royals but not bad considering how many prospects graduated the last couple of years.

This. Its far from an elite system, but I doubt most teams 7-10 prospects are projected to anything but average players at best. In some teams, even more so.

 

When your a big market team like The Cubs, this works out well, because you can go out and sign a superstar or 2 and use these guys to build around. Of course it would be nice to be like the Yankees and Red Sox when you can sign and trade for stars and produce your own as well.