Is Zambrano Back?

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a bit overly-aggressive to say his upside is what he's doing now??

[Little Slide Rooter]

I still don't get how he's show yet again that his upside far outweighs any perceived downside. Opinion or not, I really don't see how that can be considered true at all. His upside isn't all that high. His downside is deep.

 

His upside is a mid 3 ERA pitcher with plus batting and baserunning. How that not all that high?? His downside is season lost to injury, like every other pitcher.

 

He's already there, so it's not an upside. It's what he's been. And that downside is huge.

 

Wait, what?

 

[expletive], it's another Jersey semantics trap.

 

"Upside" means he can easily be a useful pitcher, and there's no reason that the Cubs "need" to trade him. We're not talking a Carlos Silva-type mess or disaster here. People tend to talk about him like just because he can't live up to making ace money that he's a bust and the Cubs have to cut ties, and that's obviously not the case. Unless the Cubs are able to shake a very clear pattern of underselling players that they smear, I think he holds much more value to them next year actually starting for them than being traded to another team.

 

This. Granted, hes being over paid, but your not going to find another team to pick up enough of his salary to make it worth its while to dump and ace caliber pitcher. Even is he isnt a traditional ace, hes still a hell of a pitcher, and if the Cubs are going to be paying him even half of his salary, clearly, the moneys better spent if hes doing it as a Cub than a Met or Dodger or whatever. And who knows, maybe he has really figures things out and the Zambrano weve seen over the past 2 months is closer to what we can expect for next year.

[CubColtPacer]

It's a bit overly-aggressive to say his upside is what he's doing now??

 

I think he was saying a return to an ERA around 3 is unlikely not an ERA anywhere in the 3's.

 

Doesn't WAR not include Zambrano's contributions with the bat though?

[SouthSideRyan]

3.21 ERA as a starter, he's not far off.

[CubColtPacer]

3.21 ERA as a starter, he's not far off.

 

Z's ERA is probably inflated a little this year though because he was able to get his entire regular 1-2 month hot streak in but both his slightly colder periods were broken up by the move to the bullpen and the suspension before he could throw enough innings to sink his ERA like had happened in previous years. They were bad moves for the team but they probably ended up helping Z's overall numbers.

[Abe Frohman]

No matter how good Zambrano is, the fact IS that he has now won 18 games in two seasons. EIGHTEEN GAMES.

 

Let that sink in a little.

 

We have to look at the money. Zambrano will be making almost 18 million in 2011, 18 million in 2012, and 19 million in 2013. He says he is going to retire after that. He also is NOW claiming that he is the "ace." Sure, he is pitching lights-out of late - but I like Ryan Dempsters outlook on when he is going to retire, which is "when they take my uniform from me."

 

Zambrano got his contract. He deserved it. He isn't pitching or contributing like he is WORTH it, in my opinion. If he stays with the team and functions like an ACE, then good - that is what he is paid for.

 

He hasn't done that, though. EVER.

 

Sure, he is a good pitcher. Great at times. He is a liability and obviously destructive to a team. Hell, none of us know the true effect he has on the Cubs team on the field or in the clubhouse, but we know enough to know that if the Yankees come calling and show intrest and something can be worked out - that would be a GOOD THING for the Chicago Cubs. That would be one of three incredibly BAD contracts they are rid of.

 

That's what I think.

[Sammy Sofa]

No matter how good Zambrano is, the fact IS that he has now won 18 games in two seasons. EIGHTEEN GAMES.

 

Let that sink in a little.

 

I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say here, and since pitching wins and losses are arguably the most worthless stats in baseball it doesn't really work whether you're arguing for or against him being on the team.

 

Zambrano got his contract. He deserved it. He isn't pitching or contributing like he is WORTH it, in my opinion. If he stays with the team and functions like an ACE, then good - that is what he is paid for.

 

He hasn't done that, though. EVER.

