Fukudome not terrible??

[lumafia]

I didn't say he sucked in the leadoff spot, he just shouldn't hit as well there. He has more value lower in the order. As I said, he is ideal for the #2 spot, but the Cubs will not hit him there. He has been better in the 2, 3 and 5 spots in the order.

 

That's nonsense. Why can't he hit leadoff? There's even less of a sample to go on than the BS that people used to try and claim Soriano could only hit leadoff. His value is tied to his OBP and that's quite valuable at the top of the order.

 

Wow. Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bottle this morning. Since all of this is theoretical anyway, I'm just saying I wouldn't hit him leadoff. He hits well with men on base, and he will get more opportunities to do that further down in the order. This team has sucked at hitting with men on base for 2 years. Fukudome has improved his slugging every year, and his .456 slugging this year is good enough for the 25th best slugging % among OF in all of baseball. I just don't think that putting him in the leadoff spot is the best use of his talent. He has had more AB's out of the leadoff spot than any other spot in the order, and he hasn't had as much success there as he has had in other spots.

[jersey cubs fan]

I didn't say he sucked in the leadoff spot, he just shouldn't hit as well there. He has more value lower in the order. As I said, he is ideal for the #2 spot, but the Cubs will not hit him there. He has been better in the 2, 3 and 5 spots in the order.

 

That's nonsense. Why can't he hit leadoff? There's even less of a sample to go on than the BS that people used to try and claim Soriano could only hit leadoff. His value is tied to his OBP and that's quite valuable at the top of the order.

 

Wow. Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bottle this morning.

 

No, I just find your reasoning absurd.

[Tracer Bullet]

I did not miss the "hits well/poorly in the X spot in the order" arguments.

[jersey cubs fan]

Except for the fact that he hasn't been as good there as he has in other spots in the order. While his .364 OBP means he's doing a good job of not making outs, he does a better job of not making outs out of the 3, 5 and 6 spots, while slugging better.

 

How can you honestly think you make a lick of sense here?

[lumafia]

I didn't say he sucked in the leadoff spot, he just shouldn't hit as well there. He has more value lower in the order. As I said, he is ideal for the #2 spot, but the Cubs will not hit him there. He has been better in the 2, 3 and 5 spots in the order.

 

That's nonsense. Why can't he hit leadoff? There's even less of a sample to go on than the BS that people used to try and claim Soriano could only hit leadoff. His value is tied to his OBP and that's quite valuable at the top of the order.

 

Wow. Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bottle this morning.

 

No, I just find your reasoning absurd.

 

So why should he hit leadoff? Because he takes alot of pitches and knows how to take a walk? If that's the case, let's put Dunn in the leadoff spot when we sign him. No...wait, let's put Geo there.

[jersey cubs fan]

So why should he hit leadoff? Because he takes alot of pitches and knows how to take a walk? If that's the case, let's put Dunn in the leadoff spot when we sign him. No...wait, let's put Geo there.

 

Dunn's got a 945 career OPS at leadoff, so it sounds like a great idea, except his best spot is 7th, where he's hitting 973.

[treebird]

I didn't say he sucked in the leadoff spot, he just shouldn't hit as well there. He has more value lower in the order. As I said, he is ideal for the #2 spot, but the Cubs will not hit him there. He has been better in the 2, 3 and 5 spots in the order.

 

That's nonsense. Why can't he hit leadoff? There's even less of a sample to go on than the BS that people used to try and claim Soriano could only hit leadoff. His value is tied to his OBP and that's quite valuable at the top of the order.

 

Wow. Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bottle this morning.

 

No, I just find your reasoning absurd.

 

So why should he hit leadoff? Because he takes alot of pitches and knows how to take a walk? If that's the case, let's put Dunn in the leadoff spot when we sign him. No...wait, let's put Geo there.

 

what the hell are you talking about

 

fukudome and soto/dunn are not the same type at all. you adding their names to the conversation so you can make fun of the idea of leading them off is just you being ridiculous.

[lumafia]

Except for the fact that he hasn't been as good there as he has in other spots in the order. While his .364 OBP means he's doing a good job of not making outs, he does a better job of not making outs out of the 3, 5 and 6 spots, while slugging better.

