Vitters Last 9 Games at AA in 2010 & More

[Donzo1679666396]

Got this from a poster called beardown on my Cubs chat on Skype... I liked it & thought it would be good here.

 

 

.345/.441/.724/1.165

 

With word coming down Vitters appears done until the AFL, thought I would post some thoughts on his progress this year. Real nice run to end the year for, Josh. Considering his BABIP was under.240 most of the season, his final numbers are adequate for a 20 year old at AA.

 

We all know of his pattern of initially struggling at each level, then performing much better before a promotion. It sure appeared Josh was continuing this pattern of “figuring out” his league. Too bad we weren’t able to see this to fruition this year.

 

The most exciting aspect of his play in 2010 was his commitment to improving his discipline and walk rate. His 21 walks in 316 at bats was a significant improvement over his career walk rate. I will want to see this continue in the AFL.

 

Next season will be important for Josh. Will want to see a walk rate 8 to 9% with an OPS of .900+ in AA and AAA. Also want to see improved play at 3B, or a move to 1B may be needed. With what Josh showed this year, especially after the All-Star break, I’m confident he will meet my expectations in 2011.

[TruffleShuffle]

an ops of .900 or better? that seems pretty ambitious for a 21 year old in the high minors whose best single-season ops is .852 and who's been at .770 and .717 the last two years.

[Donzo1679666396]

With a much improved walk rate/obp, I could see it... But yeah, it's high.

[sneakypower]

even an .800 would be a welcome surprise

[CubsWin]

I'm someone who can't wait to check the box scores of all the Cubs minor league affiliates and do so almost everyday. I agree with his assessment that it appeared Vitters was beginning to figure out AA like he had the lower levels after first struggling. But we'll never know for sure due to the timing of his injury. It could have been just a hot streak.

 

That said, I am not at all confident that Vitters will OPS at .900+ next season. True, if he greatly improves his walk rate (like he began to this season) he can get there, but such leaps in plate discipline are rare and should not be expected. I can see him continuing to improve his walk rate and completing his adjustment to AA level pitching next season, and as a 21 year old, I would be pleased to see him spend the majority of the year at AA unless of course he blows up early. I think it is reasonable to believe that Vitters will likely be a major league ready hitter by the time he is 22 or 23 which would have him be right on schedule. The thing I think may hold him back from the bigs is his glove.

 

Any reports on how his defense progressed this season?

[TruffleShuffle]

That said, I am not at all confident that Vitters will OPS at .900+ next season.

 

i'm confident that he won't

[jersey cubs fan]

It would be nice to see him comfortably in the 800s, not to mention spending the entire year in AA. There's no good reason for him to see AAA next year. He's got half a season of bad play at AA. Give him a full season without worrying about when to time his next promotion. Being young for your level is all well and good for grading a guy on the curve, but it doesn't do you any good once you get to the majors. The Cubs do not handle slow starting major leaguers well. He's going to have to be ready for the majors when he gets up here, so stop rushing that day.

[toonsterwu]

 

Any reports on how his defense progressed this season?

 

I believe the reports on his defense were similar to what they were before - passable at 3rd, but not good.

 

The plus side to Vitters injury is that maybe it allows him to sit back and maybe relax a bit, but I agree with jcf - he should spend most, if not all, of 2011 at AA, unless he is simply that dominant. There's no rush. Aramis will be here in 2011, and he may be here a bit longer.

 

Well, the other plus to the Vitters injury is that Canzler will likely get a lot of time at 3rd.

[CubsWin]

 

Any reports on how his defense progressed this season?

 

I believe the reports on his defense were similar to what they were before - passable at 3rd, but not good.

Thanks.

 

The plus side to Vitters injury is that maybe it allows him to sit back and maybe relax a bit, but I agree with jcf - he should spend most, if not all, of 2011 at AA, unless he is simply that dominant. There's no rush.

Couldn't agree more. Said pretty much exactly that a few posts up. The Cubs need to let him sit at AA for a full season, unless of course, he blows it up early.

