2010 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection Committee

[bukie]

UAB?? That can't be right. Their profile is awful.

UAB was over .500 against the top 100, which is more than can be said for several of these bubble teams.

[bukie]

Results in:

 

Top 4 overall:

1. Kansas

2. Syracuse

3. Kentucky

4. Duke

 

It was actually a pretty clear top 4, and there was a pretty clear #5 also. After that it was a mess, with 6 teams between 1 and 2 points average (I calculated using 8 for #1 down to 1 for #8). 11 total teams in 10 top 8 lists, though, is pretty tame.

 

8 teams now off the bubble and in the at-large pool:

1. Oklahoma State

2. Florida State

3. Wake Forest

4. Richmond

5. Louisville

6. Marquette

7. Notre Dame

8. Florida

 

There were actually 28 teams overall that made it on at least one list (keeping in mind that SSR and I can't vote Illinois and Andy can't vote ND). There were teams that made some people's bubble list that made other people's bottom 8. After those 8, we have the minimum 65 for the tournament, assuming a team steals a bid from every multi bid league from here on out (possible 7). For the interest of what might be, the next 7 in order: Virginia Tech, UTEP, California, Georgia Tech, UNLV, Illinois, Utah State.

 

8 teams now off the board completely:

Lipscomb

Stony Brook

Troy

Coastal Carolina

William and Mary

Charlotte

Connecticut

Saint Louis

[bukie]

Now, for the next step:

 

1 - Top 16 teams left from the at large and auto bid pools (i.e. don't forget Butler is there). We'll continue putting the S-Curve together from the top (starting tomorrow we'll do top and bottom).

2 - Bottom 8 teams to eliminate from consideration - We have 20 teams left and a maximum of 7 spots available. We can probably pare that by 4 to 8 to get down to a manageable number.

3 - Start the bracket process, in discussion today. What regions do we place the 4 1-seeds in? Here are the regional sites: East - Syracuse, NY (NOTE: Syracuse CANNOT be here); Midwest - St. Louis, MO; South - Houston, TX; West - Salt Lake City, UT.

[bukie]

Also, feel free to make note of any games involving teams in consideration or the at-large pool.

 

Like Louisville losing last night to Cincy.

[Vanilla Ice]

Can't 10 of those teams make it in? UTEP, Utah State, and California could win their conference tournaments which would open up spots.

[Vanilla Ice]

3 - Start the bracket process, in discussion today. What regions do we place the 4 1-seeds in? Here are the regional sites: East - Syracuse, NY (NOTE: Syracuse CANNOT be here); Midwest - St. Louis, MO; South - Houston, TX; West - Salt Lake City, UT.

I would say Kansas definitely gets St. Louis and Kentucky gets Syracuse. I'm not sure about the other two, though.

[bukie]

Can't 10 of those teams make it in? UTEP, Utah State, and California could win their conference tournaments which would open up spots.

Technically that's true, yes. The 7 I came up with was using just the teams we know are in right now. :)

[bukie]

3 - Start the bracket process, in discussion today. What regions do we place the 4 1-seeds in? Here are the regional sites: East - Syracuse, NY (NOTE: Syracuse CANNOT be here); Midwest - St. Louis, MO; South - Houston, TX; West - Salt Lake City, UT.

I would say Kansas definitely gets St. Louis and Kentucky gets Syracuse. I'm not sure about the other two, though.

I'd say Kansas to St. Louis is a no-brainer. What's closer to Kentucky, Syracuse or Houston? And what's closer to Syracuse, Houston or Salt Lake City?

[NCCubFan]

What's closer to Kentucky, Syracuse or Houston?

Syracuse, by a few hundred miles.

[bukie]

As the google drives:

 

Syracuse, NY to Houston, TX : ~1600 miles

Syracuse, NY to Salt Lake City, UT: ~2000 miles

 

Lexington, KY to Syracuse, NY: ~660 miles

Lexington, KY to Houston, TX: ~990 miles

 

So, since Syracuse is higher on the S-Curve than Kentucky, and Kentucky is higher than Duke, I'd propose Syracuse to the South bracket, Kentucky East, Duke West.

 

Then, Midwest and West brackets would match up together in the Final Four, and South and East would match up together.

[Old Style]

Now, for the next step:

 

1 - Top 16 teams left from the at large and auto bid pools (i.e. don't forget Butler is there). We'll continue putting the S-Curve together from the top (starting tomorrow we'll do top and bottom).

2 - Bottom 8 teams to eliminate from consideration - We have 20 teams left and a maximum of 7 spots available. We can probably pare that by 4 to 8 to get down to a manageable number.

Any chance you can give us the updated list of teams still being considered?

[bukie]

What's gotten into Notre Dame lately? They're playing like a Big Ten team. :)

[bukie]

Now, for the next step:

 

1 - Top 16 teams left from the at large and auto bid pools (i.e. don't forget Butler is there). We'll continue putting the S-Curve together from the top (starting tomorrow we'll do top and bottom).

