2011 Chicago Bulls Playoff Thread (5/26 7:30pm CST - TNT)

[UMFan83]

You're seriously underestimating Hansbrough and NBA players in general. Almost every played in the NBA would hit 70% of "long" 2-point jumpers in an open gym. Those guys are really, really good -- even the non-shooters.

 

Now, I doubt Hansbrough hits seven of 10 again this series, but it's not like most of his shots were really contested. The Bulls are still going to win this series in five or four games, and will likely win by a whole lot tonight. However, the Pacers are better than some have given them credit for -- they were above .500 and Vogel. I also think the Bulls are a bit of a "regular season team," as they're going to struggle against better teams as they advance because they have literally one player that can get his own shot (he's a stud, no doubt, but as you advance, other teams have studs too).

 

On average, NBA teams historically make about 75% of their free throws. That is a 15-foot shot from straight on, no contesting, and every player in the league shoots and practices them constantly.

 

The best shooters in the NBA make 3's at about a 60% clip in the 3-point shootout (that's just the average make % of the winners, it's much lower if you average all contestants). Again, that's unguarded, spot up shots from the 5 highest percentage spots behind the line, and only counting the best shooter in the NBA each year.

 

The average NBA player does not make 70%+ of their 15-23 foot shots in an open gym. Tyler Hansbrough is an above-average jump-shooter, and he hit 43% of his long twos this year, making under 2 per game. He is not going to continue to hit 7+ long range shots a game, even if Boozer is playing off to prevent him from getting actual high percentage shots.

 

Yes but there is still a time limit forcing them to get into a rhythm to hit the shots. Sitting around casually shooting jumpers in a gym with no stakes changes things too. Maybe 70% is too high by 60% seems like a sustainable number for most NBA players.

[SouthSideRyan]

In game 1, Tyler Hansbrough was 7-10 outside 15 feet.

 

For his career, Tyler Hansbrough is a 43% shooter from outside 15 feet, and makes an average of under 2 per game.

 

He was also 3-9 from inside 15 feet.

Inside 15 feet, the Bulls were contesting shots more closely, and Noah/Thomas/Gibson/Asik (for a minute) were getting involved. 15-23 feet shots were mostly on Boozer only.

 

Well you can't explain away his good shooting by saying he's just not good enough, then explain away his bad shooting by giving credit to the defense. I'm relatively sure Hansbrough's been defended throughout his career inside 15 feet, not just this past game.

Edited April 18, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[tfarks]

The average NBA player does not make 70%+ of their 15-23 foot shots in an open gym.

 

Hey open gym boy, what are you talking about? The difference between a game and practice is rather high. Just watching shootarounds before the game I'd say they make at least 72% of their shots between 15-23 feet.

Edited April 18, 2011 by tfarks

[SouthSideRyan]

Yes but there is still a time limit forcing them to get into a rhythm to hit the shots. Sitting around casually shooting jumpers in a gym with no stakes changes things too. Maybe 70% is too high by 60% seems like a sustainable number for most NBA players.

 

Yeah, not that the argument means anything, but judging a shootaround 3PT shooting % by a 3 point contest seems like a terrible way to do it.

[wolf stansson]

Why are we talking about this?

 

If you leave an NBA player wide open from 10 feet, he's going to make a ton of shots. What this has to do with shoot around and warm ups, I have no idea. It's the NBA, even bums will kill you if you don't guard them. Carlos is just freaking lazy. He thinks yelling "AH!" loudly is as good as a hand in the face.

[bukie]

In game 1, Tyler Hansbrough was 7-10 outside 15 feet.

 

For his career, Tyler Hansbrough is a 43% shooter from outside 15 feet, and makes an average of under 2 per game.

 

He was also 3-9 from inside 15 feet.

Inside 15 feet, the Bulls were contesting shots more closely, and Noah/Thomas/Gibson/Asik (for a minute) were getting involved. 15-23 feet shots were mostly on Boozer only.

