The 2010 offseason

[champaignchris]

Looking at other 1B contracts, I think Dunn will probably command closer to $14M or $15M a year.

[dew1679666265]

That also requires you waiting and hoping he comes to the Cubs. If you let Dunn go for the prettier girl and then she goes to the dance with somebody else, you are spending a lot of lonely nights at home for several years to come.

 

That's a very legitimate point, though I think it's fair to point out that Pujols and Fielder may also be available that offseason. Pujols is incredibly unlikely, but Fielder may well be there and would be a similar option to Dunn, only younger.

 

It's similar to the NBA offseason we just had, do you build with the big offseason in mind and hope you can attract the great free agent, or do you take the safer, yet less attractive route? I wouldn't strongly oppose pursuing Dunn and price/years would be a big factor in whether I'd strongly want him or not.

[dew1679666265]

Looking at other 1B contracts, I think Dunn will probably command closer to $14M or $15M a year.

 

If I had to guess, in a weak FA class, that's the range I'd probably point to for Dunn. That over 2 years isn't bad, but at 3-4 years is tough to do considering age.

[mookie]

An interesting possibility may be Lance Berkman. He has injury history, and will probably be bought out by Houston. He may be a cheap alternative. Then again, everything depends on how he finishes the season.

[TruffleShuffle]

dunn has the dreaded old player skills. he's probably not going to age well. still he's only 30 (31 this offseason) and i think he can be productive for another couple of years. if you sign him to a four year deal, you're expecting very good production over the first half of the contract and hoping he doesn't fall off a cliff (travis hafner) until very late in the deal.

 

berkman has old player skills except for the low batting average... his down year plus the injury woes would cause me to steer clear unless you get him on the cheap.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Everything depends on Aramis for the offseason. We could end up with a very solid lineup if he returnd next year. Heres a projection.

 

1B ???

2B Theriot/Font/Baker

SS. Castro

3B. Aramis

LF Soriano

CF Byrd

RF Colvin/Fuku

C Soto

C Chirinos/Castillo

IF Theriot/Font/Baker

IF Barney

OF Colvin/Fuku/??? if Fuku moved

OF Brad Snyder

Sp Z(I really dont see him going anywhere)

SP Demp

SP Wells

SP Gorzalanny

SP Cashner/Silva/Diamond

CL Marmol

RP Marshall

BP Guzman?

BP Jackson

BP Grabow

BP 2 of Stevens/Cales/Gaub/Parker

 

As said by someone before, 1 1B option is to see if the Royals would send us Alex Gordon for Tyler Colvin, and then keep Fuku in RF.

[TruffleShuffle]

i guess if i were gm of the cubs i'd go into next year with this plan:

 

catcher: soto, chirinos

1b: ???

2b: fontenot/???

ss: castro

3b: hopefully aramis

utility: d. barney

of: byrd, soriano, colvin, fukudome (assuming no trade)

sp: zambrano, dempster, wells, cashner, gorzo/silva/jay jax

bullpen: marmol, marshall, silva/gorzo, grablow

 

that's 19 spots. i'd sign a 1b, probably adam dunn. i'd look for a platoon partner for fontenot - perhaps cristian guzman or juan uribe? another possibility would be orlando hudson as everyday 2b and fontenot is another utility guy. there's 21. the 5th OF spot could probably be filled in house by someone like adduci, lahair or snyder, or you could go out and get a guy like gabe gross, jody gerut, whatever. i'd look into one more middle reliever - someone like jesse crain, matt guerrier, grant balfour, and other guys who are not current or former twins. then i'd hope that the last couple of bullpen spots could be filled by a group of guys that includes jeff gray, stevens, gaub, parker, caridad, dolis, m. mateo... hell even angel guzman gets back for part of the year.

[davell]

I think we'd have to overpay for Dunn. He's complained about Wrigley Field on a few occasions from what I can remember.

 

My 1B plan would be this: Go after A-Gon hard. If he's not able to be dealt for, but is not looking like he's re-signing either, I'd wait it out. Go ahead and sign Cantu. Let him play 1B for 2011 and if Aramis walks after the season, he can move to 3rd to accomodate us trying to sign A-Gon again. Or maybe Fielder, if he's still out there then.

