Francisco Liriano available?

[davell]

Just read this could be true, over at MLBTR. Hey, we need a lefty in the rotation, right? I'll fall into that line of thinking if it means he's a mid-season target for us. That said, I don't see how we could deal for him without crippling our system basically at this point.

[The Logan]

He's more valuable than Pujols

 

[/facetiousness]

 

Seriously though, we probably can't afford him. His year last year was better than advertised when you look at advanced metrics, which I doubt most GM's put a lot of stock into when discussing the merits of a player during trade discussions. Maybe he wouldn't cost THAT much based on that plus his injury history, but I don't think the Twins are that dumb.

 

They'd probably start the talks by asking for Jackson, or Cashner, etc. As much as I want him on the Cubs it's probably not worth the loss in farm system depth if Ricketts is heading down a path of lower payroll

[davell]

I don't necessarily think it's a longterm payroll decline though. If they do it the right way, they're going to build the system up more, then use some of that newly added talent to acquire guys just like this, if you ask me. If he's wanting a 3/39 extension, I don't think that's all that unreasonable for a guy who just turned 27. It'd buy out 2 post arb years in the process and you're not getting into the mid or upper 30 seasons which are the scary ones.

 

To me, this is the kind of pitcher we need to be looking at, due to the fact we're going to be losing Z in 2 seasons and Demp in the same time period. You'd be replacing their contracts with a younger guy who's just as good(maybe better if he gets back to his previous form) and at a cheaper cost as well.

[mookie]

Yes. I would be all for getting him, but he will cripple our system. It doesn't really bother me, but I am sure some around here see thing differently.

 

If we could land Liriano right now, we are instantly the favorites in the NL Central.

 

Liriano

Garza

Z

Dempster

Whoever

 

Not gonna happen, but so awesome.

[sneakypower]

damn, i really wonder how much we would have had to add to the Garza package to instead make Liriano a Cub

 

i'd have thrown Vitters on top of it all and it would have been well worth it

[davell]

I don't know that he'd cost more than Garza personally. In fact, i bet it'd be less. You'd have him for one less year and there's still an injury stigma over him, while Garza has the exact opposite stigma, as he's considered a workhorse.

 

The key to making a deal like this, is it WILL kill your system right now. But, if the Cubs go out and spend big in this draft, the system probably doesn't skip a beat. Which is why spending big on overslots is so important. The bigger talent influx you have on a given year, gives you that much more flexibility to make these type of deals.

 

You can lose a McNutt type, if you just drafted 2-3 guys that all profile to be potentially the same type prospect. Which is possible, because 1) This upcoming draft has tons of talent and 2) even if it didn't, some of the better guys fall anyway, due to their signing demands.

 

I didn't like the Garza trade from a talent standpoint of what we gave up, but the Cubs basically did this with that trade. They gave up Archer because they thought McNutt was going to be just as good if not better and you add a proven guy to your major league team as well.

[sneakypower]

prospects don't mean much to me when they're traded for young studs

 

Liriano's just 27, (our) Chris Carpenter, for example, is just two years younger, and Casher just three

[Backtobanks]

If the Cubs could convince Samardzija to waive his NTC, including him in a package would save $3 million.

[Post Count Padder]

If the Cubs could convince Samardzija to waive his NTC, including him in a package would save $3 million.

I wish they dealt him already, in a package for a good player. His name and potential probably still carry weight, but his stock has fallen.

[davell]

I think we were probably MUCH higher on Samardzija than almost anyone else when we drafted him and gave him that kind of deal. And he's done literally next to nothing to show anyone else why we did that. And putting a salary dump into a trade with the Twins for a really good player wouldn't work on any level. They're maxed out money wise as it is most likely.

 

I look at Liriano more as a guy for the deadline, if the Twins fall out of it, or over the offseason, where they're trying to get as much as possible before he walks. I think that they're definitely contenders this year, so trading him doesn't make a whole lot of sense right now, because you're not going to replace his production with the return. But, he should be seriously on our radar, if they do fall out of it.