 

He doesn't have to be an ace to be very, very useful as a starter for this team. Yeah, it's unfortunate if he's not consistently an "ace," but just because he's overpaid doesn't mean that they need to get rid of him. I simply do not understand this recurring train of thought that seems to act like he's either an ace or a bust. There's a gigantic middle ground.

 

Sure, he is a good pitcher. Great at times. He is a liability and obviously destructive to a team.

 

That's not obvious at all, and if it is then there's no point in even hypothesizing on a team coming along with an offer that makes trading him worth it. If he's "obviously destructive" and a liability then a team isn't going to take him unless it costs them next to nothing.

 

Hell, none of us know the true effect he has on the Cubs team on the field or in the clubhouse, but we know enough to know that if the Yankees come calling and show intrest and something can be worked out - that would be a GOOD THING for the Chicago Cubs. That would be one of three incredibly BAD contracts they are rid of.

 

That's what I think.

 

I assume Soriano's contract is one of the contracts you're talking about, but which is the third one?

 

And trading him just to trade him isn't automatically a good thing. And why is his contract "incredibly bad?" He's only signed through two more seasons, and he's not hindering the Cubs from being involved in a decent FA class.

[Abe Frohman]

When I point out the fact that the pitcher the Cubs are paying about 18 million a year ONLY WINS 9 GAMES A YEAR - you don't know what I'm saying? Basically, what I'm trying to say is that if the Cubs didn't have to pay him, it would be good. I agree that "wins and losses" aren't the most important statistic. You can't win games or do anything good when you are kicked off the team for being a jackass, though.

 

Surely, you can understand and even agree with that.

 

I don't suggest the get rid of Zambrano because he isn't "good enough." I suggest they get rid of Zambrano because he is ........ Carlos Zambrano. He can't control himself, he makes comments that prove his head is up his ass, ..... do I really need to go on?

 

Zambrano can be one of the best pitchers in the game. What are the chances he does that for the Cubs? In his favor, he seems to want to be a Cub only - but it's got to be considered that IF the Cubs could deal Z - it's not really about what they get in return, it's about the money they will save and invest in other quality pitchers that can actually HELP the Cubs win, instead of hinder them.

 

The third bad contract isn't so bad - but it is Fukudome. Fook is a good player, as is Soriano. Bad contracts, though. Especially considering that there are several in the system that can outplay them. I'm not sure who you are talking about "only being signed for 2 more years," but the Cubs will be shelling out $18m a year through 2014 to Soriano.

[bcl412]

Especially considering that there are several in the system that can outplay them.

 

I have to ask. Who?

[Sammy Sofa]

When I point out the fact that the pitcher the Cubs are paying about 18 million a year ONLY WINS 9 GAMES A YEAR - you don't know what I'm saying? Basically, what I'm trying to say is that if the Cubs didn't have to pay him, it would be good. I agree that "wins and losses" aren't the most important statistic. You can't win games or do anything good when you are kicked off the team for being a jackass, though.

 

Surely, you can understand and even agree with that.

 

It's ultimately meaningless to throw out wins totals as if they're proof that a pitcher is good or bad. When it comes to evaluating his value to the Cubs as a starter there are much better stats to both argue for or against him. The wins and losses are the result of too many factors outside of how well or how poorly the pitcher does.

 

I don't suggest the get rid of Zambrano because he isn't "good enough." I suggest they get rid of Zambrano because he is ........ Carlos Zambrano. He can't control himself, he makes comments that prove his head is up his ass, ..... do I really need to go on?

 

If he's that much of a problem then trading him is going to be a problem, and it's tremendously unlikely that the Cubs would save much money while simultaneously significantly and unnecessarily weakening the starting rotation.

 

Zambrano can be one of the best pitchers in the game. What are the chances he does that for the Cubs? In his favor, he seems to want to be a Cub only - but it's got to be considered that IF the Cubs could deal Z - it's not really about what they get in return, it's about the money they will save and invest in other quality pitchers that can actually HELP the Cubs win, instead of hinder them.

