Helping with Picking for the Cubs in a Mock Draft

[Outshined_One]

Long story short, I just signed up for the community mock draft over at Sickels' blog. It's three rounds and happens June 5th. Here is my Mock Organization Diary, which talks about the philosophy I'm following, players I'm considering, etc.

 

I would be grateful for any comments, suggestions, or criticisms any of you might have for me in this process. Basically, any help I get will be welcome.

 

Thanks!

[davell]

Are you leaning towards taking guys who have fallen somewhat? Do you think Ricketts is going to increase the budget very much this year? Personally, I think it goes up some, hopefully quite a bit actually. But Toonster made a great point about Ricketts may not want to rock the boat TOO much with MLB since this is his first draft.......

 

In the end, I'm hoping we get a guy in the 1st who has fallen because of signability issues. Probably go slot for a while after that(maybe through rounds 5 or 6) and then wind up with 2-3 overslots total that we wind up spending 500K( hopefully including a guy we give out a mill or more too) apiece on and another 2-3 guys we give out 100K to or so........

 

We had around a 4 mill scouting budget last year, I'd like to see us in the 6-7 mill range this year. Some of that will be the discrepancy of picking 16th versus 31st anyway. I'm hopeful that when Ricketts said the scouting and player development budgets have increased, this is his plan......

 

As far as positons go, I honestly don't think the Cubs will take a MI early on this draft. I understand BPA and all, but we are loaded at this point and it's honestly going to be hard to move up for some guys. I guess a HS guy is possible, but a college MI would be blocked just about everywhere you look right now.

 

I would LIKE to see us take a power arm, a high upside OFer, and maybe either a C or another arm in the top 3 rounds, assuming we see guys on the board who fall into where we pick and aren't reaches......

[CP_414]

Whats the word on AJ Cole? I've read he may fall to the middle of the first round.

[Guest]

Are you leaning towards taking guys who have fallen somewhat? Do you think Ricketts is going to increase the budget very much this year? Personally, I think it goes up some, hopefully quite a bit actually. But Toonster made a great point about Ricketts may not want to rock the boat TOO much with MLB since this is his first draft.......

 

In the end, I'm hoping we get a guy in the 1st who has fallen because of signability issues. Probably go slot for a while after that(maybe through rounds 5 or 6) and then wind up with 2-3 overslots total that we wind up spending 500K( hopefully including a guy we give out a mill or more too) apiece on and another 2-3 guys we give out 100K to or so........

 

We had around a 4 mill scouting budget last year, I'd like to see us in the 6-7 mill range this year. Some of that will be the discrepancy of picking 16th versus 31st anyway. I'm hopeful that when Ricketts said the scouting and player development budgets have increased, this is his plan......

 

As far as positons go, I honestly don't think the Cubs will take a MI early on this draft. I understand BPA and all, but we are loaded at this point and it's honestly going to be hard to move up for some guys. I guess a HS guy is possible, but a college MI would be blocked just about everywhere you look right now.

 

I would LIKE to see us take a power arm, a high upside OFer, and maybe either a C or another arm in the top 3 rounds, assuming we see guys on the board who fall into where we pick and aren't reaches......

 

You have to think Wilken will still take MIF guys even if the Cubs are deep there. Wilken strongly believes in drafting up-the-middle guys and then moving them from SS or CF if need be since they should have the athleticism to handle the switch.

 

Given how strong the first round is in arms, I think that's an obvious way for the Cubs to go. Ranaudo, Harvey, Blair...

[Outshined_One]

Are you leaning towards taking guys who have fallen somewhat? Do you think Ricketts is going to increase the budget very much this year? Personally, I think it goes up some, hopefully quite a bit actually. But Toonster made a great point about Ricketts may not want to rock the boat TOO much with MLB since this is his first draft.......

 

With the first round pick, yeah, I think I'm leaning towards guys who could be Top 10 picks, but fall for various reasons. Most of the players who should be available at 16 talent-wise don't seem like the kinds of guys the Cubs would normally take. So, I think going for a falling player might be a workable strategy. That could change between now and the draft, though.

 

As for the budget, Tom Ricketts talked a whole lot about the importance of scouting and player development when his family took over. Someone told me he sent something out to season ticket holders mentioning they increased the budget for those two things, but I haven't seen confirmation of it. His rhetoric suggests the money should be there.

 

That said, I hesitate to go so far as to say the Cubs will hand out record bonuses for their first three picks. In any case, aside from the HS guys who will fall because of college commitments, I don't see players with huge signing bonuses like Harper, Machado, or Taillon making it to the Cubs at 16.

 

As far as positons go, I honestly don't think the Cubs will take a MI early on this draft. I understand BPA and all, but we are loaded at this point and it's honestly going to be hard to move up for some guys. I guess a HS guy is possible, but a college MI would be blocked just about everywhere you look right now.