[Guest]

prospects don't mean much to me when they're traded for young studs

 

Liriano's just 27, (our) Chris Carpenter, for example, is just two years younger, and Casher just three

 

Yeah, if he's as reasonable as 3/39 with an extension request, then there's no reason not to go hard after him. Start with Wells + McNutt and go from there.

[The Logan]

I know I've posted this elsewhere before, but Liriano's season last year was great despite getting hit with some bad luck.

 

His BABIP was .331, which was the 2nd highest amongst qualified starters behind James Shields (.341). His FIP was 2.66, good for 3rd best in the majors behind Josh Johnson and Cliff Lee. His xFIP was 3.06, 2nd best in the majors behind Roy Halladay.

 

I know there's some discrepancies between BR's WAR and Fangraph's WAR numbers (BR lists Liriano's WAR as significantly lower than FG's), but Fangraphs has him listed a 6.0 WAR pitcher last season, which would make him the 8th most valuable pitcher in the majors. 4th best in the AL.

 

The Dollars metric valued him a $24 million last season, even though he got out ERA'd by 36 other pitchers in the majors (more proof ERA is silly to judge a pitcher solely on at this point)

 

Point is, Liriano was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season but his standard overall numbers don't necessarily suggest that, which combined with his injury history might make him come at a much lesser cost than what he's actually worth. He's not going to be cheap by any stretch of the imagination, but I think based on his bad luck and a general perception that he had a solid comeback year (but not a best in the league quality year like the metrics suggest) would mean he won't cost as much as he actually should.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I would trade Cashner for Liriano in a heartbeat. The Cubs have a lot of draft picks coming up and if a lot of minor league talent can be found internationally I would trade just about any 3 players for Liriano, prefferring to keep Jackson if possible. Wells seems like a Twins type of pitcher could he be of interest?

 

Garza

Liriano :good:

Zambrano

Dempster

Wells/Silva/Colemn/Whocares

 

That would be a fun rotation to watch.

[Northside Blues]

damn, i really wonder how much we would have had to add to the Garza package to instead make Liriano a Cub

 

i'd have thrown Vitters on top of it all and it would have been well worth it

 

 

Risky. As others have said, Liriano is probably more of a health risk than Garza. He's already had two lost seasons to injuries. Im not sure how much I'd prefer Liriano to Garza. He's better when he's healthy, but how long is that going to be? I'd probably rather keep Garza and the one or two prospects we'd save. We've already got enough health risks in the rotation and on the rest of the team. Also, the monetary price of Liriano will skyrocket if we sign him long term, and if he does get hurt, that's just a huge -15m on our payroll.

[Northside Blues]

prospects don't mean much to me when they're traded for young studs

 

Liriano's just 27, (our) Chris Carpenter, for example, is just two years younger, and Casher just three

 

 

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[The Logan]

damn, i really wonder how much we would have had to add to the Garza package to instead make Liriano a Cub

 

i'd have thrown Vitters on top of it all and it would have been well worth it

 

 

Risky. As others have said, Liriano is probably more of a health risk than Garza. He's already had two lost seasons to injuries. Im not sure how much I'd prefer Liriano to Garza. He's better when he's healthy, but how long is that going to be? I'd probably rather keep Garza and the one or two prospects we'd save. We've already got enough health risks in the rotation and on the rest of the team. Also, the monetary price of Liriano will skyrocket if we sign him long term, and if he does get hurt, that's just a huge -15m on our payroll.

 

Liriano's health issues are kind of an illusion. He had Tommy John surgery after he got injured his rookie season, had his next year off, and when he came back he was not the samep itcher. IIRC scouts said he looked like he was scared to throw his slider, which is his bread and butter, because he was scared he was gonna hurt himself again. Because of that he performed poorly and spent time in between the minors and the majors. He only missed one season due to injury, all the other time he missed he was spending in the minors getting his mechanics back. Also when he finally got them back the Twins refused to call him up for financial reasons to the point where Liriano and his agent were attempting to file a complaint or something within the players union against the team for holding him back IIRC.

 

He's technically been (more or less) healthy for the last 3 years, it just looks like he hasn't been because he was in the minors for the majority of the 2008 season. Last year was his first year he was able to put it all back together.