[TruffleShuffle]

I think we'd have to overpay for Dunn. He's complained about Wrigley Field on a few occasions from what I can remember.

 

My 1B plan would be this: Go after A-Gon hard. If he's not able to be dealt for, but is not looking like he's re-signing either, I'd wait it out. Go ahead and sign Cantu. Let him play 1B for 2011 and if Aramis walks after the season, he can move to 3rd to accomodate us trying to sign A-Gon again. Or maybe Fielder, if he's still out there then.

 

i don't get it. you think we'd have to overpay for a guy who has traditionally been underpaid for his production, but we won't have to overpay san diego in prospects for one of the top 10 players in baseball who also happens to be very popular, that team's only real star and a native of that area? and then sign him to a huge deal?

 

i suspect that gonzalez will be one of those guys like miggy cabrera who never ends up hitting the free agent market - either he signs a deal with san diego or someone trades for and signs him. i guess if you're willing to drop $20m a year and three or four good prospects for him it can work.

[soapy]

I was all interested in diving into this topic this morning, CCP, but with the apparent Hendry news I'm just too depressed to put in the effort now.

 

Can you imagine how much Ryne Sandberg would hate Adam Dunn?

[lumafia]

Based on what Howard got, you have to expect Dunn to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 4/70. You could probably sign Dunn to a 3-year deal, but you are going to have to give him a minimum of $18 mil per to get him to agree to it.

[Guest]

Based on what Howard got, you have to expect Dunn to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 4/70. You could probably sign Dunn to a 3-year deal, but you are going to have to give him a minimum of $18 mil per to get him to agree to it.

 

I don't believe that's close to true. I bet you could get Dunn for 3/45 or 4/50.

[Sammy Sofa]

Based on what Howard got, you have to expect Dunn to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 4/70. You could probably sign Dunn to a 3-year deal, but you are going to have to give him a minimum of $18 mil per to get him to agree to it.

 

I don't believe that's close to true. I bet you could get Dunn for 3/45 or 4/50.

 

Yeah, Dunn's not going to get a giant contract. Howard's contract is absurd, but he has name recognition and a (vastly overrated) reputation that Dunn doesn't.

[jersey cubs fan]

Based on what Howard got, you have to expect Dunn to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 4/70. You could probably sign Dunn to a 3-year deal, but you are going to have to give him a minimum of $18 mil per to get him to agree to it.

 

I don't believe that's close to true. I bet you could get Dunn for 3/45 or 4/50.

 

Yeah, Dunn's not going to get a giant contract. Howard's contract is absurd, but he has name recognition and a (vastly overrated) reputation that Dunn doesn't.

 

Homegrown slugging hero on a WS champion plays a big part in that contract.

[Sammy Sofa]

Based on what Howard got, you have to expect Dunn to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 4/70. You could probably sign Dunn to a 3-year deal, but you are going to have to give him a minimum of $18 mil per to get him to agree to it.

 

I don't believe that's close to true. I bet you could get Dunn for 3/45 or 4/50.

 

Yeah, Dunn's not going to get a giant contract. Howard's contract is absurd, but he has name recognition and a (vastly overrated) reputation that Dunn doesn't.

 

Homegrown slugging hero on a WS champion plays a big part in that contract.

 

Exactly.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I jumped into MLBTRs live chat with this, and here was the answer, for what its worth:

 

Comment: ]

Tyler Colvin for Alex Gordon, who hangs up first?

 

Wednesday July 21, 2010 2:05

2:05 Have to think Colvin's stock is higher at the moment.

 

Interesting.

[Guest]

Dunn has mashed ball at Wrigley I cannot imagine him complaining about playing first since the physical space is exactly like anywhere. Playing in the OF, that may be a different story, but if he's make 12 LARGE for the next 3 years I think he'd learn to bear it.

 

Anyway, I'm almost positive he's not a Hendry type player and I'm 100% positive he's not a Sandberg type player. I'm about 60% positive Sandberg will be the next manager. I guess that makes me think the likelihood of acquiring Dunn is @ 30%. I'm 90% sure of my math.