 

Well you can't explain away his good shooting by saying he's just not good enough, then explain away his bad shooting by giving credit to the defense. I'm relatively sure Hansbrough's been defended throughout his career inside 15 feet, not just this past game.

Considering the Thibodeau defensive strategy is lock down the paint, defend the 3, and allow long range jumpers (which I'm sure you're quite familiar with, watching the Celtics the past few years), the shot distribution is very in-line with what the defense typically allows, but Indiana was simply making their long-range jumpers at an unsustainable rate.

[Exile on Waveland]

You're seriously underestimating Hansbrough and NBA players in general. Almost every played in the NBA would hit 70% of "long" 2-point jumpers in an open gym. Those guys are really, really good -- even the non-shooters.

 

Now, I doubt Hansbrough hits seven of 10 again this series, but it's not like most of his shots were really contested. The Bulls are still going to win this series in five or four games, and will likely win by a whole lot tonight. However, the Pacers are better than some have given them credit for -- they were above .500 and Vogel. I also think the Bulls are a bit of a "regular season team," as they're going to struggle against better teams as they advance because they have literally one player that can get his own shot (he's a stud, no doubt, but as you advance, other teams have studs too).

 

On average, NBA teams historically make about 75% of their free throws. That is a 15-foot shot from straight on, no contesting, and every player in the league shoots and practices them constantly.

 

The best shooters in the NBA make 3's at about a 60% clip in the 3-point shootout (that's just the average make % of the winners, it's much lower if you average all contestants). Again, that's unguarded, spot up shots from the 5 highest percentage spots behind the line, and only counting the best shooter in the NBA each year.

 

The average NBA player does not make 70%+ of their 15-23 foot shots in an open gym. Tyler Hansbrough is an above-average jump-shooter, and he hit 43% of his long twos this year, making under 2 per game. He is not going to continue to hit 7+ long range shots a game, even if Boozer is playing off to prevent him from getting actual high percentage shots.

 

Free throws are shot in a game, with 15,000+ people watching in the arena, many more on TV, and with some added pressure of wanting to help your team (and, cynically, your paycheck). Free throws are ABSOLUTELY more difficult shots than open jumpers in an empty gym. Same with the 3-point contest. It's simply not comparable at all. Honestly, I can't tell if you're serious or not.

 

Having played some with average NBA players (and seen more shooting around), I believe you could not be more wrong. Those guys knock down long 3-point jumpers like they're nothing. So do good college players. In empty gyms, they ostensibly don't miss.

[Exile on Waveland]

In game 1, Tyler Hansbrough was 7-10 outside 15 feet.

 

For his career, Tyler Hansbrough is a 43% shooter from outside 15 feet, and makes an average of under 2 per game.

 

He was also 3-9 from inside 15 feet.

Inside 15 feet, the Bulls were contesting shots more closely, and Noah/Thomas/Gibson/Asik (for a minute) were getting involved. 15-23 feet shots were mostly on Boozer only.

 

Well you can't explain away his good shooting by saying he's just not good enough, then explain away his bad shooting by giving credit to the defense. I'm relatively sure Hansbrough's been defended throughout his career inside 15 feet, not just this past game.

Considering the Thibodeau defensive strategy is lock down the paint, defend the 3, and allow long range jumpers (which I'm sure you're quite familiar with, watching the Celtics the past few years), the shot distribution is very in-line with what the defense typically allows, but Indiana was simply making their long-range jumpers at an unsustainable rate.

 

Sure, I don't think anyone is arguing against that. But you demagouged the issue by saying Hansbrough wouldn't hit those shots in an empty gym in practice. That's absurd.

[SouthSideRyan]

In game 1, Tyler Hansbrough was 7-10 outside 15 feet.

 

For his career, Tyler Hansbrough is a 43% shooter from outside 15 feet, and makes an average of under 2 per game.

 

He was also 3-9 from inside 15 feet.

Inside 15 feet, the Bulls were contesting shots more closely, and Noah/Thomas/Gibson/Asik (for a minute) were getting involved. 15-23 feet shots were mostly on Boozer only.