2 - Bottom 8 teams to eliminate from consideration - We have 20 teams left and a maximum of 7 spots available. We can probably pare that by 4 to 8 to get down to a manageable number.

Any chance you can give us the updated list of teams still being considered?

Sure, I updated the first post, but I'll post them here too:

 

At-large pool (30 teams):

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baylor            24  6    5-3    2-1    8-2     3-0  5-0  37   228   9-5
BYU               28  4    0-1    5-3    3-0    10-0  9-0 125   188  13-3
Clemson           21  9    4-4    1-3    6-2     3-0  7-0  15   245   7-7
Florida           20 11    2-4    2-4    7-2     4-0  5-1  58   215   7-7
Florida State     22  8    1-6    4-1    8-1     3-0  6-0  24   222   9-5
Georgetown        20  9    3-5    4-2    5-1     4-1  3-0   2    63   8-5
Gonzaga           26  6    1-2    1-1    9-1     4-1 11-1 111    40  12-5
Kansas State      24  6    5-3    2-2    8-1     4-0  4-0   6    96  11-3
Louisville        20 11    2-5    1-2    6-2     7-2  3-0  23   176   5-7
Marquette         20 10    2-6    1-2    8-1     3-1  6-0  51   294   7-6
Maryland          23  7    4-4    2-1    7-1     3-1  6-0  27   258   8-6
Michigan State    24  7    2-4    2-1    9-2     7-0  4-0  34   170   9-5
Missouri          22  9    2-5    2-2    9-1     1-1  8-0  56   300   6-7
New Mexico        28  3    4-0    3-2    1-0    11-1  9-0  98   129  11-2
Notre Dame        21 10    3-2    1-1    6-5     5-2  6-0  70   342   4-7
Ohio State        24  7    5-4    1-1    6-2     7-0  5-0  48   231   7-6
Oklahoma State    21  9    4-5    0-0    5-4     8-0  4-0  49   298   6-8
Pittsburgh        24  7    4-3    1-1    8-2     7-1  3-0  33   221   7-6
Purdue            26  4    4-3    4-0    6-1     8-0  4-0  31   177  12-2
Richmond          24  7    1-1    4-1    3-3     9-2  7-0  85    92  10-6
Temple            26  5    2-2    2-1    6-1    10-1  6-0  27   258   8-6
Tennessee         23  7    2-2    3-3    7-2     6-0  5-0  45   130   8-6
Texas             23  8    2-6    3-0    9-2     4-0  5-0  39   204   8-6
Texas A&M         22  8    4-5    2-3    7-0     4-0  4-0  11   140   7-7
Vanderbilt        23  7    1-2    6-0    8-4     5-1  2-0  29    94   9-5
Villanova         24  6    5-3    4-2    5-1     6-0  4-0   8   163  12-4
Wake Forest       19  9    3-3    2-2    7-3     1-1  6-0   9   162   6-7
West Virginia     24  6    5-3    3-2    8-1     6-0  2-0   1    39  12-4
Wisconsin         23  7    6-3    0-1    8-2     5-1  4-0  22   120   7-6
Xavier            23  7    0-4    3-3    4-0    11-0  5-0  61    19   8-7

 

Still under consideration for zero to 7 (10 including teams on this list) spots (20 teams):

Team               W  L  top25  26-50 51-100 101-200 200+ SOS NCSOS   R+N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arizona State     22  9    0-5    2-1    2-2    12-1  6-0  64   161   6-6
California        21  9    0-3    3-2    4-2    13-2  1-0  20    10   6-8
Cincinnati        17 14    1-6    2-3    4-5     5-0  4-0  70   149  5-10
Dayton            20 11    1-3    2-3    0-3    13-2  4-0  74    78   5-9
Georgia Tech      19 11    2-5    1-3    6-3     3-0  6-0  12   161   5-9
Illinois          18 13    3-7    1-1    5-3     6-2  3-0  13   119   6-9
Memphis           23  8    0-2    0-2    8-2     4-2 11-0 133   248   7-5
Minnesota         18 12    3-6    0-0    4-5     6-1  5-0  47   246   4-9
Mississippi       21  9    1-3    1-3    8-3     4-0  6-0  69   196   9-5
Mississippi State 21 10    0-1    3-4    7-5     5-2  6-0  86   256   9-7
Rhode Island      22  8    0-1    2-3    3-2    13-2  4-0  89    82   9-6
San Diego State   22  8    0-2    2-3    1-0     9-1  8-1  83   107   8-7
Seton Hall        19 11    0-6    3-3    5-2     5-0  6-0  52   323   6-7
South Florida     20 12    1-5    1-3    7-3     6-1  5-0  35   212   9-8
UAB               23  7    1-0    0-4    8-3     6-0  8-0  99   145  11-4
UNLV              23  7    1-2    3-2    2-1     7-2  9-0  97   137   9-4
Utah State        25  6    1-0    0-1    4-1    12-4  7-0 154   171   8-5
UTEP              24  5    0-1    1-1    9-2     4-1 10-0 145   299   9-3
Virginia Tech     23  7    1-3    2-1   10-3     2-0  8-0  66   330   8-6
Washington        21  9    2-2    1-1    3-4    14-2  1-0  57   125   4-7