 

He doesn't have to be one of the best pitchers in the game to be of significant value as a starter for the Cubs. Again, if he's as much of a problem as you're making him out to be then it's going to be a nightmare trying to trade him. It's very unlikely that the Cubs would get much of value back or really save enough money to justify losing him. It's easily arguable that selling low on him does much more to hinder the Cubs than having him next season. The Cubs have too many questions regarding their starting rotation next season to start divesting themselves of useful starters.

 

The third bad contract isn't so bad - but it is Fukudome. Fook is a good player, as is Soriano. Bad contracts, though. Especially considering that there are several in the system that can outplay them.

 

Fukudome has an "incredibly bad" contract? It's up after next season, he's been very useful, and who are the "several players" who can outplay him?

 

The Cubs can afford to have Soriano's bad contract. Fukudome is gone after 1 more season and Zambrano's current contract only last 2 more seasons, and both players have significant value for the team during that time. They don't need to be scrambling to dump either of them.

[Abe Frohman]

Well, I guess I was speculating a little, but Tyler Colvin for one.

 

Here are some organizational guys who I would like to see how they fare....

 

Brandon Guyer - AA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=446386

NICE looking prospect. Cubs Minor League Player of the Year for 2010. Good OB% and steals bases. Hits RH and LH pitching. Had a terrible May and June, but hit over .400 in July and August.

 

Brad Snyder - AAA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=430957

Snyder is almost 30 year old lefty who had a nice OB% and good power/average numbers. Stole 19 bases and looks pretty legit, though kinda ancient.

 

Brian LaHair - AAA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=445933

He is a little old, but another AAA guy who has a nice OB% and decent power numbers. Can't hit lefties, but might be a good bench option or platoon player.

 

Tony Campana - AA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542999

ZERO power, but steals bases and.... gets on base. Hits RH and LH pitching.

[Sammy Sofa]

None of those players necessitate trading or benching Fukudome with only 1 year left on his deal. Obviously, if a team is inquiring about him and the Cubs are out of it then definitely go for it, but there's no need to be looking to be replacing him with any of those minor leaguers or Colvin next season. Most of them are old and not terribly good, which indicates their chances of out performing Fukudome are pretty poor. Campana is "only" 24, but his numbers look REALLY bad. He's had a relatively nice jump this season, but none of them are doing anything that should encourage a team to play them instead of a player like Fukudome.

 

And really, Colvin has not shown that he needs to be starting full time over Fukudome. He'll get plenty of PA's as the 4th OFer. If he can do well in that role and hopefully build on the success he had this year then he'll have an OF spot he can make his case for with Fukudome gone by the end of next season at the latest.

Edited September 30, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[Abe Frohman]

None of those players necessitate trading or benching Fukudome with only 1 year left on his deal. Obviously, if a team is inquiring about him and the Cubs are out of it then definitely go for it, but there's no need to be looking to be replacing him with any of those minor leaguers or Colvin next season.

 

So, are you saying:

 

a) If the Yankees showed interest in acquiring Carlos Zambrano outright, or even for 90% of his contract - you would be against the Cubs pulling the trigger on this?

 

b) Fukudome, (who did lose his job to Tyler Colvin this year), should play in front of Colvin (I like the platoon)? IF a team expressed interest in Fukudome, and the Cubs could trade him for prospects - you wouldn't feel better about the Cubs chances using some other players already in the organization or on the market?

 

c) Soriano, still a productive hitter, is somehow going to be worth 18 million a year for the next 4 seasons?

[Sammy Sofa]

None of those players necessitate trading or benching Fukudome with only 1 year left on his deal. Obviously, if a team is inquiring about him and the Cubs are out of it then definitely go for it, but there's no need to be looking to be replacing him with any of those minor leaguers or Colvin next season.

 

So, are you saying:

 

a) If the Yankees showed interest in acquiring Carlos Zambrano outright, or even for 90% of his contract - you would be against the Cubs pulling the trigger on this?

 

Perhaps. They don't need to trade him. If a team was offering a decent return in terms of who was being traded to the Cubs I'd be much inclined to like the deal than if it was simply a money dump. That said, I think that scenario, or one similar to it, is all but a lock not to happen.