 

Well you can't explain away his good shooting by saying he's just not good enough, then explain away his bad shooting by giving credit to the defense. I'm relatively sure Hansbrough's been defended throughout his career inside 15 feet, not just this past game.

Considering the Thibodeau defensive strategy is lock down the paint, defend the 3, and allow long range jumpers (which I'm sure you're quite familiar with, watching the Celtics the past few years), the shot distribution is very in-line with what the defense typically allows, but Indiana was simply making their long-range jumpers at an unsustainable rate.

 

Where do you get the distribution breakdowns? I'm pretty dubious on the thought that shooting 33% from inside 15 feet is normal.

[bukie]

Why are we talking about this?

 

If you leave an NBA player wide open from 10 feet, he's going to make a ton of shots. What this has to do with shoot around and warm ups, I have no idea. It's the NBA, even bums will kill you if you don't guard them. Carlos is just freaking lazy. He thinks yelling "AH!" loudly is as good as a hand in the face.

There's a big difference between allowing open 10 footers and open 22 footers. If the defense is keyed on making the opponent beat you with 15-23 footers, which is the lowest-percentage shot in the NBA, and the opponent makes 60+% of them, it's still not a bad strategy. Yes, Boozer can play him closer, but I'd still rather see Hansbrough taking long jumpers all day than Hansbrough driving by Boozer all day and getting actual high-percentage shots.

[CubColtPacer]

In game 1, Tyler Hansbrough was 7-10 outside 15 feet.

 

For his career, Tyler Hansbrough is a 43% shooter from outside 15 feet, and makes an average of under 2 per game.

 

He was also 3-9 from inside 15 feet.

Inside 15 feet, the Bulls were contesting shots more closely, and Noah/Thomas/Gibson/Asik (for a minute) were getting involved. 15-23 feet shots were mostly on Boozer only.

 

EDIT: 2-8 at the rim, so he only took one shot from 3-15 feet?

 

That would seem right to me. He's only going to shoot from 3-15 feet on either a post up or a loose ball situation. He only posted up once or twice during the game (and only shot once) and didn't have any loose ball situations that weren't potential tip ins. If he drives he is going to either pass the ball or try to get all the way to the rim. He isn't the type who can stop and shoot a short jumper very often.

[SouthSideRyan]

2-8 at the rim seems as unsustainable as 7-10 from 15-23 feet. He only had 1 shot blocked on the day, so it wasn't like he was McRoberts down there. I remember at least a couple bunnies that he just whiffed on.

[tfarks]

Why are we talking about this?

 

If you leave an NBA player wide open from 10 feet, he's going to make a ton of shots. What this has to do with shoot around and warm ups, I have no idea. It's the NBA, even bums will kill you if you don't guard them. Carlos is just freaking lazy. He thinks yelling "AH!" loudly is as good as a hand in the face.

There's a big difference between allowing open 10 footers and open 22 footers. If the defense is keyed on making the opponent beat you with 15-23 footers, which is the lowest-percentage shot in the NBA, and the opponent makes 60+% of them, it's still not a bad strategy. Yes, Boozer can play him closer, but I'd still rather see Hansbrough taking long jumpers all day than Hansbrough driving by Boozer all day and getting actual high-percentage shots.

 

Watching Hansbrough play all season his best options are to shoot the open midrange jumper or drive in and get fouled. If you want to consistently let him keep taking the open jumpers when he's making them then you might want to rethink that strategy.

He has trouble with length closer to the paint. Play tight so he can't get off the jumper and don't foul him when you're contesting his shot in the lane.

[bukie]

Where do you get the distribution breakdowns? I'm pretty dubious on the thought that shooting 33% from inside 15 feet is normal.

http://hoopdata.com/oteamshotlocs.aspx

For the season, Bulls opponents average 3.5 makes and 10.2 shots from 3-9 feet per game, for a 33.9% clip.

 

From 15-23 feet, Bulls opponents average 8.5 makes and 22.8 shots per game, for a 37.1% clip.

