Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[SouthSideRyan]

I hate the idea of taking a guy who's an elite hitter at one end of the defensive spectrum and moving him to the other end so as to make him average.

[NOLA]

I hate the idea of taking a guy who's an elite hitter at one end of the defensive spectrum and moving him to the other end so as to make him average.

 

I agree, but I wonder what playing 1st base over a season would do for Soto at the plate.

[italianocubsfan7]

Hendry said today that "Castillo will probably start sooner than later"

 

I wonder if moving Soto to first if they whiff on Pujols is an option.

 

I like this idea much better going forward, but only if we get some power in RF. I hate the idea of signing anyone to a 10 year deal, especially since it flies in the face of an actual organizational philosophy we seem to have adopted. With the money saved we could find some pop in right field and still have money and flexibility to get a CJ Wilson, and still have the ability to resign Starlin and replace Aramis in the future. I like this lineup and it still gives us options in a couple of years:

 

SS Castro

2B Barney/Dewitt/Baker

RF Sizemore

3B Ramirez

1B Soto

LF Soriano

CF Byrd/Jackson

C Castillo

 

SP Z

SP CJ Wilson

SP Garza

SP Dempster

SP Wells/Cashner

 

RP Marmol

 

CJ Wilson is definitely someone the Cubs could snag if available next winter. I don't know about Soto at 1B, and even Castillo at C. Sure, Castillo hit about .650 in ST, but he needs some more playing time this year if he's going to go full time next year — especially behind the plate.

 

Hopefully Barney has locked up the 2B position. Him and Castro are making a good combo so far this season.

 

And... how does Sizemore get to the Cubs? Is he a free agent after this year? Isn't he like 33?

[dew1679666265]

CJ Wilson is definitely someone the Cubs could snag if available next winter.

 

I'd stay away from starting pitching unless it's an elite guy. If Dempster comes back next year we'd have to either trade Z (and eat a bunch of cash) or not start one of Cashner or Wells. We've got enough other holes to fill to spend money on a luxury item like a good but not great SP.

 

And... how does Sizemore get to the Cubs? Is he a free agent after this year? Isn't he like 33?

 

The Indians have an $8.5 mil club option on Sizemore for the 2012 season. If he produces anything like he currently is (.974 OPS), I don't see any way they don't pick it up. If he has more injury issues or if his production falls off a cliff, he might come available. And he'll turn 29 in August, he's been in the majors since he was 21.

[TruffleShuffle]

And... how does Sizemore get to the Cubs? Is he a free agent after this year? Isn't he like 33?

 

is 28 "like 33"? if so then yes.

[Sammy Sofa]

Hopefully Barney has locked up the 2B position.

 

Why? Barney's been a pleasant surprise, but if the Cubs can make an impact move I'd like to think they'd hold back because of Darwin Barney. How about signing Reyes and moving either him or Castro over to 2B?

[Northside Blues]

I know it's early but Albert Pujols has fallen off quite a bit this year. Maybe he's really 35 or older and it's a sign of a storm of worry ahead.

 

is that the right color?

[d_money]

Hopefully Barney has locked up the 2B position.

 

Why? Barney's been a pleasant surprise, but if the Cubs can make an impact move I'd like to think they'd hold back because of Darwin Barney. How about signing Reyes and moving either him or Castro over to 2B?

 

2012: Sign Reyes for SS, move Castro to 3rd, Darwin at 2nd, Fielder at 1B. Sign me up.

[dew1679666265]

Hopefully Barney has locked up the 2B position.

 

Why? Barney's been a pleasant surprise, but if the Cubs can make an impact move I'd like to think they'd hold back because of Darwin Barney. How about signing Reyes and moving either him or Castro over to 2B?

 

2012: Sign Reyes for SS, move Castro to 3rd, Darwin at 2nd, Fielder at 1B. Sign me up.

 

I love Castro, but that would be a horribly light-hitting infield.

[NOLA]

And... how does Sizemore get to the Cubs? Is he a free agent after this year? Isn't he like 33?

 

The Indians have an $8.5 mil club option on Sizemore for the 2012 season. If he produces anything like he currently is (.974 OPS), I don't see any way they don't pick it up. If he has more injury issues or if his production falls off a cliff, he might come available. And he'll turn 29 in August, he's been in the majors since he was 21.

 

Ah, I thought it was his option. Still, that's just an example of someone who could give us some RBIs out of RF.

 

The more I think about the different options this team has going forward after shedding some payroll, the more I hate the idea another albatross contract. This runs contrary to what we're doing as an organization right now. Considering production we could get for that kind of commitment in years and money, the reward does not outweigh the risk IMO. I just have visions of some really bad teams later this decade, and fans booing a rapidly declining Pujols with another 5 years on his deal. No thanks.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's Pujols.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's Pujols.

 

And he's going to turn 32 this offseason while looking for a massive deal, possibly 10 years long. I have trouble believing that doesn't make more people at least pause and think a little bit before getting out the spray charts.