 

b) Fukudome, (who did lose his job to Tyler Colvin this year), should play in front of Colvin (I like the platoon)?

 

Yes. Fukudome has the edge due to his defense and his OBP since Colvin's comparable OPS is based on a likely unsustainable slugging percentage. Like I said, Colvin will still get plenty of playing time as the 4th OF next year, so he'll have a ton of chances to show what he can do.

 

IF a team expressed interest in Fukudome, and the Cubs could trade him for prospects - you wouldn't feel better about the Cubs chances using some other players already in the organization or on the market?

 

Again, I don't think such a scenario is likely until closer to the trade deadline next season. Like with Zambrano, the Cubs have done too much themselves to lower Fukudome's stock and I don't trust them to be able to move him in the off-season and getting a decent return or not having to pay too much money. These idealistic hypotheticals simply aren't very realistic right now.

 

c) Soriano, still a productive hitter, is somehow going to be worth 18 million a year for the next 4 seasons?

 

Of course not. That doesn't mean you prematurely replace him with a shaky group of prospects.

[TruffleShuffle]

Well, I guess I was speculating a little, but Tyler Colvin for one.

 

Here are some organizational guys who I would like to see how they fare....

 

Brandon Guyer - AA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=446386

NICE looking prospect. Cubs Minor League Player of the Year for 2010. Good OB% and steals bases. Hits RH and LH pitching. Had a terrible May and June, but hit over .400 in July and August.

 

Brad Snyder - AAA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=430957

Snyder is almost 30 year old lefty who had a nice OB% and good power/average numbers. Stole 19 bases and looks pretty legit, though kinda ancient.

 

Brian LaHair - AAA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=445933

He is a little old, but another AAA guy who has a nice OB% and decent power numbers. Can't hit lefties, but might be a good bench option or platoon player.

 

Tony Campana - AA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542999

ZERO power, but steals bases and.... gets on base. Hits RH and LH pitching.

 

your team is going to be atrocious if you're counting on those players to give you production like fukudome or soriano.

[TruffleShuffle]

When I point out the fact that the pitcher the Cubs are paying about 18 million a year ONLY WINS 9 GAMES A YEAR - you don't know what I'm saying? Basically, what I'm trying to say is that if the Cubs didn't have to pay him, it would be good. I agree that "wins and losses" aren't the most important statistic.

 

no, wins are pretty much the worst statistic. why on earth are you basing an argument around wins?

 

last year he made 28 starts with an ERA in the high 3's and only won 9 games... something should jump out at you (like he should win more than 30% of his games when he's pitching reasonably effectively. here are a few results from last year:

 

6 IP, 3 ER, no decision

7 IP, 3 ER, loss

6.1 IP, 1 ER, ND

8 IP, 1 ER, ND

7 IP, 3 ER, ND

7 IP, 3 ER, ND

7 IP, 1 ER, ND

6 IP, 2 ER, loss

7 IP, 1 ER, ND

6 IP, 1 ER, ND

6 IP, 2 ER, ND

 

there's 11 quality starts where he had a record of 0-2. the offense didn't score many runs for him last year (2 runs or fewer in 10 of his 28 starts) and the bullpen blew too many of his games. that's why he won only 9 games.

 

your argument also conveniently ignores that he won 16 games a year from 2006-08 (two of those years the cubs could actually score runs to support him).

[SouthSideRyan]

I won't be satisfied until Abe says million dollar arm, ten cent head.

[Rob]

When I point out the fact that the pitcher the Cubs are paying about 18 million a year ONLY WINS 9 GAMES A YEAR - you don't know what I'm saying?

 

I read that as "I don't understand that wins are a team statistic, and mean almost nothing at all for individuals."

 

Carlos Zambrano was our best starter last season. And given what the rest of the rotation has done this year, he would have been #1 again this season if the front office hadn't bungled things so awfully.

[jersey cubs fan]

When I point out the fact that the pitcher the Cubs are paying about 18 million a year ONLY WINS 9 GAMES A YEAR - you don't know what I'm saying?