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd like to pre-emptively argue that Louisville isn't very good. Their entire resume is beating Syracuse twice. Granted, those are monster wins, but beyond that they have 1 win over a tourney team against ND.(Cincy is the only other team they've beaten with a chance) Coupled with that are losses at home to bad Charlotte(BY 22!), and worse Western Carolina.

[bukie]

I'd like to pre-emptively argue that Louisville isn't very good. Their entire resume is beating Syracuse twice. Granted, those are monster wins, but beyond that they have 1 win over a tourney team against ND.(Cincy is the only other team they've beaten with a chance) Coupled with that are losses at home to bad Charlotte(BY 22!), and worse Western Carolina.

Yeah, they do have that terrible home loss, and played very few games away from home on the year (finished 5-8 overall including last night's game). They also finished 9-10 against the top 100. However, that road win at Syracuse is undoubtedly the best win of any of the teams in consideration, and considering how weak the bubble is I think they're safe. I initially had them a lot lower on my list, but there are a lot of BAD teams around the bubble right now, so they are the lesser of many evils.

[Andy]

As the google drives:

 

Syracuse, NY to Houston, TX : ~1600 miles

Syracuse, NY to Salt Lake City, UT: ~2000 miles

 

Lexington, KY to Syracuse, NY: ~660 miles

Lexington, KY to Houston, TX: ~990 miles

 

So, since Syracuse is higher on the S-Curve than Kentucky, and Kentucky is higher than Duke, I'd propose Syracuse to the South bracket, Kentucky East, Duke West.

 

Then, Midwest and West brackets would match up together in the Final Four, and South and East would match up together.

I endorse that 1-seed placement. Obviously it could change pending conference tourney results.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd like to pre-emptively argue that Louisville isn't very good. Their entire resume is beating Syracuse twice. Granted, those are monster wins, but beyond that they have 1 win over a tourney team against ND.(Cincy is the only other team they've beaten with a chance) Coupled with that are losses at home to bad Charlotte(BY 22!), and worse Western Carolina.

Yeah, they do have that terrible home loss, and played very few games away from home on the year (finished 5-8 overall including last night's game). They also finished 9-10 against the top 100. However, that road win at Syracuse is undoubtedly the best win of any of the teams in consideration, and considering how weak the bubble is I think they're safe. I initially had them a lot lower on my list, but there are a lot of BAD teams around the bubble right now, so they are the lesser of many evils.

 

Yep, (in retrospect I had them too low) just wanted to preemptively argue against anyone seeing those wins over Cuse and putting them as a 5 seed or something. Not that I have a clue who deserves a 5 seed out of this lot.

[Andy]

If Georgetown can finish this upset, how is Syracuse's shot at a 1 seed affected, if at all?

[bukie]

If Georgetown can finish this upset, how is Syracuse's shot at a 1 seed affected, if at all?

I think Syracuse has played the last 2 games like they don't matter, because they've got a 1 seed locked up. If anything, I don't think it should affect Georgetown and Louisville much.

[Old Style]

What if WVU runs the table and wins the Big East tourney. Since they were already a 2, do they jump up and snag a 1 pushing 'Cuse down to a 2? I know G'town is a good team, but isn't that two losses in a row for Syracuse?

[Andy]

What if WVU runs the table and wins the Big East tourney. Since they were already a 2, do they jump up and snag a 1 pushing 'Cuse down to a 2? I know G'town is a good team, but isn't that two losses in a row for Syracuse?

I think WVU would take Duke's 1 seed if it came to that, but there's certainly an argument to be made for taking Cuse's.

[bukie]

I just think Syracuse was so far ahead of even a team like WVU that they knew 2 games ago they were locked into a 1 seed. They played both the second half of the last Louisville game and this conference tournament game after the injury as if they just wanted to coast and stay healthy. Really, the only thing to consider for me is if their profile is still better than Kentucky or Duke.

[Exile on Waveland]

Syracuse is still a No. 1 seed. Easy.

[bukie]

Another not good moment for a bubble team: Memphis trailing Houston in the CUSA quarters with 5 mins to play. There may not be anyone at-large worthy out of that conference either.

[Vanilla Ice]

Another not good moment for a bubble team: Memphis trailing Houston in the CUSA quarters with 5 mins to play. There may not be anyone at-large worthy out of that conference either.

I still think UTEP deserves one