 

If you do it, you better be prepared to add a few other pieces and go for it all-out in the next 3-5 years.

[davell]

It's all about having some solid cheap production to go along with a huge contract like Pujols is going to command. The Cubs have Castro, which is so much of a positive, it's not even worth talking about. If Barney keeps this up, he's a bigtime asset as well. It's one reason I really want to see Brett soon. If he can post a the types of seasons it appears he's capable of, we're set up great to add a Pujols or Fielder.

 

The key for me though, is we ALSO need a bigtime starting pitcher to go along with Garza. Z is what he is and we only have him for another year after this one, same with Dempster. And I don't really want either of them back. If we project Garza, Wells, and one of Cashner or McNutt(hopefully both, possibly none, but pitching is too volatile to truly predict a couple years down the road) we'll have 1-2 spots to fill, with the ability money-wise to sign a difference maker there as well. And IF, and it's a big IF, one or both of Cashner/McNutt become frontline guys, we'd be looking like a true WS contender with a couple of additions like I just mentioned.

[dew1679666265]

The more I think about the different options this team has going forward after shedding some payroll, the more I hate the idea another albatross contract. This runs contrary to what we're doing as an organization right now. Considering production we could get for that kind of commitment in years and money, the reward does not outweigh the risk IMO. I just have visions of some really bad teams later this decade, and fans booing a rapidly declining Pujols with another 5 years on his deal. No thanks.

 

Pujols has all the attributes you look for in a player who can be productive through his mid-late 30s and, perhaps, even into his 40s. He's in good shape, is a hard worker off the field, has a very patient approach at the plate, good quick hands and is athletic but doesn't rely on speed and athleticism for his production. He's probably not going to be the best player in baseball throughout a 10 year contract, but he can afford to decline some and still be a very productive player.

 

Pujols averaged 8.0 WAR per season from 2001-2010 - the next closest player to him was ARod with a 7.0 WAR. After that, you had Lance Berkman at 5.3. It's a pretty safe bet he'll stay in that 7-8 win range over the next 2-3 years at least and then even if he drops to, say, 6 wins per season we're still just paying him $5 million per win. Then you factor in the huge amounts of Pujols jerseys and T-shirts the team will sell, the increase in ticket sales just to see Albert Pujols play and the increase in ratings as fans turn to the Cubs to see the best player in baseball. Plus any postseason success we have (especially World Series rings) in large part because of his production and Pujols will be well worth the mega-contract he'll get.

 

For almost any other player I'd say a 10/300 type contract would be ridiculous, but Pujols' value both on and off the field and likelihood to stay great to fantastic for at least half the contract make him the rarest of exceptions. He'll drop off at some point, sure, but expecting him to be so bad that he'll get boo'd at 36 is undervaluing his production, I think.

[dew1679666265]

It's Pujols.

 

And he's going to turn 32 this offseason while looking for a massive deal, possibly 10 years long. I have trouble believing that doesn't make more people at least pause and think a little bit before getting out the spray charts.

 

If you do it, you better be prepared to add a few other pieces and go for it all-out in the next 3-5 years.

 

The Cubs are in a very good position to add a Pujols-esque contract right now. Just two players signed beyond 2012 to significant money (Soriano and Z - if his option is picked up) and a farm system with not much star power but a lot of quality depth nearly ML ready. We don't have a lot of big contracts weighing us down and can fill a lot of holes cheaply through the minors. If Ricketts were to slash payroll considerably that would change my view, but all indications are it'll stay right around its current level, which leaves us over $100 million to fill the rest of the roster spots - more payroll space than a lot of teams have period.

 

I agree if we sign Pujols we need to make every effort to win immediately that we can, but we don't need to go into desperation mode either.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

With the team on the field now, adding Pujols is paying a lot for wins 79 through 85. If you are going to do it, I think you need to be willing to pay for the next 5-7 wins worth of marginal talent over what we have. I'm not an expert on our farm system, but I get the impression most of it isn't ready to step in and be major-league average in the next couple seasons.

[NOLA]

It's all about having some solid cheap production to go along with a huge contract like Pujols is going to command. The Cubs have Castro, which is so much of a positive, it's not even worth talking about. If Barney keeps this up, he's a bigtime asset as well. It's one reason I really want to see Brett soon. If he can post a the types of seasons it appears he's capable of, we're set up great to add a Pujols or Fielder.

 

The key for me though, is we ALSO need a bigtime starting pitcher to go along with Garza. Z is what he is and we only have him for another year after this one, same with Dempster. And I don't really want either of them back. If we project Garza, Wells, and one of Cashner or McNutt(hopefully both, possibly none, but pitching is too volatile to truly predict a couple years down the road) we'll have 1-2 spots to fill, with the ability money-wise to sign a difference maker there as well. And IF, and it's a big IF, one or both of Cashner/McNutt become frontline guys, we'd be looking like a true WS contender with a couple of additions like I just mentioned.