 

How can you honestly think you make a lick of sense here?

 

So, what is your thinking here? That the sample size is too small upon which to draw such conclusions? Is it that you think his reasonably high OBP is the only thing that gives him value?

[jersey cubs fan]

Except for the fact that he hasn't been as good there as he has in other spots in the order. While his .364 OBP means he's doing a good job of not making outs, he does a better job of not making outs out of the 3, 5 and 6 spots, while slugging better.

 

How can you honestly think you make a lick of sense here?

 

So, what is your thinking here? That the sample size is too small upon which to draw such conclusions? Is it that you think his reasonably high OBP is the only thing that gives him value?

 

My thinking is it's stupid to breakdown players' production based on spot in batting order and then use that number to determine where he should hit.

[Guest]

So, what is your thinking here? That the sample size is too small upon which to draw such conclusions? Is it that you think his reasonably high OBP is the only thing that gives him value?

There are quite a few issues with the logic that you're using here, sample size being just one of them.

 

In addition to that, you have to think about the context in which those at bats were drawn. Were they slanted towards 2008 when he was adjusting to the league? Is there a significant R/L pitcher split there? Was Lou mainly batting him leadoff when he was giving someone else a day off versus a tough pitcher? Was Kosuke told to sacrifice power for OBP when he was leading off (would be stupid, but is possible).

 

In addition to that, you're assuming that his spot in the order actually had a causal impact on his performance. You're also assuming that causal impact would hold true going forward.

 

there's more, but hopefully that gives you a feel why people are reacting with some incredulity.

[lumafia]

Except for the fact that he hasn't been as good there as he has in other spots in the order. While his .364 OBP means he's doing a good job of not making outs, he does a better job of not making outs out of the 3, 5 and 6 spots, while slugging better.

 

How can you honestly think you make a lick of sense here?

 

So, what is your thinking here? That the sample size is too small upon which to draw such conclusions? Is it that you think his reasonably high OBP is the only thing that gives him value?

 

My thinking is it's stupid to breakdown players' production based on spot in batting order and then use that number to determine where he should hit.

 

So you assume that a hitter doesn't change his approach based on his spot in the order?

[Guest]

Except for the fact that he hasn't been as good there as he has in other spots in the order. While his .364 OBP means he's doing a good job of not making outs, he does a better job of not making outs out of the 3, 5 and 6 spots, while slugging better.

 

How can you honestly think you make a lick of sense here?

 

So, what is your thinking here? That the sample size is too small upon which to draw such conclusions? Is it that you think his reasonably high OBP is the only thing that gives him value?

 

My thinking is it's stupid to breakdown players' production based on spot in batting order and then use that number to determine where he should hit.

 

So you assume that a hitter doesn't change his approach based on his spot in the order?

A hitter should generally use the approach that will get the best results no matter on where they hit in the order.

[flyseye]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

I think if any other team placed much value in Fukudome, he would be on that team by now.

 

I don't know about that. We'd probably keep him around as a backup OF if he was paid like that. Other teams would likely do the same.

 

But that contract, for that level of production...

 

 

To me the Fuku hate is simply just that he makes way too much money. It's not like he doesn't do anything good on the field.

 

Well he certainly redefines the term streaky. April and August this year he has been fantastic, June and July he was awful. Even though the numbers average out to be pretty decent, its tough to watch a player look lost for the better part of 2 months.

 

Still, I agree he has some value. Might as well keep him as opposed to eating half or more of his contract.

[Northside Blues]

I can't be the only one who has noticed that the Kosuke Fukudome who flailed at outside pitches routinely in 08 and 09 hasn't shown up even when he's looked real bad. Who knows maybe next year will be the year he finally puts it all together. Probably not, but maybe.

[dew1679666265]

So why should he hit leadoff?

 

Guys at the top of the order should be one of two things (or both, ideally) - either one of your best overall hitters or a guy who excels at getting on base (high OBP). Kosuke doesn't really fit the former, but he definitely fits the latter. His SLG is improving, and that's a good sign, but his main strength is still his patience/OBP. A .362 career OBP and .379 OBP this year are very good numbers to put at the top of the order and get the most PAs on the team.

