Starting a Fire Sale

[dew1679666265]

I agree. Forget even trading Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano. Just put them on waivers and hope someone picks up their contract ala the Alex Rios pickup by the White Sox.

 

If by the miracle of God, someone picks up Fukudome, Ramirez, and Z, you just saved yourself a hell of a lot of money. I would include Soriano, but as we all know, there is no one dumb enough to take that contract on.

 

Trading Kosuke and getting nothing would be awful, same with Z. Both have been very good to great very recently (this year for Fukudome) and neither have awful contracts. There's really no comparison of Kosuke and Rios' contract either. Rios is paid $1 million less than Kosuke per year, but is guaranteed through 2014, while Kosuke's contract is up next year (three years earlier). In the same way, Z is overpaid, but his contract is guaranteed only through 2012 – two years less than Rios. That difference cannot be overstated.

 

In the part of what you said that I quoted, we would save quite a bit of money, but we would also lose out on the chance to get value for very valuable pieces. There almost certainly is a market for Kosuke and Z, there will be for Aramis assuming he rebounds and there could be for Soriano if he continues to hit. Getting nothing for Kosuke and Z and selling Aramis at the lowest point he'll ever be at are extremely short-sighted at best.

[davearm2]

I agree. Forget even trading Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano. Just put them on waivers and hope someone picks up their contract ala the Alex Rios pickup by the White Sox.

 

Try and trade Lee and Lilly because they may have value as potential Type A free agents. If you can't get anything decent, hold on and offer them arbitration if they are Type A. Offer Lilly if he's type A or B.

 

If by the miracle of God, someone picks up Fukudome, Ramirez, and Z, you just saved yourself a hell of a lot of money. I would include Soriano, but as we all know, there is no one dumb enough to take that contract on.

I'm pretty sure guys with no-trade protection in their contracts can block waiver claims also. (The whole point is to give the player control over where he gets to play.)

 

Not that these guys necessarily would, but they could.

[Guest]

I agree. Forget even trading Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano. Just put them on waivers and hope someone picks up their contract ala the Alex Rios pickup by the White Sox.

 

Try and trade Lee and Lilly because they may have value as potential Type A free agents. If you can't get anything decent, hold on and offer them arbitration if they are Type A. Offer Lilly if he's type A or B.

 

If by the miracle of God, someone picks up Fukudome, Ramirez, and Z, you just saved yourself a hell of a lot of money. I would include Soriano, but as we all know, there is no one dumb enough to take that contract on.

I'm pretty sure guys with no-trade protection in their contracts can block waiver claims also. (The whole point is to give the player control over where he gets to play.)

 

Not that these guys necessarily would, but they could.

 

I can see them blocking trades that happen as a result of waiver claims, but the claims themselves if the team just wants to let them go? I wouldn't think they would have the power to block that.

[davearm2]

I agree. Forget even trading Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano. Just put them on waivers and hope someone picks up their contract ala the Alex Rios pickup by the White Sox.

 

If by the miracle of God, someone picks up Fukudome, Ramirez, and Z, you just saved yourself a hell of a lot of money. I would include Soriano, but as we all know, there is no one dumb enough to take that contract on.

 

Trading Kosuke and getting nothing would be awful, same with Z. Both have been very good to great very recently (this year for Fukudome) and neither have awful contracts. There's really no comparison of Kosuke and Rios' contract either. Rios is paid $1 million less than Kosuke per year, but is guaranteed through 2014, while Kosuke's contract is up next year (three years earlier). In the same way, Z is overpaid, but his contract is guaranteed only through 2012 – two years less than Rios. That difference cannot be overstated.

 

In the part of what you said that I quoted, we would save quite a bit of money, but we would also lose out on the chance to get value for very valuable pieces. There almost certainly is a market for Kosuke and Z, there will be for Aramis assuming he rebounds and there could be for Soriano if he continues to hit. Getting nothing for Kosuke and Z and selling Aramis at the lowest point he'll ever be at are extremely short-sighted at best.

Awful is a very subjective term, but none of the guys being discussed would get their same contracts as free agents now.

[KingCubsFan]

I agree. Forget even trading Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano. Just put them on waivers and hope someone picks up their contract ala the Alex Rios pickup by the White Sox.