[dew1679666265]

Dunn has mashed ball at Wrigley I cannot imagine him complaining about playing first since the physical space is exactly like anywhere. Playing in the OF, that may be a different story, but if he's make 12 LARGE for the next 3 years I think he'd learn to bear it.

 

Anyway, I'm almost positive he's not a Hendry type player and I'm 100% positive he's not a Sandberg type player. I'm about 60% positive Sandberg will be the next manager. I guess that makes me think the likelihood of acquiring Dunn is @ 30%. I'm 90% sure of my math.

 

Hendry has pursued him in the past and considered him over Bradley in that offseason. The "sources" have said it's Dunn's defense, not offense, that has kept Hendry from pursuing him more heavily.

[Guest]

Dunn has mashed ball at Wrigley I cannot imagine him complaining about playing first since the physical space is exactly like anywhere. Playing in the OF, that may be a different story, but if he's make 12 LARGE for the next 3 years I think he'd learn to bear it.

 

Anyway, I'm almost positive he's not a Hendry type player and I'm 100% positive he's not a Sandberg type player. I'm about 60% positive Sandberg will be the next manager. I guess that makes me think the likelihood of acquiring Dunn is @ 30%. I'm 90% sure of my math.

 

Hendry has pursued him in the past and considered him over Bradley in that offseason. The "sources" have said it's Dunn's defense, not offense, that has kept Hendry from pursuing him more heavily.

I want those sources because I'm calling [expletive]. There was a rumor back in the day that Hendry shot down a Dunn for Hill trade that was debunked by Bruce Miles. I've never read that Hendry was interested in Dunn.

[SouthSideRyan]

I recall the same stuff dew did from the '08-'09 offseason

[CubColtPacer]

I recall the same stuff dew did from the '08-'09 offseason

 

So do I. In fact I remember the thing that was repeated was that the Cubs were interested in him as a player but didn't see him as a right fielder and were unwilling to move Soriano from left.

 

Dunn according to a couple sources also wanted to come to the Cubs over anybody else in that offseason.

[dew1679666265]

I want those sources because I'm calling [expletive]. There was a rumor back in the day that Hendry shot down a Dunn for Hill trade that was debunked by Bruce Miles. I've never read that Hendry was interested in Dunn.

 

in Dunn's case, the Cubs love the person and the bat but cringe at the thought of an outfield with Soriano and Dunn at the corners - not the mention the possibility of that same outfield including the platoon center fielder Kosuke Fukudome at a second-best position.

 

That's all I could find offhand. I know there were a number more, however.

[dew1679666265]

No idea where to put this, but I think it's interesting. So I'll put it here.

 

Fangraphs analysis on Colvin

 

Colvin has been an asset at the plate while hitting for gargantuan power, and he has shown the ability to hit for solid pop in the minors. But is it really reasonable to expect a guy with a career .188 ISO on the farm to continue posting a major league ISO on par with elite major league sluggers? While Colvin should continue to drive the ball often, we should expect a good deal of regression — ZiPS projects a .168 ISO for the rest of the season, and CHONE predicts a .186 ISO.

 

Long-term, Colvin should hit for above-average power. But if he’s going to hold significant value to the Cubs and fantasy owners, he’s going to resist the temptation to lunge at those off-the-plate offerings.

[soapy]

I really can't decide how I think the Cubs should approach this offseason. If they end up selling high on guys like Marmol, Byrd and/or to a lesser extent Ramirez; setting your sites on 2012 and beyond is the most logical approach, IMO.

 

If they are all coming back next year and you end up say moving Fukudome only (as far as guys signed thru next season), I wonder if they can piece together a team that can compete and whether or not its worth it to try. Say they trade Fukudome and don't bring back Lee. I wonder what Jayson Werth is going to cost and the length of contract he's going to get at age 31 (turns 32 next May). He makes $7.5 million this year and I have no idea what he'd command on the open market. Signing Dunn and Werth would more than make up for what's being lost in Lee/Fukudome, offensively. The problem is, I'm not sure it really is enough to make them a "contender" and if not you are saddled with two more aging players on a team that probably needs to be going in the opposite direction.

 

Can they fill their rotation (relatively) cheaply by shedding Lilly and Silva and have enough left over to sign the above and upgrade at 2B? And if so, is that even the way to go? You still lack a top-tier stud offensive bat.