 

If we have a couple of guys with better on-base skills than Kosuke to move to the top of the order, I have no problem moving him down in the order and taking advantage of his solid slugging. However, we shouldn't move an inferior hitter up in the order simply because Kosuke slugs a decent amount.

[Rob]

Just because...

 

RF - Fukudome

C - Soto

1B - whichever big slugger we get

3B - Ramirez

CF - Byrd

LF - Soriano

SS - Castro

Pitcher's spot

2B - DeWitt / Baker platoon

[Old Style]

Why do you have Castro so low?

[Rob]

Why do you have Castro so low?

 

Because he's not as good of a hitter yet as the guys in front of him.

[Northside Blues]

hes probably as good as byrd next year, byrd's going to regress a bit

[chopsx9]

A hitter should generally use the approach that will get the best results no matter on where they hit in the order.

 

In fairness what players "should" do and what they do "do" aren't always the same thing. Soriano should layoff breaking balls that are low and outside. I bet he'd agree in a second - doesn't mean he's gonna do it.

 

By the same logic Latroy Hawkins should be approaching HOF save totals.

[Guest]

A hitter should generally use the approach that will get the best results no matter on where they hit in the order.

 

In fairness what players "should" do and what they do "do" aren't always the same thing. Soriano should layoff breaking balls that are low and outside. I bet he'd agree in a second - doesn't mean he's gonna do it.

 

By the same logic Latroy Hawkins should be approaching HOF save totals.

 

Approach isn't the same thing as reaction/execution. No one strikes out on a huge hack when they meant to shorten their swing.

[lumafia]

A hitter should generally use the approach that will get the best results no matter on where they hit in the order.

 

In fairness what players "should" do and what they do "do" aren't always the same thing. Soriano should layoff breaking balls that are low and outside. I bet he'd agree in a second - doesn't mean he's gonna do it.

 

By the same logic Latroy Hawkins should be approaching HOF save totals.

 

Approach isn't the same thing as reaction/execution. No one strikes out on a huge hack when they meant to shorten their swing.

 

That was initially the point I was trying to make, though it is a difficult point to defend, as finding statistics to support it is virtually impossible. My thought is that Fukudome would be more comfortable, and productive, lower in the order because that is where he has hit his entire career. That career includes the 9 years he played in Japan, where he was always ranked among the top 5 in slugging.

 

While some would argue, based on lack of statistical evidence, that a player does not change his approach because he is hitting leadoff, while I would argue, based on experience, that he does. I've never played on a college or professional team where a hitter in the leadoff spot wasn't trying to see alot of pitches and just get on base. Vastly different to the approach of a "middle-of-the-order" hitter who is trying to drive the ball. I've played baseball at high levels and have hit almost everywhere in the order during that time, and I can tell you that the only time I changed my approach was when I was asked to hit leadoff. It is difficult to find an example of a player who has spent his career in the middle of the lineup and made a shift to the leadoff spot, thus making it impossible to statistically support my argument. I've looked, and it's not there. So basically, it becomes my opinion based on my experience. I'm a big proponent of using statistics in determing a player's value to his team, and it drives me crazy to see my favorite team spend so many years ignoring it. However, statistics will never tell the entire story. Experience and observation is a big part of the equation. So here it is...

 

My opinion is that Kosuke Fukudome, who had spent his entire professional career having success hitting in the middle of the order with good slugging %'s, would not be as valuable to the team in the leadoff spot. His slugging numbers would be more valuable to the team further down in the lineup with increased chances with men on base, and he would not be as likely to change the approach that has worked so well for him throughout his entire professional career.

[jersey cubs fan]

Patience and getting on base has always been a huge part of Fukudome's approach so your theory makes no sense in this situation, plus his .456 SLG in 2010, let alone 413 MLB career, would hardly be out of place at the top of the order.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Kosuke's going up there not trying to drive the ball in the leadoff spot, then somebody should tell him he should. Problem solved.

[CUBZ99]

Patience and getting on base has always been a huge part of Fukudome's approach so your theory makes no sense in this situation, plus his .456 SLG in 2010, let alone 413 MLB career, would hardly be out of place at the top of the order.

 

But he's not fast...........