[Donzo1679666396]

I am not at all confident that Vitters will OPS at .900+ next season. True, if he greatly improves his walk rate (like he began to this season) he can get there, but such leaps in plate discipline are rare and should not be expected.

 

Any reports on how his defense progressed this season?

Yeah, big jumps in plate discipline are rare--- but Vitters already started that this year. He made a huge jump this year over his career numbers & was really cruizing before he got hurt. His walk rate in that 2nd half surge was 12%--- Yep, very small sample size, but again this type of improvement is Vitters pattern, so it does help validate the sample size.

 

EVERY time he struggles at a level or with a part of his game, he figures it- this is how he rolls. He was on this path again this year, then unfortunately got hurt. With his track record, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt…The consistent hole in his game is his walk rate, which has capped his OB & OPS numbers. We’ll see how his improvement continues next year.

 

On his defense, it’s still about the same from what I’ve been told. I think the aggressive promotions haven’t helped his defense. With Vitters constantly being challenged offensively, it doesn’t help with defensive improvement.

Edited July 31, 2010 by Donzo

[Donzo1679666396]

He's got half a season of bad play at AA.

 

LOL!

 

How silly…

[Donzo1679666396]

The Cubs need to let him sit at AA for a full season, unless of course, he blows it up early.

Why?

 

I totally understand that opinion from a casual fan. A casual fan probably wants to see BA & HR numbers, then judge from there. Obviously, posters here on North Side Baseball’s minor league board are more knowledgeable than the casual fan.

 

For some reason the Cubs have aggressively promoted Vitter. I guess he has the personality that can handle that challenge. Not everyone can say that. So far, this approach has succeeded, with this year being cut short as he was surging in the 2nd half.

 

With his considerable improvement in his walk rate, which is vital to his long term success, he had another productive year of improvement… As I mentioned in another post, I do think a longer stay at a level would help his defense. With him always having to figure out a new advanced league, it’s not conducive to defensive focus.

 

The last thing to consider is the difference between AA & AAA for hitters. It all depends on what is best for Viiters development.. If he has trouble with more talented pitchers, AA would probably be better for him. If he has trouble with craftier pitchers, then AAA would probably be better for him. Also, with the Cubs system, considering league & park factors. Tennessee is tougher than Iowa.

[seattlecub]

Just a thought I've been having regarding Vitters and his promotion in the absence of blistering numbers: Perhaps the Cubs recognized the need for him to increase the selectivity in his plate approach and thought he might not do so without him seeing himself as struggling at the plate. While his FSL stats weren't great, they weren't particularly bad either, especially the batting average, which i think might be most likely to stand out to a young kid. However, perhaps the Cubs thought that to succeed in AA at this point he would have to change his approach, and that not doing so might lead to the kind of struggles that could change Vitters' perception of his performance and plate discipline.

 

Just a thought, and one that may be benevolent regarding the Cubs' player development team.

[Donzo1679666396]

I’ve been told he responds to challenge very well. He has a lot of self confidence.

 

Looking at the progressive promotion pattern for Vitters, the only real quick promotion was to AA this year. With his pattern of figuring out leagues, it’s a shame he went down early in the middle of his surge this year.

[CubsWin]

Just a thought I've been having regarding Vitters and his promotion in the absence of blistering numbers: Perhaps the Cubs recognized the need for him to increase the selectivity in his plate approach and thought he might not do so without him seeing himself as struggling at the plate. While his FSL stats weren't great, they weren't particularly bad either, especially the batting average, which i think might be most likely to stand out to a young kid. However, perhaps the Cubs thought that to succeed in AA at this point he would have to change his approach, and that not doing so might lead to the kind of struggles that could change Vitters' perception of his performance and plate discipline.

 

Just a thought, and one that may be benevolent regarding the Cubs' player development team.

Benevolent or not, it makes a lot of sense. If I were charged with improving his eye and selectivity at the plate, I'd definitely want him in at least AA.