 

I would LIKE to see us take a power arm, a high upside OFer, and maybe either a C or another arm in the top 3 rounds, assuming we see guys on the board who fall into where we pick and aren't reaches......

 

I'm inclined to agree with Raisin on this point. Even with Starlin Castro, Hak-Ju Lee, Logan Watkins, Ryan Flaherty, Darwin Barney, and heaven knows how many guys down in EXST right now who could play SS or 2B effectively, I don't think that would be something that would cause the Cubs to shy away since they can always move guys to 2B, 3B, or the OF. Plus, you never know what will happen with injuries and development.

 

As for what you would like to see, I think that would be workable for this team. My general inclination right now is to look at college OFs with high ceilings and college arms who can bring heat.

 

Whats the word on AJ Cole? I've read he may fall to the middle of the first round.

 

Cole is the only HS player on my list I'd give serious consideration to at 16 who should be available at 16. I think he makes a lot more sense for the Cubs than Whitson, especially since he has a higher ceiling and a decent amount of projection remaining. He's making a very strong case for himself as the second best HS arm in the draft behind Taillon, so it's possible he might not make it to the Cubs...but for now, I think he'll be there.

[Guest]

I would love it if Chris Sale fell to 16. He's the ideal Wilken pitcher - deep repertoire, athletic pitcher. He goes to the same school that produced Casey Coleman.

 

I would also like to see Nick Castallanos if he falls (given his potential bonus demands). The Cubs severely lack power on the farm and he's the best power hitter in the draft.

[Outshined_One]

I just posted a poll on non-HS players who could fall to #16 due to signability concerns (and other reasons). Any input would be welcome!

 

Link

[Outshined_One]

Latest update was just posted, asking about HS players who could be options for the Cubs. Link

[jame.gumb]

To me, it seems like Wilken is looking for the next Alex Rios, Michael Young and Chris Carpenter. Those seem to be his favorite types of players. Athletic up-the-middle position players (Brett Jackson) and big pitchers (Cashner).

 

I could see Wilken liking Brandon Workman as much as Brett Eibner.

[UK1679666180]

Of the 5 you have listed I'd put them in this order...

 

Colon

Choice

Harvey

Eibner

Too much risk with Ranaudo.

 

 

How about throwing some HS names in your hat, I know Wilken likes the college route but let me enjoy some names.

[Outshined_One]

Of the 5 you have listed I'd put them in this order...

 

Colon

Choice

Harvey

Eibner

Too much risk with Ranaudo.

 

 

How about throwing some HS names in your hat, I know Wilken likes the college route but let me enjoy some names.

 

The HS players in my hat for #16 are fairly limited. Justin O'Connor's name jumps out at me, but I'm also thinking Dylan Covey, AJ Cole, and Yordy Cabrera could all be possibilities. In the second and third round, Tony Wolters, Matt Lipka, Junior DeShields, Aaron Shipman, Ryne Stenak, Drew Cisco, and Cam Bedrosian are all on my list for those picks. It's difficult for me to know what HS players the Cubs like since there aren't a whole lot of previous picks to guide me.

 

My Top 5 looks something like this right now...

 

1) Brett Eibner - I like him better as a pitcher, but if he's a hitter, he's still intriguing

2) Kolbrin Vitek - From what I've read, his bat should play anywhere, even if he has to move to the OF

3) Brandon Workman - He's a big conference name with a plus breaking pitch and a pretty good FB

4) Justin O'Connor - He's athletic, a really good bat, and supposedly signable

5) Anthony Ranaudo - I just can't shake him; the LSU connection plus being a big-bodied power pitcher just seems to fit

 

I don't see Michael Choice making it to #16 any more. Matt Harvey's been all over the place from what I've read, although I'm still considering him. Christian Colon represents a safe bat, but I'm unsure if he's got the kinds of tools and upside the Cubs like in early draft picks.

 

In addition to Harvey and the aforementioned HS players, Asher Wojciechowski, Gary Brown, Ryan LaMarre, and maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe James Paxton are guys I could see as options at #16. Apparently the Cubs have been linked with Wimmer...but, eh. I've seen him pitch on the Big Ten Network and I was underwhelmed.

[UK1679666180]

Of those Top 5.

 

I would have Workman #1, although I'm not too high on his mechanics.

Eibner #2

O'Connor #3

Vitek #4

[Outshined_One]

Of those Top 5.

 

I would have Workman #1, although I'm not too high on his mechanics.

Eibner #2

O'Connor #3

Vitek #4

 

Just curious, but why do you have Vitek below those three?

[UK1679666180]

I don't think he has the defense to stick at 3B and will likely end up in RF. His bat isn't as strong as O'Connor's versitility to pitch, catch, or play 3B at the next level although if the choice was between the two, I wouldn't complain either way.

[Outshined_One]

Alright, thanks!

