Theriot on Castro

[jersey cubs fan]

Well sure, but on the flip side, a .730+ OPS is possible as well. I'm not saying Theriot will definitely be better than Castro, I'm saying that Castro being as good as Theriot is far from a guarantee. In fact, the likelihood is that Theriot will be the superior offensive player.

 

Is that a certainty? Of course not. But my post is in response to the idea that Castro is guaranteed to be as good or better than Theriot and that's not accurate.

 

But the likelihood is that the difference won't mean much. If one guy was going to be 710 and the other 690, what's the real difference? We're not talking about a guy who has a long established track record of quality performance. I think the upside potential for Theriot is almost nil, he surprised with one good year and has otherwise been practically a non-entity.

[dew1679666265]

Well sure, but on the flip side, a .730+ OPS is possible as well. I'm not saying Theriot will definitely be better than Castro, I'm saying that Castro being as good as Theriot is far from a guarantee. In fact, the likelihood is that Theriot will be the superior offensive player.

 

Is that a certainty? Of course not. But my post is in response to the idea that Castro is guaranteed to be as good or better than Theriot and that's not accurate.

 

But the likelihood is that the difference won't mean much. If one guy was going to be 710 and the other 690, what's the real difference? We're not talking about a guy who has a long established track record of quality performance. I think the upside potential for Theriot is almost nil, he surprised with one good year and has otherwise been practically a non-entity.

 

There may not be a huge difference, but the point remains that Theriot is likely to be better (even if only slightly) than Castro. I don't quite get what you're arguing here.

[Guest]

Some thoughts on Castro:

 

1) I'm not sure he's the guy you worry about this with, but holding him in the minors for a while pushes back his FA by a year

2) He could easily OPS under .700 this year - he was only at .734 in the minors last year and is likely to have a big adjustment to major league pitching if the Cubs are that aggressive

3) His defensive potential is greater than Theriot's, but he still makes some errors that will drive Lou nuts. He could use more time in the minor to tighten that up some more

[jersey cubs fan]

There may not be a huge difference, but the point remains that Theriot is likely to be better (even if only slightly) than Castro. I don't quite get what you're arguing here.

 

The point is that while he might be a better bet to outperform, it's only by a slight margin. I'm in no hurry with Castro, but you probably won't actually lose anything by making the move now.

[Guest]

Some thoughts on Castro:

 

1) I'm not sure he's the guy you worry about this with, but holding him in the minors for a while pushes back his FA by a year

2) He could easily OPS under .700 this year - he was only at .734 in the minors last year and is likely to have a big adjustment to major league pitching if the Cubs are that aggressive

3) His defensive potential is greater than Theriot's, but he still makes some errors that will drive Lou nuts. He could use more time in the minor to tighten that up some more

 

He's also only played 30 games above A-Ball and doesn't turn 20 til near Opening Day. Unless he's absolutely destroying pitchers, he needs more MiLB time.

[A-Cal]

Some thoughts on Castro:

 

1) I'm not sure he's the guy you worry about this with, but holding him in the minors for a while pushes back his FA by a year

2) He could easily OPS under .700 this year - he was only at .734 in the minors last year and is likely to have a big adjustment to major league pitching if the Cubs are that aggressive

3) His defensive potential is greater than Theriot's, but he still makes some errors that will drive Lou nuts. He could use more time in the minor to tighten that up some more

 

He's also only played 30 games above A-Ball and doesn't turn 20 til near Opening Day. Unless he's absolutely destroying pitchers, he needs more MiLB time.

 

As excited as I am about Castro, I completely agree. Hold him down unless something goes hay-wire with the second base platoon. At that point, if Castro is rocking in the minors, why not give him a shot and bump Theriot to second?

[Guest]

For Castro's sake, I hope he's at AA for at least half this season.

[dew1679666265]

There may not be a huge difference, but the point remains that Theriot is likely to be better (even if only slightly) than Castro. I don't quite get what you're arguing here.

 

The point is that while he might be a better bet to outperform, it's only by a slight margin. I'm in no hurry with Castro, but you probably won't actually lose anything by making the move now.

 

You'll lose some offensively and potentially a whole lot. As Tim pointed out, Castro only OPS'd .734 in A and AA last year. It's quite a stretch to say he'd be anyway near that good this year in the majors. Very sub-.700 is a possibility for Castro.

 

Castro has way, way, way more upside, Theriot is likely to be better now.