 

If by the miracle of God, someone picks up Fukudome, Ramirez, and Z, you just saved yourself a hell of a lot of money. I would include Soriano, but as we all know, there is no one dumb enough to take that contract on.

 

Trading Kosuke and getting nothing would be awful, same with Z. Both have been very good to great very recently (this year for Fukudome) and neither have awful contracts. There's really no comparison of Kosuke and Rios' contract either. Rios is paid $1 million less than Kosuke per year, but is guaranteed through 2014, while Kosuke's contract is up next year (three years earlier). In the same way, Z is overpaid, but his contract is guaranteed only through 2012 – two years less than Rios. That difference cannot be overstated.

 

In the part of what you said that I quoted, we would save quite a bit of money, but we would also lose out on the chance to get value for very valuable pieces. There almost certainly is a market for Kosuke and Z, there will be for Aramis assuming he rebounds and there could be for Soriano if he continues to hit. Getting nothing for Kosuke and Z and selling Aramis at the lowest point he'll ever be at are extremely short-sighted at best.

Other than Ramirez, I would be surprised if any of them had a significant market unless we ate a lot of money.

[davearm2]

I agree. Forget even trading Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano. Just put them on waivers and hope someone picks up their contract ala the Alex Rios pickup by the White Sox.

 

Try and trade Lee and Lilly because they may have value as potential Type A free agents. If you can't get anything decent, hold on and offer them arbitration if they are Type A. Offer Lilly if he's type A or B.

 

If by the miracle of God, someone picks up Fukudome, Ramirez, and Z, you just saved yourself a hell of a lot of money. I would include Soriano, but as we all know, there is no one dumb enough to take that contract on.

I'm pretty sure guys with no-trade protection in their contracts can block waiver claims also. (The whole point is to give the player control over where he gets to play.)

 

Not that these guys necessarily would, but they could.

 

I can see them blocking trades that happen as a result of waiver claims, but the claims themselves if the team just wants to let them go? I wouldn't think they would have the power to block that.

They do.

 

If, say, Kansas City claimed Fukudome, and Fukudome didn't want to go play in KC (and KC was one of the teams on his NTC), then he wouldn't be going to KC.

[dew1679666265]

Awful is a very subjective term, but none of the guys being discussed would get their same contracts as free agents now.

 

Kosuke couldn't get a 2/26 deal right now? Or Z get a 2/36 deal? I'd bet both would get similar deals to those. And I'd just about guarantee Ramirez would have gotten a 2/30 deal before this season and if he can rebound in the second half of this year and first half of next year, there's no question whatsoever he'd get a 1/14.6 deal.

 

None of those three are vastly overpaid. Kosuke has been very productive for two seasons and started this year well. Z and Ramirez have struggled this year, but both have very recently been very good to great and can very realistically get the trade value back that they had as recently as this past offseason. I don't see the logic in just dumping players who could net us some decent to very good prospects.

[dew1679666265]

Other than Ramirez, I would be surprised if any of them had a significant market unless we ate a lot of money.

 

At this very moment, Z and Aramis likely wouldn't have much of a market. But both probably had significant markets very recently and there's little reason to think neither can rebound and play well for extended periods of time.

[davearm2]

Awful is a very subjective term, but none of the guys being discussed would get their same contracts as free agents now.

 

Kosuke couldn't get a 2/26 deal right now? Or Z get a 2/36 deal? I'd bet both would get similar deals to those. And I'd just about guarantee Ramirez would have gotten a 2/30 deal before this season and if he can rebound in the second half of this year and first half of next year, there's no question whatsoever he'd get a 1/14.6 deal.

 

None of those three are vastly overpaid. Kosuke has been very productive for two seasons and started this year well. Z and Ramirez have struggled this year, but both have very recently been very good to great and can very realistically get the trade value back that they had as recently as this past offseason. I don't see the logic in just dumping players who could net us some decent to very good prospects.

I think you're underestimating how deeply the recession has impacted salaries.

 

How many guys got multi-year deals worth more than $10m/year last offseason? Not very many. Bay, Lackey, Holliday. Anyone else?

