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CaliforniaRaisin

By CaliforniaRaisin,
in Cubs Minor League Talk

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craig First Round Pick

craig

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Posted
Posted (edited)
Vitters homered again today.

 

11/1

 

3B Vitters 2/5, BB, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (2)

DH Flaherty 3/4, R, RBI, 2B (3)

 

Nice. A day when he both walked and hit and hit with power all at once. That's the ticket.

 

His AFL batting average (.255) is extremely low for a league where most guys hit .300+. But his splits look nice: 14H/6XBH (including 2 HR), .181 IsoP; 6K/55 AB is a very low K-rate. And 5BB/6K/55 AB is a fine BB/K rate. BABIP is only .255, that's pretty low, especially on the hard Arizona fields.

 

Might be bad luck. Although hasn't he tended toward rather low BABIP over his career? His minor-league career BABIP is only .282, which I think is pretty low by minor league standards. I believe minor league BABIP tends to be considerably higher than major league BABIP?

 

Perhaps given his slowness and his reputation for outing himself on pitchers pitches, both might be conducive to below-average BABIP.

Edited by craig
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Perhaps given his slowness and his reputation for outing himself on pitchers pitches, both might be conducive to below-average BABIP.

That's exactly correct. Randomness certainly plays a role in BABIP, but that role is secondary to tangibles. It's true for all players. People who should know better (i.e., statisticians) throw the word "luck" around in regard to baseball far too often.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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11/4

 

2B Flaherty 0/4, 2 K

SP Muyco 4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, HR, WP

RP Carpenter 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K

RP Smit 1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, HR

RP Cales 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K

 

All of the Cubs brass and acouts were at this game, so everyone was supposed to play. Obviously, Brett Jackson isn't there now, but neither was Vitters(at least not dressed). No idea as to why this would be, unless they were giving him the day off to prepare for the prospects game? But then again, Carpenter pitched in this game and will be there for that as well.

Outshined_One Cooperstown

Outshined_One

Community Moderator
Posted
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Also, Arizona Phil has a piece on how certain Cubs prospects are performing in Venezuela.

 

After hitting 344/398/588 with 39 doubles, 13 HR, and 30 SB (3 CS) in 102 games (412 PA) at AA Tennessee in 2010, 24-year old right-handed hitting OF Brandon Guyer is presently hitting 348/444/435 in the VWL, and is tied for 3rd in the league in stolen bases and is 6th in OBP. Along with RHP Chris Archer, Guyer (the Cubs 2010 Minor League Player of the Year) is a virtual lock to get added to the Cubs 40-man roster later this month. (Reed Johnson and Cody Ross would probably be the current MLB players most-comparable to Guyer).

 

Squarely sitting atop the bubble as far as whether he will get added to the Cubs 40-man roster, 25-year old Marquez Smith is hitting 255/356/549 so far in the VWL, and is tied for 3rd in the league in HR. A college teammate of Cubs OF Tyler Colvin at Clemson, the stocky (5’10 215) Smith (who looks a bit like a fire plug) appeared to turn the corner in 2010, hitting 297/371/556 between AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa, while pounding out 20 HR and 28 doubles in 107 games (392 PA). Although he is slightly below-average defensively at the hot corner, Smith probably will have to make it to the big leagues as an everyday 3B because he lacks the athleticism and versatility needed to play other positions (he was tried at 2B, but it didn’t work out). If he can continue to display HR power, the Cubs might look at Smith as they begin to consider candidates to replace Aramis Ramirez post-2011.

toonsterwu ACL Cubs

toonsterwu

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I found the Marwin Gonzalez comments from AzPhil's post to be intriguing enough. It won't hurt if someone really decides to pluck him, but I'm mildly curious now if Marwin could continue the success he's had this winter. I'd like to see him back in A ball if he's in our system, getting AB's.
davell Chicago Cubs

davell

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I think Gonzalez is a casualty of our system getting deeper. He's blocked at Daytona next year by Lee and Watkins(not to mention he's already had 500 at bats there to begin with, albeit not great production) and he's blocked in Tennessee by LeMahieu, Flaherty, and Lake. I kind of doubt he's taken honestly, as I'd suspect pretty much every single team in baseball has at least one guy like him somewhere in their system.
toonsterwu ACL Cubs

toonsterwu

Old-Timey Member
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Really, as a total side comment, Marwin could slot in at 3rd base in Daytona, with Cerda at 2nd, and Watkins in the OF (or Marwin in the OF, Cerda at 3rd and Watkins at 2nd). I'm not sure he's really blocked, since if he develops, I think he wouldn't be a FT MI, at least, not from what I understand, and the hope would be that the bat would develop enough.

