2011 PECOTA for the Cubs is out.

[Northside Blues]

.274/.368/.474/.842 Geovany Soto

.230/.355/.469/.824 Carlos Pena

.262/.338/.391/.729 Blake DeWitt

.266/.326/.420/.746 Jeff Baker

.285/.321/.386/.707 Starlin Castro

.267/.303/.336/.639 Darwin Barney

.280/.350/.485/.835 Aramis Ramirez

.256/.363/.394/.757 Kosuke Fukudome

.264/.325/.479/.804 Alfonso Soriano

.283/.341/.428/.769 Marlon Byrd

.253/.299/.430/.729 Tyler Colvin

 

Let's regress everyone to the mean ridiculously. Also, Robinson Chirinos would be third only to Soto and Ramirez with an .829 OPS.....

 

5-5 4.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP Andrew Cashner

9-8 4.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP Ryan Dempster

12-10 4.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP Matt Garza

9-10 4.71 ERA, 1.45 WHIP Randy Wells

12-11 4.32 ERA, 1.45 WHIP Carlos Zambrano

9-12 5.31 ERA, 1.49 WHIP Carlos Silva

 

Ouch, in fact the only Cubs with sub 4.00 ERAs are Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood.

 

Fun with Comparables:

 

Trey McNutt: Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Trevor Cahill

Tom Gorzelanny: Chuck Finley, Bob Rush and Dwight Gooden (yeah)

Starlin Castro: Elvis Andrus, Roberto Alomar and Alcides Escobar

Jae-Hoon Ha: Jay Johnstone, Al Kaline, Roberto Clemente (huzzah!)

Brett Jackson: Justin Upton, Adam Jones and Jordan Schafer

Geovany Soto: Josh Whitesell, Roger Maris and Johnny Bench (Whitesell has 142 career PA, Maris and Bench have a couple career HR over 142)

Josh Vitters: Ron Santo, Fernando Martinez and David Wright (still hope I guess)

 

Chris Archer has Nick Adenhart as a comp, does that mean that it gives him a higher chance of being out of baseball by 23? Tragic and sad and PECOTA uses this.

 

One of Carlos Zambrano's comps (#2 actually) is Victor Marte. Yes, the Victor Marte with 39 career innings pitched who made his debut at age 28 in 2009.

 

I know he's broke, but even if he were healthy, I can't get over the Strasburg projection of a 2.42 ERA. Yeah he's good, but no one's midline projection is a 2.42 ERA.

 

So in conclusion, PECOTA is broke and BP can't fix it.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, that's barftastic.

 

PETCOTAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

[bleedingblue]

The fact that Zambrano has an era over 4.00 should indicate that PECOTA is broke.

[UMFan83]

If all those numbers came true, the Cubs are going to be fighting to avoid 100 losses with their bottom 5 offense and bottom 10 rotation.

[Tyrant]

Also, Robinson Chirinos would be third only to Soto and Ramirez with an .829 OPS.....

 

That's dumb.

[Guest]

Thankfully, BP stopped being useful years ago.

[Clem Fandango]

If Josh Vitters ends up anything like Ron Santo or David Wright, I'll gladly take it

[champaignchris]

The fact that Zambrano has an era over 4.00 should indicate that PECOTA is broke.

 

That's the one that stood out to me. His ERA has gone down in each of the last three seasons (as have his IP) and their projected ERA would be almost a full run more than he gave up last year. I know ERA is flawed - but still, a jump of that magnitude...

[hardcorecubfan]

When we get to the WS they will be sorry, mark my words!

 

Now I'll be praying that they aren't even close

[bleedingblue]

The fact that Zambrano has an era over 4.00 should indicate that PECOTA is broke.

 

That's the one that stood out to me. His ERA has gone down in each of the last three seasons (as have his IP) and their projected ERA would be almost a full run more than he gave up last year. I know ERA is flawed - but still, a jump of that magnitude...

 

He's only had an ERA over 4 once and that was when he pitched six games after he got called up in 2001.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Pecota's pitching projects always are way off are they not? I have yahoo fantasy baseball projections if anyone wants I can include them in this thread.

[davell]

If all those numbers came true, the Cubs are going to be fighting to avoid 100 losses with their bottom 5 offense and bottom 10 rotation.

 

 

Yeah, that's what I was thinking when I saw these numbers.

[otis89]

How does moving to the NL make Garza have worse numbers?

[TruffleShuffle]

dear nate silver, please go back to bp and help them fix pecota

[Soul]

I saw those numbers and had the same reaction as N&G:

 

barf

 

we better beat those projections or it'll be one of those "enjoy Wrigley and try to forget the team" kind of years.

[Sammy Sofa]

Of course they'll beat those projections.

[Northside Blues]

If all those numbers came true, the Cubs are going to be fighting to avoid 100 losses with their bottom 5 offense and bottom 10 rotation.

 

The offense wouldn't be terrible. There may not be any stars, but none of our regulars have a projection under a 700 OPS. League average for OPS by position players was around 745-750 last year. Even if you factor in the fillers weighting the guys down and our pitchers (relatively above average hitters for pitchers), we're still going to have a team OPS close to 715-720, which would place us just below average.

[Derwood]

This would be terrible news if PECOTA was ever right

[Guest]

Oh my. Aramis may need to learn how to bunt afterall.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Apparently these guys think that Starlin Castro morphs into Ryan Theriot.

[Guest]

Apparently these guys think that Starlin Castro morphs into Ryan Theriot.

 

Castro wasn't much better at the plate last year than a good Theriot season.

 

What made it impressive was that he did it at 20, not 28.

Edited February 8, 2011 by David

[Northside Blues]

The drop in his production would only be due to 15 points loss on his BA, that would be almost the entire difference in his SLG and OBP. If his true level is 285, what's the likelihood of him hitting 300 over 500 PAs? Probably not to improbable. Edited February 8, 2011 by Northside Blues

[Guest]

Why does PECOTA waste time with W-L?

[Northside Blues]

Fantasy Baseball!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Why does PECOTA waste time with W-L?

How else will we know how good they're guessing a pitcher will be?