[jersey cubs fan]

Some thoughts on Castro:

 

1) I'm not sure he's the guy you worry about this with, but holding him in the minors for a while pushes back his FA by a year

2) He could easily OPS under .700 this year - he was only at .734 in the minors last year and is likely to have a big adjustment to major league pitching if the Cubs are that aggressive

3) His defensive potential is greater than Theriot's, but he still makes some errors that will drive Lou nuts. He could use more time in the minor to tighten that up some more

 

He's also only played 30 games above A-Ball and doesn't turn 20 til near Opening Day. Unless he's absolutely destroying pitchers, he needs more MiLB time.

 

As excited as I am about Castro, I completely agree. Hold him down unless something goes hay-wire with the second base platoon. At that point, if Castro is rocking in the minors, why not give him a shot and bump Theriot to second?

 

Yes, it has to be about when he's definitely ready, and I have no problem in delaying a guy's clock either.

[jersey cubs fan]

There may not be a huge difference, but the point remains that Theriot is likely to be better (even if only slightly) than Castro. I don't quite get what you're arguing here.

 

The point is that while he might be a better bet to outperform, it's only by a slight margin. I'm in no hurry with Castro, but you probably won't actually lose anything by making the move now.

 

You'll lose some offensively and potentially a whole lot. As Tim pointed out, Castro only OPS'd .734 in A and AA last year. It's quite a stretch to say he'd be anyway near that good this year in the majors. Very sub-.700 is a possibility for Castro.

 

Castro has way, way, way more upside, Theriot is likely to be better now.

 

And again, Theriot is no lock to surpass 700 himself, and is probably going to be very low anyway. His better would be minimal.

[indycub]

I just don't see the harm in starting him in a year where (lets be honest here) we will not be competing for the division. A full year starting at SS at 20 years old would be as much experience as he could possibly get. I'm all for playing experience. If he makes mistakes now, fine. He can get them out of his system before we need him to compete for the pennant. By the time he is fine-tuned and shining, he will be 22 or 23 years old.

[dew1679666265]

I just don't see the harm in starting him in a year where (lets be honest here) we will not be competing for the division. A full year starting at SS at 20 years old would be as much experience as he could possibly get. I'm all for playing experience. If he makes mistakes now, fine. He can get them out of his system before we need him to compete for the pennant. By the time he is fine-tuned and shining, he will be 22 or 23 years old.

 

I see no reason to think we can't compete for the division. We did for a good portion of the year last year without Aramis. This team will be in it at least until the ASB if not longer than that and I think they can win the division.

 

Plus, expectations are that we'll compete, so it's not like he'll be in a no-pressure situation. If he's the starting shortstop at 20 years old in a year that the majority of fans expect us to compete, all eyes will be on him to see what he can do and Lou won't have much patience with him. The best thing to do is to, at least, begin him in the minors this year.

[dew1679666265]

There may not be a huge difference, but the point remains that Theriot is likely to be better (even if only slightly) than Castro. I don't quite get what you're arguing here.

 

The point is that while he might be a better bet to outperform, it's only by a slight margin. I'm in no hurry with Castro, but you probably won't actually lose anything by making the move now.

 

You'll lose some offensively and potentially a whole lot. As Tim pointed out, Castro only OPS'd .734 in A and AA last year. It's quite a stretch to say he'd be anyway near that good this year in the majors. Very sub-.700 is a possibility for Castro.

 

Castro has way, way, way more upside, Theriot is likely to be better now.

 

And again, Theriot is no lock to surpass 700 himself, and is probably going to be very low anyway. His better would be minimal.

 

But he'll likely still be better. And that's my point. The original statement was that Castro was guaranteed to be as good or better than Theriot. I countered that by saying that Theriot was likely to be better than Castro, even if marginally. You have come back and said that Theriot might be better than Castro, but not likely by a lot.

 

I don't see the disagreement between us.

[indycub]

Castro + priceless development time > Ryan Theriot's best MLB season. Even if he plays slightly better than Castro would (which is completely debatable), I would much rather take Castro with all development and playing time included. Even if Theriot has the best season of his MLB Career. Considering we have a future superstar in the minors, I just see another year of an aging mediocre shortstop as a complete waste of time. Especially when it's inevitable that Castro will be the opening day starter in 2011.