 

I mean, I'm not exactly hanging my hopes on Marwin developing, but he's always been so toolsy that I've always had him in the back of my mind, so hearing him succeed, even in Venezuala, perks my attention a tiny bit.

craig First Round Pick

craig

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I think Gonzalez is a casualty of our system getting deeper. He's blocked at Daytona next year by Lee and Watkins(not to mention he's already had 500 at bats there to begin with, albeit not great production) and he's blocked in Tennessee by LeMahieu, Flaherty, and Lake. I kind of doubt he's taken honestly, as I'd suspect pretty much every single team in baseball has at least one guy like him somewhere in their system.

 

We'll see how Gonzalez does. If Gonzelez is both playing well and if the Cubs think he's got a chance to become good, then he'll get his opportunity to play. Not likely that they'll return him to Daytona after playing decently at Tennessee and then having a monter winter, but I wouldn't imagine Watkins is good enough to be blocking anybody.

 

It could be tough to get a lot of action at Tennessee. Guys can share time, DH, play OF, and play 1B, so there are ways to get AB's even during a clutter. But if Vitters was to stay healthy enough to play most days, there could be a pinch on 2B/SS AB's.

 

Nice to see Gonzalez having a big winter. I wouldn't be shocked to see him emerge as a meaningful utility prospect. He's shown a knack for contact, and he's young enough to imagine him growing into at least a little bit of power.

toonsterwu ACL Cubs

toonsterwu

Old-Timey Member
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Tennessee is shaping up as a very intriguing club next year. The rotation should be fairly solid (Raley/Rusin/Cabrera/Dolis/McNutt would be my guess right now. Brenly gives them a decent minor league catcher. Marwin could conceivably grab some OF time there, perhaps RF, while floating around and spotting at other places, which might answer Raisin's issues when he was trying to mock out 2011 assignments awhile ago (and ran into problems with the AA OF).

 

He is young enough and hasn't done much with the bat (maybe a measure of bad luck, but minor league data is sketchy to really go too deep into that). Discipline is decent enough. It's been interesting to see how the Cubs have given him chances, even though he hasn't done enough at any level. He's only 22, so I wondered if this was a Jericho Jones sink-or-swim type scenario, but it sure doesn't feel that way at first observation.

Outshined_One Cooperstown

Outshined_One

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

11/10

 

LF/RF Flaherty 1/5, R, K

3B Vitters 2/4, BB, R, 2 RBI, 2B (5), 2 K, SB (2), CS (2)

SP Muyco 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, HBP

RP Carpenter 1.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

RP Smit 1.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, WP

craig First Round Pick

craig

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Vitters peripherals in AFL look really good. He could use a little more HR power, and his BABIP stinks.

 

But if a guy was able to full-season sustain his 6W/8K/59AB ratio, with over 40% of his hits for extra bases (and some of them HR's), you'd have a guy with VERY attractive numbers. If he had a normal BABIP this AFL instead of .237, he'd be hitting .330 and some of us would be more buzzed.

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Vitters peripherals in AFL look really good. He could use a little more HR power, and his BABIP stinks.

 

But if a guy was able to full-season sustain his 6W/8K/59AB ratio, with over 40% of his hits for extra bases (and some of them HR's), you'd have a guy with VERY attractive numbers. If he had a normal BABIP this AFL instead of .237, he'd be hitting .330 and some of us would be more buzzed.

I'm still strongly behind him as a prospect.

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Glad to see Vitters walk rate increasing a little bit (7 BB in 76 AB) in the AFL, about 1 in every 11 ab's compared to just 21 BB in 316 AB's between Day/Tenn in 2010, about 1 in 15 ab's. Granted it's a smaller sample size Edited by Cubswin11

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