[KingCubsFan]

Awful is a very subjective term, but none of the guys being discussed would get their same contracts as free agents now.

 

Kosuke couldn't get a 2/26 deal right now? Or Z get a 2/36 deal? I'd bet both would get similar deals to those. And I'd just about guarantee Ramirez would have gotten a 2/30 deal before this season and if he can rebound in the second half of this year and first half of next year, there's no question whatsoever he'd get a 1/14.6 deal.

 

None of those three are vastly overpaid. Kosuke has been very productive for two seasons and started this year well. Z and Ramirez have struggled this year, but both have very recently been very good to great and can very realistically get the trade value back that they had as recently as this past offseason. I don't see the logic in just dumping players who could net us some decent to very good prospects.

Kosuke is a right fielder who hits 10 HR's a year. He'd probably get something closer to 2/10.

[TruffleShuffle]

any organization that gave zambrano 2 years and $36 million right now would be completely idiotic.

[apete6]

Other than Ramirez, I would be surprised if any of them had a significant market unless we ate a lot of money.

 

At this very moment, Z and Aramis likely wouldn't have much of a market. But both probably had significant markets very recently and there's little reason to think neither can rebound and play well for extended periods of time.

 

Maybe they can, but if Ricketts can free up $31 million for each of the next 2 years offseasons plus the remaining savings this season, he would be an idiot not to do it.

 

If Fukudome and Zambrano go on and win MVP and Cy Young, then good for them.

[Backtobanks]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

 

That has to be the funniest post I've read in a long time. Take a page of of Kenny Williams' book? The WS have one of the worst farm systems and he has traded all of his prospects for "young" players like Andruw Jones, Peavy, Pierre, Teahen, and Kotsay. :lol:

[Guest]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

 

That has to be the funniest post I've read in a long time. Take a page of of Kenny Williams' book? The WS have one of the worst farm systems and he has traded all of his prospects for "young" players like Andruw Jones, Peavy, Pierre, Teahen, and Kotsay. :lol:

 

Did you even read what he said? Williams isn't all that great at his job, but he is smart about what KCF was talking about. Carlos Quentin being the most obvious example, although injuries seem to have kept him from being useful since 2008.

[jersey cubs fan]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

 

That has to be the funniest post I've read in a long time. Take a page of of Kenny Williams' book? The WS have one of the worst farm systems and he has traded all of his prospects for "young" players like Andruw Jones, Peavy, Pierre, Teahen, and Kotsay. :lol:

 

Did you even read what he said? Williams isn't all that great at his job, but he is smart about what KCF was talking about. Carlos Quentin being the most obvious example, although injuries seem to have kept him from being useful since 2008.

 

As long as he's taking that page, and that page only, that's fine. But I wouldn't want him even looking at the table of contents, let alone reading the whole thing.

[Guest]

Well yeah, that's what he said, and even listed four guys that fit that mold.

[dew1679666265]

How many guys got multi-year deals worth more than $10m/year last offseason? Not very many. Bay, Lackey, Holliday. Anyone else?

 

2 years, minimum $10 mil:

 

Bay

Lackey

Holliday

 

Randy Wolf, Chone Figgins and Aroldis Chapman also got deals with a total value greater than what is left on Kosuke's contract. Also keep in mind the whole $26 million left on his deal won't be paid by the acquiring team. By July, the Cubs will have paid roughly $6.5-7 million of this year's contract, leaving the other team to pay about $20 mil or less for a stretch run and one more season.

 

Like I've said before, I'd be willing to pay as much as $10 million to an acquiring team if it got me a quality prospect or two. If that doesn't interest teams, I keep Kosuke until next year's trading deadline and look to trade him then.

[dew1679666265]

Kosuke is a right fielder who hits 10 HR's a year. He'd probably get something closer to 2/10.

 

And posts a near .400 OBP with excellent defense in right field. His slugging has also improved each year he's been in the majors and currently sits at .456. Teams value that.

[dew1679666265]

any organization that gave zambrano 2 years and $36 million right now would be completely idiotic.

 

Right this minute with his struggles bouncing between the pen and rotation, yes I agree. Before this season when he didn't have a season where he posted an ERA over 4 and a career K/9 at 7.71, I think there would have been quite a bit of interest in him at $18 a year for two seasons.