[Guest]

Castro + priceless development time > Ryan Theriot's best MLB season. Even if he plays slightly better than Castro would (which is completely debatable), I would much rather take Castro with all development and playing time included. Even if Theriot has the best season of his MLB Career. Considering we have a future superstar in the minors, I just see another year of an aging mediocre shortstop as a complete waste of time. Especially when it's inevitable that Castro will be the opening day starter in 2011.

If you want development time, he's better served in the minors at the moment.

 

And there's absolutely no reason why we can't compete for the division this year.

[A-Cal]

Castro + priceless development time > Ryan Theriot's best MLB season. Even if he plays slightly better than Castro would (which is completely debatable), I would much rather take Castro with all development and playing time included. Even if Theriot has the best season of his MLB Career. Considering we have a future superstar in the minors, I just see another year of an aging mediocre shortstop as a complete waste of time. Especially when it's inevitable that Castro will be the opening day starter in 2011.

If you want development time, he's better served in the minors at the moment.

 

And there's absolutely no reason why we can't compete for the division this year.

 

I kind of like how many folks are counting us out. The starting rotation is really my only concern, but if everything breaks just right...

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

For Castro's sake, I hope he's at AA for at least half this season.

 

Me too....if I only because I want to see him when the Smokies come to Mississippi.

[indycub]

I'm not completely counting us out I just don't have any faith in the rotation to get it done. But I'm really optimistic about what Rudy can do. If the pitching is on, we have a great shot at the pennant. But that is a huge if.

[dew1679666265]

Castro + priceless development time > Ryan Theriot's best MLB season.

 

Keep in mind that he's had a strong tendency to make errors in the minors. If he does that in Chicago and Lou gets pissed at him, he could be losing development time by sitting on the bench.

[KaiserCesar]

I think the Castro over Theriot argument is incredibly flawed. To have it make sense, you need to take a 'bad case' scenario for Theriot and a 'good case' for Castro without considering the chances that Theriot has a .740 OPS or Castro has a .600 OPS with 35 errors. Defensive tools do not equal great defensive play right away. It's a huge statistical bias to only acknowledge one player's downside and only one's upside. Play Castro in AA so he can work on his defense, develop power, and actually get more than 150 at bats above A ball. Sure, if he's hitting .325 with some pop in the middle of the summer, we can talk about promotion, but replacing Theriot is an incredibly rushed approach that could backfire without huge upside.

[Roast]

I think the Castro over Theriot argument is incredibly flawed. To have it make sense, you need to take a 'bad case' scenario for Theriot and a 'good case' for Castro without considering the chances that Theriot has a .740 OPS or Castro has a .600 OPS with 35 errors. Defensive tools do not equal great defensive play right away. It's a huge statistical bias to only acknowledge one player's downside and only one's upside. Play Castro in AA so he can work on his defense, develop power, and actually get more than 150 at bats above A ball. Sure, if he's hitting .325 with some pop in the middle of the summer, we can talk about promotion, but replacing Theriot is an incredibly rushed approach that could backfire without huge upside.

 

I agree with this.

[Backtobanks]

Another important point is that bringing Castro up too soon could destroy his confidence and development. I'm sure that when the people in charge decide he's ready, he will be brought up especially since Hendry has basically told Theriot the same thing.

[erik316wttn]

For Castro's sake, I hope he's at AA for at least half this season.

 

For everyone's sake, really. Hopefully valuable lessons were learned from the whole Corey Patterson debacle that ensure the same mistakes will never be made again.

[NCCubFan]

For Castro's sake, I hope he's at AA for at least half this season.

 

Me too....if I only because I want to see him when the Smokies come to Mississippi.

And likewise I want to see him when the Smokies come to Carolina.

[Guancous]

Castro + priceless development time > Ryan Theriot's best MLB season. Even if he plays slightly better than Castro would (which is completely debatable), I would much rather take Castro with all development and playing time included. Even if Theriot has the best season of his MLB Career. Considering we have a future superstar in the minors, I just see another year of an aging mediocre shortstop as a complete waste of time. Especially when it's inevitable that Castro will be the opening day starter in 2011.

If you want development time, he's better served in the minors at the moment.

 

And there's absolutely no reason why we can't compete for the division this year.

 

I kind of like how many folks are counting us out. The starting rotation is really my only concern, but if everything breaks just right...

 

The Cubs are by no means locks for the playoffs. I can't see a situation where they're 20 games out at the All-Star break either. The Cardinals need a ton of luck too. They're far less intimidating if Carpenter goes down to injury.