 

Tommy John surgery doesn't necessarily make you a further injury risk, it actually makes your arm stronger. His issues two seasons ago weren't related to his arm, if I'm not mistaken

[StarlinOnYou]

Cashner + Chris Carpenter + Kyler Burke

 

Liriano

Garza

Zambrano

Dempster

Wells

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Cashner + Chris Carpenter + Kyler Burke

 

Liriano

Garza

Zambrano

Dempster

Wells

 

That deal would not net Liriano... If he is truly out there the Twins could net Montero from the Yankees. It will take 3 top prospects plus a 4th decent prospect minimum.

[The Logan]

Cashner + Chris Carpenter + Kyler Burke

 

Liriano

Garza

Zambrano

Dempster

Wells

 

That deal would not net Liriano... If he is truly out there the Twins could net Montero from the Yankees. It will take 3 top prospects plus a 4th decent prospect minimum.

 

I'm not 100% sure on that. Liriano is great, but he's had one successful and full season since his rookie year. He should cost at least one top prospect, even 2 top prospects if they want to get stingy, but based on his history he shouldn't cost more than that in terms of top flight talent. Cashner & Carpenter are two of our top young pitchers which I would imagine they'd want in return. Cashner could contribute immediately and possibly replace Liriano for the Twins while Carpenter is a good arm to boost their already respectable farm system.

 

I don't know. Cashner, Carpenter, and maybe another mid-level prospect (not sure Burke could get it done) might be a good starting point. I think you have to keep McNutt after trading away Archer though.

 

That being said, Cashner has a lot of realistic upside that could help us out immediately and costs us next to nothing that we'd be giving up for Liriano. So, pick your poison

[Northside Blues]

Tommy John surgery doesn't necessarily make you a further injury risk, it actually makes your arm stronger. His issues two seasons ago weren't related to his arm, if I'm not mistaken

 

Liriano has had a history of shoulder problems and has an "inverted W" (if you believe in that, I don't unless said pitcher has shoulder issues). One of the seasons I was talking about was TJS, the other was prior to his trade to the Twins when he was in the minors. He was damaged goods when the Twins acquired him.

[The Logan]

Tommy John surgery doesn't necessarily make you a further injury risk, it actually makes your arm stronger. His issues two seasons ago weren't related to his arm, if I'm not mistaken

 

Liriano has had a history of shoulder problems and has an "inverted W" (if you believe in that, I don't unless said pitcher has shoulder issues). One of the seasons I was talking about was TJS, the other was prior to his trade to the Twins when he was in the minors. He was damaged goods when the Twins acquired him.

 

Touché, admittedly don't know much about his history with the Giants

[d_money]

Liriano has had a history of shoulder problems and has an "inverted W"

 

Or an "M" to others...

[The Logan]

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said Francisco Liriano (shoulder) is unlikely to return this season.

Liriano has a left posterior shoulder strain. Although the injury isn't considered serious, it's the second time he's dealt with it this year, so shutting him down just to be safe makes sense. The owner of a 4.84 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season, Liriano is arbitration-eligible this winter for the last time but might end up being trade bait if the Twins choose not to extend him

 

Hmmmmmm... I wonder how much the Twins value him now after a rocky injury filled season. At the beginning of the year he looked primed for another good season but his year this year has been pretty bad. Coupled with the fact that he's under team control for only one more year, has injury issues, and is coming off a poor season, could he be a buy low trade candidate in the offseason? I recall that the Twins were asking for a lot when discussing a deal with the Yankees earlier in the season, but surely that price has dropped substantially given his results, yeah?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I think he's a major health risk as he gets older. He's got a long injury history as it is, and I still don't buy him mechanically. He's obviously a very good pitcher with alot of raw talent, but I'd rather see someone else pay him the FA money and years.

 

CC Sabathia or CJ Wilson in FA ftw.

[The Logan]

He's not a FA, he'd be a trade candidate. The question I'm proposing is would he be worth a gamble if he didn't cost TOO much in terms of expendable players/prospects for his last year of team control in 2012?