 

I can see this, and if the Cubs signed Pujols and won a World Title then automatically it was worth it. I just think the margin for error is tiny when you make a commitment like this.

If we believe that this team with Pujols has a GREAT shot to win a title in the next few years then it should be done. If not, then we will be seriously burdened trying to build a team for the next several years. There might be better options at a better price down the road after we mature as an organization and/or add some talent.

Edited May 15, 2011 by NOLA

[NOLA]

With the team on the field now, adding Pujols is paying a lot for wins 79 through 85. If you are going to do it, I think you need to be willing to pay for the next 5-7 wins worth of marginal talent over what we have. I'm not an expert on our farm system, but I get the impression most of it isn't ready to step in and be major-league average in the next couple seasons.

 

What he said.

[Guest]

When you have a 130-140M payroll, allocating 30M of it towards one of the 5-10 best players to ever pick up a bat is not a bad investment.

[NOLA]

I was just explaining to my girlfriend why I thought the Cubs shouldn't sign Pujols at that contract. She suggested it was like us trying to but this massive house we love in a really expensive neighborhood. We then couldn't afford to buy furniture to put in it and we'd be paying for it forever. She rocks.

[dew1679666265]

When you have a 130-140M payroll, allocating 30M of it towards one of the 5-10 best players to ever pick up a bat is not a bad investment.

 

Exactly. If we were a $100 million payroll team, I might think differently. But after signing Pujols we'll have $100+ million still to spend on the rest of the team and that's not accounting for any payroll boosts Ricketts may favor in the future - which Pujols' revenue would make more likely.

[dew1679666265]

I was just explaining to my girlfriend why I thought the Cubs shouldn't sign Pujols at that contract. She suggested it was like us trying to but this massive house we love in a really expensive neighborhood. We then couldn't afford to buy furniture to put in it and we'd be paying for it forever. She rocks.

 

The analogy would fit the Royals much better than the Cubs. The Cubs would have plenty of money left to go get the furniture as long as they spent with some level of intelligence. Plus they're about to fill at least a couple rooms with really cheap but nice furniture soon.

[Guest]

With the team on the field now, adding Pujols is paying a lot for wins 79 through 85. If you are going to do it, I think you need to be willing to pay for the next 5-7 wins worth of marginal talent over what we have. I'm not an expert on our farm system, but I get the impression most of it isn't ready to step in and be major-league average in the next couple seasons.

 

Given the injuries and performance thus far, you can just as easily say it's wins 83 through 88 or something like that. And those marginal wins above .500 are the most valuable. Also, BA's top 5 prospects in the system(Jackson, McNutt, Jackson, Carpenter, Vitters) are all at AA or AAA, and none of them have their position blocked by a long term guy on the MLB roster.

 

 

I'd like to see Pujols kick it in gear soon to assuage some lingering doubts, but if there was ever a player worthy of making that gamble with, it's him. Adding Pujols and making a smart decision with a rotation slot and 3B could make the team a NL Central favorite quite reasonably.

[NOLA]

I was just explaining to my girlfriend why I thought the Cubs shouldn't sign Pujols at that contract. She suggested it was like us trying to but this massive house we love in a really expensive neighborhood. We then couldn't afford to buy furniture to put in it and we'd be paying for it forever. She rocks.

 

The analogy would fit the Royals much better than the Cubs. The Cubs would have plenty of money left to go get the furniture as long as they spent with some level of intelligence. Plus they're about to fill at least a couple rooms with really cheap but nice furniture soon.

 

We've invested wisely the last few years, and we're almost done paying off some debt. We're not ready to commit a huge chunk of our budget into a home whose value will absolutely decline down the road. And then there's the volatile housing market...

Nevermind, I'll quit now.

[dew1679666265]

We've invested wisely the last few years, and we're almost done paying off some debt. We're not ready to commit a huge chunk of our budget into a home whose value will absolutely decline down the road. And then there's the volatile housing market...

Nevermind, I'll quit now.

 

The problem with waiting for the exact perfect free agent is that free agent doesn't exist. If you sit around and pass on each major free agent because there are some flaws or questions, you'll never make a big free agent signing and you'll probably never win a World Series.

 

The Cubs are in a position right now where we have some good, young major league talent and we have a ton of prospects on their way up who look like good major leaguers. However, we have no real starpower in the minors or on the team. The potential is there for a very good supporting cast, but no core for that cast to support. We also don't have much money committed beyond 2012 and the third highest payroll in the MLB. Given all of that, one of the best players to ever play the game may just hit the open market this offseason and would give us that core player we don't have in the system. If we pass on Pujols and Fielder in the hopes that the perfect free agent falls in our lap, we'll see a lot more of the type seasons we saw in the 2000s (good teams that weren't great because they lacked a great player) in the coming years.

 

Signing Pujols is a gamble, but sometimes you have to take gambles to win championships and if I'm going to take a gamble, I want to take one on the best player in the game.