 

It might not have been a great deal even then, but I think somebody would have given a 29 year old pitcher that.

[dew1679666265]

Maybe they can, but if Ricketts can free up $31 million for each of the next 2 years offseasons plus the remaining savings this season, he would be an idiot not to do it.

 

If Fukudome and Zambrano go on and win MVP and Cy Young, then good for them.

 

It'd be pretty dumb as well to know you have assets that can bring in a good to very good return in the future and give them away at their lowest point of value (with the exception of Kosuke).

 

Just like you shouldn't buy high, you also shouldn't sell low and if the Cubs simply waived Z and Aramis right now, they'd be selling as low as they possibly could.

[dew1679666265]

Just out of curiosity, for those who want to dump Z, Aramis and Fukudome for nothing, who should we spend those dollars on this offseason that ensures we compete in 2011?

 

And if the players to ensure we contend in 2011 aren't available this offseason, then why don't we keep the players and see if their value rises between now and the 2011 trade deadline?

[apete6]

Maybe they can, but if Ricketts can free up $31 million for each of the next 2 years offseasons plus the remaining savings this season, he would be an idiot not to do it.

 

If Fukudome and Zambrano go on and win MVP and Cy Young, then good for them.

 

It'd be pretty dumb as well to know you have assets that can bring in a good to very good return in the future and give them away at their lowest point of value (with the exception of Kosuke).

 

Just like you shouldn't buy high, you also shouldn't sell low and if the Cubs simply waived Z and Aramis right now, they'd be selling as low as they possibly could.

 

Not really. Selling as low as they possibly could would be DFAing them and paying all of their salary for them to play for another team. Allowing another team to pick them (and all of their salary) up on waivers for nothing would essentially be a win for the Cubs.

[apete6]

Just out of curiosity, for those who want to dump Z, Aramis and Fukudome for nothing, who should we spend those dollars on this offseason that ensures we compete in 2011?

 

And if the players to ensure we contend in 2011 aren't available this offseason, then why don't we keep the players and see if their value rises between now and the 2011 trade deadline?

 

Carl Crawford is a FA, Cliff Lee, Tim Hudson, maybe take a flier on a Brandon Webb. None of those guys are a must have and passing on all of them and starting the rebuilding process would be fine with me.

 

More importantly, this $ could be used to invest heavily in the international market or next year's draft when we're sure to have a high pick as well as spending a ton of money to shore up the front office and maybe bring in someone who knows what the hell they are doing in building an organization. For example, do you think Andrew Friedmann from TB wouldn't leave for $3-5 million/year?

[dew1679666265]

Not really. Selling as low as they possibly could would be DFAing them and paying all of their salary for them to play for another team. Allowing another team to pick them (and all of their salary) up on waivers for nothing would essentially be a win for the Cubs.

 

If you believe that there is no point in time between now and the end of their contracts that you believe you could get prospects/players of value for them, then you're right. But if you believe that they could raise their value in a way that will make them attractive enough to other teams that the other teams are willing to give prospects/players for them, then you're selling low.

 

Basically, do you think this past offseason that the Cubs could have gotten a good deal for Aramis or Z? If so and now you're advocating waiving them for nothing, then you're advocating selling very low for them.

[apete6]

Not really. Selling as low as they possibly could would be DFAing them and paying all of their salary for them to play for another team. Allowing another team to pick them (and all of their salary) up on waivers for nothing would essentially be a win for the Cubs.

 

If you believe that there is no point in time between now and the end of their contracts that you believe you could get prospects/players of value for them, then you're right. But if you believe that they could raise their value in a way that will make them attractive enough to other teams that the other teams are willing to give prospects/players for them, then you're selling low.

 

Basically, do you think this past offseason that the Cubs could have gotten a good deal for Aramis or Z? If so and now you're advocating waiving them for nothing, then you're advocating selling very low for them.

 

Yes, I am saying that there is no chance of the Cubs ever trading Aramis, Z, Soriano, or Fukudome for any package of salary relief and/or prospects that will be better than just trying to get someone to take their salary for nothing right now.

 

I may be wrong, but that's what I believe.