 

I read that as "I don't understand that wins are a team statistic, and mean almost nothing at all for individuals."

 

Carlos Zambrano was our best starter last season. And given what the rest of the rotation has done this year, he would have been #1 again this season if the front office hadn't bungled things so awfully.

 

Oh really? Then why does Jim Hendry keep telling me that Zambrano had a bad season last year since he only won 9 games?

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd like to think that Hendry says stuff like that just to appease the meatheads...but we all know that's not the case.

[jersey cubs fan]

heads or balls?

[Sammy Sofa]

Heads. Balls are sulley's territory.

[Outshined_One]

Well, I guess I was speculating a little, but Tyler Colvin for one.

 

Here are some organizational guys who I would like to see how they fare....

 

Brandon Guyer - AA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=446386

NICE looking prospect. Cubs Minor League Player of the Year for 2010. Good OB% and steals bases. Hits RH and LH pitching. Had a terrible May and June, but hit over .400 in July and August.

 

Brad Snyder - AAA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=430957

Snyder is almost 30 year old lefty who had a nice OB% and good power/average numbers. Stole 19 bases and looks pretty legit, though kinda ancient.

 

Brian LaHair - AAA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=445933

He is a little old, but another AAA guy who has a nice OB% and decent power numbers. Can't hit lefties, but might be a good bench option or platoon player.

 

Tony Campana - AA

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542999

ZERO power, but steals bases and.... gets on base. Hits RH and LH pitching.

 

your team is going to be atrocious if you're counting on those players to give you production like fukudome or soriano.

 

+1

 

Yeesh, at least list Brett Jackson next time.

[dew1679666265]

b) Fukudome, (who did lose his job to Tyler Colvin this year), should play in front of Colvin (I like the platoon)? IF a team expressed interest in Fukudome, and the Cubs could trade him for prospects - you wouldn't feel better about the Cubs chances using some other players already in the organization or on the market?

 

Fukudome lost his job to Colvin, but really shouldn't have. We've seen enough of Fukudome to be reasonably confident he'd finish the year with a .360+ OBP, decent slugging and good defense – even though he struggled at times, he should have gotten more PAs.

 

And I would trade Fukudome for a good package of prospects plus his entire salary paid, no less. I don't know whether that offer will come, however, and if not I wouldn't trade him. He's simply better than any of our other options.

 

After having 19.4% of his flyballs leave the yard (8th highest ratio in the NL and more than ever in his career), Colvin still didn't finish the year with better numbers than Fukudome.

 

Colvin: .254/.316/.500/.816 .352 wOBA 1.8 WAR

Kosuke: .263/.371/.439/.810 .352 wOBA 1.6 WAR

 

Kosuke is a much better bet to replicate those numbers next year than is Colvin to replicate his.

 

As for the minor leaguers you listed, all have potential as bench bats for the Cubs, but:

 

– Guyer is in his second tour of AA and isn't likely to produce an .800+ OPS in the majors next year considering he's only OPSd .800+ once previously in his MiL career.

– Snyder, as you noted, is 30 years old and is also seeing AAA pitching for the second time. He's been good for a couple of seasons now, but was struggling to reach an .800 OPS in the minors prior to that. I don't think he's as good a bet to OPS .800+ as Kosuke is.

– This is the 5th time LaHair has seen PCL pitching. He ought to be hitting them well. You're right that he could be a decent bat in a platoon role, but I'd much prefer Kosuke to him.

– Campana could be a nice 4th or (preferably) 5th OF, but there's no way that SLG (.384 this year in AA is his highest) would be useful as a starting OF. Kosuke has a very similar major league OBP to Campana's AA OBP while out-SLGing him in the majors vs AA.

 

I just don't see any of those guys likely being better than Kosuke. They could potentially all make Soto-esque breakouts, but it's simply not likely at all.

[TruffleShuffle]

speaking of kosuke, he's been quite good in the second half, which is weird because we all know that he completely falls apart every year after the all star break.