[UK1679666180]

(Just to elaborate) If I was to take a corner OF'er, which I think Vitek will likely end up or be a below avg. 3B, I have Choice, J. Sale (who I really like), Brentz higher than him.

 

I would rate him above Austin Wilson though.

[Outshined_One]

MOD #3

[Outshined_One]

Here are the draft results:

 

1st Round

Supplemental 1st

2nd Round

3rd Round

Unofficial 4th Round

 

Picks

 

1.16 Justin O’Connor, C, Cowan HS, Muncie, Ind.

2.15 Mike Kvasnicka, C/OF, University of Minnesota

3.15 Burch Smith, RHP, Howard (Texas) JC

4.15 Jordan Cooper, RHP, Wichita State (Unofficial)

 

It's worth noting that some people are going for realism, some people are going by their own boards, and some people...well, I'm not quite sure what they're doing, haha. The fourth round was unofficial and a bunch of people had left, plus few of us had done much prep work beyond the third round, so it was a bit strange at times.

[Outshined_One]

1.16 C Justin O’Connor

 

I’ve been back and forth on #16 ever since getting a director spot. The Cubs have been notorious for shying away from prep players ever since Tim Wilken took over, as they have only drafted two HS players in the first three rounds during his tenure (3B Josh Vitters and LHP Austin Kirk). But this was just a strange year. I was hoping OF Michael Choice or 2B/OF Kolbrin Viten would fall, but that wasn’t in the cards. So, this pick was basically between O’Connor, Workman, and Eibner. I don’t like the idea of drafting Eibner as a hitter this high, so he was out. I like a lot about Workman, but after getting a good look at his mechanics on Youtube, I just couldn’t pull the trigger. The Cubs have been linked to O’Connor for awhile now and I like his potential behind the dish and at the plate, so he was the logical pick.

 

2.15 C/OF Mike Kvasnicka

 

He wasn’t even on my board coming into the second round. I expected him to be gone in the bottom half of the first round. When my pick came around, it was between him, SS Derek Dietrich, OF Austin Wates, and C Micah Gibbs. I’d have been torn between Dietrich and Wates (I like Wates’ potential at the plate better); I don’t like Gibbs a lot, but the Cubs have incredibly strong connections with LSU. Kvasnicka offered major league bloodlines, reasonably good switch hitting ability, and a good defensive catcher behind the dish. That made sense for the Cubs. I couldn’t pass on him for those reasons.

 

3.15 RHP Burch Smith

 

I was talking with a friend of mine online during the draft. He works for a low level baseball agency, representing guys who mostly figure to be drafted in later rounds. Burch Smith was a name he recommended to me, especially since the Cubs have reportedly been keeping a close eye on him. His profile seemed quite tantalizing, as he has some projection remaining but has come along nicely. The Cubs are fine with taking JUCO guys, so that was not an issue for me. I also gave strong consideration to OF Tyler Holt and OF Todd Cunningham here.

 

4.15 RHP Jordan Cooper

 

This was just a pure guess on my part. I’ve never seen him before, I didn’t do any research on him, and I only read his profile on BA’s website shortly before the 4th round began. He seemed to fit, so I figured, why not?

 

Overall, I like to think this draft was pretty strong and also reasonably realistic for the Cubs. Following the fourth round, I’d look to take the Ricketts family up on their offer of expanding the draft budget by targeting guys who fell because of signability concerns. I’d try and snag a few guys who ask for six figure bonuses and attempt to pry HS and JUCO guys away from strong commitments. The farm system could use a boost with some high ceiling guys in the lower levels; it seems like this would be a good year to do that.

[Guest]

Burch Smith also goes to the same JC as 2009 12th rounder Runey Davis.

 

I like Kvasnicka but doubt he'll be available that late. Dietrich sounds like your classic Wilken 2nd/3rd rounder MIF from a power school (Tony Thomas, Ryan Flaherty, DJ LeMahieu).

[Tony Thomas]

3.15 RHP Burch Smith

 

I was talking with a friend of mine online during the draft. He works for a low level baseball agency, representing guys who mostly figure to be drafted in later rounds. Burch Smith was a name he recommended to me, especially since the Cubs have reportedly been keeping a close eye on him. His profile seemed quite tantalizing, as he has some projection remaining but has come along nicely. The Cubs are fine with taking JUCO guys, so that was not an issue for me. I also gave strong consideration to OF Tyler Holt and OF Todd Cunningham here.

I was just reading Cunningham's profile on the mlb website and he seems like he could have good value in the 3rd. He looks and sounds like an AJ Pollock type, even though I wouldn't want that type of player with the first pick.

[davell]

I'm surprised Kvasnicka was still there in the 2nd for you. I'd find it hard to pass on him too. I wish everyone had done the same thing strategy-wise. I liked the fact you went with what were Wilken-type picks. Some of the guys were pretty "out there" with what they were doing. Smith does seem like a solid 3rdish rounder too.