[SouthSideRyan]

Basically, IMO, Hansbrough isn't the issue that should make you feel comfortable, the 3 point shooting was the issue, especially with (as bukie mentioned) the Bulls top notch 3 point defense throughout the season.

 

Unless you can attribute it to Rose slacking on the defensive end due to being the entire offense or Deng from playing 55 minutes/game on the season, there's really no reason for Indiana to shoot like that again.

[tfarks]

I'm sure hoping his shooting percentages normalize is a smart defensive strategy in your book but it usually doesn't work out over a short stretch of games. i.e. Austin Croshere

[Banedon]

I'm sure hoping his shooting percentages normalize is a smart defensive strategy in your book but it usually doesn't work out over a short stretch of games. i.e. Austin Croshere

 

It's a lot easier to use that as a strategy following a win, and with game 2 at home than it would be if they'd lost that first game.

[CubColtPacer]

Just FYI, the Pacers definitely implied that they were not too happy with how they were officiated regarding Rose. They felt that on some of the plays that they're jumping straight up and that as Rose is rising he's jumping into them which should get a no call.

[UMFan83]

2-8 at the rim seems as unsustainable as 7-10 from 15-23 feet. He only had 1 shot blocked on the day, so it wasn't like he was McRoberts down there. I remember at least a couple bunnies that he just whiffed on.

 

It's a lot more likely he goes 2-8 at the rim again, than 7-10 from 15-23 feet.

 

He did have a couple of point blank misses inside that I remember. One he beat Boozer on the baseline and ran in and shot a leaner which went around the rim and out. 2 inches the other direction and its a bucket. Normally he's hitting that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Just FYI, the Pacers definitely implied that they were not too happy with how they were officiated regarding Rose. They felt that on some of the plays that they're jumping straight up and that as Rose is rising he's jumping into them which should get a no call.

 

Well, Andy watched the game, and said not one of his FTs came on a phantom foul. So I don't know what to tell you.

[Tyrant]

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRyxPTirEagUcySsOzpJom94S1thcLBjLoQXytGNylj5fRj3A-8iA&t=1

[bukie]

Just FYI, the Pacers definitely implied that they were not too happy with how they were officiated regarding Rose. They felt that on some of the plays that they're jumping straight up and that as Rose is rising he's jumping into them which should get a no call.

There may have been 1-2 like that, but the vast majority of the time Rose drove the lane, the Pacers' bigs were fouling hard to make sure he didn't get the shot in. Rose is historically extremely good at avoiding contact when the opponent doesn't jump into him or hack at him.

 

The one notable play I can remember is near the end when Rose got the and-1, when Hibbert initially was set for the charge, Rose jumped around him to the right, and Hibbert proceeded to slide into him with the body. Even though his hands were straight up, he still slid into him, and it was a pretty clear foul.

[tfarks]

Just FYI, the Pacers definitely implied that they were not too happy with how they were officiated regarding Rose. They felt that on some of the plays that they're jumping straight up and that as Rose is rising he's jumping into them which should get a no call.

 

Well, Andy watched the game, and said not one of his FTs came on a phantom foul. So I don't know what to tell you.

 

There's no such thing as superstar calls ask David Stern.

[SouthSideRyan]

2-8 at the rim seems as unsustainable as 7-10 from 15-23 feet. He only had 1 shot blocked on the day, so it wasn't like he was McRoberts down there. I remember at least a couple bunnies that he just whiffed on.

 

It's a lot more likely he goes 2-8 at the rim again, than 7-10 from 15-23 feet.

 

 

It's not a perfect way to look at it because you're assuming Hansbrough shoots at an average rate; but there's a greater difference between Hansbrough's FG% at the rim and the Bulls D at the rim than there is between his FG% from 15-23 compared to the Bulls D. (What a horrendous run-on sentence)

Edited April 18, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[SouthSideRyan]

Oh, and thanks for the stats bukie, I'm going to kill a lot of time on there.